RTP, Variance and sample sizes explained

[Rusty]

Read this and you may draw a different conclusion.

http://www.dutyofcare.org.au/case.html


Cheers



Dave

I think the distinction to make here is between theoretical RTP and actual RTP.

The theoretical RTP is calculated through total possible combinations (A complete cycle of every reel stop position) and then adding all the winning combinations in accordance with the paytable.

I think you are talking about the actual RTP which is the players actual returns compared to their total stake.

By comparing the actual return to the theoretical return we can decide if the slots is operating within specified parameters - except it is much more complicated than that because sample size, total possible combinations, variance etc need to be taken into account but you get the general idea.

[Rusty]

Will try to answer in the beginning of next week. Statistics and probability theory isnt really a strong field for me and specially explaining it in English.

But what would be more interesting to speculate on is when you have extremely bad runs with a decent sample.

I think that the slots have lets say a RTP of 95%. But are they truly random? For example a BJ game returning 99,65% over a sample of 2 million hands doesnt mean its random, "fair" maybe.
I have my doubts as I have experienced some horrible runs. You know those balance busting streaks when you lose your 300-400xbetsize bankroll with RTPs ranging from 30-50.

Actually had a "nice" streak once on Achilles, ~1700 spins flatbetting 2/spin and losing roughly 1800.

Yes, this the problem.
We can have a slot with a genuine RTP of 95% and indeed it can be truly random yet still unfair if it incorporated dynamic weighting to control the RTP in real time.
In such a case the paytable and assumed variance would be just window dressing even if they corresponded to the Reel maps.

If such a slot existed you may begin play on the slot at 95% and hit a big win.
An Algorithm could then readjust the weighting and reduce the RTP to 93% or any other figure.
You could start the RTP unnaturally low and create the conditions for a winning streak after a losing spell. The RTP could even be over 100% at times and how exciting would that appear to be for the slot junkie?

This algorithm could be complex and undetectable through examining overall RTP and it could be applied to a players account so not on just one slot but across all slots on the platform or across Casinos even.
It would produce a YoYo effect where exceptional winning streaks were followed by exceptional losing streaks.
The variance in each streak would be outside expectation but overall it would balance out.
There would be a theoretical threshold that if not passed would continue from session to session and deposit to cashout.

Of course natural variance in well designed slots will do that job eventually but it could take a long time in a 95% slot given the opportunity of adjusting stake and lines each spin and taking into account the huge difference in bet amounts between customers.
Also one of the advantages of such a system would be to create exciting winning streaks while maintaining control of RTP.

Totally random with whatever RTP you want when you want.
Could it exist? Would it be fair?

[KasinoKing]

Read this and you may draw a different conclusion.

http://www.dutyofcare.org.au/case.html

Cheers

Dave

With a VERY quick glance I think that document refers to physical Fruit Machines (or "pokies"), also described as AWP machines.
They work in a totally different way to "truly random" online slots, which is what this thread is about.

KK

[zap987]

It could very well be about normal slots but the argument they make is quite stupid. Their point seems to be that if 2 people play the same slot, one low roller and one high roller, then there is a possibility that the low roller wins and the high roller loses and the machine ends up paying back less than the set RTP. Somehow they forget that the opposite will happen too.