Corona virus - Covid 19 discussion

[colinsunderland]

I dont agree with lockdowns or rushed risky vaccines, for a virus that kills just 0.02 of healthy under 60 yr olds even if they are unlucky enough to catch covid.

We should have saved our £700 billion war chest JIC a real pandemic comes along, one that actually is devastating and takes 1 in 5 of all ages and would actually need a lockdown, not that anyone would even need to be instructed to lockdown in that scenario.

Right, but how will having the vaccine add to the risk of dying? From what I've read there were around 75000 people took part in the 2 trials, and the worst side effect reported was that they were a little achy the following day, but ok after that. Haven't heard of anyone dying or having severe side effects?

 

[shadow123]

I have nothing but admiration for people who are prepared to have the vaccine. I will be amazed if 20% of people have it. Anyone remotely healthy and under 70, its literally adding to your chance of dying!!

Obviously we are never going to agree, no problem, but if most people dont take the vaccine how the hell to we end it,
the only way a lot of horrible diseases have been eradicated is through vaccination,we should be grateful for the hard
work and money that has been put into the covid vaccine and I will be at the front of the queue to get when it becomes
available.Its down to personal choice but you could end up with a situation where 80% of the people around you are
immune but you will still be open to infection from the remaining 20%.
Not sure where your fear of vaccination comes from,although I do understand there may be unforseen side effects.
We know what covid can do to you and i am happy to my chances
.

 

[dealer wins]

Obviously we are never going to agree, no problem, but if most people dont take the vaccine how the hell to we end it,
the only way a lot of horrible diseases have been eradicated is through vaccination,we should be grateful for the hard
work and money that has been put into the covid vaccine and I will be at the front of the queue to get when it becomes
available.Its down to personal choice but you could end up with a situation where 80% of the people around you are
immune but you will still be open to infection from the remaining 20%.
Not sure where your fear of vaccination comes from,although I do understand there may be unforseen side effects.
We know what covid can do to you and i am happy to my chances
.

This is not a horrible disease, its fatality rate is akin to the flu.

 

[sufferinsilence]

I'm pretty sure more than 20% will get the vaccine, most likely over 50 or even 60%.

Source: my thumb. You choose which one.

 

[Borgie]

I have nothing but admiration for people who are prepared to have the vaccine. I will be amazed if 20% of people have it. Anyone remotely healthy and under 70, its literally adding to your chance of dying!!

So a genuine question.

You do not think lockdowns work.

You do not want the vaccine and in your opinion only 20 percent of the population will take vaccine which is not enough for herd immunity.

Plus you believe that taking the vaccine could mean you die.

So what would you recommend be done ? Something else or nothing?

 

[colinsunderland]

This is not a horrible disease, its fatality rate is akin to the flu.

oh dear, and people say you aren't trolling.
The infection rate is FAR higher though.
WHO estimates between 294000 and 650000 die from flu per year, averaging 389000.
So far this year there have been 1.45 million Covid-19 deaths, and thats after pretty much the whole world were locked down and social distancing measures were put in place.
But yeah no worse than the flu.

 

[Borgie]

This is not a horrible disease, its fatality rate is akin to the flu.

So this article is wrong completely when comparing flu and covid ?

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[shadow123]

This is not a horrible disease, its fatality rate is akin to the flu.

Come on get real, have you any idea what a covid death can be like, the body goes into overdrive trying to
fight the infection until the point is reached where it is overwhelmed and the organs are destroyed, Think
in most cases the patients drown as the lungs are full of shit.Not my chosen way of dying thanks

 

[colinsunderland]

So this article is wrong completely when comparing flu and covid ?

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whoops, you've shown him to be wrong by showing evidence, don't expect a reply.
I think he thinks anyone with health conditions and who are pensioners should just be left to die.
Maybe he could propose a scheme whereby anyone with a disability, health condition or over 60 are just subject to a new euthanasia law. Only the young and fit allowed to live. Think of the money it would save the NHS not having to treat those pesky pensioners. Not that we would have any need for the NHS, as anyone needing treatment would be killed.

 

[Borgie]

whoops, you've shown him to be wrong by showing evidence, don't expect a reply.
I think he thinks anyone with health conditions and who are pensioners should just be left to die.
Maybe he could propose a scheme whereby anyone with a disability, health condition or over 60 are just subject to a new euthanasia law. Only the young and fit allowed to live. Think of the money it would save the NHS not having to treat those pesky pensioners. Not that we would have any need for the NHS, as anyone needing treatment would be killed.

I will be 60 next year so that's me... my time is up. Nice knowing you all.

 

[cncas2123]

whoops, you've shown him to be wrong by showing evidence, don't expect a reply.
I think he thinks anyone with health conditions and who are pensioners should just be left to die.
Maybe he could propose a scheme whereby anyone with a disability, health condition or over 60 are just subject to a new euthanasia law. Only the young and fit allowed to live. Think of the money it would save the NHS not having to treat those pesky pensioners. Not that we would have any need for the NHS, as anyone needing treatment would be killed.

And extend his argument out even more...
"And think of the money that could be saved in pensions for all those over 65, I mean if we get rid of them when they are 60 we all get a tax rebate and then some will have a few more quid to play slots with...."

 

[cncas2123]

I will be 60 next year so that's me... my time is up. Nice knowing you all.

Ah sure he might give you a free pass until 65 if you behave yourself and get fit and healthy......

 

[mack341]

The science hasn't changed, young people getting a mild form would help build herd immunity, if the white knight in the form of a vaccine wasn't feasible or 10 years away, that's how we'd have to approach it, shield the vulnerable as best we could, while the not at risk got on with life.

I don't particularly disagree with that, I think the NHS do a great job, but is extremely badly run, and the amount of money wasted is criminal. Stuff like £850 to supply and fit a roller blind (

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), I've heard from Doctors that the contractors can charge £100 to replace a light bulb if it's outside of working hours, something a member of staff could do for £3 if they bought it themselves.

Yes I wouldn't blame the nurses and doctors but mismanagement, I would favour a doctor being put in charge of a hospital [as they do in japan]. If we could cut the bureacracy by 50%, re-invest that money in nurses, doctors, and things that make a real difference to patient care etc..

 

[shadow123]

Must confess I am 66 and would like to reach 67.Anyone who has so little faith in medical science is going to
have a really shit old age, unless you are very lucky you end up with pills for all the ailments aging brings,
if you dont like a littte jab and sore arm god help you later in life

 

[cncas2123]

And on the point of the vaccine not being safe and it being rushed and only the mad will take it, this vaccine will be as safe, if not safer, than any other vaccine around. No vaccine has had as much resource put into it, as much testing out into it and the fact that it has been produced after 8 months of research is because they ran multiple test stages simultaneously to shorten the time taken on it.
A vaccine has to go through several stages of safety check prior to going to market and this will usually take years, but with this one the compressed the timescale by running everything side by side. It was a massive financial risk as if it went badly wrong at any stage it was back to square one the whole process started again.
The test data has already been peer reviewed, and the feedback has been positive and they would not be taking any of these to market in such a litigious world if they werent 99.999% certain that there will be no side effects/issues down the line.

 

[mack341]

Reading about the oxford astrazeneca vaccine yesterday, the patients in the trial arm who received half a dose and then 1 dose had a 90% success rate, however the patients who received 2 full doses had a 62% success rate. There were also no patients over 55 in the 90% group. So I believe they are going to run a new trial.

If you think about it, covid has killed 6,622 in sweden, 6.4 people per 10,000, so if you gave those 10,000 a vaccine how many lives would that save and could there be more than 6 people that develop problems from the vaccine, an immune reaction or something later on? You have to way up the risks and benefits.

When trump had covid they gave him regeneron, an antibody cocktail, and he recovered so perhaps such new treatments will also be available alongside the vaccine.

 

[colinsunderland]

If you think about it, covid has killed 6,622 in sweden, 6.4 people per 10,000, so if you gave those 10,000 a vaccine how many lives would that save and could there be more than 6 people that develop problems later on from the vaccine, an immune reaction or something later on? You have to way up the risks and benefits.

It's not as simple as that as if 9000 of those people never caught it, it wouldn't have been passed on to any extra contacts. So it could save 600, it could save 6.
There also seems to be growing concern that younger people getting it and not dying are still suffering damage to lungs etc and that they may have problems later in life, so not getting it would probably be a good idea for everyone, even those not affected at the time.

 

[mack341]

It's not as simple as that as if 9000 of those people never caught it, it wouldn't have been passed on to any extra contacts. So it could save 600, it could save 6.
There also seems to be growing concern that younger people getting it and not dying are still suffering damage to lungs etc and that they may have problems later in life, so not getting it would probably be a good idea for everyone, even those not affected at the time.

I don't currently have the flu shot, even though catching flu can leave you with post viral conditions, and we have got a pretty amazing immune system as a species, and remember even adequate vit d can cut deaths from covid by 50%.

I think if we replicate the flu vaccine uptake totals it should be enough to go back to normal, those most at risk receiving it first [if they want it].

Anything more than that, like mandatory and coercion tactics is wrong imo, and an invasion of my freedom to decide what I put into my body.

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[mack341]

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BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Vaccine makers will be indemnified in Europe if their COVID-19 shots cause unexpected side-effects, an industry official said on Tuesday, urging European regulators to set up more predictable schemes to compensate possible victims.

Sue Middleton, President of the Executive Board of Vaccines Europe which represents top vaccine makers, told a European Parliament hearing that in case of unexpected adverse events, which could include unpredicted side-effects, she understood that there was indemnification.

Consumer organisations and lawmakers insist companies should be liable for all potential side-effects.

Middleton also called for no-fault compensation in all 27 EU states for COVID-19 vaccines which would speed up resolution of legal disputes. Such a system is in place in 11 countries, but its application to COVID-19 vaccine cases is not always clear, she said.

These schemes also allow citizens to claim more quickly payments for injuries that followed vaccinations or treatments, but compensation is capped and is usually far below what can typically be awarded in a successful product liability lawsuit.

 

[colinsunderland]

I don't currently have the flu shot, even though catching flu can leave you with post viral conditions, and we have got a pretty amazing immune system as a species, and remember even adequate vit d can cut deaths from covid by 50%.

I think if we replicate the flu vaccine uptake totals it should be enough to go back to normal, those most at risk receiving it first [if they want it].

Anything more than that, like mandatory and coercion tactics is wrong imo, and an invasion of my freedom to decide what I put into my body.

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I agree, it certainly shouldn't be mandatory, and would be amazed if the government made it so. It would be political suicide if they forced people to have it.

However, I can see life being easier if you do. I will bet some countries will place a ban on incoming travel if you haven't had one, and no doubt some workplaces will try to insist on it too.

 

[Slottery]

If somebody else have really boring life at the moment, here's one really boring (except if you love stats, number etc...) about statistical techniques to estimate IFR (not peer-reviewed and not saying anything as a fact but compare different techniques for these estimations):

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[geordiecolin]

So I get a warning for pointing out abuse towards another poster!
Someone getting upset about me calling the abuser out over abusing another poster and reporting me. Yet Max takes the side of the abuser.

 

[paul7388]

So I get a warning for pointing out abuse towards another poster!
Someone getting upset about me calling the abuser out over abusing another poster and reporting me. Yet Max takes the side of the abuser.

Had to check back and see what post the warning was for as could not think of anything bad you posted lately.

But saw the post in question. I would actually agree with a lot you said in it.

Does not take a genius to see that a lot of regular members are posting less. And if someone actually reported that post and you got a warning sums it all up.

Still cannot believe that a few members on here sit and report just about anything. No member can possibly be that offended by a simple post. Yes this forum is definitely different these days.

 

[geordiecolin]

Had to check back and see what post the warning was for as could not think of anything bad you posted lately.

But saw the post in question. I would actually agree with a lot you said in it.

Does not take a genius to see that a lot of regular members are posting less. And if someone actually reported that post and you got a warning sums it all up.

Still cannot believe that a few members on here sit and report just about anything. No member can possibly be that offended by a simple post. Yes this forum is definitely different these days.

I would have thought that what I posted was quite constructive

 

[paul7388]

Oh well today is the day many will just go f@ck the lockdown in scotland.

Put Glasgow in level 4 for weeks. Tell you you will get fined if you leave the area etc.

Then you get hundreds protesting at Parkhead and the police don't even disperse the protest. And the prat for SNP Humza Yousaf just tweets disgraceful scenes. No mention of the fact every one is breaking the law and no social distancing whatsoever. No mention of police doing their job and stopping it for being in a level 4 area.

Can see from tomorrow many people just ignoring all the rules. And if they get fined think they will be wanting answers as to why tonights shambles was allowed then.

 

[colinsunderland]

The figures over the past few days have been very encouraging for the UK. - figures are compared to last Sunday

12,155 cases in the UK. -6,507
215 deaths in the UK. -183
1,571 patients admitted to hospital in the UK. -175
15,712 patients in hospital in the UK. -678
1,417 patients on ventilation in the UK. -4

383,521 tests conducted.

#lockdownsdontwork

 

[sufferinsilence]

If somebody else have really boring life at the moment, here's one really boring (except if you love stats, number etc...) about statistical techniques to estimate IFR (not peer-reviewed and not saying anything as a fact but compare different techniques for these estimations):

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Thanks for posting, I think you need some kinda maths degree to understand all/any of this

 

[Kroffe]

Thanks for posting, I think you need some kinda maths degree to understand all/any of this

Let me have a look.
Brb.

 

[sufferinsilence]

Let me have a look.
Brb.

Make a TL;DR for those of use who are mathematically challenged while you're at it.

 

[Kroffe]

Make a TL;DR for those of use who are mathematically challenged while you're at it.

Please dont bother me while im concentrating.
Thank you.

 

[Borgie]

Let me have a look.
Brb.

I need the Janet and John version please and not in swedish lol

 

[Jono777]

The figures over the past few days have been very encouraging for the UK. - figures are compared to last Sunday

12,155 cases in the UK. -6,507
215 deaths in the UK. -183
1,571 patients admitted to hospital in the UK. -175
15,712 patients in hospital in the UK. -678
1,417 patients on ventilation in the UK. -4

383,521 tests conducted.

#lockdownsdontwork

More Facebook & Twitter rambling with no proof!!

 

[Kroffe]

I need the Janet and John version please and not in swedish lol

It will take a bit longer than i thought.
Im not familiar with the language its written in.

Found a translation tho.
Give me a week or two and ill get back to you.

 

[shadow123]

Think there was less maths involved in making the atomic bomb

 

[mack341]

From the 'statistics guy jon' on twitter:

with comment:

What this tells us is the story of pressure on the NHS is far more nuanced than the headlines we get as the public. That the hard data indicates admitted for treatment from the community is 1 case in 4 and that all other cases are potentially linked to spread in hospitals.

Finally, this also might explain much of the positive PCR tests being reported if over a thousand per day are coming from inside hospitals.


^^ This could explain the number of empty test centre pictures you see on twitter and elsewhere, a lot of the tests are taking place in hospital; which is a natural hotspot [without deep cleaning and ultra separation measures] for people picking up at least small amounts of the virus, and then having a PCR test come back positive but no symptoms, and then if they die of something else while in hospital, it gets counted as a covid death.

 

[Borgie]

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[sufferinsilence]

From the 'statistics guy jon' on twitter:

View attachment 145887

with comment:

What this tells us is the story of pressure on the NHS is far more nuanced than the headlines we get as the public. That the hard data indicates admitted for treatment from the community is 1 case in 4 and that all other cases are potentially linked to spread in hospitals.

Finally, this also might explain much of the positive PCR tests being reported if over a thousand per day are coming from inside hospitals.


^^ This could explain the number of empty test centre pictures you see on twitter and elsewhere, a lot of the tests are taking place in hospital; which is a natural hotspot [without deep cleaning and ultra separation measures] for people picking up at least small amounts of the virus, and then having a PCR test come back positive but no symptoms, and then if they die of something else while in hospital, it gets counted as a covid death.

The issue is that a Covid patient requires more manpower than a "regular" patient. There are more health & safety measures in place for the medical and other hospital personnel. It might seem there's not that much pressure on the NHS...

 

[Borgie]

Get past the fact that it was Piers morgan who posted this . I know a lot do not like him. This is just so sad and moving.

 

[mack341]

The issue is that a Covid patient requires more manpower than a "regular" patient. There are more health & safety measures in place for the medical and other hospital personnel. It might seem there's not that much pressure on the NHS...

yes but the point is the pressure is to some degree self-inflicted, a hospital environment and the highly sensitive pcr test is a recipe for a disaster 'stats' wise, add to that the 28 day rule the uk use to count covid deaths. 1700 people die on average every day in the uk, if a sizeable amount are admitted to a hospital [ which is effectively contaminated with covid because lack of cleaning, poor procedures etc.. ] it's a ticking time bomb of more cases.

It's a theory worth looking into by MP's, and it would make sense as everybody, especially pensioners, have been staying in and isolating for months, so how are they getting covid...by catching it in hospital when they were admitted for something else?

 

[Slottery]

Think they finally found way here to motivate people wear masks, probably more efficient than 100 eur fine:

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[sufferinsilence]

yes but the point is the pressure is to some degree self-inflicted, a hospital environment and the highly sensitive pcr test is a recipe for a disaster 'stats' wise, add to that the 28 day rule the uk use to count covid deaths. 1700 people die on average every day in the uk, if a sizeable amount are admitted to a hospital [ which is effectively contaminated with covid because lack of cleaning, poor procedures etc.. ] it's a ticking time bomb of more cases.

It's a theory worth looking into by MP's, and it would make sense as everybody, especially pensioners, have been staying in and isolating for months, so how are they getting covid...by catching it in hospital when they were admitted for something else?

By all means... atleast they'll be doing something worth their time.

 

[cncas2123]

The issue is that a Covid patient requires more manpower than a "regular" patient. There are more health & safety measures in place for the medical and other hospital personnel. It might seem there's not that much pressure on the NHS...

100% agree, its the amount of highly skilled specialist nurses needed, ventilators needed, 24 hour care. If you fill your wards and ICU's with Covid patients you eventually run out of staff to cope.
And health workers are humans after all, some of them need to self isolate, some will get sick, if all your nursing staff and care staff are looking after the Covid patients, who is going to plug the gaps.

 

[colinsunderland]

From the 'statistics guy jon' on twitter:

View attachment 145887

with comment:

What this tells us is the story of pressure on the NHS is far more nuanced than the headlines we get as the public. That the hard data indicates admitted for treatment from the community is 1 case in 4 and that all other cases are potentially linked to spread in hospitals.

Finally, this also might explain much of the positive PCR tests being reported if over a thousand per day are coming from inside hospitals.


^^ This could explain the number of empty test centre pictures you see on twitter and elsewhere, a lot of the tests are taking place in hospital; which is a natural hotspot [without deep cleaning and ultra separation measures] for people picking up at least small amounts of the virus, and then having a PCR test come back positive but no symptoms, and then if they die of something else while in hospital, it gets counted as a covid death.

There is no easy way to work out exactly how many people are only there due to covid though, there has to be a standard or we will never have figures at all.

Take my mam for example. She had a collapsed lung (already had the other one collapse when she was 16), and at the same time developed bad COPD, so much so that she required oxygen for the rest of her life. Had she been around now and caught covid, I can pretty much guarantee she would have died.

After her first operation, the Doctor told me to prepare as the state of her lungs meant she would be lucky to have 6 months left. She survived over 3 years after that point.

So if she caught Covid a year after the Dr told us that, and it killed her (as it likely would have). Would it be put down as a Covid death or COPD? If she was fit and healthy Covid wouldn't have killed her so COPD?. If the Doctor was right, then she should have been dead by then anyway, so COPD? But she actually lasted over 3 years, and as she didn't catch Covid, then a Covid death had she have died?

Point is, when people have serious medical conditions, then it's not that easy to say what killed them. My view is, if Covid brought the death on sooner, or had any part in it, then it's a Covid death. If someone who died yesterday having tested positive for Covid, would have been alive today without a positive test, then the pre-existing condition didn't kill them.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

From the 'statistics guy jon' on twitter:

View attachment 145887

with comment:

What this tells us is the story of pressure on the NHS is far more nuanced than the headlines we get as the public. That the hard data indicates admitted for treatment from the community is 1 case in 4 and that all other cases are potentially linked to spread in hospitals.

Finally, this also might explain much of the positive PCR tests being reported if over a thousand per day are coming from inside hospitals.


^^ This could explain the number of empty test centre pictures you see on twitter and elsewhere, a lot of the tests are taking place in hospital; which is a natural hotspot [without deep cleaning and ultra separation measures] for people picking up at least small amounts of the virus, and then having a PCR test come back positive but no symptoms, and then if they die of something else while in hospital, it gets counted as a covid death.

If we're talking about the same 'Statistics Guy' (which I think we are), he's a crank Covid-denier whose graphs/methods/maths have been proven to be, erm..... questionable.

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[dealer wins]

Scraping the barrel using Neil O'Brien lol

 

[irish-ranger]

You can certainly argue that a lot of what the Tories have pushed through the Commons in terms of legislation since the start of the pandemic is anti-democratic and deliberately intended to avoid scrutiny of decisions (awarding of PPE contracts, for example), but that doesn't mean we're 'on the cusp of a totalitarian government'.

It's amusing that when Johnson and his pals were smashing stuff up over Brexit (illegally proroguing parliament etc) it was all heartily cheered on over in the Brexit thread, but now they're allegedly doing the same sorts of things over Covid it's apparently putting us one step away from being North Korea. (I guess it's OK to smash stuff up if you happen to want that thing get smashed up too, but not OK if the thing that's being smashed up you want to be left intact.)

Jesus man only u would intwine brexit with covid I'm really starting to think that this Brexit is going to cost u somthing,

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[mack341]

If we're talking about the same 'Statistics Guy' (which I think we are), he's a crank Covid-denier whose graphs/methods/maths have been proven to be, erm..... questionable.

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Thanks chop for this constructive reply, the usual dismissive, 'he's a crank', nothing about the actual chart but some unrelated posts from an angry con MP. Care to explain what the MP was on about for us more scientifically challenged, and the significance of getting one figure wrong? [bearing in mind how far ferguson is routinely out with his predictions and modelling, but I'd doubt you call him a crank]

Do you have any opinion that potentially 3/4 of hospital covid cases were caught in hospital, is this plausible, perhaps a reason why despite lockdown we've still seen thousands of deaths?

-----------

I'm starting to form a better picture of what's gone on, hospitals and care homes have probably contributed most of the transmission hotspots; I remember reading that all through the months when masks weren't required, there were no reports of supermarket staff getting covid, and yet they'd be the next people after healthcare to be in the firing line of catching something.

 

[mack341]

There is no easy way to work out exactly how many people are only there due to covid though, there has to be a standard or we will never have figures at all.

Take my mam for example. She had a collapsed lung (already had the other one collapse when she was 16), and at the same time developed bad COPD, so much so that she required oxygen for the rest of her life. Had she been around now and caught covid, I can pretty much guarantee she would have died.

After her first operation, the Doctor told me to prepare as the state of her lungs meant she would be lucky to have 6 months left. She survived over 3 years after that point.

So if she caught Covid a year after the Dr told us that, and it killed her (as it likely would have). Would it be put down as a Covid death or COPD? If she was fit and healthy Covid wouldn't have killed her so COPD?. If the Doctor was right, then she should have been dead by then anyway, so COPD? But she actually lasted over 3 years, and as she didn't catch Covid, then a Covid death had she have died?

Point is, when people have serious medical conditions, then it's not that easy to say what killed them. My view is, if Covid brought the death on sooner, or had any part in it, then it's a Covid death. If someone who died yesterday having tested positive for Covid, would have been alive today without a positive test, then the pre-existing condition didn't kill them.

When would a 'covid death' be legitimately not a covid death, asymptomatic infection but dies of a stroke say?

What if your mum caught the covid while in hospital for the COPD, I think that is what the statistics guy is driving at, still a covid death but are the GOVT/NHS mismanaging the hospitals. I did see months ago some countries using UV light robots to disinfect areas and kill covid.

Are we doing things like that, if no one checks and studies the cases we can't improve - just like the mrsa rampant in hospitals and the govt/nhs denied it was a problem for ages.

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[2004]

Every year 5,000 patients in hospitals in Britain die from an infection acquired after they were admitted.

Up to 100,000 more - almost one in 10 in-patients - endure extended illness, pain and suffering caused by bugs they contract in the place where they came for a cure.

The Tory health spokesman, Andrew Lansley, said: "It is a national scandal. Over the last seven years, deaths from MRSA have doubled

 

[colinsunderland]

My Dad died after catching MRSA in a hospital!

I would imagine all the facts and figures, certainly in most European countries, will be looked over with a fine toothcomb in years to come, at the moment they just have to make some assumptions, which is unfortunate, but understandable.

 

[sufferinsilence]