What is a bonus worth?

kniepm

Dormant account
Joined
Sep 6, 2003
If I were to receive a 100% bonus (fully withdrawable after meeting WR's) on a $100 deposit and had to play 10x(D+B) and was able to play a game with a 10% house advantage, I would estimate this bonus is worth $60.

Playthrough (10 x $400) = $4000
Expected losses ($4000 x .10) = $40
Expected withdrawal ($200 - $40) = $160

Do you think I'm looking at this the right way?

How would you calculate the worth of a sticky bonus (non-withdrawable but stays in your account until you loose it) or a phantom bonus (non-withdrawable bonus that disappears when you make your first withdrawal) based on the same WR's and house edge?

Any one have estimates on how much any of the less player-friendly terms effect the value of a bonus?

FTR, I like bonuses, but I haven't seen a new lately that makes it worth depositing at a casino I don't know. (Maybe I'm just getting conservative in my old age.)

Thanks for any thoughts on this.
 

GrandMaster

Ueber Meister
CAG
Joined
Jan 21, 2004
Location
UK
Your arithmetic is wrong, $4000 x 0.10=$400. Did you subconsciously mean 1% house advantage? If so, then your conclusion is correct, assuming that you bet small enough that the probability of busting out is negligible. Oddly enough, if you bet large and increase the chance of going bust, then you also increase the expected value of the bonus slightly.
 

kniepm

Dormant account
Joined
Sep 6, 2003
GrandMaster said:
Your arithmetic is wrong, $4000 x 0.10=$400. Did you subconsciously mean 1% house advantage? If so, then your conclusion is correct, assuming that you bet small enough that the probability of busting out is negligible. Oddly enough, if you bet large and increase the chance of going bust, then you also increase the expected value of the bonus slightly.
That's right, I was assuming a 1% house advantage.
 

Ping

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 19, 2004
Location
Asia
@kniepm,

Would you be interested in a 10% bonus with ONLY 10% WR? :what:
 

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