low-variance wagering system?

[chop-choi]

I know wagering systems don't work, but I'd like to find something to help me meet W/R's a little faster, without subjecting myself to too much variance. Any ideas?

 

[KasinoKing]

Yeah - stop being an impatient bonus hunter and try to enjoy the whole gambling experience!

 

[Stanford]

I know wagering systems don't work, but I'd like to find something to help me meet W/R's a little faster, without subjecting myself to too much variance. Any ideas?

You have opposing goals. Variance is reduced by the number of trials and by the flatness of the wager. Low and slow is the way to go.

However, I don't mind the gamble. So I play higher amounts and give the casino a shot at my money.

Now you may want to bend the distribution of the dollars to something more to your liking. Reading the post here it seems most of these players like positive progressions. You will win less often but bigger when you do.

Some seem to like negative progressions. These are great till you hit those rare but occurring long losing streaks. Then you lose quicker.

You just have to do what fits you.

Try this - in practice mode. Play 20 wagers flat. At the end of the wagers, raise your bet either $1 or 1 unit if you are behind more than 3 bets. Repeat the process at the new betting amount.

You can determine your own drop back rule. Drop back after winning 3 in a row and start a new series. Or at any time during the series, drop back if ahead by 3 bets. Or at the end of the series, drop back if ahead by 3 bets.

You will be betting more and you might get done a bit quicker. It won't change a thing in the long run. It may be more entertaining for you. But your variance will increase.

You might think about betting the balance at some point. Say when you have lost half your betting balance or half you initial deposit. However, if wagering requirements carryover and you play a lot, you will end up with more wagering the next time if you lose.

I think the most popular of the betting systems among long term system players is Oscars Grind, which I will post if someone wants it.

Stanford.

 

[chop-choi]

Yeah - stop being an impatient bonus hunter and try to enjoy the whole gambling experience!

There are people who love action and others who love money. The first group is called suckers, and the second is called professional gamblers, and it was a cinch which one I wanted to be. ---Amarillo Slim

 

[lanidar]

Yeah - stop being an impatient bonus hunter and try to enjoy the whole gambling experience!

With all due respect....
Isn't the idea of playing online to win and keep as much as you can? How can one enjoy "the whole gambling experience" if you lose?
I'm here to win as much as I can in the shortest period of time.
I'm not here to watch my money deminish as I enjoy "the gambling experience".

 

[bethug]

Amen John

 

[lanidar]

Amen John

Thank you SIR!!! ​

If I wanted "to enjoy the whole gambling experience" I'd go to Vegas or AC where there's free shows, free food, free drinks and free rooms.
There's bells and whistles...lights and glamor.
Everything is open 24 hours a day. They're never closed.

When I'm home sitting here at my desk...I'm working and I'm here to make money not to
"to enjoy the whole gambling experience."​

 

[lanidar]

I think the most popular of the betting systems among long term system players is Oscars Grind, which I will post if someone wants it.

If it's not too much trouble I would appreciate it. :notworthy

 

[Stanford]

If it's not too much trouble I would appreciate it. :notworthy

Oscar's Grind

Introduction:

Oscars Grind is a progression that some consider a form of a DAlembert. Reportedly, the first mention of the Grind is in Dr. Allan N. Wilsons, Casino Gamblers Guide. That book is rare now but you can find a discussion of the Grind in Tom Ainslies How to Gamble In A Casino (Win More At Less Risk). The book can be ordered from Amazon for about $10.00.

According to legend, Oscar was a craps player and claimed to have never lost employing his progression. Julian Bruan (famous programmer that worked with Dr. Thorp) simulated the progression. His parameters were a craps player starting with a $1 betting unit and a $500 per wager house limit. With those parameters, Braun found that the shooter would only reach the house limit about once every 4,250 sessions. He wouldnt lose often but when he did, the loss would be about $13.000. Accordingly, most players dont play Oscar in its pure form. After I describe the mechanics, I will address how some modify the progression to avert that huge loss.

The Progression:

Oscar is designed to win 1 unit per series. A series is however many rounds its takes to win 1 unit. For example, you bet 1 unit on the pass line and roll 7. You win. The series is over. But what if one loses? Then the series continues with these rules:

1. Never bet more than it takes to win one unit.
2. Raise the wager 1 unit after a win if the existing bet will not recover prior losses plus a 1-unit profit.
3. Only decrease a wager to comply with rule 1 or if the series has ended with a 1-unit profit.
4. After a loss, the wager always remains the same.

It really is pretty simple. Follow this example:

Lets say a craps player loses six pass line bets in a row. He never raised his bet in accordance with Rule 4. He wins the next bet so in total he is now down only 5 units. He now bets 2 units (Rule 2) and loses making his net loss 7 units. He bets 2 units again (Rule 4) and this time wins leaving him 5 units down again. In keeping with Rule 2, he raises his bet to 3 units and wins again. Now he is down only 2 units. He doesnt raise his bet again, because that violates rule 1. So he now bets 3 units and loses. He is back to the 5 unit net loss. He bets 3 again (Rule 4) and loses. He is down 8 units. He bets 3 again (Rule 4) and wins returning him to a 5 units cumulative loss. He raises his bet to 4 units and wins. Now he is only 1 unit down. He must bet 2 units in keeping with Rule 1. He wins. The series is over with a 1-unit profit from 15 wagers of which the player lost 9 and won 6.

Modifications:

Ainslie suggest that a recreational gambler budget the amount of money he is willing to risk. He further suggests that the gambler plan the number of sessions he wishes to play. The trip bankroll divided by the number of planned sessions is the session bankroll. Ainslie also advocates that each gambler set a win goal that is less than the amount risked. Such a plan might be as follows:

1. Break your trip bankroll into session bankrolls of 40 units each.
2. End your session anytime you win 20 units.
3. After a winning series, set up your 40 units again, and deposit the one unit win in your winning fund. One player I know calls this, the walking away money.
4. End your session anytime you lose the 40 units in front of you.

The above are session modifications or rules. Ainslie suggest some series modifications as well. He doesnt want the wager to get alarmingly high.
They are as follows:

1. Terminate the series anytime it is more than 10 units down. Just start over with a 1-unit bet.
2. Terminate the series anytime a loss on the next bet would leave it 20 units down. For example, you are betting 11 units and are down a net 9 units. A loss would leave you down more than 20 units. Start the series over.

The above is not very different from how others actually play Oscar. The walking away money concept and the separation of the trip bankroll into distinct session bankrolls reduce the risk of losing it all. But it only helps with a recreational trip. It has no effect on a real gamblers bankroll and a professional has no use for such concepts.

You can alter the dimensions if you like by using smaller session banks and keeping the ratios the same. Or you can ignore the series modifications. Or you can go for bigger wins and fewer winning sessions. But the idea is to exchange fewer session wins to avoid the potential of dipping into the kids college fun. It is in keeping with my first rule of gaming Never risk more than you can afford to lose.

I suggest you start with Ainslies plan and practice at home. Then modify it to suit your personality.

Caveat:

Let me drop in the standard caveat. This is not a plan for getting rich. Progressions change the distribution of dollars won and lost but they dont change the vig in games of independent trials. In blackjack where the cards are psuedo random, no one has been able to empirically demonstrate a long range advantage with this or any other win/loss progression. It all balances out in the long run.

Stanford

 

[KasinoKing]

With all due respect....
Isn't the idea of playing online to win and keep as much as you can? How can one enjoy "the whole gambling experience" if you lose?
I'm here to win as much as I can in the shortest period of time.
I'm not here to watch my money deminish as I enjoy "the gambling experience".

Just for the record, I DO enjoy the whole gambling experience, but I DON'T lose!
With all due respect... It sounds like you guys just deposit for a bonus and then try to play best Blackjack strategy to turn the WR as quickly as possible & escape with as much of the bonus as you can. Well that's just fine if that's your 'thing', but it sounds deadly dull to me! But then I don't claim or aspire to be a professional gambler.
I also only deposit if I get a bonus, but I play a variety of games - all types of card games (except Let-it-Ride-through-your-pockets-sucking-all-your-cash-as-it-goes!), a few slots and the occasional dabble on the Roulette wheel.
My record speaks for itself - I have made profit in 31 of the last 33 months - maybe not the mega-bucks you are seeking, but I am having fun as well. So effectively the casino's are paying me to 'enjoy the gambling experience'!
I certainly would not enjoy it if I was trying to make a living from it, or if I was losing - you're right there! I would just stop.

Also for the record, my best card game for minimum variance over the last 6 months returned +0.14% for $26,301 wagered, but it wasn't Blackjack! I used to do well at BJ, but recently (this year at least) I have found it a struggle at ALL online casino's and my figures also for the last 6 months reflect that; -1.58% on $8,555 wagered. (Note: I don't play, or even know best strategy!)
(Note 2: These figures are not from all the sites I use - only selected Crypto ones where gathering this data is child's play!)

So I'll keep playing with a smile on my face, but I wish the very best of luck to you 'bonus whores'! (You gotta LOVE that expression!)

 

[snuf419]

My view

I see all you guys here are intelligent and I can't disagree with any of you but would like to share my view.

First, I am here to win. As Lanidar points out, if I were to have fun, I would go to a brick and mortar casino. Online casinos suck. I would try'em but I would never stick to them had they no bonuses. However, noticing the increase in WR I know if I were to grind out the WR with $1 bets I would be clicking all day with maybe 10-20% of the bonus left, which most likely would be less than minimum wage, not to mention a pain in the ass if you made mistakes in between and ended up with a loss. So I usually treat the bonus money as money 'borrowed-and-need-not-return' instead of money I plan to pocket, and I bet BIG

I am at a point where the size of the WR no longer matters. I wouldn't care if it was 20X or 30X. I just bet. The result? I am making a lot more money than before and I am having fun in doing it. If I really really want to have even more fun, I would have to make sure I WIN first, then gamble ONLY with the money I won.

I can't agree more, to me at least, winning $ means having fun.

 

[Stanford]

Just for the record, I DO enjoy the whole gambling experience, but I DON'T lose!...

...It sounds like you guys just deposit for a bonus and then try to play best Blackjack strategy to turn the WR as quickly as possible & escape with as much of the bonus as you can. Well that's just fine if that's your 'thing', but it sounds deadly dull to me!...

So I'll keep playing with a smile on my face, but I wish the very best of luck to you 'bonus whores'! (You gotta LOVE that expression!)

Sounds like you are doing just fine.

If blackjack is deadly dull by all means, play as you like. The only thing I adovocate is that players are controlled. They don't reach for a bonus by depositing monies that they can't afford to lose. And they refrain from lots of play on games where the house edge is unknown and hense can be manipulated.

Stanford

 

[DeMango]

Great Thread!
To answer the original post the Wiz says the standard deviation on the banker bet at bacarrat is lowest at .97 at his site. That asuumes of course flat betting.

KasinoKing: I assume bacarrat is the card game you are referring to as to long range profit at Crypto?

Stanford: Many thanks for the Oscar post with comments. I will try to program that in the next year or so. I find that in the very limited ammount of data of programs dealing with negative progressions, there is never a stop loss built into the program! Duhhhh! (Example : Braun) I have found that a stop loss of between 40-60% of initial bankroll will maximize potential profits always depending on actual game variance and honesty. Computer programs (mine) play one way, Playtech plays another - nuff said!

 

[Macgyver]

If blackjack is deadly dull by all means, play as you like. The only thing I adovocate is that players are controlled. They don't reach for a bonus by depositing monies that they can't afford to lose. And they refrain from lots of play on games where the house edge is unknown and hense can be manipulated.

*bolded for emphasis*

I'd also add that learning basic BJ strategy is not difficult at all and would enhance your winnings while you still enjoy the play.

 

[lanidar]

KasinoKing...
Just for the record, I DO enjoy the whole gambling experience, but I DON'T lose!
With all due respect... It sounds like you guys just deposit for a bonus and then try to play best Blackjack strategy to turn the WR as quickly as possible & escape with as much of the bonus as you can. Well that's just fine if that's your 'thing', but it sounds deadly dull to me! But then I don't claim or aspire to be a professional gambler.

Just for the record...I don't lose either. I have the records to prove it. There are a few people out there who know me and KNOW I'm not lying.
And it's true what you say about "making a deposit for a bonus and then try to play best Blackjack strategy to turn the WR as quickly as possible & escape with as much of the bonus as you can". Well...that's me to a tee. I'm a "bonus whore" or what ever else I may be called. I don't make a ton of money...but I do very well. I enjoy when I am winning and get pissed when I'm losing. Just like everyone else.
Having fun is part of the game...but this is what I do and all I want to do is win. And the only time I do have fun is when I win.

 

[bethug]

lanidar, is a very smart man, and i am to have become a bonus whore , Jokeing, I am test stages of a bonus nut.

 

[dave_r]

Are the above messages from a fan of Stanford Wong or from Stanford Wong himself.

Remember the little quote from the old bj 21 progression forums which I can't remember word for word but it was something like this...

Progressions are entertaining, but they don't change the outcome.

Having said that, bonus hunting already makes it a positive EV situation, and therefore, perhaps progressions are of value, since they allow the wagering req's to be met faster.

Speaking of blackjack, I have becoem quite good at the K-O unbalanced count. Using that at the Borgata in AC gives me an advantage of ~.73% and I can use my comp card as well (at the $10 tables 6 deck) with no heat whatsoever. Floor supervisor came over and said that both he and surveillance was aware I was a counter, but that at a $10 game he wasn't going to sweat it, and I could play as long as I wanted with no restrictions, and penetration was excellent all night long.. So I tipped more than usual, and had a great evening.

 

[KasinoKing]

I've been sleeping while you guys have been posting! All good stuff

First, I am here to win. As Lanidar points out, if I were to have fun, I would go to a brick and mortar casino. Online casinos suck.

As I said, I'm here to win too! But I disagree that online casinos suck. I don't go to B&M casinos often for three main reasons:
1. The nearest one is 35 miles away (my computer is 35 inches away!)
2. The minimum bets are 'out of my league' (BJ 5, roulette 50p, etc.)
3. Playing with other people is too slow & too smokey!
.

KasinoKing: I assume baccarat is the card game you are referring to as to long range profit at Crypto?

No it's not. I've NEVER played baccarat, but it looks to me like it's a dull game of pure chance, with no player 'skill' involved. And anyway, baccarat does not count towards wagering requirement.
(I am a bit of a whore!)
.

I'd also add that learning basic BJ strategy is not difficult at all and would enhance your winnings while you still enjoy the play.

Very good advice! Yes, it's about time I payed the Wiz a visit. Though I still can't see myself splitting 8's v 9 10 or A, or doubling down if I've got more than $5 on the table! I must learn to be brave!
.

Just for the record...I don't lose either. I have the records to prove it. There are a few people out there who know me and KNOW I'm not lying.

I never thought for one millisecond that you were someone who loses! We play different styles, but we both win. Good luck to us!

 

[Ping]

"Bonus whores" ... keep on reading that everywhere ... Is that some kind of negative thing to be called a "bonus whore"???

Well, I don't mind being called one, only if I can really take the bonus money safely to my bank account ...

Really, who's doing that successfully here? At different online casinos? Coz I understand, it's usually a one-bonus-account per household rule everywhere too, right?

Thanks, nice thread, keep on winning, everyone!



Ping

 

[KasinoKing]

"Really, who's doing that successfully here? At different online casinos? Coz I understand, it's usually a one-bonus-account per household rule everywhere too, right?

Yep! I don't know how Lanidar or the others do it, but I only play with minimum bets, and don't set the software to so-fast-you-can-hardly-see-it mode (I'm more likely to go the other way!). So I can make my 'whoring' last as long as possible!

There are at least 8 casino's that give worthwhile monthly bonuses - probably more - so two a week can keep me quite busy!

 

[DealerBusts]

I know wagering systems don't work, but I'd like to find something to help me meet W/R's a little faster, without subjecting myself to too much variance. Any ideas?

I suggest that you should build up your bankroll first until you can easily survive the variance of betting bigger. I personally aim for a hourly earning of $70 so i adjust my bet size accordingly. Sometimes i bet $5 a hand and sometimes $50 a hand depending on the offer. Betting big is a great time saver but the psychological effect of losing big bets can be hard to cope with. It can put you on a 'poker tilt' so be careful.

 

[lanidar]

Yep! I don't know how Lanidar or the others do it, but I only play with minimum bets, and don't set the software to so-fast-you-can-hardly-see-it mode (I'm more likely to go the other way!). So I can make my 'whoring' last as long as possible!

There are at least 8 casino's that give worthwhile monthly bonuses - probably more - so two a week can keep me quite busy!

I too play minimum bets.
I concentrate on the hand I was dealt, the second and or third cards (etc.) dealt and the cards the the dealer is dealt. The outcome of that play determines the amount of money I wager on the next hand.

Can you please tell us which 8 casinos you play at? :notworthy

 

[KasinoKing]

Can you please tell us which 8 casinos you play at? :notworthy

Well, it's hardly a trade secret! They're all Crypto, except 1:-

Intercasino :notworthy
William Hill
VIP
Littlewoods (until I was banned for being a whore!)
Peach
Sands of Caribbean
Omni
BET365 (Boss media)

All allow 1xBJ for WR.

Do you know of any others?

PS. If you weren't already using all of these, 10% of the profit you make from new ones in payment for this info would be very nice, thanks!

 

[lanidar]

Well, it's hardly a trade secret! They're all Crypto, except 1:-

Intercasino :notworthy
William Hill
VIP
Littlewoods (until I was banned for being a whore!)
Peach
Sands of Carribean
Omni
BET365 (Boss media)

All allow 1xBJ for WR.

Do you know of any others?

No, I don't know of any others off hand. If I come up with something I'll let you know for sure.
Peach has a monthly...I didn't know that
I just looked for the WR's at Peach for the monthly. You happen to know what they are?
AND.....Thanks for the reply :notworthy

NEVER MIND....I JUST FOUND IT:
For all bonuses provided, Players must wager an aggregate total of 30 times the bonus in the casino before they can withdraw the bonus money. Baccarat, Roulette and Craps do not count towards your minimum wagering requirement.

THANKS AGAIN!!!

 

[chucho]

Peach casino offers a monthly so some people, not every one, so of they think you are a bonus whore or bonus hooker or even bonus slut, you will not get paid.

 

[Macgyver]

"Bonus whores" ... keep on reading that everywhere ... Is that some kind of negative thing to be called a "bonus whore"???

Really, who's doing that successfully here? At different online casinos? Coz I understand, it's usually a one-bonus-account per household rule everywhere too, right?

I first saw "bonus whore" on Connecto's casino and it tickled me to no end. Now I use it when I can just because I think it's funny.

I've been very successful as a "bonus whore" for the last year and a half. I've personally played over 130 different online casinos and have gross profits in the low 5-figure range. Also, that gross profit is a little less than twice my deposits, including returning for monthlies and reload offers.

Granted, it's more difficult to find good bonus offers now than it was a year and a half ago, but it seems like I can always find a new one here and there if I search hard enough.

Lately, I play the monthlies more as well.

I just looked for the WR's at Peach for the monthly. You happen to know what they are?

Peach's WR are 30X the bonus money, or 30 times $90 (if you put the max in) for a total WR of $2700. Do realize that Peach only gives the monthly bonus on your second and subsequent deposits. I've heard of some people not knowing that when they make their first deposit and complaining about not getting the bonus.

 

[lanidar]

Peach's WR are 30X the bonus money, or 30 times $90 (if you put the max in) for a total WR of $2700. Do realize that Peach only gives the monthly bonus on your second deposit. I've heard of some people not knowing that when they make their first deposit and complaining about not getting the bonus.

Thank you...But, I think I WILL stay away from there.
I don't trust them.

 

[Stanford]

Are the above messages from a fan of Stanford Wong or from Stanford Wong himself.

Remember the little quote from the old bj 21 progression forums which I can't remember word for word but it was something like this...

Progressions are entertaining, but they don't change the outcome.

Having said that, bonus hunting already makes it a positive EV situation, and therefore, perhaps progressions are of value, since they allow the wagering req's to be met faster.

Speaking of blackjack, I have becoem quite good at the K-O unbalanced count. Using that at the Borgata in AC gives me an advantage of ~.73% and I can use my comp card as well (at the $10 tables 6 deck) with no heat whatsoever.

Hi Dave,

Mr. Wong would never post Oscar. I think he would wonder what the point was. When I registered here I needed a name different than my ID on other boards and one I would remember. I had Wong's book on my desk and just thought it would be an easy one to remember. I really didn't think many people would make the connection. I find the blackjack communities to be much different than the online communities.

Congrats on your Mastery of KO. I have that book also. Good thing it wasn't on my desk at the time. Not sure CasinoMeister would like me calling myself "Fuchs" ;-).

I think I would change the name now if I could. Seems almost sacrilegious sense the connection is being made. Remember Harvard Chu? He was on the old progression page you mentioned.

Progressions change the distributions of dollars won and lost. There is some application for certain online situations. It really depends on the player circumstance. I dont mind taking a fair gamble so I tend not to mind losing the bonus or the deposit for that matter. I think progressions are a tad more fun.

Thats a sweet deal you have in Atlantic City.

Good luck,
Stanford

 

[DeMango]

There seem to be a few of us that post here and at bj21.com My handle stays the same but I post more here. There I am a student, here it's quite different.

 

[dave_r]

Stanford, I agree with almost everything you've said.

Nevertheless, its not a sweet deal at Borgata.

You see, they have my photo in thier surveillance database.
Sure they tolerate me on a $10 min table, because they know me, and they like me (I tip), and I bring friends there. However, if I were to play for larger stakes, it doesn't matter how much they like me, they would start with the countermeasures like half shoeing me, or maxing me out at 4x my starting bet, and other crap like that, which I've seen them do to 2 other friends of mine there. You might thing pref shuffling should be illegal, but the supervisors in the $25 and above game know how to count too, and all of a sudden ask for the shuffle just when the count is good.

To be honest its impossible to make any real money there, and even though in AC its illegal to ban counters from the casino, they have EFFECTIVELY banned me anyway except at the lower min tables.

A few months ago I spoke to one of the top bosses there, who told me point blank that my business wasn't welcome there. He also told me that unlike Vegas, they can't throw me out of the joint, but that I don't have a chance in hell of making any money there, since no matter what hat a put on or what clothes I wear, they'll always know its me. I explained to him my whole family and all my friends play there, and that even though I might make a little money here and there, that those folks are long term losers (from a financial standpoint), and the casino should be a little more tolerant of folks like me. It was at that point he offered to let me count at the $10 tables (either 6 or 8 decks), as long as I showed my comp card, and there would be no countermeasures.

So there's some kind of special memo on my acct which says not to sweat my action at the $10 game. Nevertheless, they have alerted surveillance every time I've been there. Also, if I don't recognize the "floor", I don't play, since chances are they'll start with the countermeasures anyway.

I used to play the high-low count there, but I was a little overwhelmed in figuring out the true count. The KO system is far superior, since I can play for hours without going nuts. Even with KO I am usually dizzy by the end of a 4 hour session.