Advice on best game

Avatar73

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I'm looking to meet WR of 2500.

No BJ, Baccarat, or VP. Or low-risk wagers in roulette and craps.

So,

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Roulette, single zero, half bet returned on zero, HE = 1.352% (betting red)

Craps, bet DONT PASS and take the full 1x odds, HE = 0.682%

Three Card Poker, EoR = 2.01%

Pai Gow Poker, HE = 2.7% or something.

and a couple of other games, either with no quantifiable strategy, or highe HE. Or Hi-Lo games.
===============

So, it seems dont pass in craps with full odds, maybe 3 or 5 units initial bet, or 3card poker, 5 unit ante, may be the best bet? Or will the dont pass bet not count in craps, being deemed "Low risk"? I thought low risk was eg betting pass and dont pass.

Note that the bonus is only given AFTER WR, which sometimes affects game choice.
 

aka23

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So, it seems dont pass in craps with full odds, maybe 3 or 5 units initial bet, or 3card poker, 5 unit ante, may be the best bet? Or will the dont pass bet not count in craps, being deemed "Low risk"? I thought low risk was eg betting pass and dont pass.
I'd get clarification about what is a "low risk" bet. If they mean simultaneous winning and losing bets, then craps don't pass with full odds if the best bet. If they mean all craps is banned (the more typical rules), then playing craps is asking for trouble.

If craps, is not allowed then I'd recommend Pai Gow. While 3CP does have a lower house edge, it has a high variance. In contrast, Pai Gow has the lowest variance of any common casino game. With a typical bet size, you will likely bust on 3CP and will likely complete wagering on Pai Gow. Another alternative is to start wagering on 3CP, then switch to Pai Gow after a big win. This strategy increases overall expected gain and reduces time spent at the cost of an increased risk of busting.

I'm guessing this is Casino-for-me 's monthly?
 

Avatar73

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haha yeah, there's no pulling the wool over your eyes.

PGP is good, I recently did a bonus where there was a house way button, so i did a pound a hand and jus pressed house edge, so it was very quick to sort cards, and even with a big WR didn't take toooooo long. even made 25 playing 2200 or so.

problem with PGP is that to play a decent strategy with no house way button is very time consuming, so you either need a large bet, inducing variance, or... well, a shed load of time.

Also, the point about getting the bonus AFTER WR is that you can't bust... say you lose 100 deposit after wagering 1000 or so, well then the best bet is to put in another 100 and hopefully complete with that, mebbe break even, to end up at 0 overall with the bonus. Tho obv you hope you break even on the initial deposit, thus winning the bonus amount.

I don't get how PGP has a house edge of 2.7% then it is such a good bet. This means you should lose 2.7 units in 100, and 27 units in 1000. So about 60 units in 2500. I understand that you often push, which reduces the variance, but then how much should you expect to lose in 100 in that case? Maybe only 1.6? In which case why isn't the HE 1.6? I understand all the maths, it's just this "phenomenom" that i dont get!
 

aka23

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PGP is not a great bet with a ~2.7% house edge. However, it is better than the alternatives when blackjack, vp, baccarat, roulette, and craps all are not available. The house edge is ~2.7% because you are always player. If you switch between banker and player, like at a B&M casino, then you get a lower house edge closer to what you listed.

You can expect to win ~28.6% of the time, lose ~29.9% of the time, and tie ~41.5% of the time. So with 100 bets, you get...

Expected wins 28.6
Expected losses 29.9

Net gain/loss = 0.95*28.6 - 29.9 = 2.73 out of 100
House Edge = ~2.7%

Pai Gow has a low enough variance that you can increase bet size without much consequence. You still have a lower chance of busting with Pai Gow than 3CP until you reach about 13x larger bets on Pai Gow than 3CP. If Pai Gow is too time consuming, you could start out on 3CP, continue until getting a straight flush or 3 of a kind that brings you to a target gain, then either dramatically reduce your bet size on 3CP or switch to War. I believe War has a house edge of ~2.88% with chartwell rules (I remember them having 6 decks and not giving a sequential tie bonus)... not as low as Pai Gow, but the play is faster.
 

Rettahs

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I would be interested to see how much better Pai Gow would work for grinding out a WR if instead of playing for the win or using optimal stragety if you played for just the tie making the best one hand you can make each time. I always wondered if anyone has analyzed it going for the tie each hand to extend your playing experience (grind out a WR). I haven't played it in awhile but I used to enjoy it a lot.
 

aka23

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hmm, i wagered 2500 on craps, and lost 92 :eek: rubbish!
So craps is allowed? What was your bet and bet size on craps? I believe the lowest house edged bet with Chartwell software (Don't Pass with 2x odds) has a combined house edge of ~0.55%. Note that Chartwell Don't Pass odds are expressed as a proportion of initial bet, rather than win size, like in B&M casinos.
 

Avatar73

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yeah, i thought it was 1x odd at first, so i put 5 on dont pass, but then matched each time with 10 odds.

Feels like a massive sucker bet.... I'm sure i wudve done much better going for pass! Irritating when you keep losing 5 straight off on those 7s. And then when you win odds, you only get your bet back with a little extra, risking more than you win. It didn't have a particularly nice feel to it.......
 

aka23

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yeah, i thought it was 1x odd at first, so i put 5 on dont pass, but then matched each time with 10 odds.

Feels like a massive sucker bet.... I'm sure i wudve done much better going for pass! Irritating when you keep losing 5 straight off on those 7s. And then when you win odds, you only get your bet back with a little extra, risking more than you win. It didn't have a particularly nice feel to it.......

Your results are actually normal. A bet of 5+10 is huge in proportion to a 100 bonus. The standard deviation of a Chartwell combined bet is ~2.29. Over 2500 wagering on a 100 bonus, the 1 SD range of return is -170 to +340. Enter a house edge of 0.55% and standard deviation of 2.29 in the calc at
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to confirm .
 

EasyRhino

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I don't know the casino, but caribbean holdem has a lower house edge of 2.3% ish, which is often useful at RTGs that might exclude most other games.

Also, if you play 3 card poker and ignore the pairplus bet entirely, it dampens the house edge slightly, while also decreasing variance dramatically.

But it sounds like craps, with a TINY pass line bett and HUGE odds, was the best combo.
 

KasinoKing

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I would be interested to see how much better Pai Gow would work for grinding out a WR if instead of playing for the win or using optimal stragety if you played for just the tie making the best one hand you can make each time. I always wondered if anyone has analyzed it going for the tie each hand to extend your playing experience (grind out a WR). I haven't played it in awhile but I used to enjoy it a lot.
That's an interesting point!
I like PaiGow and it's my preferred game for WR rather than Blackjack which takes the pee far too often. :(
But I've never thought about 'playing for the tie'. I wonder if this would have any effect on overall return. I think if it did it would only be a very small percentage, but I would still be interested to know...

KK
 

GrandMaster

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I would be interested to see how much better Pai Gow would work for grinding out a WR if instead of playing for the win or using optimal stragety if you played for just the tie making the best one hand you can make each time. I always wondered if anyone has analyzed it going for the tie each hand to extend your playing experience (grind out a WR). I haven't played it in awhile but I used to enjoy it a lot.
:confused: How do you play for the tie? You extend your playing time by playing the optimal strategy (the one that minimises the house edge).
 

Rettahs

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:confused: How do you play for the tie? You extend your playing time by playing the optimal strategy (the one that minimises the house edge).

I need to test it out so I can explain or maybe KK can explain how it may be possible to extend with ties to grind out a WR on hands you may or may not win but secure a solid tie instead of splitting the hand up. It is more of a wonder than any kind of stragety at this point in my head since I haven't played in awhile.
 

aka23

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I don't know the casino, but caribbean holdem has a lower house edge of 2.3% ish, which is often useful at RTGs that might exclude most other games.

Also, if you play 3 card poker and ignore the pairplus bet entirely, it dampens the house edge slightly, while also decreasing variance dramatically.

But it sounds like craps, with a TINY pass line bett and HUGE odds, was the best combo.
The 3-card Poker Ante & Play bet has a ~50% higher house edge than the pair plus bet. There are several other choices that have both a lower house edge and lower variance than the ante & play bet, such as pai gow poker and war.

I'd rank the game choices as follows:

1. HE = 0.55% -- Craps, combined bet
2. HE = 1.35% -- Roulette, 1:1 bet (Chartwell uses "La Partage" rule)
3. HE = ~2.7% -- Pai Gow
4. HE = 2.88% -- War
5. HE = 2.32% -- 3-Card Poker, Pair Plus
6. HE = 3.16% -- Red Dog
7. HE = 3.37% -- 3-Card Poker, Ante & Play
8. HE = 5.22% -- Stud Poker
9. HE = 4-7%??? -- Slots
10. HE = ~10% -- Hi-Lo (Chartwell uses a poor payout)

Not Allowed -- Blackjack, Baccarat, Video Poker
 
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aka23

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I need to test it out so I can explain or maybe KK can explain how it may be possible to extend with ties to grind out a WR on hands you may or may not win but secure a solid tie instead of splitting the hand up. It is more of a wonder than any kind of stragety at this point in my head since I haven't played in awhile.
It could be useful to identify the hands that are very close calls, then choose the option that has a greater chance of a tie over optimal strategy in such close calls. However, doing this with any precision would be awkward. The more typical approach would be to choose a hand with a high probability of a tie over optimal strategy with a lower probability of a tie and a higher overall EV. Going by feel like this would cost you over time, as sometimes the loss in EV/house edge would be large. For example, you might choose a 80% Tie / 10% Win / 10% Loss over a 40% Win / 30% Loss / 30% Tie, reducing the EV for that hand dramatically.
 

GrandMaster

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The 3-card Poker Ante & Play bet has a ~50% higher house edge than the pair plus bet.
While this is technically true, you should really consider the element of risk: average loss divided by average wager, which is just over 2.01% for the ante and play assuming 1/4/5 pay table, whereas the house edge for the pair plus is 2.32%, assuming 1/4/6/30/40 pay table. Your house edge for craps also includes the odds bet.
 

Avatar73

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cheers!

About PGP.... why is this such a good bet? Ok low variance.
So, is it still ideal to bash it out at 1 unit per hand?

From what you are saying, by increasing bet size, you increase variance, but save time. So....... I am thinking, the best way to obtain the house edge, is to do 1/hand. But if i did say 10/hand, i could make a lot, would probably make the house edge due to low variance, could lose a lot, but would save time? So if time is no problem, 1/hand is the safest/best bet?
 
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