Horse Racing & Tips Thread

[colinsunderland]

Thought sixteen letters ran well even though didn't get placed, just got outpaced in the final couple of furlongs, think it ended up 5th

 

[geordiecolin]

Thought sixteen letters ran well even though didn't get placed, just got outpaced in the final couple of furlongs, think it ended up 5th

Yes. I thought it was an ew shoe in until it ran out of gas.
I've just been looking at the racing in Ireland on Sunday. Is the amount of entrants for a maiden unusual?

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[colinsunderland]

Yes. I thought it was an ew shoe in until it ran out of gas.
I've just been looking at the racing in Ireland on Sunday. Is the amount of entrants for a maiden unusual?

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probably a bit higher than most but it's quite a big maiden with a decent prize, most will drop out by Saturday
El Dancer just came 4th at 25/1, needed 3rd, can see what type of day today will be haha

 

[geordiecolin]

probably a bit higher than most but it's quite a big maiden with a decent prize, most will drop out by Saturday

I hope so otherwise there would be more horses running that there are people allowed at the track!

 

[colinsunderland]

Wonder which one will let me down tonight haha. If a couple go 1-0 up and the cash out gets to a couple of hundred I might take it. Think PSV are the most likely to let me down as Olympiacos are in pretty good form, and possibly Milan.

 

[geordiecolin]

View attachment 151258

Wonder which one will let me down tonight haha. If a couple go 1-0 up and the cash out gets to a couple of hundred I might take it. Think PSV are the most likely to let me down as Olympiacos are in pretty good form, and possibly Milan.

Good luck Col.
I was thinking of sticking with cncas's structure for this Saturdays comp.
Start with 10 points. Choose at least one nag in the 335 at Kempton and two other horse at the same meeting up to 3 horses in total. EW costs you 2 points per bet.
£30 to the winner. Usual rules apply- You have to have contributed to this thread within the past 6 months.

 

[colinsunderland]

Good luck Col.
I was thinking of sticking with cncas's structure for this Saturdays comp.
Start with 10 points. Choose at least one nag in the 335 at Kempton and two other horse at the same meeting up to 3 horses in total. EW costs you 2 points per bet.
£30 to the winner. Usual rules apply- You have to have contributed to this thread within the past 6 months.

Sounds good to me thanks for doing it

2 teams winning at half time, other two drawing, cash out £91, wtf haha

 

[geordiecolin]

Sounds good to me thanks for doing it

2 teams winning at half time, other two drawing, cash out £91, wtf haha

I am just presuming that one bet let you down? I've not been following sport tonight.

 

[geordiecolin]

Sounds good to me thanks for doing it

2 teams winning at half time, other two drawing, cash out £91, wtf haha

Col. COL. ((((((( COOOOLLLLLLL ))))))
I guess you lost mate?

 

[Kenji85]

Leverkusen were beaten 2-0 at home.

That cashout offer was pish too.....

Comp looks good. I'll post the losers to avoid Saturday morning

 

[colinsunderland]

Col. COL. ((((((( COOOOLLLLLLL ))))))
I guess you lost mate?

yep haha, leverkusen got beat 2-0, milan 1-1
didn't cash out, was ridiculously low.

 

[geordiecolin]

Leverkusen were beaten 2-0 at home.

That cashout offer was pish too.....

Comp looks good. I'll post the losers to avoid Saturday morning

If I could stipulate that Delire Destruval was your choice in the 335 EW for my win then you can contribute any old bet Ken

 

[geordiecolin]

yep haha, leverkusen got beat 2-0, milan 1-1
didn't cash out, was ridiculously low.

I did intend to advise you to cash out when you posted your position. I didn't because you would have just considered me a troll

 

[colinsunderland]

I did intend to advise you to cash out when you posted your position. I didn't because you would have just considered me a troll

I very much doubt I would have thought that!
I wouldn't have cashed out though as it was stupidly low, obviously in hindsight it was better than zero, but putting the cashout value onto the 4 teams at that point would have resulted in a much lower return than I was waiting on, so it was poor value. I always look at the value of things before I bet, and cashing out at that point didn't seem like value to me
Roll on tomorrow

 

[geordiecolin]

I very much doubt I would have thought that!
I wouldn't have cashed out though as it was stupidly low, obviously in hindsight it was better than zero, but putting the cashout value onto the 4 teams at that point would have resulted in a much lower return than I was waiting on, so it was poor value. I always look at the value of things before I bet, and cashing out at that point didn't seem like value to me
Roll on tomorrow

Always another day bud. I will have to make my first deposit in about a week tomorrow because I quite like the cut of the racing and I'm getting low
I get that nobody wants to see a big string of my bets

 

[colinsunderland]

Always another day bud. I will have to make my first deposit in about a week tomorrow because I quite like the cut of the racing and I'm getting low
I get that nobody wants to see a big string of my bets

I always enjoy looking through them, post away

 

[geordiecolin]

It almost feels like Springtime today

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

8. Shantou Sunset
12/1
26th Feb EXETER 14:00 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 7f 25y - Each Way
Starting in 37 minutes
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
5. Innerpickle
9/2
26th Feb WARWICK 14:45 NOVICE'S HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places
10. Amateur
9/2
26th Feb EXETER 15:10 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 6f 153y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
3. Uisce Ur
7/1
26th Feb WARWICK 16:23 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 2f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

And for this evening

Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way

5. Pineapple Express
7/2
26th Feb DUNDALK 16:00 1M 4F HCAP 1m 4f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
4. Spelga
4/1
26th Feb DUNDALK 16:30 1M 2 1/2F HCAP 1m 2f 150yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
5. Well Suited
15/2
26th Feb DUNDALK 17:00 1M HCAP 1m - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
3. Strange Times
11/2
26th Feb DUNDALK 19:00 7F HCAP 7f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
1. Togoville
4/1
26th Feb DUNDALK 19:30 6F HCAP 6f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places

 

[Kenji85]

@geordiecolin. Thank you for the comp. I love this community and the fact it makes me think I have a clue what I am talking about lol.
For the comp

1.15 K. Ecco. 1 pt ew
3.35 K Southfield Stone 2pts ew
4.10 K Guy 2pts ew

I have included that trio with one at fairyhouse
Stranger Danger 2.17 Fairyhouse.
Unlucky to run into Eurotiep last time and is the value in particular for a place in this race.


Elsewhere I have a treble paying 5/1 on football/rugby. Amongst a couple of other small bets this is my main one.

Watford v Bournemouth over 2.5 at 11/10
Leeds v A Villa over 2.5 at 1/2
Italy v Ireland over 51.5 at 10/11.

If the Watford game comes up in the early ko I really fancy this. Leeds score for fun.
Italy tend to run up 15-20 pts at home a fair amount. Ireland are leaky but due to bust out the backs today and score tries. James Lowe and Jordy Lamour in particular love a try against Italian sides.



Good luck to all in the comp and having a bet today.

 

[colinsunderland]

Morning everyone, so I did these for the comp, then read the rules and realised they had to all be at Kempton, so you can guarantee the ones I had to change will win now if anyone wants to make some easy money

2.40L Johnny Drama 2pt win
3.35K Double Shuffle 2pt EW
11.45L Convertible 4pt win

So, my real comp entries are:

3.35K Double Shuffle 2pt EW
1.15K White Moon 1pt EW
3.00K Atholl Street 4pt WIN

Others for today

3.35K Young Wolf. It's target has been the Ultima at Cheltenham, but at it's current weight, he's going to need at least 20 to drop out above him, so I think the owners will be trying to improve his handicap mark to be able to get in. I'm not saying he will win (my comp selection is the one I think will do that ), but think he has a good chance of being placed. He has halved in price overnight from 33/1 down to 16/1 (5 places) too, giving a bit extra confidence that he is trying.

1.35N Wetlands won his last race by 28l and this one isn't much better. Lord of Kerak is the obvious danger but he doesn't seem to like winning. Currently 11/10.

3.15N Crosspark should get placed again, but I think Strong Economy is the one that has a good chance of winning after his win last time out. He seems to be getting better the further he goes, and while this is a pretty big increase in race quality, I would be surprised if he isn't close up at the end. 11/1 4 places

3.50N Hooligan should win this for Sean. Currently 13/8.

Finally, I think Guy will get a place in the 4.10K. Currently 13/2

Good luck all today

 

[cncas2123]

Here is my stab in the dark for the comp today, thanks @geordiecolin

2pts ew Delire D'estruval 3.35 K
1pt win Son of Camas 1.50 K
5pts win Guardino 4.45 k

Good luck to all having a dabble today, may all your bets be winning ones.

 

[Kenji85]

@colinsunderland. We seem to have disagreed today except for Guy at Kempton.

After last weeks fiasco where we picked the same horses virtually every race this can only end well. Lol




As an aside. I spoke to a friend of mine on WhatsApp last night. he is an in running trader. He explained the way they arrive at a price for cash outs. it makes sense. I'll try to sum up what he said. I hope it comes across correct.

We look at the current in running price for selections still to run. We arrive at the current confirmed results price. I'll keep prices level for sake of example.

You did a 10 quid accum on 4 teams all at Evens, so it will return 160 if all 4 win.

Barcelona won at Evens.
Real Madrid won at Evens.
Man United are 1up at half time.
Man City are 0-0 at half time.


What comes into effect here is the current price of both Utd and City. City are 6/4 now from evens and United are 1/4 from Evens.
So your current locked up 40 quid at 6/4 and 1/4 making the running total of accum is 125 return rather than original 160.

Factor in that in running prices massively effect your cashout offer.
Now he would not admit it but I really also feel 50% of people who use cashout are desperate for the money and too afraid it will lose.(I don't mean you col) but these punters def exist. Traders know this and I reckon knock another 3-5% off the actual proper offer because they know the desperate people will still take it. They also know true value seekers are not cashing out unless the offer makes absolute sense or is for an astronomical amount.


Hope that makes sense.

 

[colinsunderland]

@colinsunderland. We seem to have disagreed today except for Guy at Kempton.

After last weeks fiasco where we picked the same horses virtually every race this can only end well. Lol




As an aside. I spoke to a friend of mine on WhatsApp last night. he is an in running trader. He explained the way they arrive at a price for cash outs. it makes sense. I'll try to sum up what he said. I hope it comes across correct.

We look at the current in running price for selections still to run. We arrive at the current confirmed results price. I'll keep prices level for sake of example.

You did a 10 quid accum on 4 teams all at Evens, so it will return 160 if all 4 win.

Barcelona won at Evens.
Real Madrid won at Evens.
Man United are 1up at half time.
Man City are 0-0 at half time.


What comes into effect here is the current price of both Utd and City. City are 6/4 now from evens and United are 1/4 from Evens.
So your current locked up 40 quid at 6/4 and 1/4 making the running total of accum is 125 return rather than original 160.

Factor in that in running prices massively effect your cashout offer.
Now he would not admit it but I really also feel 50% of people who use cashout are desperate for the money and too afraid it will lose.(I don't mean you col) but these punters def exist. Traders know this and I reckon knock another 3-5% off the actual proper offer because they know the desperate people will still take it. They also know true value seekers are not cashing out unless the offer makes absolute sense or is for an astronomical amount.


Hope that makes sense.

Yeah thats roughly how I work out if something is worth taking or not. I usually look at the cash out value and work out what the return would be if I cashed out then rebet it on the same selections still waiting for a result. It should be roughly the same for it to be a fair value. By roughly I mean within about 20%. The other night to get the same return I would have needed to bet around £250, and the cashout was £90, so nowhere close to what it should have been.

Happy we didn't pick the same horses anyway

 

[geordiecolin]

Good luck with your bets all

These are the ones I would have taken for the comp. 335 Romain De Senam 3pts EW 225 Margarets Legacy 2ps EW and 410 Monsieur Darque 2pts EW

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

2. Ecco
5/1
27th Feb KEMPTON 13:15 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
1. Margarets Legacy
9/1
27th Feb KEMPTON 14:25 EVENT 2m 0f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
7. Romain De Senam
14/1
27th Feb KEMPTON 15:35 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 0f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
Rule 4: 5p Deduction
10. Monsieur DArque
9/2
27th Feb KEMPTON 16:10 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f 110y - Each Way

 

[geordiecolin]

Here is my stab in the dark for the comp today, thanks @geordiecolin

2pts ew Delire D'estruval 3.35 K
1pt win Son of Camas 1.50 K
5pts win Guardino 4.45 k

Good luck to all having a dabble today, may all your bets be winning ones.

Congrats cncas2123 with that very nice winner. If you PM me your bank details I will send it over ASAP

 

[cncas2123]

Congrats cncas2123 with that very nice winner. If you PM me your bank details I will send it over ASAP

Will do, thanks for the comp.

I will do the same again next week, usual rules i.e posted in last few months on this thread, and I will pick the main race for the comp closer to the weekend.

Cheers.