32Red - Dodgy Blackjack?

[Avatar73]

Ok, well I think the BJ at 32Red is a bit weird.

It's standard Atlantic, 2 units per hand, 600 hands required.

In the last 4 months I put in 32 for a 32 bonus. So a total of 64.
At 2 per hand, that's a 32 "unit" wallet, when betting 1 "unit" on each hand. A total of 600 HANDS is required (not units).
Every time, I have busted out on about 100-200 hands.

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm

Do the maths there. With a "bonus" of 64, 2 per hand, chance of going bust first (ie not making a "gain") is 0.135. So the chance of busting out like that 3 times in a row is 0.135^4 = 0.0003322 or 1 in 3010?

Now, those aren't impossible odds, and I'm sure someone will jump in and say that the maths isn't quite exact, due to not meeting WR, but surely the chance of busting out even earlier is even lower? Also, the 0.865 chance of gain would presumeably include all the occasions where you drop below "zero" and then regain some, so wouldn't be quite so high if you stop at the first chance of 0.

It just seems to suck my money at the mo.

Othertimes it works the other way! Wagering 5,000 left me 350 higher than what I started with once (and the was Euro BJ!) which is well outside 2 SD!

It seems that 32Red either gives you unbelieveable poor luck or massively good luck. I either bong out and lose it all v quickly, or end up with over £100. Anyone else notice this?

[aka23]

The "chance of gain" result in the calculator you linked to assumes unlimited bankroll (mentioned in comments below calc). It is not applicable to evaluate chance of busting with a limited bankroll. Later this month, I will have a return/variance simulator which does evaluate risk of busting with a limited bankroll.

For chance of bust, I recommend risk of ruin tables such as the ones at http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix12.html or at the bottom of the blackjack page on my site. Both tables indicate a risk of bust of a little under 30% for the situation you described. You can reduce the risk to less by choosing a game with 1 unit bets. I recall that a few of the BJ versions have one unit bets, but don't recall which ones.

Note that the 32 red bonus does not require 600 2-unit hands, due to doubles and splits increasing the bet size of the final hand to larger than the initial bet. Instead, it should require ~530 hands.

[Avatar73]

Thanks!

Note that I did mention that because of busting it would be different, but certainly 30% bust makes the situation a lot more likely!

There may be some with a £1 bet option, but then those ones dont have autoplay, i think, and therefore aren't really worth spendin 2 hours plus on to squeak out a (reasonably) lower bust %.

When i win, i seem to win decent, and I'd rather win less over a longer period but spend next to no time on it, rather than squeeze more money and spend forever doing it - after all, time is money!

I also realise that you don't need 600 HANDS (I didn't mention the reason, which you have given already!). However, on the autoplay you can't specify a bet amount, and there's no easy way to see the total amount bet (logs only do per hand, so you would have to go thru each hand and add it all up).
Besides, it's worth betting an extra 70 hands ~ £140 just for the autoplay feature and just to "overbet" a bit and reduce chance of being a "bonus abuser" !

Anyway, thanks for the observations! A bust calc would be nifty. This is also why i kinda like "get the bonus at the end" schemes. This forces you to play out WR - obv you could lose a lot more in the end, but like in this case, presumeably it would decrease chance of bust to make chance of "not losing deposit and bonus" 0.85.

Does this mean, you would be better sticking in say 200 and always letting it get to the end of 600 hands no matter what? Obv you could lose more, but would you in fact more often than not, end up better off?

[ssgtsnelly]

avator, scroll down to the bottom of the blackjacks and look for vegas strip single deck, can do £1 on that and still autoplay enjoy

[Avatar73]

okely dokely! Thanks for el tippo!

I'm sure the odds were worse tho? Or it didn't have autoplay? I'm sure I checked out all their offerings.

Maybe this is a new game, or maybe I just missed something!
And anyway, even if the HE is say 0.6 instead of say 0.4, the *much* lower bust rate from 1/hand probably makes up for this!

[tim5ny]

I like to go bust early while the sun is still shining and there's still time left in the day to do something.

[KasinoKing]

Ok, well I think the BJ at 32Red is a bit weird.

It's standard Atlantic, 2 units per hand, 600 hands required.

In the last 4 months I put in 32 for a 32 bonus. So a total of 64.
At 2 per hand, that's a 32 "unit" wallet, when betting 1 "unit" on each hand. A total of 600 HANDS is required (not units).
Every time, I have busted out on about 100-200 hands.

Sounds to me like you are trying to 'abuse' their generous monthly offer.
(Why else would a player want to wager 1200 flatbetting at BJ...?)
All I can do is ask that you please don't do that.
All that will happen in the end is that you will be excluded from future monthly offers.

Just my 2c.

[Gaahl]

Abuse? How is it abuse when it is allowed in the T&C?

[ssgtsnelly]

gaahl he is describing bonus bagging and they dont like it too much, although if you lose it all back to them on another game then im sure they are more than happy to keep letting you play :P

[cslate]

Be carefull

Of who has a vested interest in 32red....