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Thread: Are Bet365 cheating on their game(s)?

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    Are Bet365 cheating on their game(s)?

    Here are the 'table games'

    http://games.bet365.com/home?groupid=TableGames

    on Bet365's Games site.

    Note the game 'Three of a Kind'

    The rules for this game are here

    http://games.bet365.com/GamesHelp.as...d=THREEOFAKIND

    Basically 3 cards are dealt, each is either a 9, T, J, Q, K or A, and the object of the game is to get 3 cards the same, e.g., 3 9s. The cards are drawn from three separate decks of six cards, and having discarded a given card, it can be drawn again.

    There is no strategy - after the deal, if two cards match, and the 3rd is different, the third is discarded and drawn again. If all three are the same, all 3 are held, and if all three are different, then no cards are held and all three cards drawn again.

    The game pays only for 3 of a kinds, according to the following paytable:

    9's - 3
    10's - 5
    j's - 8
    q's - 10
    k's - 25
    a's - 100

    Now it doesn't take a genius to figure out that with six cards to choose from, the odds of any given 3 of a kind on the deal should be 1 / (6*6*6) = 1/216. That means the hand '3 Aces on the deal' pays 100/216 = 0.46. Quite a lot.

    It doesn't take much more genius to figure out that the odds of 2 As on the deal is:

    1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 +
    1/6 * 5/6 * 1/6 +
    5/6 * 1/6 * 1/6

    Which is obviously 15/216.

    So the odds of getting 2 Aces on the deal is 15/216. And if you have 2 Aces on the deal, then the odds of getting a third is 1 in 6 (discarded cards can be redealt).

    Which pays 100. So the payout for 2 Aces on the deal is 15/216 * 1/6 * 100 = 1.157

    Now obviously there's a big problem here. We expect the total payout of the game to be less than 1.

    But we find that the payout for the hand '2 Aces on the deal' ALONE is already more than 1.

    So either bet365 are going to lose money like they're going out of business.

    OR.....

    They are cheating.

    A quick test session shows it's the latter.

    I took the first six hands where I was dealt three different cards on the deal, and counted the number of Aces. I was playing 25 lines, so that's 75 cards per draw. In six hands, therefore, 450 cards are dealt, and you'd expect 450/6 = 75 of those to be Aces.

    How many did I get? 24. The chances of this being from a fair deck is 1 in 4,498,393,408,389.

    Quite plainly the game cheats.

    This is disgraceful and the game needs to be pulled and all losses refunded, the game is cheating by design, this is not a programming error, they designed it to cheat the player, this is obvious from the paytable.

    Also in breach of their Regulator's Code of Practice, which states:

    'All licence holders are required to publish their rules where they are visible and accessible to all those who visit or use their facilities for gambling. ‘Rules’ will be regarded as the terms and conditions of the gambling as well as the rules by which any particular game or activity has to be undertaken.'

    'Licence holders are required to expect that where customers may reasonably assume rules to be well established, understood or unchanged, but they are not, due emphasis will be given to those variant rules. Licence holders should monitor customer interpretation of rules and be prepared to make appropriate amendments where misunderstandings occur'

    'A licence holder should not implement game designs or features that may reasonably be expected to mislead the customer about the likelihood of particular results occurring.'



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    Well spotted. I played 50 games in free mode, here is the list of initial hands I got:
    9XJ, 999, J99, J9A, JX9, JXQ, XXK, JKX, 9KX, JX9, 9J9, XJ9, J99, 9Q9, QX9, KQ9, J99, QXQ, K9A, 9XK, 9JQ, XQQ, J9Q, Q99, 9JX, JXQ, J9X, A99, JJX, 99J, 9QJ, KXJ, JX9, 9XX, X9X, X9K, 9XA, K9X, QJJ, J9K, JXK, XXJ, 9AJ, J9X, J9J, 9JX, QXJ, AXJ, A9J, 9X9 (X means 10).
    The frequencies of the cards are
    9: 48, X: 34, J: 35, Q: 15, K: 11, A; 7. The chi-squared value is 53.2. Under the assumption that the cards are drawn with equal probability and independently, the probability of a chi-squared value of 53.2 or higher is about 0.0000000003. Therefore I am satisfied that the cards are not drawn with equal probability.
    "The voice of reason"



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    Nice work gentlemen.

    Now THIS is the kind of cheating claim I can believe I.e. coupled with stats and odds and informed analysis. Keep it up



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    Is this a game that's unique to Bet365 or is it something available elsewhere?
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    The math that you guys are using is way above my own limited skills..but I know that thelawnet is not one to cry foul/cheating, if he wasn't sure. And with GM being a Math Professor, I have full confidence that what you both say is true.

    To echo Nifty....THIS is exactly the type of cheating claim that I can get behind...one that is backed up with facts and math...not one based on limited play and/or "a feeling".

    Well spotted indeed. And has anyone contacted the Wiz? Also, Bryan should be informed of this thread, as Bet365 is accredited here, and as such, owes him an explanation.



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    Quote Originally Posted by thelawnet View Post
    Here are the 'table games'
    http://games.bet365.com/home?groupid=TableGames
    on Bet365's Games site.
    Note the game 'Three of a Kind'

    The rules for this game are here
    http://games.bet365.com/GamesHelp.as...d=THREEOFAKIND
    I checked that "Rules" page - and I can't see where it says either that the cards are drawn from 6 decks - or that they are drawn randomly with an equal chance of each card being drawn.
    Where did you get these two key bits of information from?

    KK
    I'd rather be playing golf...
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    Quote Originally Posted by KasinoKing View Post
    I checked that "Rules" page - and I can't see where it says either that the cards are drawn from 6 decks - or that they are drawn randomly with an equal chance of each card being drawn.
    Where did you get these two key bits of information from?

    KK
    I didn't say they were drawn from six decks. I said there are three separate decks of six cards.

    You can see during play that there is only one card of each denomination.

    9h
    Tc
    Jd
    Qs
    Kd
    Ac

    Also that the cards re-appear on the draw.

    Now if there was for instance a 9s, 9c as well, but only the Ac, that would be fair enough.

    But the game clearly represents that the 9 is only the 9h, the T only the Tc, etc.

    Considering this is a table game, it's not justifiable.



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    Quote Originally Posted by KasinoKing View Post
    I checked that "Rules" page - and I can't see where it says either that the cards are drawn from 6 decks - or that they are drawn randomly with an equal chance of each card being drawn.
    Where did you get these two key bits of information from?

    KK
    The evidence clear shows that the cards are not drawn with equal probabilities, this is an important feature of the game, so the rules are misleading by omission. The blackjack rules don't state either that cards have equal probabilities, would you consider it acceptable if low cards dealt were dealt with a higher probability at the expense of 10s, Js, Qs and Ks?
    "The voice of reason"



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    Quote Originally Posted by KasinoKing View Post
    I checked that "Rules" page - and I can't see where it says either that the cards are drawn from 6 decks - or that they are drawn randomly with an equal chance of each card being drawn.
    Where did you get these two key bits of information from?

    KK
    I understand squat about the math, so I thank the math heads!

    If it's a table/card game and the cards are NOT drawn with equal probability, it's a slot game. Right? And should be noted as such.
    The trust of the innocent is the liar's most useful tool. -- Stephen King



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    Couldn't agree more with grandmaster. One should be able to assume that the cards are dealt randomly from the deck(s) of cards without it being written in the same way one should be able to asume the clothes sold in the levis store are real, unless one play at a casino being run by some mobsters or goto the levis store on the streets in Turkey.

    Good find guys, will be fun to what excuses bet365 comes up with.



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