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What is a bonus worth?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by kniepm, Jun 29, 2004.

    Jun 29, 2004
  1. kniepm

    kniepm Dormant account

    If I were to receive a 100% bonus (fully withdrawable after meeting WR's) on a $100 deposit and had to play 10x(D+B) and was able to play a game with a 10% house advantage, I would estimate this bonus is worth $60.

    Playthrough (10 x $400) = $4000
    Expected losses ($4000 x .10) = $40
    Expected withdrawal ($200 - $40) = $160

    Do you think I'm looking at this the right way?

    How would you calculate the worth of a sticky bonus (non-withdrawable but stays in your account until you loose it) or a phantom bonus (non-withdrawable bonus that disappears when you make your first withdrawal) based on the same WR's and house edge?

    Any one have estimates on how much any of the less player-friendly terms effect the value of a bonus?

    FTR, I like bonuses, but I haven't seen a new lately that makes it worth depositing at a casino I don't know. (Maybe I'm just getting conservative in my old age.)

    Thanks for any thoughts on this.
  2. Jun 29, 2004
  3. GrandMaster

    GrandMaster Ueber Meister CAG

    Mathematician by day, online gambler by night.
    Your arithmetic is wrong, $4000 x 0.10=$400. Did you subconsciously mean 1% house advantage? If so, then your conclusion is correct, assuming that you bet small enough that the probability of busting out is negligible. Oddly enough, if you bet large and increase the chance of going bust, then you also increase the expected value of the bonus slightly.
  4. Jun 30, 2004
  5. 00ps!

    00ps! Dormant account

    Put your theory in practice.... and you'll see: it works!!! :thumbsup:
  6. Jun 30, 2004
  7. kniepm

    kniepm Dormant account

    That's right, I was assuming a 1% house advantage.
  8. Jul 1, 2004
  9. Ping

    Ping Dormant account

    coffee drinker

    Would you be interested in a 10% bonus with ONLY 10% WR? :what:
  10. Jul 1, 2004
  11. jpm

    jpm Dormant account

    And the spammer returns


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