Question Slot mechanics: "RTP rage" theory?

[SMaster]

This is a question that surely interests all gamblers.
Regarding the RTP of online slots: I had a "hypothesis" I called "RTP Rage." I’ve very frequently noticed streaks of bonus triggers—and when the game "pays out," it does so quite substantially. Based on my experience, I refuse to attribute this simply to randomness; the mechanics don’t feel random (I’m not just talking about one or two triggers, but several in a row, often with "aggressive" or high-value wins). My explanation is a simple mechanical process: a software-based adjustment of the RTP to meet specific, pre-set parameters. I’m no IT expert, but I’ll try to explain it in plain language. I suspect it’s difficult to design software using a Random Number Generator (RNG) that ensures the average payout—say, over a million spins—hits an exact, predetermined percentage (let’s use 95% as an example). Instead, the RNG might be configured so that, under "normal" conditions, the RTP stays slightly below the target, allowing the system to automatically adjust it upward. For instance, if the total winnings reach 91% of the total bets, a "switch" is flipped—triggering more high-value symbols, scatters, and so on—until the total payout reaches the target 95%. This is the phase where the game pays out generously, with multiple bonus triggers in a row, high-value symbols, and jackpots.

I’ve held this theory for a long time, but recently I decided to ask an AI about it. It confirmed that such a mechanism—known as a "compensated game"—does exist, but it is actually prohibited by most gaming commissions and regulatory bodies. Hmm... so, is it possible that, purely due to the nature of randomness, you end up in "clusters" with a high concentration of winning combinations? I’m not sure. Any experienced gambler will confirm that it’s entirely possible to go several hundred spins without triggering a single bonus game (in my own experience, I’ve seen 500+), while at other times, you might hit 5 triggers within just 20–30 spins—and those bonuses often pay out big. Yes, this extreme inconsistency can create the illusion of a "compensated" (self-adjusting) mechanic, though I still have my doubts regarding certain providers. I’m not saying this is "good" or "bad" (from a gambler’s perspective, it might even be a positive thing), but I’ve noticed this kind of "behavior" in games from providers like Pragmatic Play, Playtech, Red Tiger, RTG, Yggdrasil and couple others—is it just an illusion?
What do you think?
Are there any experts here who have a definitive answer?

 

[Mr Shine]

Just try rolling a 20 sided die that you know to be fair and study the results. You will see a distro that will not appear to be "random". You'll see spikes of high numbers and low numbers that you would think will never occur randomly, as the human brain has a warped innate sense of what random really looks like.

 

[hubbadubbadingdong]

This is a question that surely interests all gamblers.
Regarding the RTP of online slots: I had a "hypothesis" I called "RTP Rage." I’ve very frequently noticed streaks of bonus triggers—and when the game "pays out," it does so quite substantially. Based on my experience, I refuse to attribute this simply to randomness; the mechanics don’t feel random (I’m not just talking about one or two triggers, but several in a row, often with "aggressive" or high-value wins). My explanation is a simple mechanical process: a software-based adjustment of the RTP to meet specific, pre-set parameters. I’m no IT expert, but I’ll try to explain it in plain language. I suspect it’s difficult to design software using a Random Number Generator (RNG) that ensures the average payout—say, over a million spins—hits an exact, predetermined percentage (let’s use 95% as an example). Instead, the RNG might be configured so that, under "normal" conditions, the RTP stays slightly below the target, allowing the system to automatically adjust it upward. For instance, if the total winnings reach 91% of the total bets, a "switch" is flipped—triggering more high-value symbols, scatters, and so on—until the total payout reaches the target 95%. This is the phase where the game pays out generously, with multiple bonus triggers in a row, high-value symbols, and jackpots.

I’ve held this theory for a long time, but recently I decided to ask an AI about it. It confirmed that such a mechanism—known as a "compensated game"—does exist, but it is actually prohibited by most gaming commissions and regulatory bodies. Hmm... so, is it possible that, purely due to the nature of randomness, you end up in "clusters" with a high concentration of winning combinations? I’m not sure. Any experienced gambler will confirm that it’s entirely possible to go several hundred spins without triggering a single bonus game (in my own experience, I’ve seen 500+), while at other times, you might hit 5 triggers within just 20–30 spins—and those bonuses often pay out big. Yes, this extreme inconsistency can create the illusion of a "compensated" (self-adjusting) mechanic, though I still have my doubts regarding certain providers. I’m not saying this is "good" or "bad" (from a gambler’s perspective, it might even be a positive thing), but I’ve noticed this kind of "behavior" in games from providers like Pragmatic Play, Playtech, Red Tiger, RTG, Yggdrasil and couple others—is it just an illusion?
What do you think?
Are there any experts here who have a definitive answer?

No offence meant by this but are you aware that RTP is calculated using a bit of math LNL (Large Number Law) , so a normal licensed game provider will use 64-bit math at a minimum to work out probability or RTP. the underlying math relies on heavy-duty, certified engines to ensure security and complete unpredictability.

Just so you know 64-Bit will give you outcome of roughly 18.4 Quintilion independent outcomes. (They could be using 32-bit that only has 4.2 Billion diff outcomes)

If able to do a spin a second to play all combinations on a 32-bit Slot - would take you around 149 Years to complete

64-bit would take only 584.5 Billion Years or 42.5 Times the age of the Universe, for all combo’s

So to wrap up my Ted talk , any “feelings” about a bonus coming or what have you is pure psychological, and it’s the reason gor the all the Flashing lights and noises ; to make you forget it’s all Based on math.