POKER SKILL DEBATE CONTINUES

21 December 2007

80 percent skill and 20 percent chance?


The British Broadcasting Corporation has joined the poker skill vs. luck debate with a piece which examines the topic from the perspectives of a professional poker player, a statistician and a regulatory authority spokesperson.

Risk management analyst and expert poker player Graham Newman, who recently won $230 000 in an online poker tournament, supported the much publicised view of Gutshot private poker club owner Derek Kelly that the game is primarily one of skill. Kelly lost the case when he sought support for the skill view from the courts earlier this year, claiming that he did not need a licence.

30-year-old Newman said that although an element of chance was involved, poker was really about skill, but: "In any one hand of cards there is a large amount of luck involved. It is 20 percent chance and 80 percent skill which is done by creating the odds in your favour, so it is 100 percent skill in setting the right odds."

But he added that, "You could get your cards in the best possible position and still lose that hand. That reflects the fact that you have skill to get to that point, using skill to get yourself into a position where the odds are in your favour. The bottom line is that skill is involved and it's all about creating lots of small edges on your opponents."

Newman went on to detail the elements of skill involved, including reading one's opponent. This became more difficult when playing online instead of face to face, because online poker was faster and more remote, but it could be done. "Playing online you can't see if they are looking nervous but you can identify betting patterns," he explained. "People are creatures of habit. I won't do very much for the first 20-30 minutes and watch how players approach the game."

"Some make big bets when they haven't got a hand and there are opposite trends where big amounts are made when they have a good hand," Newman continued. "It's also about trying to disguise your own hand as well as looking for betting patterns and body language, which are called tells.

"Face-to-face games are a lot slower but you get a lot more information so I take about the same time to observe the players as when playing online.

"There is also sophisticated software which provides statistical analysis of a game and knowing how to interpret this information takes a great deal of skill."

The statistician's perspective was provided by Dr Barry Blight, who worked as a lecturer at the London School of Economics and has carried out research into the extent of skill involved in games.

He told the BBC author: "There is a great deal of skill in poker. It's a combination of two types of skill, assessing the chances of the cards and the bluffing skill...it's very complex. Working out the probability of cards is a small part of the game.

"It's very difficult to define skill in games. If players can make a decision that can affect the outcome of the game, then it involves skill. There are a lot of decisions in poker; involving the cards and the mood of the opponents."

A spokesman from the Department of Media, Culture and Sport, the British government division responsible for the Gambling Commission, which regulates gambling, said that its main concern was to prevent crime, protect children and vulnerable people and ensure games are fair.

"With the area of poker there is recognition that people are playing different games now to when [previous gambling regulations] was drawn up in 1968," he said. "At the some time we need to ensure that the three principles are upheld and the government believes properly regulated games is the way to do this.

"When gambling involves high stakes the government believes it should take place in a properly regulated environment that includes proper licences."

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