the search for positive expectation online casino games without bonuses

[dwype]

my aim is to find specific online casinos with specific games that offer a positive expected value in the long run. (preferably higher than 0.5% EV)

i don't know the best way to organize this. i want to post casinos i look at that don't offer +EV games as well so other in case other people want to help, they don't have to do the same work. maybe i'll just update this main post, maybe i can use an online document-sharing website where everyone can edit it (or certain people with permissions) such as google docs.

for video poker expected value i use the calculator at wizardofodd's website

games that i know of that might have +EV depending on the casino
deuces wild video poker - full pay
joker poker - full pay
progressive jackpots
blackjack (without shuffling after every hand, because only then does card counting help)

online casinos with slightly +EV games:
inetbet - listed as 10, 52, and 100 hand joker poker (actually one-way sequential joker poker, kings or better) +EV 1.000459 - payouts:20000,4000,750,400,250,100,35,25,15,10,5,5

betvoyager - joker poker +EV 1.000169
betvoyager - deuces wild +EV 1.000015

online casinos with -EV video poker
inetbet - deuces wild - negative EV

bodog - deuces wild -EV 0.989131 - 4000,1000,125,75,45,20,20,15,10,5

williamhill - deuces wild -EV 0.989131 - 4000,1000,125,75,45,20,20,15,10,5
williamhill - joker poker kings or better -EV 0.985987 - 5000,1000,500,250,85,35,25,15,10,5,5

titan - found no +EV video poker

32red - joker poker kings or better -EV 0.985987 - 5000,1000,500,250,85,35,25,15,10,5,5
32red - deuces wild -EV 0.967651 - 4000,1000,125,80,65,20,15,10,10,5

 

[zanzibar]

Check out the casinos in the 5Dimes group. From memory there is 5Dimes, Sportbet + a few others. They all have what they call a "Bonus Casino" which has nothing to do with casino bonuses. Instead there are better payouts on many games. If you are thinking of playing there, check their withdrawal terms as they may have fees which erode any edge you may find (its been a long time since I checked them).

Actually I just checked their full pay "Deuces Wild Full Pay Bonus" paytable and it results in a 38% player edge:

800 / 200 / 24 / 130 / 9 / 5 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 1

So there must be a misprint in the paytable. It says 130 coins for a 5 of a kind, but I assume that should be 13 instead. That would make the RTP 99.95%.

Their "Jacks or Better Full Pay Bonus 1" is exactly 100% RTP.

Anyway there are stacks of other games there that are at or near 100% RTP that are worth checking out.

 

[vinylweatherman]

I would be surprised to find many around, given that advantage players tend to hammer such games when they are discovered. Beating such a game would tend to get your account locked, and in some cases winnings confisacted for "cheating" by using a "system to beat the RNG" or similar such bullshit.

+EV tends to appear by accident due to cock-ups on promotions. Mostly these involve bonuses, but sometimes not. You can also add a few percentage points by using "certain deposit methods at the right times".

Some games that APPEAR to be +EV may in fact be running under "rigged" software, making them actually -EV. Having found a +EV game, make sure the software is trusted to be fair and random.

Comp points can also add 0.1% to the player's return, and can be enough to make a game just +EV for the determined and patient player (or a bot). Casinos offering such opportunities are going to ban bots, and will be investigating all players who manage "perfect strategy" in order to catch them out with evidence of bot use.

 

[binary128]

(The following is data, but some may also consider it promotional. However, it is actually difficult for me to provide data and not be promotional.)

VinylWeatherman pointed out a few of what I call "Out Clauses" about which I have read in this forum - "cheating" and "system to beat the RNG" - IMO properly referring to them as bullshit. Other Out Clauses about which I have read include "pattern betting systems" (Martingale, Paroli, et. al), "robot exclusions", and like that.

The context in which I have read about these Out Clauses is that they are included in a Casino's T&Cs regarding unacceptable game play. I call them Out Clauses because, when I have read about them, they are usually referred to by a Casinomeister member who is complaining that one of these things was used by some Casino as a reason to not pay them their winnings.

As a Player myself, I don't want to deal with T&Cs. I don't expect that an establishment that I patronize is going to bite me in the ass with some ill-defined, "no proof required" Out Clause. (These things would simply be inconceivable to me if used at my local grocery store or department store.) I just want it "straight up". (I mentioned in another thread - I spend my days working with complex pieces of technology, both software and hardware. I don't want to have to learn how to use a phone. I'm too damn busy.)

So by "straight up", I mean exactly that. The only knowledge that I want to apply in playing Pontoon is that knowledge required to play Pontoon. I don't want to know from T&Cs, Out Clauses, "deposit strategies", "withdrawal strategies", or any of that stuff.

I respect VinylWeatherman's observation that +EV games that are delivered "straight up", with no Out Clauses, are difficult, and perhaps impossible, to find. (I mean, bottom line, a Casino has to make at least enough profit to keep the doors open. If I did see a +EV game, my first thought would be "Where's the catch?")

So for me, I'd put my "best bet" limit at a Theoretical Maximum RTP of 99.5%. That gives me a potential loss of a nickel for every $10 wagered. It also puts me close enough to the peak of the distribution curve that I get a lot of winning days for my wager dollar.

Galewind, through Pinnacle Sports, provides a 0.3% rebate on your total bet amount. (The only exclusions are the "Double Down" bets in the various Video Pokers, and the Odds bets in Craps, all of which are already 100% RTP.) You don't have to track it, record it, monitor it, or verify it. You just get it, whether you want it or not.

We also don't have any Out Clauses - no "RNG system exclusions", "pattern bettor exclusions", "robot exclusions"; nothing like that. So, it's "straight up" - what you see is what you get.

Below is Galewind's/Pinnacle's "best bet" list. (This includes the 0.3% rebate, and is also based on "Element of Risk" return where applicable.)

---

Pontoon
* 99.98%

Blackjack
* 99.89%

Jacks or Better Video Poker
* 99.84%

Oasis Poker
* 99.75%

Craps Don't Pass
* 99.73%

Baccarat (Bet on Banker)
* 99.70%

Bonus Poker Video Poker
* 99.66%

Craps Passline
* 99.63%

Hold'em Poker
* 99.48%

---

Chris

 

[Jufo]

I have discovered a few slightly +EV games but these involve more complex strategies and/or large bet sizes. For example there used to be a five handed single deck blackjack with good rules and House edge of 0.11%.

What you could do in that game to obtain player edge, was to bet minimum £1 on the first four hands and £100 - £500 maximum bet on the fifth hand (obviously you have to bet before seeing the cards). By the time you reached the fifth hand you could see 15-20 cards from a single deck drawn to the first four hands and could adjust your strategy accordingly for the fifth hand (so it was a bit like card counting even though the deck was shuffled after every deal). This way a small player edge was obtainable for the fifth hand with maximum bet on it. However this was difficult and extremely volatile game play that also required software to calculate single-deck card-dependent exceptions for every deal, so it's unlikely many were able to pull a profit from the game. Nevertheless I was sad when I saw the game got pulled. Not so much because of missed profits but I had a blast playing that game with a small player edge.

Every now and then there are also glitches where the game pays more than it should or it allows some player move that it shouldn't (Betfair 8K confiscation thread relates to this), so a possible suggestion for the OP is to keep his eyes open for opportunities like that.

 

[OriginalBUFU]

All of the following four casinos 7winners.com , bondwin.com, mywin.com and backgammonmasters.com (all part of the same group i think) are offering Full Pay Deuces Wild and it can be played up to 50 hands and min/max bet is 0.05c/2500$. All these casinos also states to have one slot game named AstroFortune (or AstroPay) which has a payback return of 102.3% (- i wonder if this can ever be true or is just a method to attract players ?) Also all of those four casinos are offering 100% deposit bonuses which are fully cashable after a 50x bonus rollover is meet ! (only valid for first deposit, and all games allowed (including backgammon and blackjack) with the exception of roulette ! - I have already registered an account with each of them, but i did not deposit because i am afraid is too good to be true ! - If there is anyone who can share experience regarding this group of casinos i would be appreciating. Cheers !

 

[petro]

Jacks or Better Video Poker
* 99.84%

JoB is 99.54% unless it is a really rare version of JoB like one with a normal paytable (9/6) but with a jackpot.

inetbet - listed as 10, 52, and 100 hand joker poker (actually one-way sequential joker poker, kings or better) +EV 1.000459 - payouts:20000,4000,750,400,250,100,35,25,15,10,5,5

iNitBet changed the paytable of their Joker Poker some years ago it now pays ~99%.