pokeraddict
Webmaster
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2002
- Location
- Las Vegas
Second - The so called "proof" shown at the other forum... does NOT prove anything.
It seems from a 2+2 thread most of the non believers do not use Poker Tracker and all of the Poker Tracker users are 100% believers. This leads me to believe the stats might need more explaining to help non PT users fully understand.
One cheat account has stats of 94/72 with overall aggression factors over 20 with river AF's that cannot be calculated because he never calls, he only folds or raises. He is winning 32BB/100 in limit and 311ptbb/100 in NL. So what does all this mean?
The first stat I show as 94 means that a player puts money in the pot preflop 94% of the time. It is safe to say that 5 of the other 6% are unraised big blinds so this means the player is flopping 99% of the time. Out of 100 hands he only flops once, maybe twice before the flop. In one 100 hand sample this player folded 3 times. Once a player held AA, another time a player held QQ and a 3rd time it had been 3 bet when it got to him. In the third hand no hands were shown so it cannot be determined what he or the other 2 players had.
The 72 refers to his preflop raise %. So not only is he flopping virtually every hand (unless another player has a monster) he is raising preflop 72% of the time. Since he seems to play an average of 4.5 players per hand he is raising roughly every time each orbit except once.
The 32bb/100 in limit refers to a win rate of 32 big bets per 100 hands. In the limits where these accusations have been made this would mean that every 100 hands this particular player is winning an astonishing $9600. The 311ptbb/100 is slightly different then limit. 1 ptbb is double the big blind in NL. This player is playing 10/20 NL. His win rate per 100 hands in NL is $12,440. A good player might win 5bb/100 and 10ptbb/100. Even 100 hands would be a big enough sample to know something was up. To put it in a more normal stake formula this would be like winning over $1200 in an hour of 1/2 NL and being able to do it consistently. With the posted PT's this would mean for you to mimic the same results in a 10 hour day you would have to win over $12,000 in 1/2 NL. That's right, over a $12,000 win in a day long $2 big blind NL game. If you use PT find 1 player with 50+ hands that has these stats or better. It's simple you can't, especially the infinite river AF. You probably can't find a player with win rates half that with over 50 hands and with 1000 hands you will certainly not.
Also this players W$atSD (won money at showdown) is over 90% and keep in mind none of these losses are with him calling a second best hand. All the losses are from players going all in before the river or from a handful of cheat open checks and op checks. Since he can see others cards why would he call a loser? He either has you beat or he doesn't.
How is this player flopping every hand, raising almost every hand preflop, winning every showdown he puts money in the pot for and taking the iggest winrate in history? There's only 1 answer. Any poker player knows a 94/72 player is a total maniac fish that is going to go bust very quickly.
Combine this with the massive chip dump last night of roughly $30,000 calling hands like an unimproved 34 on the river for $1700 while getting accused left and right for previous cheating and the fact AP is ignoring everybody demanding an immediate statement is really damning. Why hasn't AP locked these accounts yet? Why has AP ignored players since even before this went public? One of these players chip dumped an entire bankroll midweek last week. That's why this finally broke. Why would AP allow that?
If all of this does not convince you what will?
FWIW I have not been taken for anything. I simply posted about this because this is a very serious situation that needs to be addressed by AP and needs to be recognized by the entire industry. Either they have been hacked or they have been cheating. If they were hacked and have still done nothing, not even lock accounts then they have really screwed up. If they are in on it then they have ruined their business. There are many that believe Mark Seif is involved. I think that is far fetched but the more AP ignores this the more speculation that will come out. Mark Seif has been accused of this very thing in the past at AP even though that evidence did not have any facts unlike the mountain of evidence here.
Believe the facts or dismiss them as made up if you choose. The only way I can see how one could dismiss these allegations is if they believe all of facts are made up, not because multiple players can play like that and win even a little, much less an absolute fortune in one of the highest limit games online against some of the biggest names in online poker. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion though.