TRM Labs published its Q1 2026 on-chain data this week. Prediction markets hit $36.6 billion in transaction volume in a single quarter, comfortably beating the $14 billion recorded by crypto gambling platforms. For the first time in history, prediction markets have outpaced iGaming in on-chain volume.
Crypto gambling had a record Q4 2025 at $15 billion, and finished the full year at $51 billion, so this isn't iGaming collapsing.
The TRM data also has an interesting structural detail, new wallet creation is down roughly 54% since 2022, but returning users have grown nearly fourfold. The growth isn't new players discovering crypto, the existing base betting more. Around 70% of all crypto gambling volume now runs through stablecoins, with USDT at 94% on TRON specifically.
Question: Are prediction markets pulling from the same audience as crypto casinos, or are these two parallel markets that just happen to share the same rails?
Crypto gambling had a record Q4 2025 at $15 billion, and finished the full year at $51 billion, so this isn't iGaming collapsing.
The TRM data also has an interesting structural detail, new wallet creation is down roughly 54% since 2022, but returning users have grown nearly fourfold. The growth isn't new players discovering crypto, the existing base betting more. Around 70% of all crypto gambling volume now runs through stablecoins, with USDT at 94% on TRON specifically.
Question: Are prediction markets pulling from the same audience as crypto casinos, or are these two parallel markets that just happen to share the same rails?
