KasinoKing's SlotBeater Strategy

[LaHutti]

I have to disagree on the Chip quiz thing as well.
If the question was "What are the odds, that the SIDE you can't see, on the chip you're holding is green" ? odds would be 1/3 since you have 3 unknown SIDES, and it can only be one of them.
The question was "What are the odds, that you picked the CHIP with one green side" and the odds of that is obviously 1/2, since you only have 2 CHIPS to choose from.

You know my username Enzo ... LOL

You can ignore it, but it won't go away ...lol

[3Dice]

Ok guys,

I'm not giving up yet ..

for those who are good in mathematics .. this may work better ..

Ai = chosing two color chip.
B = showing red.
Aj = chosing one color chip.

P(Ai after B) = P(Ai) * P(B after Ai) / ( P(Ai)*P(B after Ai) + P(Aj)*P(B after Aj) )

P(two color chip after red shown) =

P(choosing two color chip) * P(showing red if two color chip is chosen) / ( P (choosing two color chip) * P(showing red if two color chip is chosen) + P (choosing one color chip) * P(showing red if one color chip is chosen))

= 1/2 * 1/2 / ( 1/2 * 1/2 + 1/2 * 1)

= 1/2 * 1/2 / ( 3/4 )

= 1/2 * 1/2 * 4/3

= 4/12 = 1/3

[LaHutti]

ok Enzo....that's Russian to me, but if by math, I can make 2 coins 3, I'm done gambling, and will learn that, and do it all day

[3Dice]

La hutti.

two coins yes. But I didn't show you a coin. I showed a side. there are 4 sides.
3 you havent seen. 1 of those 3 sides you didn't see is green.

asking if I'm holding the two color chip is the same as asking if the side you didn't see yet is green.

the odds are NOT 1 in 2.

Cheers,

Enzo

[KasinoKing]

Post in haste - repent in leisure. Me that is!

I went for a shave, thought about it, and finally got it.
It's sort of a trick question due to the clever wording - and I fell for it!
(The key being it's past tense).

Before you show the side, the odds of the chip having 1 Green side are 2/4.
After showing it's red, you have removed a 1/1 chance of it being red.
Therefore 2/4 minus 1/1 = 1/3.

There is a 1 in 3 chance of the other side of the picked chip being Green.

Enzo, you are too clever for me!
Sorry for any offense.
KK

[love2winalot]

Hiya. OK, I just tried KK slot method. It failed. I put .25 into the machine, and lost. Then i put in .50 and lost. Then i made the max bet of .75 and lost. I want my $2.25 back. ..............hehehe

Oh, if you say i lost less then that, i am counting on KK not being good at math, and just paying me what i said......

[jod5413]

Great Thread this turned out to be. Thank you, everyone.

However, Enzo, please stop! You are sounding like my mean, old algebra teacher in tenth grade! I kept saying I don't get it, he kept saying you will get it. Nope, never did. Not a good memory, ya know?

[3Dice]

lol jodi, he should have stopped

unless

you were trying to teach your fellow students your way.

(by all means, if not down your alley then don't read on lol - I'll continue for those who want to understand tho - I'd expect the same to be done for me).

KK,

You're getting closer, but no cigar yet. It has nothing to do with clever wording. It has everything to do with events in the past and how their odds are always 1 or 0. We call this conditional probabilities.

From your response I can tell you're getting close to that aha-erlebnis, but your numbers are all off. 2/4 - 1/1 = -2/4. To calculate the probability after you know one side is red you need Bayes' theorem like I did above.

And returning and applying this to your progressive betting strategy do you start to see that yes, 100 unlucky spins is much more unlikely than 50 unlucky spins. But after 50 unlucky spins, your odds to hit 50 more, and so 100 unlucky spins in total are the exact same odds of a new player playing 50 unlucky spins, or you playing them the first time. Upping your bet is totally useless.

Cheers,

Enzo

[brutaldeluxe]

I like the example done with playing cards to illustrate the point.
I spread out a 52 deck of cards and ask you to try and pick out the queen of hearts. So you take a card out and are not allowed to look at it.
I then look through the other 51 cards and show to you that 50 of them are not the queen of hearts. I have 1 card left myself.
So either the card you have is the queen of hearts, or the card I have is the queen of hearts. Which is more likely to be the queen of hearts ?


It becomes confusing when there's only three things to start off with. As soon as you add more possibilities you begin to see more clearly that you should always change your guess to increase your chances of getting it right.


I remember the example with the boxes was done on the Christamas lectures here in the UK before, interesting stuff.

[Jasminebed]

Upping your bet is totally useless.

Cheers,

Enzo

Shhhh Enzo, you manage a casino. Don't be telling players that, or you won't be seeing my recent play on Payola anymore