Texas Hold-em bonus

[Avatar73]

Ok, I seem to have done a lot of losing recently! But this one actually winds me up! Texas HE bonus, played with optimal strategy calc.

Ante: £5
Amount at start: £416.04
Amount wagered: £1,000
Amount at end: £21.04

Return: 41.6 %

Right, well on beatingbonuses.com calculator, put in
Bonus: £416.04
Amount wagered: £1,000
Bet Size: £5

And we have

Chance of Gain (ie not losing it all like me): 99.9%
And 2 standard deviations below the mean would be: 157.45

So this leaves me at LESS than THREE standard deviations below expectation!

Is this dodgey or what? I expect to have bad days, but this is outrageous. Just before this I hit a royal for 4k, so it's not all bad news, but ever since then it's just gone down the drain, like they're trying to get it back? Ok well thats a bit paranoid and highly unlikely in reality i would have thought, but all the same, 3 SD below the mean, in such a short wagering ..... ?

[Gaahl]

I belive that game has been discussed alot on here, arrest me if im wrong.

Don't know if there was a conclusion, atleast my conclusion on the game is that it is not random...

[Avatar73]

Ah, I think you are thinkging of THE Shootout - Whereas I played THE bonus.

These are 2 different games, and the one I played should all be by the book, well studied and analysed, and all the maths should work.

Shootout is a bit of a mystery generally... there's some shady clauses and seems to work like a pretty kind of slot - either that or they "cheat" by seeing all 5 board cards plus 2 sets of starting cards and pick the best before they begin.


But to get this bad on Bonus.... ?

[Avatar73]

OK i have flushed another 100 down the toilet that is this game.

I have lost 500 in 1400 wagered.

This is below 4 SD below the mean. Does anyone know what is going on?

Even the maths gives chance of gain (ie not busting out) as 1.000
Should I suspect this game? Ok perhaps the sample size is small, but then if you lost 60 hands of BJ in a row out of 60 played, wouldn't you suspect something on this sample size?

[aka23]

At which casino did this occur? Perhaps the amount wagered was the total of initial bets, rather than the total wagered including raises? Is some hand record data available to confirm correct strategy and other issues?

I'd recommend not betting with £5 initial ante in the future. The average final bet size will be nearly £20, resulting in a good chance of a large win/loss. However, the losses should not be as large as the numbers you listed.

[Avatar73]

Thanks...

Ok it was at PaddyPower, the amount wagered was total INCLUDING any and all raises. I know this cus I was playing for a bonys with WR 1600 currently stands at 200, and I checked to make sure raises counted (and of course, obviously, they do). So 1400 Wagered. I had £400 from my royal flush win, then £100 deposit, now stands at £10, so £490 loss over 1400.


Yes, £5 ante (and £20 per game in JoB, 4x£5 hands) is perhaps a bit, but it's mainly time issues to get thru WR. It brings bigger variance, but still has the same expected outcome overall, and over the longer term I think the variance is worth it in order to save so much time.

PP has all the logs, but you click on the session, then on each hand, and then you get the info, so without emailing their CS I don't think it would be easy to export.

Expected return: 482.52
Chance of Gain: 0.999
2 SD below mean: 182.87

My out come: 10

[KasinoKing]

I've played this game a little bit on various platforms and I nearly always leave the game with the word 'rigged' ringing in my ears! I have no stats to back it up or anything - I just don't like the game much.

I theory I would expect it to be fairly low variance as you can't win anything mega like you can with Caribbean stud for example, but just like that game the cards just seem to take the piss a bit too often!
Mind you, I usually have ringing in my ears after playing BlackJack as well - so maybe I better stick to slots!

[Avatar73]

Yes... perhaps Shootout is rigged as they can hide behind unclear rules, such as PLAYER is dealt random cards, but not mentioning the 2 bot players and how they are dealt.

However, the T-H-E Bonus is pretty transparant... random cards from a single deck.... so this shouldn't happen at all. I accept "bad luck" and "bad variance" but when it gets this ridiculous, I have to start asking some serious questions.

[Mr_Zoidberg]

I think you are making one big mistake. Did you read the small text below the calculator?
*The chance of gain result is the chance of ending above the deposit balance with unlimited bankroll. ...

So your conclusion is not correct(3 SD bla bla), because you are talking about the chance of busting, not the chance of gain.

But you are right that it is still very odd to lose ~32 units(416/13) in only ~77 bets(1000/13) :?

I played it once at Intercasino and had very experiences with it

[Avatar73]

Ah, appreciated!

However, I think you are wrong, coz I wagered that amount already.
Thus I performed my calculations assuming that what I wagered was the TOTAL being wagered (ignoring the fact that the real WR was higher).

Given a wagering of 1400 and a "bonus" (or balance) of 500, the chance of gain is 0.999. As you see, in a wagering of 1400 and start balance of 500, i lost all but 10.

So, although it can be easy to confuse risk of ruin/risk of gain, I think my conclusions are correct!

Thanks for your point tho; also seeing as I never dipped below "0" in wagering 1400 (due to multiple deposits ) this is effectively working off infinite bankroll.