Major Absolute Poker Issue

[GaryWatson]

Originally Posted by lots0

So besides being a super user card cheat he/she is an idiot as well...
Ya that makes a lot of sense...

You don't like AP.... Don't play there.

Have you asked a qualified independent investigator to look at your evidence? I know you all believed AP was guilty before you even began to gather any evidence, so it would only fair to ask an independent 3rd party to take a look before passing judgment (oops too late for that, you've already made yourselves judge and jury and now your trying hard to be the executioner... ) Mob justice is always so.... fair and open minded...(sarcasm)

It would be difficult to find anyone independant. It a bad thing all round for online poker. The whole industry could be affected by this. High stakes players who are calling out AP could lose a lot of their income over this.

I would call many of the pro players qualified enough to determine irregular hands.

Most people are used to hearing rigged stories. Very few believe it. The complainee usually gets laughed off the forum but this time there seems to be a very strong case.

[I Like Pie]

Originally Posted by lots0

So besides being a super user card cheat he/she is an idiot as well...
Ya that makes a lot of sense...

Cause we all know that all criminals are smart

[SeattleSinner]

That response from AP shows one of two things:

1. They obviously have no idea what is going on. (And I wouldn't put it past their staff that this is the case)

2. They are involved in this scam which is why they havent "uncovered" anything.

[pokeraddict]

Originally Posted by SeattleSinner

That response from AP shows one of two things:

1. They obviously have no idea what is going on. (And I wouldn't put it past their staff that this is the case)

2. They are involved in this scam which is why they havent "uncovered" anything.

Exactly. Anybody that has a clue at the very least sees the blatant HU chip dumping. It's not in AP's best interest to do anything here even if they are not involved.

Funny how calling the worst possible hand on the river for $1700 isn't odd. Also it's is not odd to call all in with T9 with no draws on the turn and just happen to run into the few hands you can beat without improving. What a joke.

What AP can do to convince us is show us hh's from endless times this player called ten high all in on the turn w/o any draws and lost and other situations where the players made smiliar plays but were not ahead.

[pokeraddict]

This is on page 65 of the monster part 3 thread at 2+2. This is well beyond my math skills but it seems like everyone agrees his math is correct. Thanks to Wolfskin for this. 1 in 20 trillion I guess this means? Nice to know AP thinks this is nothing to be alarmed about.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&fpart=65&vc=1

I did some statistical research on what's possible in 100 hand spans and 500 hands spans and what's not. The statistical analysis I use are based on the normal curve of distribution. The data used is of one of the best and most respected players on pokerstars in the 25/50 NL game against tough competition with a sample size of 13400 heads-up hands winning approximately 3.8 bb/100 using overbet-shove techniques.

100 hand intervalls:
Mean: 3.49bb/100
Standard Deviation: 65.08bb/100



Results:
for 100 hand spans using 13400 hands the confidence interval (usually you use 95%, that means in 97.5% you will be below this win rate over 100 hands) is:
90%: 103.65bb/100
95%: 124.07bb/100
99%: 164.15bb/100
99.999%: 283.99bb/100
99.99999999999%: 480.77bb/100
or 1:20000000000000 or 1:2E13

500 hand intervalls:
Mean: 1.9bb/100 (different because I only use 13000 hands)
Standard Deviation: 29.32bb/100

confidence intervall for 500 hand spans using a 13000 hand sample:
90%: 46.32bb/100
95%: 55.56bb/100
99%: 73.62bb/100
99.9999999999999999999999: 299.09bb/100
or 1:2E24

[Pinababy69]

Originally Posted by lots0

Just for you Pinababy69... Yes I do play poker, but only for small stakes. Try as I might, I'm not very good, but I still like playing.

I currently have one of my guys going over the PT software, I don't know yet if the software 'phones home' regularly or not till I hear back from him on what he found.

Thanks lots0. You are the same type of player as me then. I have my moments, but overall I'm not that good either, lol.

I'd be interested to hear what conclusion you come to about the PT software. My statement was certainly not based on any technical knowledge, only on my impression of how it seemed to work when I d/l'd and installed it.

Originally Posted by chuchu59

I am no poker expert but from what i have read from the 2+2 forum and the posts from pokeraddict and BBPoker it is obvious that something is amiss and that chip dumping actually occured at least. Of course, unless the guy actually admits it, you can always argue that this is not the case but surely the evidence is damning even to a novice like me.

Totally agreed Chuchu. I couldn't have said it better myself.

Originally Posted by Zoozie

Run some statistics and find the odds for a maniac going on such a lucky streak besides making the correct river decision 179 times in a row.

Exactly Zoozie!! To put it in the simplest terms, what are the odds of flipping a coin and it coming up heads 179 times in a row? Maybe not the best analogy as with poker, there is an element of skill and reading your opponents...but NO ONE can make the correct call 179 times in a row. Not possible.

Originally Posted by pokeraddict

4. AP has asked a poker affiliate forum to not allow discussion of this and the thread was removed from their forum by the owner (shame on them).

Shame on them indeed Pokeraddict. Which forum was this, if you don't mind me asking?

Originally Posted by Casinomeister

I received an email response from AP overnight. I don't think they'll mind me posting it here:

That response certainly leaves alot to be desired. I'd have to go back and check, but it seems similar to the standard "form" type email they sent out to some of the players who had emailed inquiring as to what was going on.

Furthermore, the play of the players in question did not substantiate claims that they were involved in chip dumping, or any other improper activity.

Ha ha...okay Absolute Poker. No chip dumping? Who the hell is checking the hand histories.....the three blind mice?

Originally Posted by SeattleSinner

That response from AP shows one of two things:

1. They obviously have no idea what is going on. (And I wouldn't put it past their staff that this is the case)

2. They are involved in this scam which is why they havent "uncovered" anything.

Agreed SeattleSinner. And my vote would probably be for number one....total incompetence.

[pokeraddict]

Originally Posted by pokeraddict
4. AP has asked a poker affiliate forum to not allow discussion of this and the thread was removed from their forum by the owner (shame on them).

Shame on them indeed Pokeraddict. Which forum was this, if you don't mind me asking?

Pokeraffiliateworld.com

http://www.pokeraffiliateworld.com/f...te-thread.html

I removed the thread on request of AP upper management. They will be giving the affiliates an official statement via PAW.

AFAIK AP never gave them a statement beyond the one issued by Chipleader. In his blog he doesn't mention anybody in AP's upper managemnt though but does mention Chipleader saying the thread was "slanderous".

That's right, instead of allowing a free discussion for affiliates to give input on where to go from there (like not promoting AP/UB, getting together to push AP into a 3rd party review, pushing AP into a response etc.) Jeremy deletes the entire thread at the request of Absolute Poker. He then even went into his blog and calls out the rest of the community for doubting AP. Although he has promoted poker for many years he does not seem to have any concept of the game or how to read Poker Tracker stats. I guess the other thought is his relationship with AP/UB has gotten in the way with the fact multiple players are running on a 20 trillion to 1 shot streak with about the worst possible preflop stats one can have. If a normal players W$atSD is 50% (its slightly higher) then winning 179 coin tosses in a row is a good comparison. It's probably closer to winning 160 coin tosses in a row. It's still not possible.

[pokeraddict]

This is not completely related but it goes against AP's credibility for sure. Pokertips.org has just caught AP scraping content off their site and calling it their own. Pokertips state this was written in 2003. If you go to the Internet Archives you will see it was on Pokertips site on or before October 5th 2003, on AP's site it was not recorded until November 2005.

http://www.pokertips.org/strategy/longhand.php

http://www.absolutepoker.com/texas-h...-longhand.html

The announcement can be found here:

http://www.pokertips.org/forums/showthread.php?t=51313

Just add this to the mountain of dishonest things they have done in the past. Site scraping really hits home with me after having my content ripped off time and time again when I owned a rakeback directory.

IMO if AP does not get their act together shortly it will be time to call for player and affiliate boycotts. Players are already contacting AP's advertising venues with what is going on. AP just gets deeper and deeper.

[GaryWatson]

Question?

Why does the only AP member "Danielle" (chipleader affiliate manager) answer for them?

Answer

Chipleader was introduced to reduce standard affiliate payments. If caught, they can be replaced.

Chipleader still respond to GPWA and assume accreditation.

No response to fact by chipleader staff has ever been worth reading. Quite litterally they have been scamming all but a select few.

Here's the kicker, if chipleader goes down. The affiliates will lose out and AP will gain. The company just changes names. Same people only they change ownership. Straight out of the blackhat bankrupt scam association.

This was all before this fiasco.

They should be decredited & dumped in the rouges section. They have done worse than any there.

Chipleader is supposed to be a third party but its not. It happens in dodgy small businesses, Once in trouble you change ownership and everything is fine.

[Pinababy69]

Originally Posted by pokeraddict

Pokeraffiliateworld.com

http://www.pokeraffiliateworld.com/f...te-thread.html

That's right, instead of allowing a free discussion for affiliates to give input on where to go from there (like not promoting AP/UB, getting together to push AP into a 3rd party review, pushing AP into a response etc.) Jeremy deletes the entire thread at the request of Absolute Poker. He then even went into his blog and calls out the rest of the community for doubting AP. Although he has promoted poker for many years he does not seem to have any concept of the game or how to read Poker Tracker stats. I guess the other thought is his relationship with AP/UB has gotten in the way with the fact multiple players are running on a 20 trillion to 1 shot streak with about the worst possible preflop stats one can have. If a normal players W$atSD is 50% (its slightly higher) then winning 179 coin tosses in a row is a good comparison. It's probably closer to winning 160 coin tosses in a row. It's still not possible.

Thanks for the link pokeraddict. And for the correction on the analogy. I definitely should have worded it as you did...not how many times it would come up heads, but how many in a row can you win? As you said, whether it's a 160 or 179...it's just not within the realm of possibility. I could sit here right now and flip a coin, and I'd be shocked if I could call it correctly five times in a row, nevermind over 100 times, lol.

On the subject of analogies (but not to derail), I've read some of the ones being posted over at 2+2 and they're quite good. They can also be useful in trying to stress the point of how improbable the stats are, to someone who maybe doesn't understand poker all that well. The best one I've read so far is this (not verbatim folks) - go to a major league baseball game and go up into the stands. Find the most out-of-shape, non-athletic looking guy that you can and invite him to step up to the plate. To make it more interesting, let's say Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez on their best day. The guy proceeds to hit 28 home runs IN A ROW. Out of the park, gone, cleared the fences. It will never happen. This is very similar to what has happened here...poker players who had never even played in the "majors" before stepped up and hit home run after home run....against seasoned veteran pitchers. Thanks to the poster who came up with that one..it's great.

If I get a chance after dinner, I'm gonna check out this Jeremy's site. It will be interesting I'm sure.