New bonus strategy - play blackjack instead

kirby

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 15, 2005
Location
USA
Over the past six months I've come to the personal conclusion that most signup bonus are not worth the effort. That generalization applies to the standard 100% match with 15x wagering requirement and game restrictions. Bonuses over 100% - well maybe!

That $25 deposit and a $25 bonus becomes a $750 gambling requirement. Assume for a moment a 10% house edge on slots (with a $50 bankroll the odds of major bonus win before busting are pretty small). You're theoretical loss is more than your bankroll. I call that a slow painful death as your credits go into a slow motion death spiral. For that torturous demise you have voluntarily restricted your choice of games. Attractive upfront but ultimately disappointing.

Now consider another option. $25 deposit with no bonus. You can play anything you want. For me a $25 hand of blackjack is the best choice. Win that hand and I've achieved the 100% match in minute. In fact, if I get a blackjack, I've just gotten a $150% bonus. Lose that hand and it's like a death by guillotine, quick.

Note that I'm saying ONE hand of blackjack, double or nothing. If I win, then I can play anthing I want and cash out whenever I want. Seems like a better deal than the signup bonus that comes with a chain boat anchor.

Finally, I'll take the bonus if (1) the bonus is 200% or more simply because I fell less likely to bust before completing the 15x wagering requirement or (2) the casino lets me count blackjack or video poker towards the 15x. To me that's a fair contest.

P.S. I only open one new account a month so that death by guillotine remains within my emotional comfort zone.
 
I dont think slots or blackjack is best option to olay with bonuses for wagering requirements.
Casinowar is the best deal for wagering requirements IMO.
 
Since most terms and conditions attach penalties to playing blackjack with the bonus money, it's not usually an option. I was talking about declining the bonus and getting rid of the wagering requirement. Then I can bet my $25 and take my chances.

You're right about slots being a bad idea but with autospin it takes a bit less concentration and betting penny slots may work out allright

Casino war has a higher house edge than blackjack basic strategy but I can see where you're coming from.
 
Kirby, I agree with you regarding bonuses. I only claim them when I've reached my personal alloted gambling limit.

If I'm still under my limit, and I claim a $200 bonus at one of my vip casinos, hit a jackpot and then have to gamble x times that, I am po'd because I know if I had not claimed the bonus, I still would have deposited my $200 into that casino, and I would have hit the jackpot with no restrictions.
 
kirby said:
Assume for a moment a 10% house edge on slots
...or you could assume the actual house edge of 4-5% on most slots.
kirby said:
Now consider another option. $25 deposit with no bonus. You can play anything you want. For me a $25 hand of blackjack is the best choice. Win that hand and I've achieved the 100% match in minute. In fact, if I get a blackjack, I've just gotten a $150% bonus. Lose that hand and it's like a death by guillotine, quick.
I take it you're joking? Your clever plan just loses you about 12 cents at every casino you play at - assuming you always withdraw immediately after achieving the "bonus".

I wouldn't particularly try to encourage anyone to play with bonuses, but they're still the only chance you have of putting the odds in your favour.
 
Vesuvio said:
...or you could assume the actual house edge of 4-5% on most slots.

I know that's what Price-Waterhouse certifies but I imagine it (1) includes video poker with a 98% payou, (2) averages higher payouts on $1 lines and lower payouts on penny lines and (3) assume successful bonus rounds which are not really too likely on a $50 bankroll. So for my penny slots I'll stick with Vegas average of 90%. Actual mileage may vary.

Vesuvio said:
I take it you're joking? Your clever plan just loses you about 12 cents at every casino you play at - assuming you always withdraw immediately after achieving the "bonus".

Not really. I don't understand how single bets at each casino with a 0.5% edge transltes into a 12% edge overall. Seems to me I'lll win half the time and lose half the time. Factor in blackjacks at 3:2 payout an I'm marginally ahead.
 
I guess I'd have to play the hand straight without the double-down. Know it hurts in the long-termbut I'm only intereested in the one-time shot at doublingthe bankroll.
 
kirby said:
Not really. I don't understand how single bets at each casino with a 0.5% edge transltes into a 12% edge overall. Seems to me I'lll win half the time and lose half the time. Factor in blackjacks at 3:2 payout an I'm marginally ahead.

The 12% is not the edge but the 'hold' that the casino gets on the game in an average month. For example, you cash in $500 and place 100 $25 bets in an hour's play. On average, at 0.5% house edge, (which is normally higher with bad players), you will have bet a total of $2,500 and will be down 0.5% of that i.e. $12.50. After, say, 4 hours of play, you get up losing $50, so the 'hold' that the casino keeps is $50 which equates to 10% of your buy-in.

With Blackjack you do not win 1/2 the time and lose 1/2 the time - you lose more often than you win. The 3/2 payout on 'Blackjack' is already factored in with the house edge of 0.5%. If you got paid 'Blackjacks' at 'even money' then you would be a horrific 2.3% worse off i.e. house edge of 2.8% :eek:
 
It all depends why you claim bonuses really... For me, it's a bit of extra 'playing money' to mess about with and hopefully hit it big. I honestly don't ever think about wagering requirements and, touch wood, have never had an issue cashing out. Mind you, I've zero'd out far more often than I've cashed out!
 
kirby said:
I know that's what Price-Waterhouse certifies but I imagine it (1) includes video poker with a 98% payou, (2) averages higher payouts on $1 lines and lower payouts on penny lines and (3) assume successful bonus rounds which are not really too likely on a $50 bankroll. So for my penny slots I'll stick with Vegas average of 90%. Actual mileage may vary.
If you're playing at a Microgaming casino the regular slots like Thunderstruck, Tally Ho etc. have been shown to have a 4-5% edge based on a huge amount of experience plus there's even a thread on here where Kasino King & Zoozie and others (I think) actually worked out the figure using all the possible reel positions. The amount you bet shouldn't matter, though I'd agree you can't really rely on slot payouts as casinos are more or less free to do what they want.
kirby said:
Not really. I don't understand how single bets at each casino with a 0.5% edge transltes into a 12% edge overall. Seems to me I'lll win half the time and lose half the time. Factor in blackjacks at 3:2 payout an I'm marginally ahead.
I simply meant that if you "bonus" bet $25 of your own money to start with you'll lose about $25*0.5% (approx. house edge for BJ) =12.5 cents. You're not getting a real bonus, so overall if you stop immediately after the bet that's what you'll lose at each casino. Of course if you keep playing you'll lose more on average.
 

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