Are RNG's Truly Random? Not On your Life

[mathsboy1975]

Yes, that's what I was getting at - it's all HOW the testing of the software is done. Would it be possible to get this sort of reactive mechanism past the checking system?

This is the crux of the issue for me. There are many casino reps here, and likely reps for game providers like MG, Netent etc, former employees in the gaming industry etc. Surely someone somewhere must know the criteria for testing the fairness of the games and you would think that these criteria (assuming they exist) should be in the public domain. I cannot see any reason why it needs to be confidential. Do game providers need to submit source code or are the games simply black box tested to ascertain acceptable RTP???

As a hypothetical situation, let's say a new company has developed a range of new slots and were proposing to sell them to an online casino. How does the process start? Does the casino say OK and no questions asked, or do the game providers obtain some kind of industry defined "fairness" certificate before a casino will even consider their product??
If there is an industry standard fairness criteria, does it require submission of source code in order to have the fairness ascertained??


Are any reps from casinos or game providers willing to enter into the discussion to put all of this to bed once and for all???

 

[cncas123]

I am still struggling to see how it can be a truly random number generator, particularly for Roulette. What period does the RTP for the roulette run over? We know that the casino is going to make a profit, thats what it is there for, so what happens if the house edge is calculated over a year, and on the final day of the casinos financial year it is sitting well behind its edge figure, does the RNG then produce only losing numbers so that the casino makes its profit? This is maybe too simplistic a view, but can it really be truly random if there has to be a built in profit?

 

[RichieRespin]

If every game provider has to submit their source code to an external agency for fairness monitoring then that is great - but is this actually a requirement before a gaming license can be granted??

This got me digging, and I found the Danish Gambling Authority's guidelines. It's even stricter than I thought:

For example, this is the "rules" for how changes are allowed to be made to a gaming system, how a new game is allowed to be added, etc. Even minor changes to games, such as bug fixes or glitches, has to be reported and a change log from the source code has to be supplied, basically to show "This is what it used to look like", and "this is what the source code looks like now".

Old / Expired Link

There are more files on that site, if you feel like digging into the wonderful world of regulations and compliance

Old / Expired Link

 

[mathsboy1975]

I am still struggling to see how it can be a truly random number generator, particularly for Roulette. What period does the RTP for the roulette run over? We know that the casino is going to make a profit, thats what it is there for, so what happens if the house edge is calculated over a year, and on the final day of the casinos financial year it is sitting well behind its edge figure, does the RNG then produce only losing numbers so that the casino makes its profit? This is maybe too simplistic a view, but can it really be truly random if there has to be a built in profit?

Profit and loss does not need to come into it at all with roulette. If you can generate an integer from 0-36 inclusive such that long term every number has the same chance of occurring, then the fact that the casino offers odds of 35-1 for an outcome with probability of 1/37 is sufficient to guarantee long term profit. The house edge is generated from offering payout odds less than the actual odds that correspond to the true chance of it actually happening. Think of it like this - you play heads or tails on a coin toss. If the bookie offers 5/6 for each outcome they make money automatically because the odds corresponding to the actual probability are 1/1 (evens).
This is why people want to know the internal game mechanics because on the surface it really is just a case of requiring a random number from 0-36. The game rules do the rest for the casino.

 

[RichieRespin]

I am still struggling to see how it can be a truly random number generator, particularly for Roulette. What period does the RTP for the roulette run over? We know that the casino is going to make a profit, thats what it is there for, so what happens if the house edge is calculated over a year, and on the final day of the casinos financial year it is sitting well behind its edge figure, does the RNG then produce only losing numbers so that the casino makes its profit? This is maybe too simplistic a view, but can it really be truly random if there has to be a built in profit?

A roulette table and wheel with perfect randomness has the house edge built in, the "0".

Remember, the house edge is just an edge, a small but significant bias for the House. The house can still lose: One player can bet a billion on "23" and walk away with 35 billion. But over time, with bet levels that are relatively low, the House can always expect to make a profit, thanks to the house edge.

The RNG is not allowed to be anything but random. It has to be random, never care about the history of the results, etc.

 

[mathsboy1975]

This got me digging, and I found the Danish Gambling Authority's guidelines. It's even stricter than I thought:

For example, this is the "rules" for how changes are allowed to be made to a gaming system, how a new game is allowed to be added, etc. Even minor changes to games, such as bug fixes or glitches, has to be reported and a change log from the source code has to be supplied, basically to show "This is what it used to look like", and "this is what the source code looks like now".

Old / Expired Link

There are more files on that site, if you feel like digging into the wonderful world of regulations and compliance

Well now we are getting somewhere. If the same applies with the gambling authorities for other countries then assuming that the code is validated by competent and non corrupt statisticians and programmers then surely the conspiracy theorists must admit defeat??

 

[RichieRespin]

Well now we are getting somewhere. If the same applies with the gambling authorities for other countries then assuming that the code is validated by competent and non corrupt statisticians and programmers then surely the conspiracy theorists must admit defeat??

Denmark and Italy are the two really "serious" regulated markets, from what I have gathered. I am guessing that there are less harsh markets, where it might be less tight to be allowed a licence.

The documents for an Alderney license seem to be available here: Old / Expired Link

However, it is late on a Sunday night, I can't spend more time googling for documents here

 

[mathsboy1975]

Denmark and Italy are the two really "serious" regulated markets, from what I have gathered. I am guessing that there are less harsh markets, where it might be less tight to be allowed a licence.

The documents for an Alderney license seem to be available here: Old / Expired Link

However, it is late on a Sunday night, I can't spend more time googling for documents here

Thanks Richie. Based on what you are saying is if you see that a game provider has its games approved of by a strict regulator, then assuming no source code variation on a per country basis then that game is probably good to go anywhere in terms of fairness.

 

[Harry_BKK]

I'm not going to stoop to "dreamland" insults. Have you _ever_ had your own software checked by any kind of authoritative testing house? I have. I know the rigor they use. And, no, it doesn't require a "software genius" to detect foul play in a slot game server, AND I think that if you have software auditors who check server implementations from a large number of software vendors, they *ARE* experts. No one else on the planet will have spent that much time looking at different types of server solutions as those guys.
I have had code vetted by testing houses, and I *know* that they are good.
Of course, rogue providers will have rogue solutions, but it is a vast step from a few historical anecdotes, to say that vendors like MG, IGT, WMS or NetEnt, who have been vetted by several test houses, by several authorities, in pretty harsh countries like Denmark and Italy, are cheating both the players, the test houses AND keeping all casinos in the dark about this.

I was in no way writing that to insult you. I was referring to authorities caring about people, in this case us players, if you read the complete paragraph:

That reads itself like something from dreamland Richie. Authorities, agencies that care about players, that would be something new to me.

In contrary i accept your comments that a software is tested and re-tested many times before it is approved.

I had in 2 tests similar results which to me was confirming what i concluded. Since the first test was only about 30,000 spins and the second 250,000 spins, however, a normal slot has about 50.000.000 possible outcomes, meaning that would represent only 0.06% and 0.5% respectively, so rather small sample sizes. Although in normal industry mass production the second sample size is sufficient and accepted for quality checks according to ISO norms. I assume authorities to work on similar rules regarding sample sizes when doing their checks.

Hence, i will perform one more test over 1Mio spins or 2% which will take me about 6-9 months, maybe 1 year to complete. Just to put my mind at ease and have something to keep me busy

 

[mclee321]

Prefixing a 'xxx is fixed', with 'i'm a mathematician', makes your observations no less bonkers or tedious than the usual pile of tin-foil hat nonsense often spouted. All you will do is rile up the mob.

I'd understand if this was based on dodgy software at a clip joint online casino, but you are talking major software provider's. They would lose everything if it was found out they had been cheating clients at roulette for over a decade.

You are suggesting the RNG picks a number depending if there is not a bet on it? And it wasn't until you investigated this was found out? After the independent RNG testing? After countless years?

I apologise for being blunt, but this is getting so old now.

 

[brianmon]

Hmmmmm.....

Aren't all the games supposedly tested periodically too? monthly/quarterly?

There must be a few thousand different games between all the suppliers.
And you need to play at least a million spins/hands to get an accurate result?

Even by accessing the games servers directly (bypassing the pretty pictures of reels that we see). The independent testing company would also need to write a unique piece of code to access each game/slot especially with slots, with their varied bonus rounds (picking this that and the other, or even choosing which bonus round to opt for, unless of course the bonus rounds are predetermined ???), and the different protocols and formats used to 'take' a spin, and read the result.

I wonder how long it took kktmd (sorry if i got his username wrong) to do his one million spins on each of the games he's tested, accessing the servers directly? then multiply that by a few thousand different games?


That must be a full time job for a very large team of people !!!!!!

 

[GhostRidah]

Prefixing a 'xxx is fixed', with 'i'm a mathematician', makes your observations no less bonkers or tedious than the usual pile of tin-foil hat nonsense often spouted. All you will do is rile up the mob.

I'd understand if this was based on dodgy software at a clip joint online casino, but you are talking major software provider's. They would lose everything if it was found out they had been cheating clients at roulette for over a decade.

You are suggesting the RNG picks a number depending if there is not a bet on it? And it wasn't until you investigated this was found out? After the independent RNG testing? After countless years?

I apologise for being blunt, but this is getting so old now.

There have been proven cases in the past regarding corrupt software to rule out the possibility wouldn't seem logical based on the past history and the imperfection of human beings
: that said everything must be proven and based on fact .
Also RNG testing would possibly not reveal all the facts as one could always hide things corruption exists and it always will : but sooner or later the truth always comes to the light.

 

[dealer wins]

When it comes to online roulette/blackjack etc I firmly believe they are not random. Played many many times, and always feels different than when playing live games or at a land casino. Even when winning they dont feel right. 100% not truly random IMHO.

 

[RichieRespin]

Aren't all the games supposedly tested periodically too? monthly/quarterly?

There must be a few thousand different games between all the suppliers.
And you need to play at least a million spins/hands to get an accurate result?

Even by accessing the games servers directly (bypassing the pretty pictures of reels that we see). The independent testing company would also need to write a unique piece of code to access each game/slot especially with slots, with their varied bonus rounds (picking this that and the other, or even choosing which bonus round to opt for, unless of course the bonus rounds are predetermined ???), and the different protocols and formats used to 'take' a spin, and read the result.

I wonder how long it took kktmd (sorry if i got his username wrong) to do his one million spins on each of the games he's tested, accessing the servers directly? then multiply that by a few thousand different games?


That must be a full time job for a very large team of people !!!!!!

This is why you only check the changes that has been made. Each piece of software gets a hash value calculated on it, a check sum that will immediately show if there is any discrepancy between the version of the game running now and the game they tested a year ago. It's like a finger print for each game.

The only test that needs to be run are these finger print checks. If they are identical, you know for a fact that nothing has changed.

 

[Devontheman]

No way in a million years fobts are random

 

[snorky510238]

No way in a million years fobts are random

CORRECT. Play the roulette for long enough and you would have to be blind not to see what’s happening. My advice to anyone would be do not even put a pound in one they are hideously rigged and have an extremely low percentage payout and your chances of having a winning session are slimmer than slim.

 

[Devontheman]

Yeah I played 130 on em in last 2 days 3 diff shops 4 diff occasions small bets still didn’t win anything once yet there random yet you don’t even win some of the time where’s online you win some you lose some constantly next door to jackpot numbers take money off a number that numbers comes in there rigged to the hilt

 

[dunover]

Hmmmmm.....

Aren't all the games supposedly tested periodically too? monthly/quarterly?

There must be a few thousand different games between all the suppliers.
And you need to play at least a million spins/hands to get an accurate result?

Even by accessing the games servers directly (bypassing the pretty pictures of reels that we see). The independent testing company would also need to write a unique piece of code to access each game/slot especially with slots, with their varied bonus rounds (picking this that and the other, or even choosing which bonus round to opt for, unless of course the bonus rounds are predetermined ???), and the different protocols and formats used to 'take' a spin, and read the result.

I wonder how long it took kktmd (sorry if i got his username wrong) to do his one million spins on each of the games he's tested, accessing the servers directly? then multiply that by a few thousand different games?


That must be a full time job for a very large team of people !!!!!!

I remember having a 'cheat' programme on my old computer that I downloaded, either kktmd or a Norwegian guy PM'd me a source and it could pull tens of results a second from the server. They linked it up to spreadsheets I believe, which was beyond me at the time.

 

[snorky510238]

Yeah I played 130 on em in last 2 days 3 diff shops 4 diff occasions small bets still didn’t win anything once yet there random yet you don’t even win some of the time where’s online you win some you lose some constantly next door to jackpot numbers take money off a number that numbers comes in there rigged to the hilt

Yeah I spent a long time studying the behaviour of FOBTS and they are an absolute disgrace and 100% not random. I wish people would vote with their wallet and stop playing them. IMO online works on exactly the same principle, in that I mean games are not random but I do believe the ‘top casinos’ run the games at the said percentage giving you a much better chance of winning. I have gambled everywhere all my life and take it from someone who has a lot of experience if you are going to play slots, online at an accredited site is the best place to do so and gives you the best chance of winning by some distance compared with land based casinos, arcades, betting shops etc. Infact there is no comparison.

 

[Devontheman]

Since I only play roulette I can defiantly say you have alooot more chance than winning money online than on a FOBT I don’t play slots much

 

[dpp00]

sometimes its great to be dumb cause ive read everything sofar and i have no idea what anyone's talking about "phew" back to eating crisps