MG independent audit

[Rusty]

Over a week ago I made yet another complaint to an MG casino and was given the standard BS reply but offered an independent audit of my MG account.

Well this I could not resist so I requested one and asked in particular how it could be that everytime I hit a win my payout fell imediately to <30% payout.

I play between 9 and 12 lines and almost without fail after hitting a decent win or feature I will hit less than 5 winning spins in a 100.
Hardly random.

Funny, I have not heard anything yet so I have given them a reminder.

What are the odds on me hearing anything other than;

Bla bla bla bullshit bullshit our RNG is independently bullshit bullshit bla bla.

and actually getting an explanation of how the same patterns keep recurring in a supposedly random game.

current odds ;

bla bla bullshit bullshit 1/9
No reply Ev
Explanation 1000/1

Good luck, ya'all

 

[KasinoKing]

I play between 9 and 12 lines and almost without fail after hitting a decent win or feature I will hit less than 5 winning spins in a 100.
Hardly random.

Rusty mate please! If you really believe that to be true, either:
a) Stop playing NOW! (forever).
or
b) After your decent hit - stop playing that slot & move to another one.

I think 'a' is the most suitable option in your case.
KK

 

[Rusty]

What?
So says the MG affiliate

Why would I stop when everytime I play it proves how crooked they are

Do you really think they are random KK?

Don't answer that your soul is danger

Thanks for the advice though, I'm sure you mean well.

 

[aminair]

Rusty mate please! If you really believe that to be true, either:
a) Stop playing NOW! (forever).
or
b) After your decent hit - stop playing that slot & move to another one.

I think 'a' is the most suitable option in your case.
KK

How condescending is your reply?

Rusty is obviously not a child and is quite capable of making his/her own decisions!

Your second option b seems fair enough, but if the game is truly random which I highly doubt too, then there shouldn't be the necessity to change games at all.

 

[Zoozie]

Do you really think they are random KK?

I really do think the MG slots are random. There is no reason to why MG would make them otherwise, since 95% slots already are unbeatable moneymachines. Besides Kimss also collected insane amout of spin data, showing they the reels was non-weigthed.
However for the old 5-line video slot Kimss results also showed these indeed were weighted to much surprise.

But if you say the old 5-reel MG video slots of non-(uniform) random, then you are right.

 

[Simmo!]

I'm with Zoozie. Easy to think stuff ain't random when you're on a losing streak. But I've had two huge hits on one MG slot inside 3 spins before now, so to me they are random. But I can see Rusty's point - it just dont feel that way sometimes

 

[GaryWatson]

Well if you consider that a non random payout of 95% makes everyone a loser, it goes to figure that a winning streak wont last. If you are winning, you are going against the grain every time you login and play.

A winning streak may continue but more than likely it will go the other way.

Also, some people chose to increase their stakes after a big win, causing more extreme fluctuations, making or breaking the player.

I'm not even going to guess if the % are what sites say but I doubt if an external auditor could either

 

[Rusty]

I do appreciate what all of you are saying but surely your playlogs look the same as mine.
I wish I could just copy and paste the damn things.

My problem is not really with the overall payout though this is well under 90% for me at all MG's together (prob more like 80%) it is with the patterns that suggest that while there is a random element there is also a hidden weighting(handicap system) playing in the background.

There is no other way to explain how playing min 9 lines that everytime a big win hits or a feature pays well there is a run of 100 to 200 spins of <50% return and during these droughts the wild/scatter symbols all but dissapear.

It is not even subtle so I am amazed that so many of you do not see it.

I respect all your opinions and I know Zoozie and kimms have done some great work on this but it is a false premise that there is no reason for the slots to be anything other than completely random so therefor they must be fair.

A random slot with dynamic weighting can GAURENTEE a software provider's client any profit they desire and they GAURENTEE profit in the short term (very important) with no nasty surprises making it a very appealing investment.
Better still there is no way you can ever be found out or prosecuted, anyway you can still claim the slots are random.

A truely random slot with a 97% payout could really hurt an operator if a few high rollers get lucky.

Look at it this way;
You open your honest Casino and high rollers hit the jackpots, ok another one isnt won for ages and by the end of the Year you would be in profit but too late you have severe cash flow problems.
Even worse if said high roller/s decide to play elsewhere and lose all your money at another Casino, you are stuffed!

So MG offer the weighted slot sollution so which do you choose?

Come on it is really not such a large step to believe that is the truth.

Now I will make a solemn promise to never bring up the subject again in any other thread because I know I am getting on peoples nerves and it is fair comment to say stop playing but it is also fair to say people need to know this stuff.

I genuinely think it will be interesting to see what response I get from MG on my audit.

All the best to one all.

 

[vinylweatherman]

Rusty,

I have always had my "gut feeling" that there is some kind of dynamic weighting, or "streak" in MG games, but within this, they are essentially random.
I have this feeling that this weighting fluctuates something like a sine wave, meaning that there is a streak cycle where a spell of decent hits will be followed by a long dry spell, which in turn is followed by a series of decent hits. The payout is still 95% though, and randomness does not guarantee that either the positive spell will produce GREAT wins, nor that the dry spell will not contain one really BIG win.

One easy experiment, play Cabin Fever, and note when the sun bonus symbol comes into view on reel one, I challenge you NOT to see signs of this "streak cycle".

I have done this, and had the sun in view every 2 to 3 spins, yet at other times I can go 100 spins and not see it once. The FREQUENCY of these two states is far too great given that they fall at either extreme of the expected distribution for a randomly delivered first reel.

Rather than requesting a BS "independent audit" which will show you got as close as expected to 95% given the number of spins you played, request your playlogs in machinable format, such as Excel, so that you can do your OWN analyses on whatever statistic takes your fancy. If MG have nothing to hide, they would have no problem with this.

One thing they DID have to hide was the weighting on the older video slots, and this DID mean players who chose to play fewer lines were indeed cheated by the software, as they received a far lower payout than the expected 95% by leaving out the higher numbered lines. MG should have made this CLEAR to players that choosing to discard winlines would reduce their payout, or should have designed the slots to disallow reduction of paylines.

One clever trick would be to play 5 reel drive, a HUGE number of spins, but only on 5 lines.... then..... DEMAND and independent audit of your payout, this would REALLY get them worried, as it would show something like 88%, and the more spins in the audit, the harder it would be to claim the game is performing properly.
If it is possible to get logs and audits from play mode*, all the better, as this experiment will cost nothing, and a truly monumental number of spins can be performed, and MG would either have to concede the point, or state that play mode is different to real mode, which they are on record of having denied in the past.

* I think it might be - play mode seems specific to the PC used, so maybe the logs are stored somewhere on the local machine. I did an experiment at Golden Reef that PROVES play mode states are local, and not on the casino server as are REAL mode games.

 

[Rusty]

Thanks VWM, very much in-line with my own thinking and your idea of play logs in machine format is a good One.
God knows how long it would take for me to troll through over a Million spins though!

The problem for me is that this manufactured roller coaster ride is all well and good and may well deliver 90% + payouts at several MG's (Though I am sure the % can be adjusted by the operators) but who wants to play slots that are just calculating machines?

I would much rather play a truely random slot that does not take your wagering history into account.
Sure you might have an awful run of bad luck and unlike MG or RTG never be sure where your next win was coming from.
But on the other hand you would know that hitting a big win wasn't going to result in you having to endure a nightmare spell of nothingness until you were back in the Red.

VWM your observation and similar observations I and no doubt many others have made offer undeniable evidence of dynamic weighting yet many do not want to listen for various reasons.

I know many are tired of me banging this drum but would it not be nice to be able to play genuine random slots at your favourite Casino?

One Day, one Day.

 

[james01]

It doesn't make sense that they'd be weighted the way you suggest. It's too easy for a player to just cash out as soon as they hit a win.

What would make more sense is that you'd only hit a win after X number of spins - when you've already spent the value of the win.

Additionally, it's pretty much a given that if you don't play full bet on all paylines, you are playing worse odds. This is doubly true of progressive jackpots, which almost uniformly don't give you a crack at the progressive if you're not playing all paylines.

Basically, you gotta play max bet every round to get the odds they promise. Of course, then you're spending big bucks each spin so you can't get into enough spins to hit anything good.

Now I remember why I tend to play in play mode...

 

[vinylweatherman]

It doesn't make sense that they'd be weighted the way you suggest. It's too easy for a player to just cash out as soon as they hit a win.

What would make more sense is that you'd only hit a win after X number of spins - when you've already spent the value of the win.

Additionally, it's pretty much a given that if you don't play full bet on all paylines, you are playing worse odds. This is doubly true of progressive jackpots, which almost uniformly don't give you a crack at the progressive if you're not playing all paylines.

Basically, you gotta play max bet every round to get the odds they promise. Of course, then you're spending big bucks each spin so you can't get into enough spins to hit anything good.

Now I remember why I tend to play in play mode...

WRONG - for a random slot anyway. It is ONLY true where, in the case of a progressive, only ythe highest numbered payline is eligible to win a progressive payout.

Rusty,

I would much rather play a truely random slot that does not take your wagering history into account.

Better keep away from Treasure Ireland and Chief's Fortune then

 

[Jasminebed]

Not all that easy

...It doesn't make sense that they'd be weighted the way you suggest. It's too easy for a player to just cash out as soon as they hit a win....

Oh, am I the only one to succumb to RWT(Reverse Withdrawal Temptation). Or figuring that I am playing with "their money"?

I do think that the slots on reputable platforms are "random". But this does not mean that for 4,000,000 possible combinations of the patterns, there are 4,000,000 possible outcomes you will see on your computer, or a land-based slot machine. The RNG will spin BILLIONS, not MILLIONS of possible combinations and then assign a certain percent of losing/winning spins to a set of combinations less than 4,000,000 in total, and a larger than should be propotional number of the displays for losing spins are those that are "almost" wins.

It's as close to random as it is going to come. And there is a whole field of mathematics that deals with "Streak Theory". And as long as you hit streaks in a random fashion then it holds. In fact, it would be an anomaly not to hit streaks.

And despite all my knowlege, I am lured by those little wheels going around. The element of suprise. And winning streaks do happen. They do not generally last as long as losing streaks.

And I know that the casinos profit on every slot spin over the long haul. Why would they have to cheat?

Does not mean that some casinos do cheat, but IMO that is mostly through denying or delaying payouts, rather than the games themselves. The major gaming platforms seem pretty reliable in as far as randomness goes.

And I hardly ever quit right after a big win. Usually up my bet for a bit to see if it is indeed my "lucky day". Most times it is not, but sometime it is, and that is what make us slot players GAMBLERS.

Einstein said that God does not play dice with with universe. Who else would he play against?

 

[gerilege]

Additionally, it's pretty much a given that if you don't play full bet on all paylines, you are playing worse odds. This is doubly true of progressive jackpots, which almost uniformly don't give you a crack at the progressive if you're not playing all paylines.

It does not hold in general. On many slots you are getting worse odds if you play all lines, as Zoozie showed in another thread earlier for some of the Net Ent slots, and I believe it's also true for some Boss Media slots. Basically the slots which pay less for max lines are those on which you have to collect 3 symbols in a payline in order to get the bonus, and the bonus payout is dependent on the line bet, and not on the total bet, and some of the winlines have 3 common reel positions.

Other topic.

What is really interesting, that in case of the old weighted MG 5-reel slots, there are some winlines which would pay more than 100% playing them alone. The problem is, that you can't select them individually (dislike you can in case of Cleopatra for instance). You can only select line 2 and 3 after line 1 on 5reel drive or What a hoot for instance. If you play these games, you will realize that line 2 and 3 will perform better than line 1. That is because the first two positions on line 2 and 3 are also part of two other lines each, and that slots pay out for some 2-of-a-kinds.

So another idea would be to play on 5reel drive on 9 or 3 lines, then ask for a payout report for different winlines.

 

[lauram]

Ok i have a example they say spins are random right. Now im in the tourney
where u get spin after spin. Ok so after few spins in oldest goes well hit spin button i said i did he goes nope same spin i saw min ago. Really hmm so we watched closer in at least 20 to 30 spins i had same line up 10 times. So it seems dead spins are the same over and over how that can be if its random same lines same reel spots. We started to write down the spots they landed in.
Not sure if this helped or hurt topic.

 

[Jufo]

Player community auditing

Rusty,
Rather than requesting a BS "independent audit" which will show you got as close as expected to 95% given the number of spins you played, request your playlogs in machinable format, such as Excel, so that you can do your OWN analyses on whatever statistic takes your fancy. If MG have nothing to hide, they would have no problem with this.

I would take this one step further and let the player community do the audit themselves. Why rely on some independent audit when you can collectively gather data, combine it into one huge play session and then analyse that? So it would be an Open Source audit conducted by the players themselves. For such a huge sample any statistical bias in the probabilities or streaks would be revealed immediately. Just recall the English Harbour case and the big role of player community in solving that.

I have a done a model template to test game fairness and natural streakiness in Blackjack but the same model can be used in any other game. The model calculates actual number of streaks, compares it to expected values and determines whether the observations match expectations closely enough. You can try out the model at

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

Right now the model just calculates frequencies from random data. What is needed is to replace this random data with real playing data.

 

[KasinoKing]

Ok i have a example they say spins are random right. Now im in the tourney
where u get spin after spin. Ok so after few spins in oldest goes well hit spin button i said i did he goes nope same spin i saw min ago. Really hmm so we watched closer in at least 20 to 30 spins i had same line up 10 times. So it seems dead spins are the same over and over how that can be if its random same lines same reel spots. We started to write down the spots they landed in.
Not sure if this helped or hurt topic.

If you could tell us which slot(s) you are talking about I think it could be valuable input!