LIES, MORE LIES AND STATISTICS....

21 September 2007

Media fixation with youth in poker can result in distortions


The apparent fixation of mainstream media with portraying Internet gambling as a prominent danger to youth often results in uninformed or occasionally downright inaccurate interpretation of the many surveys carried out on the pastime, and it was therefore satisfying to read a factual dismantling of such reports this week in an excellent article by Pittsburgh poker blogger Gene Bromberg at http://www.pokerplayernewspaper.com/viewarticle.php?id=2234

Bromberg has rightly been described as one of the defining class of Internet journalist, producing well researched, well written, source linked, in-depth analyses of what’s happening in the online poker world, and he begins his article with the the famous Benjamin Disraeli quote: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics," commenting that this indictment remains relevant today.

The blogger goes on to quote two examples of mainstream media reports that appeared recently under somewhat emotive headlines such as "Teens Turn to Poker For Profit" and "Betting Their Lives". Both used findings from last year's study by the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania to support the claim that online poker is becoming more prevalent among young Americans.

The Star-Ledger claimed: "According to the National Annenberg (Pa.) Risk Survey of Youth, 11.6 percent of males 14-22 years of age reported playing cards weekly in 2006. That compares to 2 percent of women in that age group."

And from the Mercury-Times: "A national survey last fall indicated that 8.9 percent of men ages 18 to 22 gamble online at least once a month. About 1 million young people - some as young as 14 - gamble on the Internet monthly, according to the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania."

Bromberg goes on to produce the real statistics from the Annenburg report which actually show a decrease in the number of young people playing online poker....and those statistics were before the dampening effect of the UIGEA last October.

"I actually READ the report that the Annenberg Center issued," writes Bromberg: "On the very first page, right under the main title of "Card Playing Trend In Young People Starts to Diverge", comes the sub-title 'First Signs of Decline in Youth Under 18'. See, it turns out that card playing among young people is actually decreasing:

"According to the latest results...the overall percentage of male youth ages 14 to 22 who reported playing cards for money on a weekly basis DROPPED (emphasis mine) to 11.6% in 2006 from 12.5% in 2005."

"Do you get the impression from the Star-Ledger story that FEWER young men between 14 and 22 are playing cards? Neither do I. The Mercury-Times piece says that, "About 1 million young people - some as young as 14 - gamble on the Internet monthly", without bothering to mention that over 70% of those "young people" are between the ages of 18-22. You know--adults. The kind who can vote, drive, and be shipped off to Iraq.

"Anyone who actually READS the Annenberg Center report will come away with a very different view of gambling trends that you get in these two articles. Here are a few additional quotes from the report:

"Among male youth ages 14 to 17, those who reported some type of gambling on a weekly basis and who reported at least one symptom of problem gambling dropped from 13.9% in 2005 to 6.7% in 2006."

"Monthly rates of gambling stable among older male youth but declining in younger youth".

"For males under the age of 18, weekly use of Internet gambling declined from 2.6% in 2005 to 0% in 2006"

"ZERO percent! How does that square with the breathless announcement that "About 1 million young people - some as young as 14 - gamble on the Internet monthly"? Simple--it doesn't."

The article is well worth reading as an appreciation of how reality can be distorted when it comes to reporting on statistics.

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