How Many Online Casinos Cheat?

[ThodorisK]

I used the basic strategy specified for boss media single deck blackjack, and I did not violate it not even once during those 479 hands.

[Avatar73]

I've done a simulation in Java on this. Single deck BM rules, +ve EV.

Over a billion hands, you will be roughly 1k up, but over the course you may well go down to -2k or so.

It is called variation, and is to be expected. Unfortunately it seems you got on the wrong side of this, aka bad luck, but your results are not indicative of cheating software.

I also played here with pleasant expectations, and ended up losing 100EUR or so. I made it all back plus a bit more, but only by increasing my bet size and playing a bit riskier.

It was after this that I completed my simulation, and realised that a +ve EV might not be quite as good as it sounds - you could still end up -3k or so, and it takes so long to make any money flatbetting 1 or 2 that you might as well just go out and pick up pennies!

I KNOW some places cheat, this has been proven, but I don't think reputable casinos with reputable software do. The worst that may happen is that they worsen your odds on huge bets, but I even doubt this highly.

You were just unlucky. It's called GAMBLING !!!

[kimss]

Originally Posted by ThodorisK

Bonus hunters, beware of the monthly bonuses: The software remembers how much you have won in the past (that's exactly what an "adjusted payoff" means), and they are waiting for you to come back for a monthly reload.

I have already quit online gambling but couldn't help noticing this. I myself have pretty much confirmed this aswell in MG software during my 250.000+ spins excersice. It seems you can force the jackpot whenever you want it to come by loosing big in the previous game. Keep pulling those stats and do your own research based on factual wagering - not what you think or what you believe. It's so much nicer talking to people whi accually did the checking, and didn't just base their conclusion on a calculator (which works correctly without any fuzzy logig here and there).

And for thos that dissagree, I challanged you earlier - and I do it again - check out for youself. You will not only be stunned, you will get healed from online gambling aswell, So it's a very nice payoff in the end!

Happy wagering people - long live the landbased casino's!

[Avatar73]

Ok that is an interesting point.

I busted out the last 5 times at 32red/betdirect, and that was after winning in previous months.
Chances of this are about 0.01%.

Also I hit a royal somewhere, then the texas hold em bonus in the same place loses me 400 in 1k wagered, and that is staggering.

[ThodorisK]

It is absolutelly wrong to distinguish between bad luck and statistical evidence for cheating. Statistical evidence IS bad luck. A bad luck which had 25% to happen is the same type of statistical evidence for cheating as a bad luck which had 1 in a trillion to happen. The only difference is the degree.

But there are also some considerations which amplify the cheating probability. Let me remind you some:

A cheating of 1-2 hands out of 100, needs hundreds of thousands of hands for this degree of statistical certainty to be above 99%. And even then, the supporters of online casinos will counterargue that this has only happened to you, and to the 1% of the players. And they will also counterargue that since you gamble a lot in other casinos, this was highly probable to happen in one casino.

Therefore, since it is impossible to statistically indicate with a high degree of certainty such a small cheating (which is more than enough to make certain the profits and cover bonus expenses), why wouldnt the casinos cheat? Because we have to trust what these "independent accountants" and "regulatory bodies" such as e-cogra, say? Why? Because we have to be idiots? People get bribed with a high risk of going to jail. These people have not even the risk of jail to fear.

I know its hard to admit that we were idiots that we trusted them. But mistakes give knowledge. Besides, it was not entirely stupidity. In some games like poker and single deck blackjack, you can have an edge. And if you have an edge and bet small, you have a small probability of losing your bankroll and a high probability of never losing your bankroll and keep winning money to infinity. Besides this, every human has a degree of intuition, and if this is just 51% successfull in its predictions, it can exceed the 0.5% edge of blackjack and thus have an edge. So yes, even roulette can be beaten (Now how I am 100% certain of the power of intuition, is another story). But I call gamblers idiots because they think that the probability of doubling their bankroll in roulette by betting small (with a 50% successfull intuition, which is also the condition of the presupposition that intuition is bullshit) is about 45% whereas it is not even 1%, and they never cared to find the probability formula for gambler's ruin. So why we were not entirely stupid that we trusted online casinos? Because even if the probability that an online casino does not cheat is only 10%, then you have an almost 10% probability of keep winning money to infinity when you have an edge. So, yes, I was an idiot when I almost eliminated the probability that casinos cheat at online poker, as I thought that they had no interest of doing so, as the 5% rake is huge comparing with the house edge landbased casinos have in roulette. But after extreme bad luck I realised that they have an interest to cheat:Since it is possible for good players to have an edge even after the 5% is taken from them, then these players would take a considerable percentage of the deposited money, and only the rest would go to the rake. So if the casino cheats these players, then the casino will keep the 100% of the deposited money. I think when online poker first came in, there was no cheating. But after the good players were taking a lot of the deposited money, the casinos thought: No way! We have to take action.

The only reasonable argument that online casinos do not cheat is that PERHAPS SOME casinos might have decided not to use cheating software, because they were scared of even the small probability of this to be found out sometime, and they want to stay in business for many years, like banks. But which casinos have decided as such? If (at casino: Willhill, Skybetvegas) and (at poker: Willhill, Sportingbet, 888.com Ladbrokes and Grosvernor) cheat, who is left? I forced myself to stop playing there, so you can imagine the "bad luck" I met there.

I dont want online gambling to collapse. But until they change their cheating practices, I will be warning players as often as I can or decide so. But they have to proove to us they dont cheat. And this is not an easy task. They have to communicate between them and organize MANY independent controlling bodies and fight for their legalisation. It is their right since landbased casinos are legal. Perhaps they dont need to proove anything and their profits keep increasing instead of starting decreasing. Is that so? Are their profits keep increasing? Does anybody know? I noticed Willhill is giving all poker players a 500$ bonus. Doesn't that mean that their profits decreased? If so aren't the rumors that online poker is rigged responsible?

[pokeraddict]

Thodo, where were you when the whole Absolute Poker cheating thing exploded? It seemed right up your alley.

[ThodorisK]

I am reading this thread now. Hey, you changed your mind? A casino has indeed interest in cheating poker players?

[ThodorisK]

Just to concentrate the facts in this thread, I copy here the facts which I posted in the thread about VC:

wagered= 9100$
hands=7483
averege bet=1.216$
(most of the bets were 1$, very rarely 2$, and if I remember well, less than 20 times 3$)
profit/loss=-148$

I made only 8 violations of basic strategy (by mistake), 2 of which prooved to be a better choice than basic strategy. I think the cost of these violations is not greater than 0-2$.

The lowest point my bankroll reached (the greatest loss I met) during this wagering, was at hand No 6696, where the stats were:

wagered=8150$
hands=6696
average bet=1.217$
profit/loss=-220.5$

[cyprean]

Cliff Notes: Game fairness does not equal to casino fairness


Royal Vegas casino (Fortune Lounge group member) uses a Microgaming software which is viewed to be very fair. However even though the games are fair, there are always room for the casino to steal the winnings at a later stage.

http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/...000-euros.html

[kengam]

I haven't read through this whole thread but search out English Harbour and Odds on software and you will see that casinos can and do cheat. The management here defended them until the end, but have we ever seen the double up variation that they were trying to have us believe was in the works?


Here is a link to the epic and locked thread
http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/...-cheating.html