Random my ****

[snorky510238]

Okay, for those of you that haven’t come across me before on this forum. I am the one that keeps banging the drum regarding Providers/slots being rigged, bent, paying out less than advertised rtp, etc. You name it, I’ve said it. Not just lately but from day 1.

Of course, I am always met with, tinfoiler, deluded, imagining things, seeing patterns that aren’t there, etc, etc.

I am always confronted with where’s the proof and so on. I honestly wish that I had recorded everything I’ve ever done in relation to online gambling but to backtrack 7 year with as much play as I have done is impossible. (At least in my lifetime).

So, I decided in mid December to play a game at a Casino where my stats would be there for me to check, in black and white. (Well, colour actually but you get my drift).

I decided to pick a game at random, that I had never played, ever before. Christmas Carol Megaways came up first so went for that.

My heart sank when I saw it was by Pragmatic because I have never won anything decent on their games but had seeen others had so decided perhaps I hadn’t give them a decent shot. BIG MISTAKE!

I started playing 40p spins and quickly noticed that if I increased to 50p I would increase the chance of landing a bonus. Must do that then, mustn’t we.

The game is 94 odd% and here is the absolute filth that this slot has served up at @Mr Vegas.

I have done 9,235 spins and landed 44 bonuses. From memory, three were 5 scatter triggers and 1 was a six scatter trigger that went for an amazing x28…..Yeah x28!

On all but about 5 occasions, I took the 10 spins option with a starting multiplier of x5.

The results are as follows;

X16
X41
X42
X2
X41
X2
X10
X67
X6
X18
X38
X15
X44
X35
X62
X21
X13
X20
X27
X59
X26
X24
X14
X9
X43
X10
X58
X26
X18
X31
X39
X28
X28
X29
X57
X47
X33
X72
X11
X17
X62
X38
X62
X12

Biggest bonus x72
Biggest base hit x82

Yep, over £4,500 wagered through (and the base game is shite) and not a single win over x100 and an rtp around 20% less than expected.

Now, I know you can have bad runs, etc, etc but these stats are disgusting and I don’t think it would matter which game I had chosen because providers are all getting away with murder, right now. Even @ChopleyIOM will struggle to brush this under the carpet, although I am sure he’ll try his best.

 

[goatwack]

Yes but if you add up all them bonus rounds that's well over a 1000x right there!!!

 

[sufferinsilence]

Pragmatic... Where to begin? I played their Social Tournaments from the beginning for close to 2 years, I think, and have never hit a max win. Not even close! In all that time I played thousands of tournaments being 250 spins each, or 10 if it was a bonus buy one, and I might've hit 1000x about 5 times.

Ever since I rarely play them for real money, the odd spin when they release a new game just to check it out. Streamers and Youtubers seem to like them and get max wins on them very regularly. One can only wonder how. Something seems fishy with them and it's not another clone of Big Bass Bonanza...

I have to admit when their games first started hitting the casinos I really liked them, they had nice games and the volatility wasn't too high. You could actually have a decent amount of gameplay on their slots without having to donate a kidney. Nowadays they just follow the ultra-high volatility train that suits a certain public.

 

[snorky510238]

Yes, a whopping average of x31 if my maths is correct. At the very least, it shows how Providers can front load games not to pay a dime and then when you complain, they say you haven’t done enough spins.

How brave would you have to be to do another 10,000 spins having seen what’s been delivered so far? Not brave, ****ing nuts would be more like it!

 

[jasonuk]

It's a tricky topic to cover because it can be easily deflected by talking about sample size - we've seen plenty of outrageous claims made in recent years, based on laughably small sample sizes.

In this case, it's mostly confirming the trend we have seen in recent years - not only has the variance skyrocketed, but providers that bow to the monopoly money gods are increasing desperate to demonstrate that their slot will "pay out"...

In a conversation from a couple of weeks ago, someone talks about a slot at the other extreme - Bouncy Balls - where it seems particularly tame. Somewhat understandable given it's a decade old and targeted at the bingo demographic - but it's also a good reminder of how times have changed.

As part of that conversation, we discussed how scripted game rounds can be precisely controlled in a way that a lot of players - to this day - wouldn't expect (including "just missed" behaviour). Similarly, comparing Bonus Buy Parody with it's 9217x jackpot with Avalon 2, and the former's jackpot frequency being sixteen thousand times higher.

So we have some games now chucking 10%+ RTP into those jackpot prizes, even more into the big hits, and then maintaining the bottom end with a similar hit frequency (micro-wins etc) - and thus the middle becomes more and more squeezed. The result being what you see - 20% adrift after 9k spins... although not seeing a single 100x win in that time is shocking, even Starburst will manage that!

 

[bamberfishcake]

Following your post, I found several streamer videos of Christmas Carol Megaways and compiled the stats.

I think you just had a run of bad luck because the results of 44 streamer bonuses on the same game tell a different story.

The results of 44 random Pragmatic Play streamer bonuses are as follows;

X160
X410
X422
X2095
X411
X2099
X1021
X670
X6098
X180
X389
X150
X444
X352
X621
X2190
X1300
X2005
X270
X5923
X261
X241
X143
X9091
X4308
X1001
X582
X263
X184
X315
X3967
X2834
X2821
X291
X5723
X4724
X332
X7289
X1156
X1737
X623
X3845
X6223
X1234

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Now, I know you can have bad runs, etc, etc but these stats are disgusting and I don’t think it would matter which game I had chosen because providers are all getting away with murder, right now. Even @ChopleyIOM will struggle to brush this under the carpet, although I am sure he’ll try his best.

As an ex-player I'm more just an interested observer now.

That said - you've done under 10K spins and are ~20% adrift from TRTP, bad numbers, but certainly possible on a HV game, although I can't claim to be familiar with this particular slot and its maths. Back when I was still playing I would occasionally load up the new Prags in demo mode at Rizk and I found them to be almost universally awful and not something I would consider playing with real money.

CHOPLEY'S TOP TIP would be that if you think all the providers are 'getting away with murder', you should make the choice to stop giving them your money. The difference between murder and playing online slots is that murder is something that is perpetrated without the murdered party's consent, whereas playing online slots is a voluntary activity.

 

[snorky510238]

If doing a certain number of spins is what it takes to prove you are being shafted, then what is that number? 100,000, 1,000,000?

Who in their right mind is going to do that many spins on a game that’s robbing you blind? Who can afford to do it more the point. That’s where these thieving crooks can’t lose. What ever angle of attack you come with, there’s a get out for them.

To any guest viewers, take my advice and if you’re thinking of having a gamble online. Don’t bother, it’s filthy, rigged disgusting bullshit and unregulated by any organisation that is fit for purpose.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Had a little dig into the CM archives, take a look at this post here.

NEW SLOT Artic Treasure Adventure.... STAY COOL - Page 6 - Casinomeister Forum

These are stats from 3Dice's Arctic Adventure, which ripped me a new arsehole right out of the gate, before gradually, over time, and I'm talking lots of spins, many tens of thousands, gravitated towards T-RTP.

It's all documented in that thread, with stats.

From the snip below, you can see that after 13,500 spins, I was just short of 20% below T-RTP.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

If doing a certain number of spins is what it takes to prove you are being shafted, then what is that number? 100,000, 1,000,000?

Finger in the air, based on my own experience over many years of playing online slots, I'd say something in the region of 100K would level out even a HV game into something approaching T-RTP. Although of course this still wouldn't 'prove' anything.

Obviously it's all down to the maths model and variance of the particular game, you could (easily!) design a slot where even 100K spins wouldn't be enough to smooth out the bumps, but you're starting to get into really offensive design there that I don't think exists, although given the extreme maths models we've seen over more recent years, I could be wrong on that.....

The only real way around that is to play games with completely 'known' maths, such as video pokers or roulette, where you can record your stats, compare them with expected mathematical results, and work out standard deviations and whatnot.

 

[dunover]

Finger in the air, based on my own experience over many years of playing online slots, I'd say something in the region of 100K would level out even a HV game into something approaching T-RTP. Although of course this still wouldn't 'prove' anything.

Obviously it's all down to the maths model and variance of the particular game, you could (easily!) design a slot where even 100K spins wouldn't be enough to smooth out the bumps, but you're starting to get into really offensive design there that I don't think exists, although given the extreme maths models we've seen over more recent years, I could be wrong on that.....

The only real way around that is to play games with completely 'known' maths, such as video pokers or roulette, where you can record your stats, compare them with expected mathematical results, and work out standard deviations and whatnot.

It all depends on the deviation from TRTP that the maths is based on and those parameters. The more volatile the game is, the number of spins over which it has to meet this criteria is measured. So unless we know this figure, the testing and expectation are moot. For example on Starburst you could find (my projection) that a player could not be more than 5% off of TRTP for 10,000 spins whereas on say a volatile MW game this could be 100,000, or half a million, maybe more.

Unless we are party to the testing and certification reports, we just don't know.

Your Arctic Spins and attempts to reach the Ice Bitch at the top of the pyramid is a great example - a HV game (kind of like Bonanza) where if over an extended period you fail to hit a premium symbol 5OAK or 6OAK on a high multiplier then this would be extremely prejudicial to your chances of being close to RTP over your lifetime play. That's the catch with HV 'excitement' - it can be your best friend (as with you Final Countdown experience) or worst enemy (many slots, millions of posts passim.)

 

[bamberfishcake]

Funny though. Plenty of threads that command the standard 'run of bad luck' reply, but where for art thou threads that smashed it?

Someone, somewhere, is having a whale of a time winning from 500x to 5,000x on every bonus trigger.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Funny though. Plenty of threads that command the standard 'run of bad luck' reply, but where for art thou threads that smashed it?

Someone, somewhere, is having a whale of a time winning from 500x to 5,000x on every bonus trigger.

I hit 5698x stake on The Final Countdown after 24 spins in my first ever session playing the game with real money. It happens. Sometimes.

Think about how many sub-50x bonus round that 'pays' for, and think about the spawn involved in hitting a feature within 24 spins, and it being a 5698x monster, as dunover notes above, this is the fire you're playing with when it comes to HV games.

 

[goatwack]

Yes.....to think, several lucky bastards are likely well over 120% RTP after e.g 100,000 spins.

I'd imagine there are some faring even better than that! Randomness isn't all one-way you know, even if those players have kept their escapades on the down-low!

 

[bamberfishcake]

I hit 5698x stake on The Final Countdown after 24 spins in my first ever session playing the game with real money. It happens. Sometimes.

Think about how many sub-50x bonus round that 'pays' for, and think about the spawn involved in hitting a feature within 24 spins, and it being a 5698x monster, as dunover notes above, this is the fire you're playing with when it comes to HV games.

Not the example I was looking for

Mega wins out of the blue are ten to a penny on forums.

 

[Jono777]

Those are absolutely disgusting stats @snorky510238

Far worse than I imagined when you first gave us the 'heads up' that this thread was coming....

The worrying part is that I would confidently bet that you are not alone far, far from it, how many none forum based and "newbie" style players are out there experiencing more or less the same across multiple games, I guarantee the answers is "a lot" - Then on top of this the seasoned players, including us who experience this bullshit time and time again.

As you say, 100% there is no way on this planet these games are regulated as we're told, providers dipped their toe in the water about 5-6 years back to see if they could get away with GREED and they sure did get away with it and never looked back.

Another thing (although insignificant really in comparison) I've noticed last year or two is that the same people (small handful) seem to be the only winners. If you look for example in winners screenshots section it is the same 10-15 posters continually. These either play 24/7, have streamers RTP settings or hide their losing sessions well lol

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Not the example I was looking for

Mega wins out of the blue are ten to a penny on forums.

But that's just not how the maths of random games are going to play out, for starters you've got a generous house edge built into the equation (and make no mistake, even 5% is a BIG house edge for a random game), which means the player is going to lose as a mathematical certainty given enough time, and then you've got volatility/variance added to the mix, because the only way slots can be made attractive is by having mathematical outliers on the paytable that deliver the exciting wins, so they, by definition, have to be rare. (And have to be accounted for in the RTP.)

It's like saying 'We hear about people losing on roulette all the time, but where are the threads with people betting on a single number and winning five times on the trot?'

Yeah it's probably happened somewhere, at some point, but at odds of 1 in 1.3 billion.

What you're talking about isn't as extreme, but the principle remains the same, stuff that is statistically rare is, y'know, going to happen far less often than stuff that is statistically likely.

 

[bamberfishcake]

But that's just not how the maths of random games are going to play out, for starters you've got a generous house edge built into the equation (and make no mistake, even 5% is a BIG house edge for a random game), which means the player is going to lose as a mathematical certainty given enough time, and then you've got volatility/variance added to the mix, because the only way slots can be made attractive is by having mathematical outliers on the paytable that deliver the exciting wins, so they, by definition, have to be rare. (And have to be accounted for in the RTP.)

It's like saying 'We hear about people losing on roulette all the time, but where are the threads with people betting on a single number and winning five times on the trot?'

Yeah it's probably happened somewhere, at some point, but at odds of 1 in 1.3 billion.

What you're talking about isn't as extreme, but the principle remains the same, stuff that is statistically rare is, y'know, going to happen far less often than stuff that is statistically likely.

I like to think I am quite educated on the randomness of online slots. And while I still love spinning, given my personal experience, plus what I have seen and heard, it would be naive of me to think everything is above board.

The current system of self-testing and self-validation of ongoing performance is vulnerable to a fiddle here and there.

Besides, when game developers do all they can to hide the stats, like Play'n GO hiding RTP ratings, Pragmatic Play has dodgy past relationships with streamers, and Big Time Gaming has ringers in screenshot competitions, my trust and faith kind of wanes.

Agree that many of the moans are unjustified and somewhat delusional (for want of a better description), especially when you consider the billions of spins required to meet the TRTP in testing, just would have thought there would be someone, somewhere, who is having a field day - especially considering the 'random' nature we all bang on about.

I would like to see that thread unless its streamer-based

 

[pekka55]

Slots have always been made to in the end suck you dry.

However 10 years ago they at least let you have some bang for the buck and you could have hours of entertainment for a 20-50€ deposit.

Now they just suck you dry faster than ever. There's really no point anymore in even playing and I have drastically lowered the amount I spend on online casinos.

 

[bamberfishcake]

Another thing (although insignificant really in comparison) I've noticed last year or two is that the same people (small handful) seem to be the only winners.

Have noticed this too. And it's thought-provoking to say the least.

Like the guy that hit the Divine Fortune jackpot two years running, during the same month if memory serves me correctly. Or, let's take @Kroffe for example (I know he won't mind), has plenty of wildlines on WTB, yet I am still wildlineless after thousands of spins.

There are some games I avoid like the plague now (WTB should be one of them) purely because my runs of bad luck never seem to end on them.

 

[Lemon]

The problem you've got here @snorky510238 is that -

1. Megaways slots are fucking dreadful, especially non-BTG ones
2. All of Pragmatic's slots are absolutely awful

So what you've done by playing Christmas Carol Megaways by Pragmatic is combine those two negative elements, mixing them into one giant casserole of atrociousness. There's probably 15-20% of the RTP going towards wins of 200x or greater on that game, and all the clones they've done of it.

When you play a game like that, Pragmatic want to suck you in for the long-haul and make you commit hours of play chasing those magical unicorn bonuses that only happen to those fucking gurning-thumbnail wankers on Youtube.

You've simply been unlucky, and you're not alone - there will be lots of people who get turned over by shit-or-bust slot profiles like that, with very little in the middle. The best thing you can do is walk away from games like that and play lower-variance stuff that at least give entertainment. 10,000 spins is absolutely nothing on slots like CCM - but why bother carrying on in the hope that your luck changes when you'll probably experience the same sort of thing again?

 

[DreddBeat]

Another thing (although insignificant really in comparison) I've noticed last year or two is that the same people (small handful) seem to be the only winners. If you look for example in winners screenshots section it is the same 10-15 posters continually. These either play 24/7, have streamers RTP settings or hide their losing sessions well lol

Yeah. They seem to win big for fun. All on games the rest of us can't win squat. DoA2 has given me nothing but dead spins and 2 insulting bonus rounds.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Yeah. They seem to win big for fun. All on games the rest of us can't win squat. DoA2 has given me nothing but dead spins and 2 insulting bonus rounds.

If you're going to dig in with DOA2, be prepared for a very, very, long and expensive haul to hit a big bonus round, especially if you're picking the most volatile one.

 

[Kroffe]

Have noticed this too. And it's thought-provoking to say the least.

Like the guy that hit the Divine Fortune jackpot two years running, during the same month if memory serves me correctly. Or, let's take @Kroffe for example (I know he won't mind), has plenty of wildlines on WTB, yet I am still wildlineless after thousands of spins.

There are some games I avoid like the plague now (WTB should be one of them) purely because my runs of bad luck never seem to end on them.

You think i wont mind you making an example out of me?

But actually the answer is easy, WTB is mostly skill-based.
It goes without saying that getting 5 chicks to line up for you takes a lot of dedication and nifty maneuvering, just relying on blind luck wont get you anywhere.

 

[jasonuk]

I like to think I am quite educated on the randomness of online slots. And while I still love spinning, given my personal experience, plus what I have seen and heard, it would be naive of me to think everything is above board.

The current system of self-testing and self-validation of ongoing performance is vulnerable to a fiddle here and there.

Besides, when game developers do all they can to hide the stats, like Play'n GO hiding RTP ratings, Pragmatic Play has dodgy past relationships with streamers, and Big Time Gaming has ringers in screenshot competitions, my trust and faith kind of wanes.

I suspect a lot of people would be surprised how "random" their games are at this point.

Many of us will have grown up in the world of AWPs, so understand compensated slots (or "bent" if you prefer). Over the years, those rules built up where even though the game was compensated it couldn't do certain things - for example, you couldn't "set up" an enticing combination on the last credit.

Earlier generations of slots and online games tended to be true random - some would even explicitly state in the game rules that every reel had an equal chance for every stop.

The problem now is things have moved so far away from that - that many of the rules don't apply anymore, because many of them revolve around "real mechanics" (reels, wheels, dice etc) - and "drops" isn't such a mechanic. Instead of tens or hundreds of RNG calls, it can be as few as one...

Unlike reel-based slots (see the discussions on Avalon 2 from years back), scratchcard-based slots cannot be verified by an end user. The bag of balls is only seen by the provider and the test house - which means if they deploy a new RTP model (as many have), you don't know what has changed... in some cases, they could remove one ball to achieve this - and it would be essentially impossible to verify.

Which is why jurisdictions that don't show RTP should be concerned - you can tell the reels have changed, you can't tell that the bag of balls had...