I believe he said he was addicted ... But this is relative to how much money you have to gamble with, and if your trying to prove something if only to yourself.
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I believe he said he was addicted ... But this is relative to how much money you have to gamble with, and if your trying to prove something if only to yourself.
I have analyzed thousands of hands of BJ over many sessions at many Casinos. I've discovered that 'Random' doesn't mean anything as an attribute of any Casino's RNG; not to the player. The RNG is random.
This particular effect has been observed by many players, both professional and beginners. It is the first thing I discovered about Online BJ. I have graphed the patterns of many sessions of BJ and the Bet size skew effect does exist. But the 'Skew Trigger' .. .. is also Random. This is why the now infamous Cypher would keep his head very low and attempt to sneak up on the bet size skew trigger when it wasn't looking. This technique is volatile, but a logical approach. It is not the system I use.
All of these tests done by Firms that specialize in testing a Casino's payout and randomness are meaningless. They do not test the wager size effect and even if they did there are many strategies of varying the bet size. Real money would have to be used and the Casino could not know which player was running the test, an unlikely scenario. In any case it can be almost invisible. Countless graphs confirm the anomaly in statistical data, only visible as a small but consistent abnormality in the pattern of a vastly larger set of data.
The one question I keep asking myself, is it cheating or is it a 'protection system' that must be implemented, and could it be a little of both. If you went into a B&M with your laptop you would never get even as far as the chair and not because you might only be Counting cards. A mathematician knows that card counting is only one way of calculating a probability advantage of the outcome of the next hand; typically about 1% over the house edge in the long run.
You can play online BJ and win, I've proven that to. So that is to say some players will fall more to the worst end of this wager size 'Skew Trigger' than others. Its weighted as mentioned before. So high rollers will fall prey to it to a greater degree. You have to use a different system if you low roll with varying bet size.
I once thought I might be imagining things myself. Every player starts that way and maybe posts a complaint about it here, and is generally dismissed as "seeing things" that aren't there. Mathematics is a powerful tool so I went about to see if I was seeing things too and I discovered I wasn't. And then I learned something more...............
Kenny Lingus (20th December 2007), NASHVEGAS (20th December 2007)
I do not see anything unusual here. If you could force the payout% to be
anything BUT 95% on a MG slot, then I would be surprised. Even if you could forceit to be lower - like 90%.
The payout% will converge to 95% in the long run, no matter if you are
starting at 200% payout or 50% payout after 10K spins. After 10M spins you will be damn close to 95%, or whatever the slot is set to. And your results also showed this.
The idea that the software is rigged when playing for high bets is
interesting and would be very hard to prove, but I am not saying I believe in it though. The only time I have bet high was at Playtech BJ. Playing 100$ or 200$/bet and losing 6 times in a row (highest BJ bet I have ever won was 10 euro), so I understand why people get these ideas. But some high-rollers bet this stake all the time and of course they would quickly notice something this rigged.
Again it is not the RNG that is rigged, the RNG never knows what game or what stake it is generating a result from. Any cheating must be done from within the software (ie. asking the RNG for another result).
You really miss the point Zoozie. 95% is the global yes, and my theory is the casino will give you this. Skewing
the payout is internally between the games. Meaning I know I will get 95%. However, if I manage to loose crazy in
one game (low %) then follow up wagering another game, that will pay much better (high %). This should NOT happend,
however in MG it does. Overall you end with 95%, true, and how convinient.
There is a huge difference in what I now wrote, and what I believe you thought I ment. I would think you have 1 chance
in each casino to get out ahead of your bankroll, the first big win. After this the mechanics of the MG will ensure you
never get above 100% again. Howver, it will also make sure you nevet go below 75% whatever you wager (max bets $250).
You should try it. Also when having below 80% overall payout, pick a slot - get ready for monster win! Try it, I dare you!
When you do this, you really sit back in your chair and think... What is going on? Obvious I say!
Thanks for noting this. Low wagering I never complained about, you even get great payouts here at times. What I'm always
having problems with is when increasing the bet. Doing $20 spins, $40 spins and such. This is where things start to
happend. To me it seems that if you "won enough" the system will give you a dry spell, which statistically is more than
normal - howeverit's not normal that you always get it in a certain scenario.
Other high roller-spinners like me who have wasted +5k also seem to have the same opinion. Doing cheap ass spins doesn't
really count in this argument, you need high spins. Again, thanks for piointing out this.
Atleast someone is paying attention,And the part about proving, trying to prove you are correct that im the crazy one,
however I find myself again and again seing the suck after 2 good wins. So I should stop trying convince myself it's
possible to win after 2 wins, it isn't. Iv'e lost to much on this "point" already, it's rigged to suck you dry on high
wagers!
Give Vodka to a drunk, will he drink it?
Thanks for this, maby it's extra funny in Simpsons because it's so typical human behaviour when it comes
to addictions. Let that be sex, drugs, gambling and so on. But you are right indeed, I have burned myeself
a few times that's for sure!
If it only that simple, why don't you just stop smoking? Same thing really. Quiting doesn't solve the problem, it only eases
it, tli next time I go for Guthenburg Casino and go totally bananas since I havn't played in a while,Daily limits is
the key, this forces me to low wagering. (is the keu I said, shall BE the key that is,)
Personally Kimss...
#1) The title of this thread, considering all your "flip flop" attitides is completely uncalled for. (first your angry you lose so much, admit you have a gambling problem, but when 3dice throws you a Nice bonus its ok again.. until you lose that too!)
#2) Apparently, every casino BJ is rigged (according to your opinion) which of course you are entitled to
#3) I don't care if your a "High Roller" or "one of us low rollers" ... that statement was another disrespectful comment to alot of CM members.
I think you need to follow this link.. http://www.casinomeister.com/quit_gambling.php If not.. don't complain about your losses. If you don't know when to quit when your ahead.. then don't assume everyone is out to "cheat" you. Or that 3Dice or any other online casino is "rigged" or how did you put itAnd, these insults to CM members are uncalled for...Oh my GOD! God d#mn cheaters!
It is obvious for me you still live in a dissilution that online BJ game behaves like a real shuffled card of decks. Are you on medication theese days, or problem seeing the hands? Maby you dont't have played blackjack, and if you cant with a real carddeck.you people who still live in your bubbles, you should really think about!Believe you me it doesnt sound like you understand me at all. Seems to me you are still fighting the original argument - do casinoes cheat. And then comes your retorical questions for dummies.You have a pretty serious problem (and quite possibly a split personality!) IMHO to make this remarkOther high roller-spinners like me who have wasted +5k also seem to have the same opinion. Doing cheap ass spins doesn't
really count in this argument, you need high spins.Try taking a small portion of your "online gambling budget" (say 1/1000 of it) and go to a location that does "toys for tots" and Give a little. Or walk into a store and look for the mom who has tears in her eyes looking at the prices of the toys she knows she can not afford!! and Hand her the money! I bet the gratitude you get would be well worth it!! But don't assume that "low rollers" are "losers" .. I am happy to cash out a few hundred at 3dice here and there when it does happen... No they are not Perfect, but we couldn't ask for better treatment by any casino staff! (I assume since you gave the link to the website you were "endorsing 3dice??"... umm probably not cause you lost the bonus after that.)So don't come telling me it's random when same scenario happends again and again. Hearing other players saying the same doesnt make it better, it only adds fuel to the "fact" that this is the way the systems are RIGGED![]()
[QUOTE=mysticjoz;206746]Personally Kimss...
#1) The title of this thread, considering all your "flip flop" attitides is completely uncalled for. (first your angry you lose so much, admit you have a gambling problem, but when 3dice throws you a Nice bonus its ok again.. until you lose that too!)
#2) Apparently, every casino BJ is rigged (according to your opinion) which of course you are entitled to
#3) I don't care if your a "High Roller" or "one of us low rollers" ... that statement was another disrespectful comment to alot of CM members.
I think you need to follow this link.. http://www.casinomeister.com/quit_gambling.php If not.. don't complain about your losses. If you don't know when to quit when your ahead.. then don't assume everyone is out to "cheat" you. Or that 3Dice or any other online casino is "rigged" or how did you put it
And, these insults to CM members are uncalled for...
You have a pretty serious problem (and quite possibly a split personality!) IMHO to make this remark
Try taking a small portion of your "online gambling budget" (say 1/1000 of it) and go to a location that does "toys for tots" and Give a little. Or walk into a store and look for the mom who has tears in her eyes looking at the prices of the toys she knows she can not afford!! and Hand her the money! I bet the gratitude you get would be well worth it!! But don't assume that "low rollers" are "losers" .. I am happy to cash out a few hundred at 3dice here and there when it does happen... No they are not Perfect, but we couldn't ask for better treatment by any casino staff! (I assume since you gave the link to the website you were "endorsing 3dice??"... umm probably not cause you lost the bonus after that.)[/QUOTE]...............the old mystic has returned
quit your lurking and put it out there girl
i agree with all the above comments you made .............................laurie
"Courage is the discovery that you may not win, and trying when you know you can lose."
- Tom Krause
Gamblers Go Wild Forum
mysticjoz (20th December 2007)
Point taken, however my remarks was mostly ment for the persons directly in the descussion, you should not be offended when you are not one of the people telling me me I'm the crazy one. I know this is a public forum, that doesn't mean that my comments are ment for the whole world just because you read this thread.
I have been arguing with SlotsWizard a long time over this, and I do not think he is offended by such remarks, we just have a complete different opinion.
I appologize if you and others feel offended. regarding the low-rollers comment, this was infact called for in my opinion since <$1 wagering operates and behaves quite reasonably. This is not where and when I loose and get upset, it's after big wins in $10 wagering and suddenly all slots "die". If I return to $0.36 wagering I win again, however I must admit I am not going for that $100 win, which is worthless to me honestly.
Again, sorry to have offended you in my ranting.
If I gave that opinion I have made a mistake, I found it completely strange that that streak would flip to a redicilous win streak, which magically stopped when I tipped right above what I had wagered in the same round. (that would mean I got my chance to get my 100% back).
To be crystal clear - I was not happy again. I would have been happy if I could double my deposit, which I didn't - as ususal.
EDIT: Even if I had doubled my deposit, I would still not have been happy since the way the cards were dealt was utterly madness. I would have been happy to double my money, but not the way it went. If I had doubled, I would still have the feeling, oh, I was supposed to win this - it was no strategy from my end involved since the streak was to obvious. Also, I see no need for repeating myself, however I feel this happends at every online casino. This is not a 3Dice problem, also MG. I have lost so many 1000s in MG BJ, and comparing my strategy with real cards I have to wonder. I do not lose that much there. That's all I can say.
gobucs (20th December 2007)
kimss,
I have to say that you are far more gracious and patient with the ignorant than I.
Why You, I, or anyone else does anything, whether it's quitting gambling or wiping our a** is irrelevant to the subject being discussed. I hate it when the self-righteous offer their opinions. Typically they're just blowing their own horn, and concealing their own demons.
Back to the subject at hand. "Are online casinos cheating us out of our money?"
If I play 100 hands for $1 each and have less than a 5% variance in wins/losses vs. the dealer, and then play 100 hands for $50 and see a 30% win/loss advantage for the house, would that be considered random? Of course the argument you will hear from the casinos, is that it was a bad run. I can accept that. But what if it happens twice, or three times, or every time? I can honestly say: I've never just played for an hour and decided to increase my bet and went on a rediculous winning streak. It's not for lack of trying, believe me. Common sense would tell you that eventually, maybe just every once in awhile this would work out in my favor. The fact that it never does, is the heart of the issue.
These patterns do exist. I don't want to speak for you, but I assume that your reason for the post in the first place was to see if anyone else was seeing the same things. I am. I just want a fair game of Blackjack, but have a lot of doubts as to whether one exists. I personally continue to play because of a fading hope that maybe I'm wrong, maybe I've had a bad run, maybe I'll get some back. (Yeah I know the term for this) But bad runs don't last forever in the real world, only the cyber world.
Quitting at this point does seem to be the only option because the design of the software appears to be such that they will never allow you to win any back. But they have my money, how do I just walk away from that? They just keep taking and taking and will continue to take until enough people like us shine a light on the issue and there is some sort of true, international third party regulations and testing for online gaming,implemented to truly protect the player from unfair gaming.
Until then, we're just suckers spending way too much time analyzing hours of hand histories, watching our money flow from us like blood from a stuck pig, feeling like you've been completely cheated and taken advantage of, only to have people tell you "Why don't you just quit".
For those people, I'd just say: Thanks for the advice. I never thought about that. Where were you two years and $150,000 ago? I could've bought a house, if only I'd thought about that before! Or in other words, stay on the subject, the world has enough shrinks as it is.
gobucs
kimss (20th December 2007), trips to win (21st December 2007)
Based on the log files that I have studied, the received Statement of Findings from fair gaming professionals and correspondence from casinos is some of the situations studied (some very simple like comparing number of 2 card 20's for the dealer versus player and some not so simple like correlations based on bet size including streaks) are skewed in favor of the casino beyond expectation but not enough standard deviations (or hands played) from expectation where the situation can be declared unfair with certainty. A number of situations are/were not skewed in either's favor but ironically over a small sample size of 10000 hands there is no significant situation (of those actually studied) or maybe one case that is very slightly skewed in the player's favor. This is what I am trying to grasp and yet remain open minded as I continue trying to understand the concepts fairly that I (one previous post) as well as some others mention in this thread. The casinos have been very cooperative. The ones I have dealt with want fair gaming assured as much as the players. That appears to be in the best interest of the industry imo. I suppose they could have told me to get lost and that I should just quit online BJ. Kudos that they did not![]()
Last edited by NASHVEGAS; 20th December 2007 at 11:20 PM. Reason: Note:ftr no conclusions were made on correlations,bet size, or streaks. Post may lead one to think those were skewed,sorry!
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