unbelieveble loosing streak... or ?

[saroyan]

Hi guys, i am new on this forum, but i am playing poker and online casinos (mostly roulette) for a few years already. I am curious what do you think about "real" and "unreal" probablity. What can be considered like a bad loosing strike, and what is already something "else"...?
How about if you 10 times in a row dont hit the second dozen in rouleete ? Its just a bad luck, right ?
And how about 20 times in a row ? Just a very bad luck ?
I have an experience, and before i will name the casino, i am sipmple curious what do yout think. I bet on second dozen {numbers 13, 14...etc..till 24)... and i lost 32 times in a row... :

27 8 0 12 27 32 32 33 34 35 34 27 33 5 33 8 4 11 25 9 36 35 7 9 29 10 1 30 26 29 29 10

I got 0.0000026% probability for such a session.

After this unbelieveble loosing streak there was 2 times second dozen from next 13 spins.... Altogether 2 times from 45 spins...

Its hard to believe, but really math says, that odds for session like that are 0.0000026%... so before i will name a casino (if i know its a well known and truested one), i am curious for your opinion.

Was this only simple a very bad luck, or.. does this numbers are proving something else ? Like not fair RNG ? How about your big or maybe longest loosing streak which you ever noticed ?
I strongly believed that roulette tables at casinos are not like slot machines set up to 97% or 95% return... i thought that casino is going to risk as well. Of course odds are on their side, but anyway... If by your opinion 32 times in a row without second dozen is just a bad luck, make no sense to name the casino. But if math experts says that it is something really out of good manner and normal RNG, i can prove everything from my hands history.

 

[winbig]

I strongly believed that roulette tables at casinos are not like slot machines set up to 97% or 95% return...

I'd love for a casino rep to come here and set the record straight on this.

I found out that the electronic blackjack machines at local 'slots' casinos pay out the same % as slots, and not the expected 98-99% you would expect from a real blackjack game. Even the gaming commission didn't think this was wrong, and turn a blind eye to it, even though you're not getting a "real" game of blackjack. Even though this is an offline example, it's pretty much the same circumstances...and really makes you wonder if you're playing a "slots" version of roulette, or what the deal is...

 

[sparkz]

sometimes it can feel very suspiscious playing, and you are simply set to lose because something was "fixed"

ages ago i remember playing at this 1 casino (a year or 2 ago), i deposited 50 and played blackjack (not live)... not once did i make profit. I was betting 5 a hand, however there were 2 hands i played with just 2 and 3.


all of the 5 hands were a loss, 3 times i had BJ, and guess what he also had?? thus it was push, if i managed to get 3-4 cards 21, he would be showing a 10 as his 1st card and each time his next was an ace... if i got 20, he would push, or have 21/BJ, and if i stood at 17/18, again at most i would get is a push...

the 1 3 bet i places i also lost, but the 2 bet i won (something like i stood on 16 and he bust)...

i never did see how that was random in any way, it played like an empty fruit machine... no chance for me to win...


however also whats weird is at another casino i played at recently, made 1300+, stupidly got that down to 500 with quite a few 100 bets (again on blackjack) but then thought "right sod it, 400 on 1 hand", to my delight it was blackjack i had , got 1000 back, coincidence it happened when i needed it...i think so...

however to this day the 1st situation i never have seen as "a losing streak" or "a bit of bad luck" to me it was just guaranteed losses, because afterall would a live game really give you 3 BJ pushes and 2-4 losses at 21 due to dealer having BJ all in the space of about 12 or so hands?

 

[bakonlin]

Casino cheated

Hi guys, i am new on this forum, but i am playing poker and online casinos (mostly roulette) for a few years already. I am curious what do you think about "real" and "unreal" probablity. What can be considered like a bad loosing strike, and what is already something "else"...?
How about if you 10 times in a row dont hit the second dozen in rouleete ? Its just a bad luck, right ?
And how about 20 times in a row ? Just a very bad luck ?
I have an experience, and before i will name the casino, i am sipmple curious what do yout think. I bet on second dozen {numbers 13, 14...etc..till 24)... and i lost 32 times in a row... :

27 8 0 12 27 32 32 33 34 35 34 27 33 5 33 8 4 11 25 9 36 35 7 9 29 10 1 30 26 29 29 10

I got 0.0000026% probability for such a s

After this unbelieveble loosing streak there was 2 times second dozen from next 13 spins.... Altogether 2 times from 45 spins...

Its hard to believe, but really math says, that odds for session like that are 0.0000026%... so before i will name a casino (if i know its a well known and truested one), i am curious for your opinion.

Was this only simple a very bad luck, or.. does this numbers are proving something else ? Like not fair RNG ? How about your big or maybe longest loosing streak which you ever noticed ?
I strongly believed that roulette tables at casinos are not like slot machines set up to 97% or 95% return... i thought that casino is going to risk as well. Of course odds are on their side, but anyway... If by your opinion 32 times in a row without second dozen is just a bad luck, make no sense to name the casino. But if math experts says that it is something really out of good manner and normal RNG, i can prove everything from my hands history.

you were cheated by the casino.

 

[takethemoney]

you were cheated by the casino.

That's a hell of an assumption if this is a reputable casino. This player might want to ask the casino to send a log of this play and for them to review it, but accusing the casino of outright cheating is a bit of a reach. Anything can and does happen in gambling, even unbelievable losing as can unbelievable winning.

 

[bakonlin]

32 loosing streak on 12 numbers?

That's a hell of an assumption if this is a reputable casino. This player might want to ask the casino to send a log of this play and for them to review it, but accusing the casino of outright cheating is a bit of a reach. Anything can and does happen in gambling, even unbelievable losing as can unbelievable winning.

If betting 3 numbers and the result 32 spins did not hit,I still believe of bad luck.But 12 numbers unhit,I dont believe.

 

[winbig]

What's the table minimum for that casino? If it's cheap enough, I'd run through the exact same scenario again and compare the results to the first session. If they're the same or very close, then I'd be more apt to agree that it's either a rigged game or a seriously flawed RNG.

 

[pmhcfc]

What's the table minimum for that casino? If it's cheap enough, I'd run through the exact same scenario again and compare the results to the first session. If they're the same or very close, then I'd be more apt to agree that it's either a rigged game or a seriously flawed RNG.

Is there a mathmatician in the house? If so, what are the odds of (going into a land based casino), betting 13-24 on not hitting any of those for 32 spins.

 

[Nifty29]

It is possible that this could happen on a live wheel.

Yes, its unlikely, but it isnt impossible. If it happened again within a short space of time, then I would be suspicious....but I dont think you can say the casino is cheating from just one session.

It would interesting if the same player bet on "0" and it came up 4 or 5 times in a row whether they would be here complaining that the software wasnt random.

 

[SteveCut]

You say yourself that there is a 0.0000026% chance of this happening. That doesn't mean that it's impossible. It means that it occasionally will happen. Sorry, but it it just happened to you. You were unlucky.

Without analysis of thousands of results, that's all you can deduce from this.

 

[KasinoKing]

Is there a mathematician in the house? If so, what are the odds of (going into a land based casino), betting 13-24 on not hitting any of those for 32 spins.

I think this is right:
{Edit} Looks like NOT right - removed my brain-fart equations - see Enzo's post below!

I know anything CAN happen in roulette, but that seems extraordinarily unlikely to me!

I think we need to see the actual game logs to verify if the OP has got this totally right.

KK

 

[3Dice]

Hiya guys,

Just chipping in for the maths ..

37 numbers total, 25 of those lose.

chance of hitting one of those 25 : 25/37 = 0.675675
that to the power of 32 = 0.00000356
or once in 280785 spins.

In other words, if 280 players play 1000 spins, one sees it.

If you've been playing roulette for years, then seeing something like this is not unlikely.

Cheers,

Enzo

 

[mannie2009]

sometimes it can feel very suspiscious playing, and you are simply set to lose because something was "fixed"

ages ago i remember playing at this 1 casino (a year or 2 ago), i deposited 50 and played blackjack (not live)... not once did i make profit. I was betting 5 a hand, however there were 2 hands i played with just 2 and 3.


all of the 5 hands were a loss, 3 times i had BJ, and guess what he also had?? thus it was push, if i managed to get 3-4 cards 21, he would be showing a 10 as his 1st card and each time his next was an ace... if i got 20, he would push, or have 21/BJ, and if i stood at 17/18, again at most i would get is a push...

the 1 3 bet i places i also lost, but the 2 bet i won (something like i stood on 16 and he bust)...

i never did see how that was random in any way, it played like an empty fruit machine... no chance for me to win...


however also whats weird is at another casino i played at recently, made 1300+, stupidly got that down to 500 with quite a few 100 bets (again on blackjack) but then thought "right sod it, 400 on 1 hand", to my delight it was blackjack i had , got 1000 back, coincidence it happened when i needed it...i think so...

however to this day the 1st situation i never have seen as "a losing streak" or "a bit of bad luck" to me it was just guaranteed losses, because afterall would a live game really give you 3 BJ pushes and 2-4 losses at 21 due to dealer having BJ all in the space of about 12 or so hands?

Now I used to love playing roulette, and I seriously hope you where not placing bets on that losing streak. Betting on one dozen to come up is crazy.

The most I have seen is around 17 on RNG for sleeping dozens and red/black in a row.

30 ! I can't believe that at all. I really hope you did not lose lots of money.

 

[4 of a kind]

You say yourself that there is a 0.0000026% chance of this happening. That doesn't mean that it's impossible. It means that it occasionally will happen. Sorry, but it it just happened to you. You were unlucky.

Without analysis of thousands of results, that's all you can deduce from this.

This is the same shit everyone was telling the poker players on poker forums that were actually playing against the eventually confirmed rigged team.

Sure anything could happen, but please snap out of it and stop giving credence to wherever he is playing.

Like someone said here, "if something stinks in the basement the whole house smells". Get your ass out of there and never return. You should also mention the casino name so we don't stumble into the same place.

It always amazes me when people doubt where their playing online everyone else stands up for the site. A new rule should be established when it comes to cyberspace. When it's obvious that something just don't look right the casino should be assumed guilty till proven innocent. If someone wants proof that something is wrong with thousands of hands, that person should risk his money playing the required hands needed to prove otherwise.

 

[SteveCut]

You should also mention the casino name so we don't stumble into the same place.

So you want to blacken the name of a casino where a 1:280k chance event was observed to occur? This same chance event that happens at every popular online casino on average one time for every 280k spins/deals. You'd have to avoid stumbling into every popular online casino.

Enzo, how many spin/deal events per day are made at 3Dice? How many times per day/week does does a 1:280k chance event occur?

When it's obvious that something just don't look right the casino should be assumed guilty till proven innocent. If someone wants proof that something is wrong with thousands of hands, that person should risk his money playing the required hands needed to prove otherwise.

It's only your opinion that something "just don't look right." It looks perfectly normal to me. Once in 280k times it will happen. One of the thousands of players available to observe it, has observed it to happen. Where's the problem with that?

I agree that it's not right that players should have to play thousands of hands to prove that something is wrong. I was just stating that nothing suspicious could be deduced logically from the limited information available. Ideally casinos would make available results statistics so that players could check the statistical probability of results.

Oscar Wilde: "Man can believe the impossible, but man can never believe the improbable."

 

[Nifty29]

When it's obvious that something just don't look right the casino should be assumed guilty till proven innocent.

I see what you're getting at, but I dont agree with that statement....reason is that the vast majority of people screaming 'rigged' (and there are some that do it often) are just on a bad losing streak (we've all been there) or they are sore losers. Sorry, but thats a fact. The casinos that these people whine about all the time often feature in the winners screenshots thread....so are these winners just shills for the casinos? Do they have an arrangement? Its a bit like those that believe there is a 'lose' switch for each account which is monitored by a team of paid employees who laugh and have a wonderful time turning it on and off and watching people blow their money. Come on.

As for the roulette thing....Ive seen a lot of similar posts like this where very unlikely outcomes have occurred but they are not impossible. Ive also seen people show where they have had 2 big unlikely hits very close together or the same number coming up xx times in a row...I didnt see anyone shouting 'rigged' then!

There are members here who have played roulette online for years and years and still do.....if it was all rigged, why are they still playing? If their results in the medium to long term were way off base (and good players keep these records) they would have both stopped completely and banded together somewhere to shout 'shenanigans', however I dont see that - all I see is the occasional post where someone lost in a harsh session - and you cant point the finger based on that.

Its like when slot players say ":Ive deposited 4 times this week and my overall payback is 75%". Its normal!. It doesnt mean the slots are 'rigged' (part from the fact they are as a game anyway) or that the casino is cheating. You dont see these people coming back and saying "on my 5th deposit I made all my money back plus 200%" - they only complain or post when they lose.

If there is legitimate proof of a cheating casino or an operator trying to pull a fast one, along with me and lots of other members being on it.....Bryan would be all over it like a cheap suit.

If you have a bad session or couple of sessions, accept it - its part of gambling. If you cant accept it, dont gamble....you're just setting yourself up for more disappointment.

 

[maphesto]

and really makes you wonder if you're playing a "slots" version of roulette, or what the deal is...

Exactly! I am pretty sure that this is close to the truth at some casinos.

I think that red/black betting is really strange at some online casinos. At live casinos I rarely see black streaks for 7-12 spins. At online casinos I have seen it often with a few spins between the streaks.

I am not that fond of red/black betting but sometimes I bet on red when 6 blacks in a row has occured and with the martingale-s**t it still goes to hell.

I really would like to see what the outcome became if 10 000 players bet 1$ each on the same number at same casino, same hour. French roulette.

If it`s correct this will happen(correct me if I`m wrong):

270 of them can log out and have a profit of 35$

But for the fun of it ( ) :

The remaining 9730 will bet 1 dollar on the losing color in the game before.

4734 players will win and they can log out without winning or losing.

Remaining 4996 players now bet 2 dollars on the same color and 2430 players can logout without winning or losing.

Remaining 2566 players have until now lost 4 dollars. They have to bet 4 dollars to even it out. 1248 players can log out without winning or losing.

Remaining 1318 players have to bet 8 dollars to even it.

641 players more are now even and 677 players have lost 16$ each!

They bet 16$ and 329 players are even.

348 players have lost 32$ each!

They bet 32$ and 169 players are even.

179 players have lost 64$ each now and they bet 64$ and 87 players are now even.

Remaining 92 players have noticed that their color hasn`t come for 8 times in a row. It`s under 0.1 %.

How is it possible that I so often notice those 8-12 streaks at online casinos then?

In other words, if 280 players play 1000 spins, one sees it.

That was a really nice way to show us how easily this could happen. Why don`t we say that if 14 players play 20000 spins one sees it? 14 isn`t that much!

 

[bryand]

It's only your opinion that something "just don't look right." It looks perfectly normal to me. Once in 280k times it will happen. One of the thousands of players available to observe it, has observed it to happen. Where's the problem with that?

What IF a certain casino's RNG was true, i.e. equal distribution after 1 million spins, but was configured to distribute numbers irregularly in the short run?

And while I'm on conspiracy theories ...

What if poker rooms did basically the same thing in order to increase table betting thus increasing rake? (This has already been alleged against FullTilt in a court case.)

 

[Tengil]

Someone correct me if Im wrong, but a quick estimate gave about 4,5 SD loss. So definitely name at least the software. That rare losses can happen but worth to "investigate".

If its AST its not even worth checking as that software is non-random.

 

[zippedup]

Someone earlier said it earlier in the posts. Anything can happen and it will.

If it were not for the long losing streaks there would be no long winning streaks. If the casino is listed as reputable I would pin it on just a bad luck day. If it's black listed I would suspect cheating.

 

[love2winalot]

Hiya: Here is my 10+ years of expierience in Roulette. The most i ever saw 1 dozen not hit in a row was, "25". This was in a real casino here in Vegas. The most i ever heard anyone say they saw in a row, "until now", was 30.

From my point of view, imhop, it should not matter. If you are going to make a set bet, ie bet the same thing over n over again, you either bet at the begining, or at the end. In both cases, you stop betting after a certain amount of losses in a row.

Bet at Begining: Bet a dozen 3-4 times in a row. It should have hit at least once. If it did not, STOP, until it does. Then bet it 3-4 times in a row again, and so on.

Bet at End: Wait for a dozen to go 20+ in row without hitting. Bet it 4-5 times. If it did not hit, then STOP. You lost a little money, and the game did something you had never seen it do before. This is as good as way as any to lose, since you have to lose sometimes.

The facts are, If you betting something, and that bet selection is not hitting, and it has gone outside what the odds of the game says it should have, then why keep betting on it? Next time you log in, that bet might hit 10 times in a row? It would be kind of nice to have somes money left to play with if it did.........

 

[RandomEvent]

I'm still a beginner when it comes to casinos. Having played on the 'live' playtech casino for the past few months, I've always been betting on red/black outcomes.

From time-to-time I've seen lengthy spells of the same colour winning on consecutive spins (in the region of 10-13 spins in a row). It always amazes me how such a run happens, but I guess any sequence of outcomes are possible, though they may seem unrealistic or highly unlikely to the average player. On the live casino I use, it is pretty much a given that after 8-9 spins of the same outcome like red/black, someone is going to hurl abuse in the chat screen at the unfortunate dealer in view.

I think that if the OP's comments relate to an offline or online 'live' game, I myself would be somewhat surprised at such an event he has described, but appreciate that it is possible. If it were an online computer version of the game (non-live, sorry forgot the term used), then I would not be surprised.

For me, I just don't trust the non-live casino games and do hold a biased view against them. The only thing I like about such games is that the turnover of gameplay tends to be much faster.

 

[ksb11]

When someone is a roulette apologist they say, 'the law of average says' or 'the odds are', when somebody is a roulette critic they say 'every spin is totally different. The truth is that both are true.

First, u have to have confidence the casino is reputable, if it is not then don't play there. EVER!

Second, I play roulette a lot and have seen the craziest things happen in casinos i consistently bring fat payouts in from. I have been mugged from the weirdest sequences of #'s coming up, such as a 13-24 not coming up 30 or so times. It rarely happens, but it does happen. I have also missed on 15 consecutive spins, and then on spin 16 hit a $3000 miracle land. It really comes down to being confident in the casino u play at.