Simulated “beginners luck”?

[MahoneyKnows]

So I have a theory about what I’d call “artificial” or “simulated” beginners luck and am posting to see if there are others who have experienced the same. I don’t have the data to back up my claim as some seem to feel they require to qualify my statements here but I can promise you I’ve done my far share of gambling at many many many different sites and more games than I care to remember.

The basis of my claim is that online casinos (especially offshore sites) have a favourable bias to new players or first time gameplay. Obviously this can work in both your favour and to your detriment. Far too many times I’ve launched a brand new to me game and have hit free spins or in game features within the first 10 spins, usually sooner. For example a couple weeks back I tried Immortal Romance for the first time and on the first spin upon loading some feature began where the screen went darker and a feature occurred…. A decent win ensued and the feeling of “this game is awesome” tickled my brain. Obviously it occurred to me that it was a random feature but the thought it had sown was that it’s a once in a while type thing - not a once in a fuckin 1000 more spins type thing…. Well you guessed it - I didn’t see that feature again for a very long time and never got the scatter feature through what seemed like an eternity - about a million (exaggeration) 2 scatter symbols - but never the third. And when I did FINALLY see that feature again the payout was probably 5-10% of that very first spin.

I’ve also launched a game for the first time, many a time, and it seemingly was a money printing press or at the very least left me with a very positive memorable experience only for that first time experience to NEVER be seen again - and trust me it’s not for a lack of trying. Almost like you are playing a different game than that first time.

Now I’m not saying this happens every time I open a new game otherwise I would be on a beach creating money by opening new game after new game - I’ve had my fair share of games that are stinkers right off the bat - but that first time experience for it to never be even sniffed again is too strange to be coincidence. Additionally Im not going to keep pouring money into a game that seems tighter than a nuns twat in the hopes of it doing something after watching a balance dwindle over 1000’s of losing spins. Which leads me to the thought that this in itself lends something like credence to my thought… I’ve known dealers who will give you the purest possible dope the first time you see them just to start cutting it to shite over time…. Everyone in the world, spare a select few “special people” out there, aren’t going to come back for a terrible experience time after time, so why wouldn’t you stack the deck in the players favour at the start?

This may sound like tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy leaning drivel - but it is my experience nonetheless.

Create a new account at a site and more times than not the first couple deposits I’ve ran up a good to large size amount. Withdraw some funds and suddenly the freaking site has a vendetta against me regardless of what game I play and typically won’t rest till it has not only the amount I’ve withdrawn but my lunch money too.

I know our friendly neighbourhood mathematicians can probably easily explain this all away - but at the same time the frequency with which it happens is just too much to be thought of as coincidence or “beginners luck”. Add on the fact that there’s benefit to the house to imbed such a “poison pill” and I have to believe it’s a well thought out trap.

I have many more examples and thoughts / rants on this but I’ll digress and see if there are those who have had similar experiences.

Before I’m asked…. Most questions have a very simple answer - I am a degenerate gambler with a highly addictive personality and self destructive tendencies.

 

[SCATT3R]

It's another one of those things everyone knows but noone can prove. Seen it far too many times for it to be a coincidence.

Another thing, which gets more and more common lately, is how on newly released slots, the near unachievable max win is achieved on the very first day. Fresh examples are, I believe, Nolimits D-Day, Possessed, and Fire in the Hole 2. It's like the slots are programmed to start at the highest point in the spin cycle, creates publicity, and then months and years of dead spins follows.

 

[irish-ranger]

So I have a theory about what I’d call “artificial” or “simulated” beginners luck and am posting to see if there are others who have experienced the same. I don’t have the data to back up my claim as some seem to feel they require to qualify my statements here but I can promise you I’ve done my far share of gambling at many many many different sites and more games than I care to remember.

The basis of my claim is that online casinos (especially offshore sites) have a favourable bias to new players or first time gameplay. Obviously this can work in both your favour and to your detriment. Far too many times I’ve launched a brand new to me game and have hit free spins or in game features within the first 10 spins, usually sooner. For example a couple weeks back I tried Immortal Romance for the first time and on the first spin upon loading some feature began where the screen went darker and a feature occurred…. A decent win ensued and the feeling of “this game is awesome” tickled my brain. Obviously it occurred to me that it was a random feature but the thought it had sown was that it’s a once in a while type thing - not a once in a fuckin 1000 more spins type thing…. Well you guessed it - I didn’t see that feature again for a very long time and never got the scatter feature through what seemed like an eternity - about a million (exaggeration) 2 scatter symbols - but never the third. And when I did FINALLY see that feature again the payout was probably 5-10% of that very first spin.

I’ve also launched a game for the first time, many a time, and it seemingly was a money printing press or at the very least left me with a very positive memorable experience only for that first time experience to NEVER be seen again - and trust me it’s not for a lack of trying. Almost like you are playing a different game than that first time.

Now I’m not saying this happens every time I open a new game otherwise I would be on a beach creating money by opening new game after new game - I’ve had my fair share of games that are stinkers right off the bat - but that first time experience for it to never be even sniffed again is too strange to be coincidence. Additionally Im not going to keep pouring money into a game that seems tighter than a nuns twat in the hopes of it doing something after watching a balance dwindle over 1000’s of losing spins. Which leads me to the thought that this in itself lends something like credence to my thought… I’ve known dealers who will give you the purest possible dope the first time you see them just to start cutting it to shite over time…. Everyone in the world, spare a select few “special people” out there, aren’t going to come back for a terrible experience time after time, so why wouldn’t you stack the deck in the players favour at the start?

This may sound like tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy leaning drivel - but it is my experience nonetheless.

Create a new account at a site and more times than not the first couple deposits I’ve ran up a good to large size amount. Withdraw some funds and suddenly the freaking site has a vendetta against me regardless of what game I play and typically won’t rest till it has not only the amount I’ve withdrawn but my lunch money too.

I know our friendly neighbourhood mathematicians can probably easily explain this all away - but at the same time the frequency with which it happens is just too much to be thought of as coincidence or “beginners luck”. Add on the fact that there’s benefit to the house to imbed such a “poison pill” and I have to believe it’s a well thought out trap.

I have many more examples and thoughts / rants on this but I’ll digress and see if there are those who have had similar experiences.

Before I’m asked…. Most questions have a very simple answer - I am a degenerate gambler with a highly addictive personality and self destructive tendencies.

100% correct first ever deposit was 20 quid on betway which resulted in a 7.5k withdrawal every game I played was on fire this went on for 1 week then the switch was hit.
Second casino was casumo 4 weeks of constant withdrawals then yet again the switch was hit, followed by the next 5 years seeking out deposit bonuses followed by my 3rd year on gamstop there's fuck all random on luck involved

 

[MahoneyKnows]

It's like the slots are programmed to start at the highest point in the spin cycle, creates publicity, and then months and years of dead spins follows.

I’ve noticed this in our physical machines at local establishments as well that are regulated by the “Lottery Comission” system which is obviously an arm of the feds. It’s not too bad if it’s just a software update that inserts a new game on the machine - but still noticeable as a dick on one’s forehead - pays out where it almost makes you feel guilty at first just to shut it down by the end of the month and take it all back. It’s worse if it’s a new machine altogether….. pays stupid at first then the grim reaper comes to town to not only take it all back but also make sure the machine itself is paid for tenfold…. Gotta create that fan base and sink the hook to where the fish can’t get off. Another thing I’ve noticed about the local bandits here is they seem to pay at a good clip around Christmas… gotta prop up that economy and get people spending more at stores which leads to a better tax rake…. Here we have slot machines in 90+% of bars/lounges so overall effect is substantial.

 

[MahoneyKnows]

100% correct first ever deposit was 20 quid on betway which resulted in a 7.5k withdrawal every game I played was on fire this went on for 1 week then the switch was hit.
Second casino was casumo 4 weeks of constant withdrawals then yet again the switch was hit, followed by the next 5 years seeking out deposit bonuses followed by my 3rd year on gamstop there's fuck all random on luck involved

Once upon a time when I was disciplined I would turn my 20-50 bucks into a 1000 and ditch the site, rinse, repeat. Others thought I was lucky when it was really just a lesson learned from this scenario. Deposit - win - withdraw - deposit a few thousand over time and never have that same experience. Eventually after tucking my tail and getting frustrated enough I’d open an account on a new site and suddenly I’m a “lucky guy” again…. After the same scenario plays out a couple times that lightbulb moment happened and off I went. I think most humans tend to get “barrelled in” after blowing thousands at a site and convince themselves that the big hits gonna come soon, it’s got to, right? Just a few more deposits and it’ll come - I can’t leave now when I’ve gone this far - which is being leveraged against us much to “their” delight.

 

[Mark_Lottomart]

Back when I worked at number/colour we used to have a player who only ever made one spin on each slot he played during the session. Presumably he had a similar theory that you’re luckier when you first play.

Needless to say, he wasn’t ahead of the casino.

 

[goatwack]

Yes, it's a thing. Been saying this for the longest time!

Without question the games would bestow early bonus rounds or fortuitous winning combinations, that only in hindsight seem nigh- on impossible.

The disparity with a well-worn slot compared to playing said slot at a different site is obvious to say the least, hence the site-hopping. That is, until the game's broken in and recouping its munificent opening pretty much everywhere one plays at!

It's almost as if......(no, I can't)....

....almost like....

.....the games....(surely not)....

.....the slots are.....

(deep breath)....

....programmed to create an early good impression and get punters....hooked??

 

[The Reel Story]

The most obvious reason for this not being true is because it would be so easy to recognise and exploit. So if it was the case, we'd all be raking money in.

The more nuanced reason is that it's because it's psychological. The human brain remembers the positive and the exceptional and suppresses the negative and the mundane.

That's why gamblers gamble in the first place, because our brains give us a rose tinted view of our position.

What you would find, if you had the actual data, is that you probably lose slightly more often than you win on new games. And that would really confuse you because your recollection would feel very different.

 

[goatwack]

There's nothing rose-tinted about many - not all - games playing comparatively great from the outset.....it's just the way it is.

Of course one loses more when playing the games over duration, hence them not being new games anymore. Nor is there any real basis in everyday Joes seeking to exploit systems, but rather, just playing games they're accustomed to at the same stakes, unbelievably!

Chances are many will play the same set of games, albeit in a different setting, often finding an 'upturn' in the game's generosity, when their regular haunts have stagnated. Shouldn't make a difference, as random is as random does, and yet seemingly it's an accepted norm

Perhaps these early boons on newer or even unknown slots have just been coincidental delusional fever dreams?

 

[MahoneyKnows]

The more nuanced reason is that it's because it's psychological. The human brain remembers the positive and the exceptional and suppresses the negative and the mundane.

The exact opposite is true….
“Loss aversion refers to the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains. This can lead to a heightened emotional response to losses, making them more memorable and impactful than wins. Additionally, the experience of a loss may trigger feelings of regret or frustration, which can contribute to the strong memory of the event. This phenomenon is a key aspect of behavioral economics and has been studied extensively in the context of decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.”

People may speak about their wins instead of the losses - but we are hardwired to remember the losses more so than the wins.

 

[The Reel Story]

It's not quite that simple. Yes, loss aversion exists, but it's the brain trying to avoid pain. In terms of long term, the brain suppresses that pain and negativity (hence rose tinted glasses. Whenever you look back on something it is nearly always better than you remember. It's why people go back to abusive partners and why women have more children despite it being a hugely painful endeavour).

Loss aversion is actually what causes us to gamble. The brain is chasing a win to numb thr pain of the loss.

 

[Guntis]

It's not quite that simple. Yes, loss aversion exists, but it's the brain trying to avoid pain. In terms of long term, the brain suppresses that pain and negativity (hence rose tinted glasses. Whenever you look back on something it is nearly always better than you remember. It's why people go back to abusive partners and why women have more children despite it being a hugely painful endeavour).

Loss aversion is actually what causes us to gamble. The brain is chasing a win to numb thr pain of the loss.

There is some good (indirect) advice in that video. Essentially, to control/kill that subconscious desire, an optimal solution would be to:

1. Decide on a budget before playing
2. Be prepared to lose it all
3. If you lose it, don't regret it.

It took years for me to start employing points 2 and 3. I mean developing an ability to overcome even massive losses with ease. It helps mentally, and you can focus more easily on your real life, e.g., work, family, friends, etc. Otherwise, you keep unnecessary thoughts in your mind that drain your mental energy.

But with deciding on a budget, i'm still working on it, lol..

 

[Kroffe]

I know its seeing less play these days, but the DoA2 20 000x-100 000x wins that were all over the place during the first couple months of its release seem to have almost completely disappeared.

Slots seemingly being more generous when they are newly released only to 'cool down' after hype has been generated seems pretty common.
But it kind of makes sense, why would people play Book of big bass xtrasplitways 32 if Book of big bass xtrasplitways 31 was still playing the same as it did on release day.

Planned obsolescence exists in so many other areas, so why not slots?

 

[Guntis]

When DOA2 was released, you could go to YouTube the next day and search for Dead or Alive 2 Big Win, and as a rule, find UK, FI, and SE streamers aligned one after the other...hah, but that's not the case. With Netent games after the release, it was almost a usual thing to hit something decent.

I remember finding £2 on one casino's account and going to see what that DOA2 is all about and hit 5000x at 18p. After that, never again. But through this time i rarely played DOA 2 for long - it seems to me like those big wins are somewhere far in the galaxy. Normal DOA to me is more realistic.

 

[justdoit]

There is some good (indirect) advice in that video. Essentially, to control/kill that subconscious desire, an optimal solution would be to:

1. Decide on a budget before playing
2. Be prepared to lose it all
3. If you lose it, don't regret it.

It took years for me to start employing points 2 and 3. I mean developing an ability to overcome even massive losses with ease. It helps mentally, and you can focus more easily on your real life, e.g., work, family, friends, etc. Otherwise, you keep unnecessary thoughts in your mind that drain your mental energy.

But with deciding on a budget, i'm still working on it, lol..

I thing controlling gambling is by experience, new gambler on first 4-5 years will have no control, then slovenly you start to chill out,

 

[bamberfishcake]

Would they if they could? Yes.

Is it possible? Yes.

Do all players agree that this is a phenomenon with new games or fresh casinos? Yes.

Could it be designed in a way that targeted and coaxed specific players into spending more while pushing traffic into new games and providing max-win publicity? Yes.

Could this be finely controlled by software to avoid the risk of exploitation? Easily.

Does the industry have systems in place to monitor and prevent such deception? No.

If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, what is it?

Edit: owing to my age-old tradition of shooting from the hip in the mornings, I would like to present a counter-argument:

Do we start new games with a fresh mindset and a blank RTP? Yes.

Are you more likely to meet the designed RTP the more spins you do on a game? Yes.

Therefore, could the RTP appear, or be more volatile when trying a new game? I would say, Yes!

If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, could it be a swan in drag?

In conclusion, after presenting my innermost, ill-thought-out thoughts, I still don't know if it is a duck

 

[Kroffe]

Would they if they could? Yes.

Is it possible? Yes.

Do all players agree that this is a phenomenon with new games or fresh casinos? Yes.

Could it be designed in a way that targeted and coaxed specific players into spending more while pushing traffic into new games and providing max-win publicity? Yes.

Could this be finely controlled by software to avoid the risk of exploitation? Easily.

Does the industry have systems in place to monitor and prevent such deception? No.

If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, what is it?

Edit: owing to my age-old tradition of shooting from the hip in the mornings, I would like to present a counter-argument:

Do we start new games with a fresh mindset and a blank RTP? Yes.

Are you more likely to meet the designed RTP the more spins you do on a game? Yes.

Therefore, could the RTP appear, or be more volatile when trying a new game? I would say, Yes!

If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, could it be a swan in drag?

In conclusion, after presenting my innermost, ill-thought-out thoughts, I still don't know if it is a duck

Swan in drag, or maybe a platypus.
Saw a documentary some time ago that covered platypus among other things, they are pretty weird as far as animals go.

 

[MahoneyKnows]

Walks and talks like a duck - must be a platypus I suppose.

4-5 years on these things? - been rolling in the mud since I had to pump change into them.

I don’t watch “YouTube” videos of others playing games - any game. Maybe to figure out how to replace a squared off seal in my Ford F150 - but never to live vicariously or glean an opinion.

“Hey Danny! You play that new slot…? How was it?”
“Absolute trash bro - just took my my mortgage payment”
“Wonderful - I’ll do the same!”

 

[MahoneyKnows]

Shortly after I posted this I decided to test my hypothesis… keep in mind website time and post times vary depending on where we all are on this rock we call earth…. Here are the results of two games I’ve never played before on my first however many spins.


The first game - first spin was greeted with a “collect” and “bonus wheel” feature - 25c -$10. Next game (Book of Atem - ripoff of Book of Dead (or any other “Book of whatever” games)) landed 3 books for the bonus feature within 5 spins. Neither of which did anything remotely similar on the spins that would follow. Where there’s smoke there must have once been more smoke right?