Variance Discussion (Split from "New Game at 3Dice" Thread)

[silcnlayc]

Rob: Just telling you what Enzo and the other casino owners/managers can do to make the high variance games work in your favor Silc, not that they would but it is as simple as that...

Hmmm...they can just make it "pop" for us players would have been simpler, no?

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[Nifty29]

If one doesnt understand the basics of variance, then it needs to be explained in a simpler way. It seems that some posters are almost 'attacking' (for want of a better word) those who are really are trying to help them understand their slot experiences, and that is rather unfortunate. It is really difficult to patient and helpful when we have questions asked where the answer has already been dismissed as nonsense (a little like asking "why do the tides change all the time and bigger some days and smaller on others...and I DONT want to hear anything about the Moon!!")

Here is my simple understanding of variance over 5 sessions of 100 x $1 spins on a 95% game:

LOW VARIANCE:

Session 1 = Start $100 End $ 93 LOSS $7
Session 2 = Start $93 End $ 80 LOSS $13
Session 3 = Start $80 End $ 89 WIN $9
Session 4 = Start $89 End $ 92 WIN $3
Session 5 = Start $92 End $ 95 WIN $3
TOTAL LOSS = $5

HIGH VARIANCE

Session 1 = Start $100 End $ 75 LOSS $25
Session 2 = Start $75 End $ 55 LOSS $20
Session 3 = Start $55 End $ 15 LOSS $40
Session 4 = Start $15 End $ 110 WIN $95
Session 5 = Start $110 End $ 95 LOSS $15
TOTAL LOSS = $5

I know the maths guys are going to be all over me on this, but its just an indication of that a player might expect when playing the different variance games. In other words, the higher the variance the bigger the swings of the win/loss 'pendulum'.

However, in the end the RTP remains the same...its just that with high variance you get bigger wins less often, and with low variance you get smaller wins more often

The other thing that some are alluding to is what combinations 'should' pay...only angle I can see from this question is that in the higher variance games there tends to be one or two symbols that pay huge and all the others are very low (even for 5oAK) and in low variance the pays are spread out much more evenly across the symbols, so you can usually get a reasonable return for any 5OAK.

Just my understanding, and I will be happily corrected

The only other question I have is that IF someone 'in the know' came out today and said 'yup its all rigged and the RTP is all rubbish and it doesnt matter where u play its all the same' - would you stop playing at online casinos right then and there?? (now be honest!) All I know is sometimes I win and sometimes I lose, and factors like bankroll management and limiting bonus use to only EV+ can make all the difference between tears and smiles.

[Jasminebed]

I never see anyone posting about how games are rigged and about variance when they catch the good end of the stick. Those end up in the winner's screenshots.

I just came back from a B&M Trip. Really did have a lovely time, but I could have went to a week all-inclusive in Cuba for about the same money. And my payback was terrible!!! I know from the cashback accumulated just how much I started with, and just how many dollars I spent gambling. I'm also quite sure the paybacks are lower than online, but I get better comps overall. Lionel Ritchie was good, but he was kind of a K-Tel version of Lionel Ritchie's greatest hits. Due to poor luck, we spent a lot of time in the room drinking and talking, not so bad at all.

I had a good run for a bit. I posted in the 1000x screenshots twice in a single day and that has kept me playing for months, both online and at the B&Ms, plus a few goodies in my life. It might be the very first year gambling I am overall ahead (but I think I may have been in 1984/85 while pregnant). I certainly don't expect that I will be next year.

When loyalty counts, or when playing to meet a WR on a bonus after a decent hit, low variance games can help you meet that goal. I deposited $10 yesterday to complete the feature on Scrooge after losing $50 on it, to win $38. Low variance games can be a steady little earner if they are hitting, but you are never gonna see those 1000x hits. And even if you hit 1000x on a 9 cent play, it's only 90 dollars. I look at how fast $20 dollar bills went on penny, nickle and two cent machines my last few visits to Rama, and online looks pretty good.

It's fun to hit features. Some features are more fun to play than others IMO. Some high variance games hardly have any decent paylines without hitting a feature. Lower variance ones have okay hits for line wins often.

Even lower variance can suck you dry. Frankly, all of them are designed to suck us dry in the long haul. High variance, the haul is usually shorter.

Pick a three reel slot with mixed bars, a 400 coin jackpot and no wild multiplier for low variance. Pick a feature that hits for 6 or 10x pay on a game where you don't often hit feature, or even a decent line win in the game for higher variance. Any game with stacked wilds is going to be high variance also.

I find mixing my play between the two gives me the most entertainment for my dollar.

Of course, I am not in this for the money. Thirty years plus of gambling has told me what thrill we get from gambling is not from the money. Mind you, money is pretty thrilling when we do hit, provided we don't spend ALL of it back.

If you had a slot that paid back $1.01 cent every time you played $1, not on average, but every time, and all you could make in an hour of play was 60 cents, most people would not play it. No element of surprise, no anticipation, and not even minimum wage. It would be like a factory job pushing a button at far less than minimum wage.

[Simmo!]

...the higher the variance the bigger the swings of the win/loss 'pendulum'.

That's quite a neat way of putting it

[KasinoKing]

I never see anyone posting about how games are rigged and about variance when they catch the good end of the stick. Those end up in the winner's screenshots.

That is absolutely spot on!

Look what happened to me playing a Ladbrokes promo this week:-

Santa1.JPG

No free-spins in 190 goes when they should hit once every 167 pulls - it must be rigged!

And the day before:-

Santa2.JPG

FOUR lots of free spins in my first 111 goes when they are only supposed to hit ONCE in 167 spins - it must be rigged!

KK

[Scooter7]

That is absolutely spot on!

Look what happened to me playing a Ladbrokes promo this week:-

Santa1.JPG

No free-spins in 190 goes when they should hit once every 167 pulls - it must be rigged!

And the day before:-

Santa2.JPG

FOUR lots of free spins in my first 111 goes when they are only supposed to hit ONCE in 167 spins - it must be rigged!

KK

Thanks for posting opposite ends of the spectrum examples here. I'm just about fed up with the attitude of people who have a bad session and are completely convinced (not by logic, but by their own selective memories) that casino 'x' is rigged.

Today's posts include mention of new games from more than one software provider, yet the vast majority of posts today have nothing to do with discussing the gameplay, features, and artwork on those new games.

Has anyone downloaded the upgrade from InterCasino to try Superman (along with four other new slots, three types of Sic-Bo, Double Double Bonus VP, and Perfect Pairs Blackjack)?

Has anyone played Coral Clams at 3 Dice (other than the people that were responsible for Simmo needing to split off the off-topic posts into yet another variance-related topic)?

Let's get some screen shots of the new games and a healthy discussion of features and rules from them. Is 'Clams' worth it for me to open an account at 3Dice? Is Superman (or Braveheart or Forrest Gump) worth the attention of players that may be on the fence about playing at InterCasino?

Let's get something a little more positive and constructive going here.

[silcnlayc]

Variance. It’s a word that experienced slot players bandy about a lot, but one that many players may not have heard, or don’t understand. Loosly speaking, variance is a gambling term for “risk”. It’s not quite as straight forward as that, as that might simply imply one game’s house-edge was significantly lower or higher than another, when in fact a high variance slot can have better odds of winning than a low variance slot, or indeed vice versa. And variance doesn’t just apply to slots - it can be applied to any game: video poker, even variations of Blackjack have different variances.
Essentially, variance is a term that is used to describe a combination of things: the chances of winning big, the streaks within a game and the impact they are likely to have on a players bankroll. There are 3 categories of variance: low, medium and high, although you could add low/medium and medium/high if you want to start getting intricate. Let’s explain the 3 levels and how they might suit you as a player:

Low Variance

A low variance game will typically pay out reasonable wins fairly often. You’ll rarely get a “major” win, but you will find that a bankroll lasts longer. A low-variance player will generally be looking for a smaller profit from his/her session, but will be expecting a longer period of entertainment. Low Variance Slot Reviews »

High Variance

High variance games generally require a larger bankroll to sustain a session for “entertainment”, but can yield higher payouts on an infrequent basis, along with irregular small and medium wins during the passage of play. A high variance player will be looking for one or two “big wins” before cashing out which could happen very quickly, or not at all! High Variance Slot Reviews »

Determining Variance

Typically, a high variance game can be identified using the paytable: in slots terms, high payouts for the 4/5 of a kinds and almost negligible payouts for the 2/3 of a kind. A “free spins” bonus with 15+ spins and 3x or more multiplier also starts to push towards that territory, although the number of lines come into play. A 9-line slot with those figures is likely to be medium, or medium/high variance. Look at these Isis shots,a Microgaming slot available at [King Neptunes] (USA), for a good example of a high variance paytable:





You’ll see that 5 scatters pays out 600x the total bet, which is huge, while 5 wilds pays 10,000 coins and the free spins give 20, 25 or 30 spins at a whopping 6x! That’s much more than many other slots, but when you look at the payouts for the smaller symbols, although some of the 5-of-a-kinds are good sized payouts, there is a huge gap between those and 4 of a kind and the payouts for 9,10,J,Q,K and A are pretty low all-round. That gap, along with the free spins number/multiplier is a sure indication of a high variance slot.

A Quick Word On Video Poker

Variance isn’t just confined to slots, it can crop up in variations on pretty much any game. Slots aside, the other notable game where variance plays a big roll is Video Poker. “Wild Card” and “Bonus” video poker games tend to have a higher variance than your standard “Jacks Or Better” style game. This is more easily spotted by some bigger payouts at the top end of the paytable, and an 8/5 (Full House/Flush) or worse return at the bottom. In fact if you see the game pays less that 45 coins (when betting 5 coins per hand) for a Full House, and/or less than 30 coins for a Flush, you know that the variance is higher than normal. Most higher variance Video Poker games will also pay the same for two pairs as a pair of Jacks (or better). To counter this you’ll see some of them have a higher expected return, but you’ll need a bigger bankroll to achieve that. Video Poker Expected Return Charts.

Conclusion

If you are low roller looking for entertainment, nice if you can make a small profit from time to time, then go low variance. If you have some reasonable cash to burn, are happy to risk some time playing against the possibility of something decent, then go medium variance. If you like a risk, have a good bankroll behind you and aim high…well it should be obvious! And good luck. I tend to sit between medium and high variance myself. I like the adrenaline rushes!

Copied from here: http://www.onlinecasinoslotmachines....slot-variance/

Been trying to wrap my head around this...I told you guys a lot of of just don't "get it"...

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[Wildfire7]

The player also has his own kind of variance he can use against the casino.
In the example on the 600 reasons thread, there is absolutely no player variance. Every spin is the same value, the same amount of lines, and the same game. The net result appears to be the same outcome.

I am sure some players convince themselves there is some kind of chaos theory that goes on when playing slots. In that at some point an RNG must deliver an expected outcome over any given session.

Chasing bonus rounds and the so called big ones is never a good idea, anytime I have had a big hit it has usually been within the first 50 spins. For my money playing 12 different slots for 50 spins each is better than ploughing the bankroll into 1 slot for 600 spins. Varying the play, mixing things up a bit, and usually, sooner or later the variance can go your way.

One final comment I would make is that if a new poster comes on and posts about a bad result and says something is rigged, then it is generally dismissed and advice is summarily given on variance. However if you are a more senior member of this forum then you get a lot more followers to back the theory that games are rigged. One reason for this phenomenon is perhaps people feel safe clinging onto a fellow senior members theory, in the hope it explains their own losses and a pity party can gather momentum.

Mike