Question Variance and RTP% over time - Still try to grasp the concept.

[lotusch]

Hey guys,

I still try to grasp the concept of how a slot exactly pays you back that 96-97% over time.
More and more I come across slots I play that are not even coming close to pay me that % even after many thousands of spins.

Best example is Bust the Bank,I am playing this slot very often at different casino's and especially on one particular casino I am really down on this slot.
Gave it a swing again today and it triggered the free spins 4 times within 150 spins which was great and to be expected as last session I did not hit one single free spin round in nearly 1k spins.
Ok fair enough,that's the variance in the free spins and I can live with that.

What I try to grasp here is:
Let's say I am down 1000 Euro on this slot over time and at todays session it gives me 4 free spin bonusses in 150 spins.
Would you then not expect at least 1 free spin session with a decent win?
Well I got 4 crap ones with max pay of 40x bet on €1.50 spins.

So lost another deposit and now prolly it is gonna take loads of spins again to get the free spins so more money for me to invest.

How on earth will a slot like this ever gonna give that 97% back.

As all I do is keep playing and keep depositing.

Is it me or are MGS slots these days all insane high variance?

I have had sessions where I had to deposit 200 or 300 Euro on a certain MGS slot and it would nearly always come back with a decent hit but lately it is to cry for....

Is it payback time because I had 1 awesome hit of 2500x stake a few weeks ago?
No MGS slot on ANY casino is being friendly for me since that incredible hit...

 

[Tirilej]

I don't think its hard to understand at all.

The game will pay back that %, but probably not to you

You can compare it with me being up several thousands at Nordicbet. Today I closed my account.
Someone have to pay for that money that I walk away with and it's not the casino

So one win and another lose and you have to start counting every session and every spin as a new one, or you will get crazy believing you will get something back.

 

[paul7388]

the RTP simply means what the slot pays out not what it pays you, if thousands of players play a slot for a month and its set at 96% then over that month it should pay about that. But some players will win thousands and other players will lose most of the time and never get a win on a certain slot. and remember if one player plays a slot at 95% for a long time even tho they lose all their money they could still hit the 95% RTP as for every £100 they play they should lose £5, so if you continually spin you will get small wins but in end you might still lose all your money but you might still have hit RTP.

 

[lotusch]

I don't think its hard to understand at all.

The game will pay back that %, but probably not to you

You can compare it with me being up several thousands at Nordicbet. Today I closed my account.
Someone have to pay for that money that I walk away with and it's not the casino

So one win and another lose and you have to start counting every session and every spin as a new one, or you will get crazy believing you will get something back.

Ehm is that 97% not a figure that should be accomplished by every single player on the long run?

 

[paul7388]

no that 97%is what the slot pays out some players will win thousands and others will lose thousands in the long run, theres no guarantee any one player will ever get the rtp of certain slot

 

[goatwack]

Well the RTP of most slots is hard to comprehend as estimates are based on an inderterminable ongoing number of spins, meaning that ultimately you could go thousands of spins on a slot without even coming close to meeting that criteria.

Ultimately all one can do is to calculate each session on a particular slot, move away from it seems like a losing session and run for the hills if you get a big hit. Hoping to recoup your losses on a high variance beast like Bust the Bank over prolonged time can only end in tears given the small percentage of play!

 

[lotusch]

LOL so I call myself officially a NOOB now!
Nice to know,might come in handy for the future and not keep chasing a big win on slots when behind.
Now I can just leave them and just play them once in a while not to expect anything..

I really didn't know this guys...

I thought 97% or whatever % was for each and every individual player...

This makes sense in a way now...

Will defo change my view about playing online slots...

 

[lockinlove]

They should change RTP% to RPRT - Right place, right time

 

[paul7388]

lol lotusch, but another example would be say you hit a jackpt on a game for £100,000 then if rtp wasper person you would never ever hit another win on that slot for rest of your life which is so unlikely lol

 

[Tirilej]

RTP or TRTP are never easy to explain or understand.
What you can do if you want more information is to do a search here. It has been discussed a lot, and I must admit that only get a part of it. To understand it all you probably need to understand maths too...and that doesn't interests me.

Do a search for the words RTP or TRTP and you will have reading for a months I think

 

[Mousey]

I know I'm repeating myself here, but I'm old have that privilege

I wish each and every casino had one slot machine that paid out 97% on each and every spin. i.e.: bet a dollar, win .97, bet another dollar, win .97, and so on and so on. It would be boring, and everyone would lose, but at least no one would have to worry about ever winning.

 

[spintee]

Your loss is somebody else's gain & visa virsa, For me I have been on a terrible run the last few months, I keep thinking its got to give me something soon, Im getting no where, Today had had less than x10 bet back on mg platform, around 400 spins and only 1 free spin round, Its starting to become a joke, When I 1st started yrs back I had put in less than £30 all total on sites, and playing winspinner 30p play, I got max win spins, 25 I think and bang, 150x bet across multiply lines, endded up with just short 3 grand, I certainly didn't put that in, But I tell you its took a slight more back since

 

[dunover]

Ehm is that 97% not a figure that should be accomplished by every single player on the long run?

Yes, it should. Per player, as you say unless a pooled jackpot game pays a player big.

In the short term player A is on an RTP down-curve, player B on an upward curve. So from the casino's point of view player A is paying for B's winnings, but that's over-simplified - if they both carried on, it's likely that player A would go upward, B downward.

Add all the payouts to players on the upward curve and take off those deposits from those on the downward curve, and the casino will be about 3-4% up.

Exactly who is winning how much and when is down to the vagaries of the RNG.

The thing some posters don't seem to understand is that despite them feeling they've played a game forever, they in fact have only played a few thousand spins at that casino or a few tens of thousands at best. This is simply not enough to guarantee levelling their RTP to TRTP.

Let's say the player expected to level at TRTP in a thousand spins - this would make the games unplayable as player A who was at 145% RTP at a point would usually cash out never to return to the game/casino as he knows he would lose down to 96% between then and 1000 spins, while player B who was at 80% would carry on until he hit the 96% mark which he knew he would achieve by the time he reached a 1000 spins.

As the TRTP is achieved (we have seen the stats to prove it from kktmd etc. on many games) over at least several hundred thousand or in excess of a million spins, we have a sense of unpredictability to make the games fun, plus the casinos know seldom do players play that many spins on any one game ever, thus avoiding the scenario in the paragraph above.

 

[nisosbar]

RTP is a complicated part of slots, as others have pointed out, but for me, the salient thing to remember is the 'random' part.

What makes your game outcome random is that, to simplify, the slot machine is supposed to be designed to deliver an outcome equivalent to picking a numbered ping pong ball from a hat full of 100 ping pong balls. 97 of those balls - for example - pay back the bet, 3 do not pay anything.

What makes the slots exciting is that the games are designed to deliver outcomes such that while the casino still pays out an amount equivalent to those 97 bets, keeping the 3 bets as 'house edge', a fraction of those 97 players will get a payout MORE than 1 bet, a fraction will get less, and some will get nothing.

Obviously, everyone wants to get the largest portion of that 97%, but it depends upon whose ping pong ball is selected. In theory, you could be that person 10 times in a row, or you could NEVER be that person. The house would STILL be paying out that 97%.