What is a bonus worth?

[kniepm]

If I were to receive a 100% bonus (fully withdrawable after meeting WR's) on a $100 deposit and had to play 10x(D+B) and was able to play a game with a 10% house advantage, I would estimate this bonus is worth $60.

Playthrough (10 x $400) = $4000
Expected losses ($4000 x .10) = $40
Expected withdrawal ($200 - $40) = $160

Do you think I'm looking at this the right way?

How would you calculate the worth of a sticky bonus (non-withdrawable but stays in your account until you loose it) or a phantom bonus (non-withdrawable bonus that disappears when you make your first withdrawal) based on the same WR's and house edge?

Any one have estimates on how much any of the less player-friendly terms effect the value of a bonus?

FTR, I like bonuses, but I haven't seen a new lately that makes it worth depositing at a casino I don't know. (Maybe I'm just getting conservative in my old age.)

Thanks for any thoughts on this.

 

[GrandMaster]

Your arithmetic is wrong, $4000 x 0.10=$400. Did you subconsciously mean 1% house advantage? If so, then your conclusion is correct, assuming that you bet small enough that the probability of busting out is negligible. Oddly enough, if you bet large and increase the chance of going bust, then you also increase the expected value of the bonus slightly.

 

[00ps!]

Put your theory in practice.... and you'll see: it works!!!

 

[kniepm]

Your arithmetic is wrong, $4000 x 0.10=$400. Did you subconsciously mean 1% house advantage? If so, then your conclusion is correct, assuming that you bet small enough that the probability of busting out is negligible. Oddly enough, if you bet large and increase the chance of going bust, then you also increase the expected value of the bonus slightly.

That's right, I was assuming a 1% house advantage.

 

[Ping]

@kniepm,

Would you be interested in a 10% bonus with ONLY 10% WR?

 

[jpm]

And the spammer returns