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Horse Racing & Tips Thread

Glad others got it too :)
I also had the trifecta, which cost me a grand over the tricast, think thats the first time I've seen a tricast pay significantly more than a trifecta when the favourite hasn't been involved. Did make a little extra by doing the exacta rather than forecast, but still around an £800 difference. Still more than happy with the couple of grand though :D

I didn't watch the race live but watched the recording and 2 out you wouldn't have gave any of the first 3 a chance! Can tell why Sean made the trip though!
 
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colinsunderland said:
Glad others got it too :)
I also had the trifecta, which cost me a grand over the tricast, think thats the first time I've seen a tricast pay significantly more than a trifecta when the favourite hasn't been involved. Did make a little extra by doing the exacta rather than forecast, but still around an £800 difference. Still more than happy with the couple of grand though :D

I didn't watch the race live but watched the recording and 2 out you wouldn't have gave any of the first 3 a chance! Can tell why Sean made the trip though!
Once I have stuck my bets on for the day I rarely rebet unless I am doing very well with them already.
Congrats mate :)
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I think the Bowen's are at Exeter for Landofsmiles in the 3.00, was 10/1, now around 15/2. Can't see them being there for either of Sean's rides (although both have a chance of being placed), so by default, James is the most likely one to pick up money, even if just place money.

Nowhere near as confident as the other day though so maybe stick a couple of quid on if you have it lying in an account spare, or a free bet somewhere :)
 
colinsunderland said:
I think the Bowen's are at Exeter for Landofsmiles in the 3.00, was 10/1, now around 15/2. Can't see them being there for either of Sean's rides (although both have a chance of being placed), so by default, James is the most likely one to pick up money, even if just place money.

Nowhere near as confident as the other day though so maybe stick a couple of quid on if you have it lying in an account spare, or a free bet somewhere :)
Click to expand...

They must have been there for Sean's ride after all lol.
 
Just a few I like for today

Freedom To Dream in the 5.35 at Galway is liked by the stable, and they do well in bumpers. Not sure he will be good enough to beat the favourite, but maybe worth a small EW at around 7/1.

5.30 Cheltenham Butte Montana is the stables only runner today and they have won the race the last 2 runnings. Was 6/1 yesterday, now 4/1. Stables in form too, with 3 winners here yesterday. Really a case of watching the money in bumpers though so see how it goes closer to the race.

3.10 Cheltenham, Think Mcgroarty is Sean's best chance of a winner today, has won on soft previously, but not confident it will win.

Edit, one more - Captain Chaos in the 2.00 Cheltenham. Usually runs poorly after a long break so can ignore his last run, has won on slow ground previously, ran well in the Kim Muir, and has won from an 11lb higher mark. The race doesn't have anything that stands out and 16/1 with Skybet for the first 5 places looks a good EW bet.
 
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Again, wasn't sure where to put this, but with the Melbourne Cup coming up next month, thought this could be the place.

Just finished reading "Makybe Diva" by Trevor Marshallsea, in which he explains the history of the Melbourne Cup, as well as what made Makybe Diva such a great horse. Absolutely fascinating stuff.

Now off to read "Winx: Biography of a Champion" next, as I enjoyed reading about 'The Diva' so much.

Always wondered why Winx or Black Caviar didn't contest the MC - I now know there is such a thing as a 'stayer' as opposed to sprinters. And found out the difference between the hard surfaces of the USA and their 'rolling starts' compared with the soft/hard going/anything goes tracks over here.

However, as I am still such a newbie at all this, I don't think I will be placing a bet on any horse race until I get to know far more about racing. I lose enough money with this online casino gambling lark - I don't want to start a new gambling habit. No! No! No! Definitely NOT!

Although, having said that....I placed a bet on Prince of Penzance to win the 2015 MC only because he was being ridden by a girl. And we all know how that turned out. :cheers: Just sheer, blind luck on my part.
 
colinsunderland said:
Just a few I like for today

Freedom To Dream in the 5.35 at Galway is liked by the stable, and they do well in bumpers. Not sure he will be good enough to beat the favourite, but maybe worth a small EW at around 7/1.

5.30 Cheltenham Butte Montana is the stables only runner today and they have won the race the last 2 runnings. Was 6/1 yesterday, now 4/1. Stables in form too, with 3 winners here yesterday. Really a case of watching the money in bumpers though so see how it goes closer to the race.

3.10 Cheltenham, Think Mcgroarty is Sean's best chance of a winner today, has won on soft previously, but not confident it will win.

Edit, one more - Captain Chaos in the 2.00 Cheltenham. Usually runs poorly after a long break so can ignore his last run, has won on slow ground previously, ran well in the Kim Muir, and has won from an 11lb higher mark. The race doesn't have anything that stands out and 16/1 with Skybet for the first 5 places looks a good EW bet.
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I had a bit of a shocking day yesterday on the Gee gees but the Irish racing on Friday night more than covered yesterdays loses.

I've watched the betting a few times recently and its not paid off for me. The ironic thing was that the horses I originally marked out often did much better :(
 
geordiecolin said:
I had a bit of a shocking day yesterday on the Gee gees but the Irish racing on Friday night more than covered yesterdays loses.

I've watched the betting a few times recently and its not paid off for me. The ironic thing was that the horses I originally marked out often did much better :(
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My day was bad too, although an ew double on the 2 bumper horses pulled a little back. Had Sean's in the bumper today too and Kane to score first too, so not far of level what I started with yesterday morning now lol.

In bumpers, the market can tell the story, I tend to watch prices but also look at betfair, and watch the price, market volume and percentages. If a horse is trading on BF slightly under the live bookie price, that tends to be a pointer towards whats expected from the horse. A lot of the time volume on BF is just the traders backing and laying, but the bots rarely go below the current price, so when the price is lower, it suggests its humans backing it rather than bots :)
 
My trouble is that I am on the go so much either at work or home so I don't get to use that level of dedication. I normally stick my horses on before work then just check on my phone or laptop if I have one on the go.
I used to love watching the old huys in the bookies studying form going distances and times etc. It seemed like a different art to now
 
My trouble is that I am on the go so much either at work or home so I don't get to use that level of dedication. I normally stick my horses on before work then just check on my phone or laptop if I have one on the go.
I used to love watching the old huys in the bookies studying form going distances and times etc. It seemed like adifferent art to now
 
Some of the guys on my forum must spend hours a day, one who does flat racing, mainly AW, has told me he does 12 hours a day and treats it as a full time job. He is actually pretty good, but can put 3 selections a race at times, but most are 5/1+ so a winner will result in a profit, and he does FC's and TC's which he does get up now and then.
 
colinsunderland said:
Some of the guys on my forum must spend hours a day, one who does flat racing, mainly AW, has told me he does 12 hours a day and treats it as a full time job. He is actually pretty good, but can put 3 selections a race at times, but most are 5/1+ so a winner will result in a profit, and he does FC's and TC's which he does get up now and then.
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I am much more of a simple (In every way) punter :P
 
Guardia Top has a decent chance in the 4.00 Chepstow and again is Sean's only ride of the day. However it's his local track and the trainer isn't in good form at all, so I'll only have a small bet on it if it doesn't drift in the market nearer the race.

I do like My Valentino in the 3.45 though, and will probably do a forecast with Someone Exciting too, as it loves heavy ground and is a CD winner.
 
shapesy said:
:thumbsup: tenner again 3/1
Click to expand...

Excellent :)

I got my money back on the day, did a single on the other one I mentioned, and a forecast, and also did the winner in a forecast with the 3rd placed horse, that would have paid £57 if it had came in (had a tenner on so £570), think I was about £20 up overall, think I should stick to the ones I know in future haha.
 
Sean has 2 rides at Taunton today, both look like they don't have any chance on what they have done so far, but both have halved in price, Bumble Boy in the 2.00 to 11/2, and By Order Of in the 2.30 to 13/2. On all known form, both should come last, but will have a small EW double on them just based on the money, just in case.
 
Rebecca Curtis has 3 runners tomorrow, Sean on 2 and James on 1. She has had 5 runners in the past two weeks, with 3 winners, a second and a 6th (ridden by James).

I will be surprised if she doesn't get 2 winners out the 3, and wouldn't be surprised if she got all 3. However James is completely out of form, so I'm going to do a small treble, and if he loses the first race then a larger double on Sean's 2 rides.

In the last I think the only danger to Sean's ride is Black Tulip, and will do a RFC on the two.
 
colinsunderland said:
Rebecca Curtis has 3 runners tomorrow, Sean on 2 and James on 1. She has had 5 runners in the past two weeks, with 3 winners, a second and a 6th (ridden by James).

I will be surprised if she doesn't get 2 winners out the 3, and wouldn't be surprised if she got all 3. However James is completely out of form, so I'm going to do a small treble, and if he loses the first race then a larger double on Sean's 2 rides.

In the last I think the only danger to Sean's ride is Black Tulip, and will do a RFC on the two.
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Rebecca has to be one of the sexiest trainers going :P
She didn't have a good last season so its good to see her on a decent run. For a change I'm not too late for your tips so I will have a look at her runners before placing todays bets.
Cheers Col
 
colinsunderland said:
Good luck today mate
Click to expand...
I don't often do such short priced each way bets but 2 of her runners are worth a punt. I quite like the card at Clonmel too

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

  • 31st Oct STRATFORD 15:25 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 3f 98y - Each Way
    4. Bennys King7/2
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places

  • 31st Oct STRATFORD 15:55 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 0f 70y - Each Way
    3. Alnadam5/2
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 31st Oct STRATFORD 16:25 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 6f 125y - Each Way
    9. Financial Outcome16/5
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

    31st Oct STRATFORD 13:45 MAIDEN HURDLE 2m 6f 7y - Each Way
    9. Wayfinder85/40
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places


    Clonmel
  • Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

    • 31st Oct CLONMEL 13:00 2M 3 1/2F HURDLE 2m 3f 152yds - Each Way
      3. Janets Charm5/1
      E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

    • 31st Oct CLONMEL 13:30 2M 1/2F HURDLE 2m 140yds - Each Way
      13. Notice To Close7/2
      E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

    • 31st Oct CLONMEL 14:05 2M 1/2F HCAP HURDLE 2m 140yds - Each Way
      9. Deauville Society4/1
      E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places

    • 31st Oct CLONMEL 14:40 3M HCAP HURDLE 3m - Each Way
      8. Persian Wind5/1
      E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places


 
Another 600 mile round trip on a Sunday for Sean Bowen today, when he makes the trip to Carlisle to ride Equus Dancer in the 12.45. Not as strong as previous times, as he's riding for his Dad, so transport etc already in place. However the horse is decent, has won at the course, has won on G/S, although they were shorter distances. Also Peter is in pretty poor form at the moment, so not one to go too heavily on. Currently 5/1.
 
colinsunderland said:
Another 600 mile round trip on a Sunday for Sean Bowen today, when he makes the trip to Carlisle to ride Equus Dancer in the 12.45. Not as strong as previous times, as he's riding for his Dad, so transport etc already in place. However the horse is decent, has won at the course, has won on G/S, although they were shorter distances. Also Peter is in pretty poor form at the moment, so not one to go too heavily on. Currently 5/1.
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I've just taken Bowens nag in a small lucky 15,cheers :)

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

  • 3rd Nov CARLISLE 12:45 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 4f 8y - Each Way
    4. Equus Dancer4/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 3rd Nov CARLISLE 13:20 NOVICES' CHASE 2m 4f 0y - Each Way
    1. Im To Blame17/2
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 3rd Nov CARLISLE 13:55 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 1f 33y - Each Way
    9. Frightened Rabbit15/4
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places

  • 3rd Nov CARLISLE 15:05 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f 8y - Each Way
    2. Aye Right9/4
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
 
geordiecolin said:
I've just taken Bowens nag in a small lucky 15,cheers :)

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

  • 3rd Nov CARLISLE 12:45 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 4f 8y - Each Way
    4. Equus Dancer4/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 3rd Nov CARLISLE 13:20 NOVICES' CHASE 2m 4f 0y - Each Way
    1. Im To Blame17/2
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 3rd Nov CARLISLE 13:55 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 1f 33y - Each Way
    9. Frightened Rabbit15/4
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places

  • 3rd Nov CARLISLE 15:05 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f 8y - Each Way
    2. Aye Right9/4
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
Click to expand...
Just waiting for the 15:05 to come in now :P
 
One ride for Sean again tomorrow, on Lightly Sqeeze in the 2.25. The betting in this race seem a bit dodgy to me, Iconic Hero opened as big as 14/1, which was too big, and is now around 4/1. Looking at the money on Betfair though, it isn't a gamble, just the price correcting itself and then the bookies getting scared and contracting the price more than they should. I'll be surprised if it doesn't start double that price tomorrow. It does have the effect of making Lightly Squeeze a bit bigger than I would expect him to be, I was thinking 5/2 would be the right price before the race was priced up, so 4/1 seems very big to me.

I've had a win on Sean's and I also think Go Steady and Mack The Man have good place chances so, depending on the prices tomorrow, will most likely have some FC's and Tricasts with them

Good luck to anyone having a bet tomorrow :)
 
ffs I'm going to have a 20p rule 4 assuming it was 7/2 when took out. I never usually put bets on the night before, but the current 5/2 is about what I expected the price to be. Still slightly better with the R4 though, I put £40 on, should be £168 with the R4, would be £140 at current price.
 
Couple of intersting gambles going on today

Blametheshady 5.45 Dundalk, 25/1 into as low as 3/1
Tangled 4.35 Newcastle 7/1 into 7/2
Tactical Manoeuvre 3.40 Fontwell 11/4 into around 11/8. This is probably the most interesting due to the sustained money on Betfair.

Might do a small patent on them, there are other movers but they are the three that look like real gambles rather than betfair bots controlling prices.
 
Slottery said:
Such a price changes are nice if can predict them to be way too high, first back and after drop lay at BF gives you free bet for winner with difference as well.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I used to do them all the time :) but I've got the premium charge on Betfair now so it's not worth it unless theres a big move and the market liquidity is there, which, since the premium charge was introduced, it usually isn't except at the big meetings like Cheltenham :(
 
Jammie_Ch said:
I've always wanted to try this type of gambling but still not ready.
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In horseracing you probably need quite good insight what majority don't have to predict big price changes and also liquidity is making it bit challenging to find races where's enough money to get out from your trade etc.. In horseracing (not following that very much so somebody can correct me, making more trading in ingame football) prices very often don't change that much but just quite short time from start, sure there are some great findings who are over priced and end up to be favorites but picking them is not at least for me very easy task :)

Quite many also trading horses just in their warm up behavioral by trying to predict who's taking early lead and then close trade once that happen and bank winnings but way too hectic for me to read these signs and make good predicts to make decent money.
 
Sean has 3 rides at Wincanton today, and I know the one he is there for is Just A Sting in the 3.35. He always seems to run a good race after a break, and I prefer to back Sean's rides when they are staying distances, as he seems to ride much better over the longer trips. It's also the RacingPost's nap today there. The two main dangers to me are The Young Master and Soupy Soups, so will probably do a small rfc and tricast on them all. A P Heskin on Soupy Soups in the last 14 days has had 17 rides, and has finished in the first 3 12 times.

Sean's other 2 rides this afternoon have both had money for them overnight and this morning, particularly Outofthisworld, in the 1.50, from about 16/1 down to 9's and Betfair volume backing it up that its actual money rather than price corrections.

Elsewhere, ones I like and will be perming somehow, probably make an EW lucky 15, are

12.20 Present Value 11/2
1.15 Native Robin 11/2
1.40 Bothar Dubh 11/2
1.55 Clan Legend 5/1

and a win treble on

12.45 Oscar Ceremony 13/8
12.55 Mossy Fen 6/4
3.15 Roskana 10/11

Good luck if you are having a bet today :)
 
First Race at Naas today is a good each way opportunity fav is 5/6 and as the ground is soft to heavy should be great opportunity for a large price winner.

A lot of the fields are 2 places today which is not my thing I like 8 runners or more for the each way angle so this is not my kind of race day.
 
steveh35 said:
First Race at Naas today is a good each way opportunity fav is 5/6 and as the ground is soft to heavy should be great opportunity for a large price winner.

A lot of the fields are 2 places today which is not my thing I like 8 runners or more for the each way angle so this is not my kind of race day.
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Yes, I toyed with You Can Call Me Al in that race but the trainers recent form put me off :(
 
Bentham has ran unplaced everytime he has ran on ground softer than good, whereas usually wins on good. Thats the only reason I went off him, just don't think he will handle heavy ground.
When the ground was heavy, years ago I used to do the 2 outsiders as a 50p RFC, got quite a few good wins from that lol
 
I stuck my bets on early and forgot to check in here first to see what you had posted Col. These are my bets for the day.
I also don't like small fields when it comes to betting.

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

  • 9th Nov AINTREE 14:05 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 3f 200y - Each Way
    5. Duke Street6/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 9th Nov KELSO 13:55 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 133y - Each Way
    9. Pookie Pekan5/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 9th Nov WINCANTON 13:50 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 82y - Each Way
    12. Deputys Oscar11/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places

  • 9th Nov WINCANTON 15:35 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 1f 30y - Each Way
    13. Soupy Soups12/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

  • 9th Nov WINCANTON 13:15 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f 35y - Each Way
    8. Native Robin7/2
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 9th Nov KELSO 14:30 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 1f 14y - Each Way
    7. Kings Wharf5/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 9th Nov AINTREE 13:30 HANDICAP CHASE 1m 7f 176y - Each Way
    6. Solar Impulse7/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 9th Nov AINTREE 14:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 149y - Each Way
    2. Jacks Last Hope14/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
And as the Irish racing so often gets me out of the shit

Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way
  • L
    9th Nov NAAS 12:00 2M HURDLE 2m - Each Way
    3. Cavalry Master10/114/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 9th Nov NAAS 13:40 2M 4F HCAP HURDLE 2m 4f - Each Way
    4. Bothar Dubh15/2
    E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 4 Places

  • 9th Nov NAAS 14:15 2M 4F HCAP CHASE 2m 4f - Each Way
    4. Ask Heather11/4
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places

  • 9th Nov NAAS 14:50 2M 3F HURDLE 2m 3f - Each Way
    4. Elixir Dainay11/4
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

  • 9th Nov NAAS 15:25 2M 3F CHASE 2m 3f - Each Way
    17. Tower Bridge5/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
Good luck all
 

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