Casinomeister's Newsletter
5 September 2003
Issue #163
weekly


Dear ${token1},

Well, I'm getting ready to take off for the states. We leave Monday morning and have a long flight to deal with. And with two little kids, time can actually begin to run much slower than normal. It's not something I'm particularly looking forward to.

I usually come back to the states once a year for the G2E show in Vegas and hang out for a couple of days in San Diego and Monterey and then head straight back. This year it's a little different. I'm bringing the whole family (not to Vegas mind you), so my kids will have a little more exposure to English besides me and Barney videos. And I'm looking forward to some groovy In-n-Out Burgers, (the only junk food I like to eat), Sushi and Thai restaurants, Mexican food, and the California coast.

Highway one is my homeland; it brings back lots of childhood memories of hippie vans and camping out.

Trippingly yours,

Bryan

In this issue:
1. What's New at Casinomeister
2. Casinos You Ought to Join
3. This week's humor
4. Forum Highlights
Can't read this newsletter? Click here (or copy and paste this into your browser): http://www.casinomeister.com/newsletter.html#skip for the online version.
WORD FROM THE MEISTER
TRUE GAMBLER'S REPORT
The long awaited OCA Black Jack report from True Gambler is finally here. This is a report that concerns the play action of Blackjack via the software providers Microgaming, Oddson, Random Logic and RTG. The report is a painstaking collection of data which represents over 3 million recorded hands from 200 players of online casinos. The Blackjack play was analyzed by the Online Casino Analyzer (OCA), a program that compares the actual play to the expected outcome of what the "dealer" deals out. Most of us had been anticipating the release of this report for some time now, actually since May. Unfortunately, this report is having damaging consequences.

But damaging to whom? Unfortunately, it's damaging everyone involved. The crux of the matter is that TrueGambler reported that the likelihood of a Microgaming dealer receiving the number of 17-21/BJ hands is very low, actually rounding this out to zero. Also the number of "pushed" hands was higher than expected, and the dealer lost less hands than would be expected. In other words, according to these results and in layman's terms Microgaming is using cheating software.

When the news hit the message boards and gambling related forums, there was an outcry from players. I'm not going to attempt to rehash what has been said in the forums concerning this because it is getting picked to death. Players are screaming "rip-off!" "We've been screwed!", "I knew it all along." etc. And a lot of the portal webmasters are arguing on how the data was analyzed and collected. Everyone seems to be a bit confused. Why? Because of the way the information has been presented. When it comes to presenting information that has the potentiality to bring a multi-million dollar industry to it's knees, you don't show up in an 84 VW Golf wearing jeans and a T-shirt handcarrying a manila folder with data and no explanation.

Truegambler chose to offer their information as more or less raw data; they intentionally did this so that players could come to their own conclusions. This is understandable since unhappy software providers could bring in a truckload of lawyers from hell. And who wants to get sued? But the data in this form is unfathomable to most players. Unless you are a math-head, your eyes will glaze over if anyone attempts to explain these findings.

But once they are explained, there are more questions at hand. Where is the methodology? What do we know about how this information was collected? This is not explained. Why is the software still in its Beta version? This gives the impression that the developers aren't yet convinced that the program is running at a full fledged 100%. Why does the Truegambler website still have Microgaming banners flapping in the breeze? If Truegambler believes that the results of this report indicate that Microgaming's software is cheating players, why haven't they taken five minutes to replace these banners?

What about casinos like Ladbrokes? As most of you are aware, this is a brick and mortar casino owned by the Hilton group that has an extremely high profile, especially in the UK. I would only assume that this casino watches their play outcome very carefully. To do otherwise would be unimaginable.

These aren't only my questions, these are the questions that are being tossed around by nearly everyone who has read this report.

In my opinion, for whatever this is worth, it seems that this was intended as a "forum offering"; something for everyone to fight over and pick apart in the forums. I know that Truegambler was under pressure to release the findings, and perhaps they thought they were doing the players a favor by warning them of possible dirty deeds by Microgaming, but in doing so, I think they left themselves too much out in the open for scrutiny.

And don't get me wrong. I'm not pooh-poohing the report or the data that they collected. But to be presented in this manner causes me to question the seriousness of it. Casinomeister is THE online casino watchdog. I'm here to protect the players by giving them information. I'm also here to assist casino operators, portal operators, and anyone else who has a stake in this industry. Am I expected to blacklist a software provider for what this report indicates? Tell me, what am I supposed to do?

And what gets me, is that this causes a player vs. portal owner thing to resurface. Players should be aware that most portal owners want nothing more than honest casinos that offer fair games. To insinuate that all portal operators think otherwise is a knee-jerk response in itself.

But for now, it looks as if Truegambler is regrouping. Presently on their site is the following:

We will be releasing an addendum to the BJ report on September 14th. This addendum will provide more explanations of the statistics displayed. It will also provide more details on how the theoreticals are calculated. We will also have a FAQ will contain questions asked here at TrueGambler regarding the report and complete answers to these questions. Hopefully this addendum will satisfy everyone concerns regarding the report. Thank you for your interest and support.

I hope this isn't too little too late. This is a classic example of 20/20 hindsight damage control. This should have been part of the initial report to begin with. Hopefully more sense can be made from this in the next couple of weeks.

In the meantime, I suggest that if you have questions pertaining to this report that you post them in Truegambler's forum so that they can be properly addressed. True Gambler.com
NEW WEBCAST IS FINALLY UP!
Topics include:
  • Gonegambling and the Sunny Group
  • True Gambler's Report
  • Casinomeister's Cautions
    • All this and more here.
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    Casinomeister's newsletter is now available in three flavors: HTML, text, or AOL, (you are reading the totally bitchin' HTML version). If you would like to update your settings, please scroll down to the bottom and you'll find a link to do so. Any problems, please let me know!
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    2. Casinos you need to join!
    MUST JOIN CASINOS

    Omni Casino has been around for years. I have rarely had anyone come to me with a complaint about these guys. Why? Because they know the business and they know how to keep their players satisfied!! Receive a 20% Match Bonus up to $100 for your first deposit! Voted best payouts and best casino rewards for 2002 by Gambling Online Magazine's reader's poll. Are you not a member? Why not??

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    3. This week's humor
    An atheist was walking through the woods one day in Alaska, admiring all that evolution had created. "What majestic trees! What a powerful river! What beautiful animals!" he said to himself. As he was walking alongside the river, he heard a rustling in the bushes behind him. Turning to look, he saw a 13-foot Kodiak brown bear beginning to charge towards him. He ran as fast as he could down the path. He looked over his shoulder and saw that the bear was rapidly closing on him. Somehow, he ran even faster, so scared that tears came to his eyes. He looked again and the bear was even closer. His heart pounding in his chest, he tried to run faster yet. But alas, he tripped and fell to the ground. As he rolled over to pick himself up, the bear was right over him, reaching for him with its left paw and raising its right paw to strike him.

    "OH MY GOD! ..."

    Time stopped.

    The bear froze.

    The forest was silent.

    Even the river stopped moving ...

    As a brilliant light shone upon the man, a thunderous voice came from all around...

    "YOU DENY MY EXISTENCE FOR ALL THESE YEARS, TEACH OTHERS THAT I DON'T EXIST AND EVEN CREDIT CREATION TO SOME COSMIC ACCIDENT. DO YOU EXPECT ME TO HELP YOU OUT OF THIS PREDICAMENT? AM I TO COUNT YOU AS A BELIEVER?"

    Difficult as it was, the atheist looked directly into the light and said, "It would be hypocritical to ask to be a Christian after all these years, but perhaps you could make the bear a Christian?"

    "VERY WELL." Said God.

    The light went out.

    The river ran.

    The sounds of the forest resumed.

    ... and the bear dropped down on his knees, brought both paws together, bowed his head and spoke: "Lord, thank you for this food which I am about to receive."

    ha ha ha
    4. Forum Highlights
    Casinomeister's Forum » Online Casinos » TrueGambler / OCA: Microgaming blackjack is rigged. « Previous Next »

    Author Message
    dave_r
    Meister Member
    Username: dave_r

    Post Number: 401
    Registered: 10-1999
    Posted on Thursday, September 04, 2003 - 10:59 pm:   
    Why do online casinos cheat?

    The answer is GREED!
    They are simply not satisfied with the house advantage and want to steal more of YOUR hard earned money.

    Back in the 1960's, Dr. Edward O Thorp wrote a book called "Beat The Dealer", which started the entire card counting revolution. Since Thorp is a noted authority on the game of blackjack, very few people can deny that he is a credible expert when it comes to casino cheating (of the land based casinos in the late 50's and early 60's).

    Thorp stated...
    "Before I became seriously interested in blackjack, I, and everyone that I knew, was convinced that, although blackjack dealers in casinos were often fantastically skillful with cards and could cheat if they so desired, they did not cheat. The well-publicized argument is that the casinos enjoy a natural advantage in the game and will win anyhow. Why should a casino risk possible exposure with its resultant bad publicity, loss of customers, and perhaps even loss of their gaming license?..."

    "We might answer this with another question, 'Isn't there widespread corruption in political life and in the business world?' And also, isn't it often for the same stakes (money) and with comparable risks (loss of position or of the license to operate, bad publicity, etc.)? Why then should legalized gambling be more immune from dishonesty than 'legalized' politics or 'legalized' business?"

    "Since I was originally naive enough to swallow the widely publicized argument that blackjack as played in the casinos is generally honest, it took painful personal experience to convince me of the contrary...", says Thorp.

    "...I went on several exploratory trips with the purpose of investigating cheating. I played at most of the major casinos in Las Vegas and Reno for periods ranging from a few minutes (cheating) to several hours, with bets ranging from $1 to $50. I was cheated frequently enough to learn to classify and spot a dozen or so current techniques. There was cheating at large plush casinos, as well as at smaller out-of-the-way places. There was cheating at all betting levels, even for 25 cents!! In many additional instances, the cards behaved so strangely that I suspected cheating although I could not actually see seconds being dealt (with a good dealer it is extremely difficult to see)."

    "...I have been told by a very reliable source that, in the first five years of the Nevada Gaming Control Board's operation, they have closed down more than twenty casinos for cheating. Little, if any, publicity is generally given to these proceedings, and the casinos usually reopen promptly under new management. However, the Gaming Control Board seems to be the Nevada blackjack player's only source of appeal after being cheated..."

    Thorp lists over ten methods of cheating in "Beat The Dealer", and another few methods in his later book, "The Mathematics of Gambling". Most methods he describes were the result of corrupt casino management that were deliberately rigging the games. In most cases, the dealer wasn't stealing the $$$ for himself, but for the casino. The following methods were used:

    1)Marked cards
    2)Dealing Seconds
    3)Deck Stacking: The High-Low Pickup
    4)Deck Stacking: The Seven-Card Stepup
    5)Anchor Men
    6)Peeking
    7)Mechanics on Call
    8)Arbitrary Shuffling of Player Friendly
    Cards (Aces + Tens) To Bottom Of Deck
    9)Crimping (Bending or Warping) Cards
    10)Fautly Pay-Offs in The Favor Of The House
    11)Removal Of Ten Value Cards From The Deck
    12)Addition of 5 Value Cards To Multi-Deck
    Games

    Lack of regulation is a license to steal. Most online casinos are completely unregulated, and can rig their games in such a way as to steal your money slowly, but consistently, and still allow you to win occasionally. Instead of allowing the basic strategy blackjack player to lose at the normal rate of approx .5%, the blackjack can be rigged just like a slot machine with odds of 5% or greater. (Odds just as bad as a roulette game.) And since the source code of the turnkey provider is kept under lock and key, NOONE can prove the games are dishonest.
    No regulatory agencies test the fairness of the software. Reliable auditing firms are paid huge sums of money to release monthly special reports listing payout ratios. And yet these audit trails and gaming logs can be manufactured by the software provider. The auditing firms don't have access to the back end servers. Therefore, the software provider can cheat as much as it wants, and the audit firm will take the software providers word that the gaming logs are genuine. When you lose a fortune, and complain to the software provider that their games are rigged, they claim it was just "bad luck". So sorry for your misfortune.

    How can certain online casinos afford to give out such huge bonuses to new players if the games were honest. In some cases, the games are rigged so much, even a 20% bonus is not enough to make it a fair game.

    The fact of the matter is that many software developers in this business hire programmers to turn off jackpots, eliminate royal flushes, and implement "take down" modes into the source codes.

    There are a handful of honest software developers. Please don't get me wrong. I am not accusing everyone of being dishonest. Certain companies have ethics, morals, and credibility. Most do not.

    Just follow the money trail. In this business, almost everyone is bought and paid for.

    So what do you think? Check it out here.

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    Complaints? Kudos? Please let me know.

    Peace
    Bryan Bailey
    Webmeister
    Casinomeister
    		me
    http://www.casinomeister.com