Prediction markets just overtook crypto gambling

[Valge]

TRM Labs published its Q1 2026 on-chain data this week. Prediction markets hit $36.6 billion in transaction volume in a single quarter, comfortably beating the $14 billion recorded by crypto gambling platforms. For the first time in history, prediction markets have outpaced iGaming in on-chain volume.

Crypto gambling had a record Q4 2025 at $15 billion, and finished the full year at $51 billion, so this isn't iGaming collapsing.

The TRM data also has an interesting structural detail, new wallet creation is down roughly 54% since 2022, but returning users have grown nearly fourfold. The growth isn't new players discovering crypto, the existing base betting more. Around 70% of all crypto gambling volume now runs through stablecoins, with USDT at 94% on TRON specifically.

Question: Are prediction markets pulling from the same audience as crypto casinos, or are these two parallel markets that just happen to share the same rails?

 

[betscale]

The audiences start from different places. Prediction-market volume (Polymarket especially) skews crypto-native, event/politics/news bettors, plus a meaningful slice of size-driven "smart money" treating it more like a trading venue than a casino. Crypto casino volume is entertainment-driven, high-frequency, slots/live-heavy. Different motivation, different session behaviour.

I don'think that iGaming is collapsing, and not a straight swap. A new category eating the sports/event slice of discretionary crypto-betting spend while the slots/casino core stays put. Most exposed are crypto sportsbooks; pure casino product is more insulated.

The open question for 2026 is whether the casinos respond by bolting on exchange-style event products themselves.