
Originally Posted by
Glunn11
Yes, I neglected to mention that I did include the commission on that [the figure for final value was starting value + (end value - starting value) * .9]. I am using the Mersenne Twister RNG and have gotten pretty accurate figures on other casino games, so I'm not too worried about it being too off in that regard.
Running that simulation, I got an average amount wagered per cycle of $2993.85. Wins occurred 1/4 of the time, so the RNG appears to be in order.
-30 / 2993.85 = -0.0100205421
You'd divide this by 4 though, right, since commission is only taken out 1/4 of the time? My program's Expected Value per Cycle and the return formula:
(1/4) * 270 + (3/4) * -100 = -7.5
seem to agree with that notion.
-7.5 / 2993.85 = -0.00250513553
This was done with $10 bets. $25 bets have an average total wagered of around $1200, and $50 bets have an average total wagered of about $600. I can't seem to figure out what exactly that means. Regardless of the bet size, though, the EV per cycle (according to the program) always stays at -$7.50, and the odds of winning stay at 25%.
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