BATTLE OF THE ANALYSTS

7 March 2008

Who's statistics are right in Massachusetts land casino debate?


The ongoing fierce debate for and against the building of three major land casinos in Massachusetts entered a new phase this week as rival analyst studies started to play a role.

Governor Deval Patrick's projection that the introduction of the casinos would create 30 000 construction jobs in the state is the latest number to come under the microscope following a newspaper study through an independent economics specialist, with House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi, an opponent of the casinos, claiming that the governor's figures are clearly losing credibility.

The Speaker was basing his criticism on a study commissioned by the Boston Globe newspaper comparing Patrick's assumptions with other New England casinos and an industry standard. The newspaper reported that Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics for Moody's Economy.com said building three casinos at a cost of $1 billion each in Massachusetts would create a total of 4 000 to 5 000 new construction jobs - not 30 000. Even a group representing building trade unions - Patrick's major ally in the casino debate - said Patrick's projection was 10 000 jobs too high.

The Governor's economic development secretary said in response that the administration had "confidence in our casino job projections and have hired an independent third-party firm with extensive expertise in the gaming industry to provide an analysis of the governor's plan." This was a reference to the recent engagement by the Governor of Spectrum Gaming of New Jersey - the only group to respond to a tender for a study.

The firm is being paid $189 000 by the state to analyse the governor's plan to license three casinos in Massachusetts and is expected to complete its study within two to three months (see previous InfoPowa report).

Meanwhile, pressure group Casino Free Mass, a coalition of organisations opposed to casinos, called on Patrick to rescind the contract, alleging that the organisation is biased.

In the statement Monday, DiMasi criticised the Patrick administration.

"It seems like we have a proposal where no tough questions were even asked - let alone answered," DiMasi said. "The Governor clearly has the burden of convincing the Legislature that this casino plan should be adopted. So far, the case has not been made, the evidence isn't there and the Governor’s arguments for casinos are clearly losing credibility."

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