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Thread: i know variance, but this really got me

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    Takkaone is offline Newbie member
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    i know variance, but this really got me

    Hi! Well, i donīt have anyone, interested in gambling, so i decided, to tell you my last evening, jumping sky-high and falling into a bit of misery... ;-)

    A bit bored, i deposited 50 euro at a microgaming-casino, and started playing "Supe It Up" for the first time. As always, when first play a slot, i made notes about how many spins i would need, to hit freespins.

    I started playing 2cent per line, and was very surprised, to get 20 freespins (they are 6x multiplier at this slot) twice in my first hundred spins, counting the first freespins in...... And they hit very nice, so started upping my bets, and everytime the freespins came again after a short time.

    In the first 700 spins, i got 160 freespins with this nice 6x multiplier, and vent from 50 euro to over 900. And from 2cent per line up to 20c per line. I really was thinking, it would go this way the whole night somehow. I got caught in how hot the slot was running, and there was the huge downfall for me (i know, i am an idiot)...

    After this hot run, the slot vent 600 spins without hitting the freespins once!!! But i did not want to accept it and cash out. Everytime i saw one scatter-symbol, i told myself, the other two are right around the corner.
    As fast, as i had upped my bet, as slow i lowered it, "knowing" that in a few spins it will get hot again.....very clever...

    Well long story short, i went broke through those 600 spins without feature, because i could not leave a slot, which i loved so much after the first 700 spins.

    So, to stop boring you: I donīt play very much, and never experienced this kind of variance. The first 700 spins (including 160freespins) and then 600 with NOTHING. What are your worst experiences with this bitch of variance?

    And, equally important, how do you get yourself up from the computer with nice winnings withdrawn, instead of playing till the account is empty??

  2. #2
    AudiManinBoro's Avatar
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    Its easy. There is a cash out button.

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    This is just normal behavior for these slots, as you mention yourself, its high variance, they pay alot in a short time, then they go into munchmode again.
    Next time, cash out half of your winnings if your up a nice amount, and play on with the rest.(at not so high stakes)
    I never play one slotgame too long, as soon as I see its getting icecold, I move on to another one.
    Or try to set a goal, 10x deposit is cashout.

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    Cash out right after meeting the WR, because then all the available balance is turned into cash. By redepositing some of the withdrawn amount a higher balance is available for playing. Sounds logical, but requires some selfdiscipline.

    Cheers Balky

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    Quote Originally Posted by Balky View Post
    Cash out right after meeting the WR, because then all the available balance is turned into cash. By redepositing some of the withdrawn amount a higher balance is available for playing. Sounds logical, but requires some self-discipline.

    Cheers Balky
    Could not have said it better myself!

    Quote Originally Posted by Takkaone View Post
    Well long story short, i went broke through those 600 spins without feature, because i could not leave a slot, which i loved so much after the first 700 spins.
    The odds of getting the free-spins on Supe It Up are 1 in 152.46 spins.

    Sounds like you got them 8 times in 700 spins = well above the average of just under 5 times.
    Then 0 times in 600 spins = well below the average of 4 times.
    But overall you got the free-spins 8 times in 1300 spins = pretty much bang on the average.

    That's variance for you!

    KK
    Smile, it may never happen...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balky View Post
    Cash out right after meeting the WR, because then all the available balance is turned into cash. By redepositing some of the withdrawn amount a higher balance is available for playing. Sounds logical, but requires some selfdiscipline.

    Cheers Balky
    That good old selfdiscipline; a skill thats never ending to perfect. I know Im still trying to

    Cheers,
    Cindy

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    Takkaone is offline Newbie member
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    yeah, of course you are all correct, cash out after meeting the WR, and then deposit lower or maybe try another casinobonus... but are you allways this logical, while you are gambling?

    @kasinoking: those numbers, where can i get them from? would be a nice help, to choose the right slot, for what i want at the moment i start playing. like looking for those high-variance bigpay things when i want action, and playing something smooth to kill time, or end some wagering requirements....

    and to get those "idiot-gambler-thinking" out of my head. like this machine is hot right now or those things.
    Last edited by Takkaone; 4th December 2009 at 06:27 PM. Reason: typo

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    All very good advice. I have encountered these almost dramatic change in fortunes during a session. As an example I have seen Spring Break retrigger 5 times during the free spins, then you get those nights where you cant hit even 2 scatters. This is partly what makes it so exciting!

    The best way I have found to tackle these kind of swings is to make smaller withdrawals as you are winning, rather than waiting till the end of the session in an attempt to make 1 large withdrawal.

    Also after a streak like you have experienced I would be getting out of that slot completely and leave it alone until another session. So rather than waiting for that long losing streak to arrive, get out early and try another game.

    Always bear in mind no matter how much you are up, it is your money now, not the casinos, so keep those bets in proportion with the bankroll, and try and remember that target figure you had in your mind at the start of the session what you would have settled for. Because when you are up loads, the only thing thats really changed is your adrenaline levels.

    Mike

  12. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by AudiManinBoro View Post
    Its easy. There is a cash out button.
    ROFLMA, I'm glad your cashout button is easy! Perhaps mine migrated south with the geese.

    Seriously, it's good advice, but not always easy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Takkaone View Post
    Hi! Well, i donīt have anyone, interested in gambling, so i decided, to tell you my last evening, jumping sky-high and falling into a bit of misery... ;-)

    A bit bored, i deposited 50 euro at a microgaming-casino, and started playing "Supe It Up" for the first time. As always, when first play a slot, i made notes about how many spins i would need, to hit freespins.
    Alone and bored put you at risk for not playing as smartly as possible. But it is a good a reason as any to play, to entertain ourselves. The highs and lows of gambling is part of why us slot players play, maybe even the only part. I certainly trust that 50 was money you were prepared to lose. Prepared, but hoping to win. Hopeful is a very positive mental state. Expecting to win is delusional

    Quote Originally Posted by Takkaone View Post
    I started playing 2cent per line, and was very surprised, to get 20 freespins (they are 6x multiplier at this slot) twice in my first hundred spins, counting the first freespins in...... And they hit very nice, so started upping my bets, and everytime the freespins came again after a short time.
    Seems like a really reasonable betsize for your bankroll. Varying your betsize increases your variation, but as I said, it's good to be hopeful. That means full of hope, not full of expectation.

    The element of "surprise" is a very powerful motivator. Rats will ingest more cocaine and press a lever more often for periodic reinforcement than constant reinforcement.

    I've said a few times, it's worse when I'm winning. Poker, this is called "TILT".

    Quote Originally Posted by Takkaone View Post
    In the first 700 spins, i got 160 freespins with this nice 6x multiplier, and vent from 50 euro to over 900. And from 2cent per line up to 20c per line. I really was thinking, it would go this way the whole night somehow. I got caught in how hot the slot was running, and there was the huge downfall for me (i know, i am an idiot)...
    You lucky SOB. That slot only steals from me. You say you know variance. Kasino King's site http://www.slotbeaters.com/ lays out a few MG reels, but not Supe It Up. But you have to know for any slot with 20 spins @6x, and payouts to boot, not dead rounds, you beat the variance by a long shot. Much as I believe you can't lose all the time, I believe the converse, you can't win all the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Takkaone View Post
    After this hot run, the slot vent 600 spins without hitting the freespins once!!! But i did not want to accept it and cash out. Everytime i saw one scatter-symbol, i told myself, the other two are right around the corner.
    As fast, as i had upped my bet, as slow i lowered it, "knowing" that in a few spins it will get hot again.....very clever...
    OMG why are you gambling when you could be running a psychic hotline to make money

    Please forgive me if I sound like I am picking on you. I never "know" I am going to win, but I am very hopeful. Sounds like you have some insight into your behaviour, and knowledge is power.

    I've been gambling for over 30 years, and I've made most mistakes. I try not to make the same ones over and over

    Quote Originally Posted by Takkaone View Post
    Well long story short, i went broke through those 600 spins without feature, because i could not leave a slot, which i loved so much after the first 700 spins.
    Well, Mega Moolah does me in for the love of the slot thing. I have no expectation and minimal hope for the MegaMillions, but I am overly hopeful for the freespins and way to hopeful for the $10 or $100 win on the Minor or Mini jackpot.

    Quote Originally Posted by Takkaone View Post
    So, to stop boring you: I donīt play very much, and never experienced this kind of variance. The first 700 spins (including 160freespins) and then 600 with NOTHING. What are your worst experiences with this bitch of variance?
    I was not bored. I`ve played a lot. Years B&M`s, more recently online. I don`t track stats really closely, since MILLIONs of spins, not hundreds or thousands, or even tens of thousands determine payback percentages and variance.

    The five line The High Life at MG is not a high variance slot Bonus hits for 10 spins at 2X pay. When I first started playing MG, I went 2000 spins without a feature. When I did hit it, it paid about 6X bet.

    I`ve did better since.

    Quote Originally Posted by Takkaone View Post
    And, equally important, how do you get yourself up from the computer with nice winnings withdrawn, instead of playing till the account is empty??
    Quote Originally Posted by De Beuker View Post
    This is just normal behavior for these slots, as you mention yourself, its high variance, they pay alot in a short time, then they go into munchmode again.
    Next time, cash out half of your winnings if your up a nice amount, and play on with the rest.(at not so high stakes)
    I never play one slotgame too long, as soon as I see its getting icecold, I move on to another one.
    Or try to set a goal, 10x depositis cashout.
    This is truly excellent advice from De Beuker. I lost the cashout button for a period recently after a big win. I believe he offered me the same advice recently.

    To quote my late brother `Take my my advice I`m not using it`

    I`d actually kind of forgotten that you can withdraw part, but not all of your winnings.

    700 winning spins and 600 losing spins can go by quite quicky.

    De Beuker`s advice to set a goal is excellent advice. Your goals may vary from mine, or another players.

    On a 50 euro deposit, you might consider cashing 250 at 350, leaving yourself twice your deposit for further gambling. It`s late, you`re alone, you are bored, and you want to play for a certain length of time.

    Whatever goals you have, try to stick by them. Your goals may reflect your needs from the gambling experience, not all players have the same goals.

    You mentioned that you were over 900 ahead. I can`t tell you how many times I`ve chased that 1000 ahead point and busted. But I`m getting a little smarter over time, and partly due to helpful reminders from other players. Cashing out when you get 10x a 50 deposit sounds great, especially when it leaves you some to still play with to be entertained and to be hopeful.

    Enzo at 3Dice recently said part of how they determine the `variabilty` of a slot is the number of spins a player might expect with a 50 deposit and a 500 cashout goal.

    I try not to beat myself up too badly over past mistakes. You lost 50 you risked, had highs and lows and a more entertaining evening that TV affords. Oftimes we are not that entertained.

    Hope you understand that we here at CM are trying to be helpful, not critical. It`s helpful for me to remind myself from time to time of my goals.

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    Sorry, a couple of posts whilst I was composing.

    OP did not indicate he took a bonus of any kind. One of the reasons I do take a good bonus is to have a cashout goal in mind. I do better with that tough goal in mind other than less tangible ones.

    I find it helpful to regard online gambling in a similar light to B&M gambling. Cash out and move on. I don`t always cashout, and I sometimes throw another 20 in, but I do try to not exceed my goals by too much.

    Whether you continue to play the same slot or a different slot or a different casino, the longer we gamble the more we lose. When we gamble at higher stakes, we lose faster.

    Not always, and that`s what keeps us coming back.

    Really helpful advice to me came from other players to buy something concrete when you do cashout. Helps makes you feel better if you have something to show for all the money you spent and could have bought that stuff otherwise

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