Silly Bonus of the Month - April

[thelawnet]

Thelawnet, for once I felt sorry for the CS! It's really not that complicated a bonus, though I agree it can be confusing at first and they should do a better job explaining it on their website.

I would go a bit further than saying they need to explain it better. If you do what I did, and what I believe anyone would do, which is to visit the site, click on 'Promotions' and then click the link labelled 'terms and conditions', then it is not possible to understand what the requirements are for the bonus. In particular, it omits to mention the £50 minimum transfer, and does not indicate that you must wager 45x the bonus account as well as the reasonably clear requirement to wager 45x the transferred amount.

Leaving out some vital information is pretty misleading, and there is nothing here to suggest that there are any further terms and conditions relating to promotions that you should read.

I don't particularly have any problem with the way they structure their bonus, it is really up to them, but the bonus, which by my understanding is a marketing tool to encourage people to sign up, is not properly explained on the page which purports to explain it. This is bad practice.

The bonus is pretty weak by the way by the standards of any other casino, but it does have some value, it is just that I feel the way that it is setup and not properly described on the page that is supposed to describe it, is designed to deceive the average person .

You need to wager 45x the deposit amount, at Atlantic City blackjack, which has 0.365% edge. This will cost you £20 on expectation given a £125 deposit and £125 bonus.

You then need to wager the £125 45 times, aiming to make *at least* £175.

Again the wagering will cost you £20, so let's assume that you're effectively dealing with a £105 stake. For a given target it seems that your chance of reaching it is then

£105 / target.

So for instance you would basically have a 50% chance of hitting a £210 target. However, the bonus is £125, so the expected profit is

(target - 125) * 105 * / target

So if you set out to make £200 net, then you need to make £325, which you would do roughly 32% of the time. So the bonus will pay out as follows:

Payout Probability
200 0.32
0 0

In addition, you have to wager that £200 45x on transfer, which will typically devalue the £200 to £167.

This means that the bonus is worth about £53.44. Given that you will typically lose £20 in the real account, the bonus is worth about £33.44 given super-optimal play.

Obviously if you make money in the bonus account, you can go back and win more. This time there are no wagering requirements in the bonus account, although there is on the transfer

You had a 0.32 chance of making it this far, but because there is no wagering requirement, the chance of making it to £325 is better, more like 0.37.

Again the £200 is typically worth £167 after it has been transferred, so for the second transfer you have £167 * .37 * .32 = £19.77

Theoretically this could be repeated to infinity, so you can (loosely) model it with an infinite series with first term £19.77 and common ratio of 0.37, giving a sum of £31

So the bonus is actually worth as much as £64 on expected value, which isn't too bad.

However, they really need to explain things better so that the unsuspecting punter doesn't get taken for a ride.

[Vesuvio]

However, they really need to explain things better so that the unsuspecting punter doesn't get taken for a ride.

I agree with you. When they first changed to a system like this one from their genuinely deceptive previous system I did suggest to them on here that they could at least correct the grammar of their explanation. They never bothered, which doesn't say a lot for a group of casinos, though at the time the actual bonuses were very good.

[dominique]

I made a deposit at BetRoyal, just before the proverbial hit the fan there with their gangsters approach. I was told that bonuses were 'expired' and now that I had deposited I had to roll over 3X my deposit - without a bonus - before considering any withdrawal!

WHAT????

You didn't get a bonus and you had to wager 3x your deposit to withdraw?

Now I have really heard it all.

[KasinoKing]

So the bonus is actually worth as much as £64 on expected value, which isn't too bad.

Well, I found the casinos description of the wagering requirements much simpler to understand that your reckoning! And frankly, I was a little surprised how long it seemed to take you to grasp the T&C's.

But that aside, you say there IS value in this bonus. Briefly, I believe you are saying the following (correct me if I'm wrong!):

You flat bet the bonus on BJ to WR, leaving you with about 80% of it.
You then risk doubling it all up twice on BJ?
If you succeed, you transfer profit to Real Account.
Then you flat bet BJ your profit+deposit x45 with a potential loss of about 20%.

But if you fail in the bonus account, you still have to do 45xWR on your deposit.
Did you take that into your calculations?

Surely, rather than go through all the grief above, you would be better off just depositing £16 without a bonus, double up on 2 hands of BJ, and leave?

Anyway, whichever why you look at it - these bonuses with DOUBLE WR on your bonus/winnings are extremely SILLY!
Whatever you do, don't get a big win in your bonus account - or you'll be playing it off til Christmas!

[thelawnet]

Well, I found the casinos description of the wagering requirements much simpler to understand that your reckoning! And frankly, I was a little surprised how long it seemed to take you to grasp the T&C's.

Well if you read their page here http://www.ukcasinoclub.co.uk/matchplay_terms.asp, I think anyone would struggle to understand what is going on.

But that aside, you say there IS value in this bonus. Briefly, I believe you are saying the following (correct me if I'm wrong!):

You flat bet the bonus on BJ to WR, leaving you with about 80% of it.
You then risk doubling it all up twice on BJ?

That's not strictly true. You want to double up, but not flat betting. The optimal strategy is to aim to reach a given target exactly at the WR. So the more wagering you have left to do, the smaller your wager should be. Near the end if you are not well ahead in your bonus account you should bet big in an effort to reach your target.

Broadly speaking given that the average loss in betting 45x bonus is £20, you will be effectively doubling up £105 (given a £105 bonus). If you doubled up twice, you have a 1/4 chance of making £420, which is £295 in profit. Given that it is their money, then 1/4 of the time you will make £295, 3/4 of the time you will make nothing. So on average you will withdraw £75 from the bonus account of their money.

If you succeed, you transfer profit to Real Account.
Then you flat bet BJ your profit+deposit x45 with a potential loss of about 20%.

But if you fail in the bonus account, you still have to do 45xWR on your deposit.
Did you take that into your calculations?

Yes I did. You will lose £20 on average meeting a 45x WR of £125. £20 is less than the expected profit you will make doubling the bonus account, so it means that given correct strategy, you will make money on average.

Surely, rather than go through all the grief above, you would be better off just depositing £16 without a bonus, double up on 2 hands of BJ, and leave?

Not really mathematically, although it would be more fun. If you do that, since the house has an edge, you will lose money on average - only about 10p, but even so, all play without bonuses at online casinos is negative expectation. As I demonstrated above even given the onerous terms of this bonus, it still has value.

Whatever you do, don't get a big win in your bonus account - or you'll be playing it off til Christmas!

Well it's actually not that bad, as they have autoplay. And in fact the more money you aim for the higher your expected profit.

Even with the WR on transfers it's still worth doing. I'd rather win £2000 in my bonus account and have to wager it thru 45x than have zero in my bonus account.

[KasinoKing]

I'd rather win £2000 in my bonus account and have to wager it thru 45x than have zero in my bonus account.

That's true! Once again, I bow to your superior maths knowledge

I have another question to exercise your grey matter:-
Given that I don't like and don't play Blackjack or Video poker (cos I always lose ), are there any other casino games which you could employ with this bonus to benefit to a similar level?

[elscrabinda]

Not really, the fairly pointless thing of this bonus is that the only way you stand a chance is if you are an out and out bonus abuser.

Casinos really do have to get a bit more imaginative with their promotions. Why on earth a 'recreational' player would want to commit themselves to this level of wagering is beyond me. Those like thelawnet can see the value and are happy to whack it on autoplay but then thats hardly much fun is it!

[thelawnet]

That's true! Once again, I bow to your superior maths knowledge

I have another question to exercise your grey matter:-
Given that I don't like and don't play Blackjack or Video poker (cos I always lose ), are there any other casino games which you could employ with this bonus to benefit to a similar level?

well this bonus is a pretty crappy one really.... If you need a bonus you must be able to find a better one out there.

But anyway, the WR is only 15x if you do not play poker games (video poker, 3 card poker), roulette or blackjack.

If you always lose on video poker or blackjack, I would recommend autoplay ;-).

You could just play slots, which would reduce the WR to 15x.

Personally even if you don't like blackjack I would recommend playing it in the real account in order to minimize your edge. Obviously the different microgaming slots vary in HA. Unfortunately this is not documented anywhere. But on average the HA on slots is about 4%. The HA is not hugely significant as the variance is very large, but on average 15 x 4% means you lose 60% of your money. In practice you will win some, lose some.

A better strategy would be to wager the 45x in the real account first on autoplay blackjack at £1/hand. Even though you don't like blackjack, on average this will be the cheapest way. As mentioned before this, this would cost you around £20

Then, providing I read the T&Cs correctly, you can play in the bonus account on slots and only have a 15x WR. In doing this you should seek a high amount of variance. So look for games that have a high jackpot, and play on a higher coin size (e.g., rather than playing 9 lines x 5 coins at 10p per coin, rather play 1 line, 5 coins at £2; 9 lines x 5 coins x £2 is probably better still). There are two reasons for this:

1. firstly, the WR is only £1875, but if you can play £5 on a line you will often bust much sooner, whereas if you had played 1p/line * 1 coin on Ladies Nite, you're very unlikely to bust. If you bust in £500 80% of the time, then you have saved yourself exposure to £1375 of wagering at 4% edge.

2. secondly, given that it is a sticky bonus, the higher your target the greater your expected value.... In other words, if you aim for £1000, you have basically half the chance of hitting it as you had if you aimed for £500. But since £125 will be deducted from it, then you have a 25% (example probability) chance of making £875, or a 50% chance of making £375.

When you've won a good amount, transfer it to your real account and wager it through on blackjack autoplay at £1/hand, which will cost 16% of your net win on average.

So you can treat this as an average of £20 'tax' (in your real account) to play high-risk, high-return slots with the casino's money, without risking your own money. The advantage of the bonus account is that you can play a high-risk, retire-if-it-succeeds, strategy, without exposing your own money to that same degree of risk (as you normally will with sticky bonuses).

If you hit the jackpot, you can expect to withdraw 84% of it on average by transferring and wagering on blackjack.

So in summary:
1. play low risk with money in real account - seek to lose as little as possible
2. gamble with £125 of their money in bonus account, playing slots and aim for the moon!
3. transfer that £20,000 jackpot out of bonus account, play low risk again.

You could play the bonus account first, I don't think it makes a difference, but remember the strategy is to play high coinage in the bonus account, and go for big jackpots. No 1p/line slots here please! I would try something like 3 x £5 coins on High Five, which would pay out £75,000 jackpot, and is a single-line slot. Basically, you want the slot that has the highest bet per line in order to maximize value. You could play multiline like thunderstruck if you prefer it, but it probably has slightly lower EV due to smaller coin size per line and lower variance.

Let me know if you win big!

[thelawnet]

Not really, the fairly pointless thing of this bonus is that the only way you stand a chance is if you are an out and out bonus abuser.

Casinos really do have to get a bit more imaginative with their promotions. Why on earth a 'recreational' player would want to commit themselves to this level of wagering is beyond me. Those like thelawnet can see the value and are happy to whack it on autoplay but then thats hardly much fun is it!

I don't think I will be depositing here, but if you spend a couple of hours analyzing it, reading two separate terms and conditions, and then tying up your computer for hours on autoplay you do have a chance.

Otherwise?

Forget it.

[KasinoKing]

and then tying up your computer for hours on autoplay you do have a chance.

You don't have to 'tie up' your computer!
Just leave the MG running autoplay in the background while you play a proper bonus at a sensible casino in the foreground!
(Not MG of course - I believe you can't run two at once. Or can you? I've never tried it!)

Thanks for the great advice thelawnet.
I may not try this bonus, but at least now it does not look quite as crap as I first thought.