Theodoros Kiriakopoulos
Athens, Greece
WHY IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR A RNG TO PRODUCE RANDOM-INDEPENDENT OUTCOMES
REASON No1
(and how to take advantage of the degree of non-randomness, to have an edge against the casino)
When a mathematician examines if a RNG generates random SEQUENCES of numbers-outcomes, some statistical tests are used (these numbers-outcomes are series of 0 or 1 which correspond to sequences of numbers from 1 to 9 or sequences of cards from ace to king, etc). Read here what these tests are:
.
BUT WHAT IS A NON-RANDOM SEQUENCE OF NUMBERS?
Very difficult and revealing question. So lets see what the mathematicians claim a non-random sequence of outcomes is:
It is a sequence that it is rejected by these statistical tests.
But note that even if no statistical tests are made, WE KNOW that a RNG will definatelly not generate such a sequence:
Of course we are talking of sequences of the outcome of either 1 or 0.
A statistical test will reject the sequence:
1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 ...
and I think they will also reject the sequence:
1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0 ...
and as you understand, they will reject many-many more sequences that are predictable or are the results of a mathematical formula.
But all these sequences are equally probable with any other sequences of numbers!
THEREFORE THERE IS NO SEQUENCE OF NUMBERS THAT IT IS NOT RANDOM!
Therefore, the RNGs do not produce random outcomes. The randomness of the outcomes of a RNG, IS BIASED BY THE FACT THAT THE SEQUENCES IT PRODUCES BELONG TO A GROUP OF SEQUENCES WHICH PASS A CERTAIN COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL TESTS. So this combination of statistical tests constitutes a non-random pattern which the outcomes of the RNG follow.
And therefore, the outcomes of a RNG are predictable to a degree. Exactly because we know and we can predict that all predictable sequences will not happen. Therefore, this allows us to have a degree of predictability. Thus the amusing contradiction is that if casinos wanted the outcomes to be completely random-independent-unpredictable, they should not deprive them the possibility of being predictable!
Now how can one take advantage of this small but existent degree of non-randomness and predictability? I guess this degree of non-randomness due to the above reason is quite small. But a small edge of 1% is enough to exceed the house edge in the game of blackjack, and thus the player can have an edge against the casino. And an edge, however small, is enough to make one head up towards infinite profit.
So this is what I did: I played basic strategy, but raised my bet whenever I expected that a sequence of cards rich in aces & pictures was coming. When did I expect this to happen?
First, I knew that since the RNG passed some the LOCAL RANDOMNESS statistical tests (see:
),
then any same group of cards (e.g. fives, or non-pictures), will be (to a certain degree) evenly distributed in all locations of the sequence of cards. So any same group of cards, would not cluster more than a certain degree of clustering. Thus after 1, or 2, or 3, or a certain number of cards (and therefore hands), the probability of meeting a sequence of cards rich in aces & pictures, will be higher compared with the probability this would had to happen if the outcomes were truly random.
On the other hand, some degree of clustering of the cards should be there, as then we would have the sequence of the type:
Picture no picture picture no picture picture no picture ...
And this sequence would have also certainly be rejected by the statistical tests or some other type of checking.
I made large profits compared to my average bet, having played more than, If I remember well, 20,000 hands, in cryptologic and Netentertainment casinos, simply by doing this:
All the above considerations suggest a particular type of bias, which I did observe also experimentally:
That pictures and aces, as well as non-pictures and non-aces were clustering more than the statistically (randomness supposition) expected, in clusters which lasted for about 4-6 hands when playing one box. So, after having seen 4-6 hands which were poor in ace-pictures, and the last hand was a bit richer in aces-pictures than the previous 3-5 hands, I was expecting a clustering of ace-pictures in the next hands, and raised my bet (from 1$ to at lest 3$, maximoum 4$, very rarely to 5$ or 6$). And after having seen 4-6 hands rich in ace-pictures and the last hand was a bit poorer in aces-pictures than the last 3-5 hands, I lowered my bet to the minimoum of 1$.
I think I made about 600$ profit this way, in these casinos. On the other hand, I ended up very far below the statistically average-expected values in Charwell, Boss media, and other casinos. The thing gets complicated, as one might say that this was only variance (And definatelly not a case of cheating). But I gave up my above experiments in the casinos that I lost, and went only for the bonus, flatbetting 1$ when I was losing or thought I had a bad run. And my raised bets were of a maximoum of 2$, insufficient to create an edge by taking advantage of any RNG bias.
REASON No2
Sequences of numbers based on physical events (which at the bottom line are the MOTION of molecules or subatomic particles) cannot be random-independent, because all events in the Universe depend on the past positions and velocities of these particles, EVEN if Heisnbergs Uncertaintly Principle is correct. Because this Principle means a degree of independency, so there is also a degree of dependency (on past velocities and positions). If I argue on whether this Principle is true or false, we are getting in the field of physics and it takes a whole book to examine this. (I have written a book on physics, but it is in greek, and I keep improving it).
Actually, the pressuposition of independent events that probability theory is based on, is false! Independent events never happen! It is just a theoretical structure! No events in the Universe are independent between them, but their chaotic-complicated pattern makes them appear as if they were independent, so they fall close to the mathematical probability formulas and distributions.
(Evenmore, the money related bets-investments a gambler or investor is making, are also depended by the Law of Justice (Karma), but it takes a book from me to say why I know with a 100% certainty that God is true and has programmed the Law of Justice for each particular soul-perception. But all other arguments in this post are still valid if this paragraph is ignored. But I wanted to mention it).
But, since the random tosses a gambler or investor is making, appear independent-random and seem to obey the probability distributions of theoretically independent random events, even after miliions of such bets-investments, we can grossly assume they are indeed random-independent.
REASON No3
(and why it is impossible for a player to take advantage of the non-randomness of a RNG outcomes in some or all casinos. And why this non-randomness also constitutes cheating by the casino. This does not mean that the below is the only way casinos cheat).
UNBELIEVABLE! LAST LIGHT I FOUND THIS:
Sren: How do you make random numbers and a fair casino game?
Roger: It truly isn't possible for a computer to come up with a coincidental account of numbers. A computer always calculates its numbers based on mathematical statistics. These statistics remain constant regardless of the complexity of the calculating process. I have been responsible for the development of Boss Medias Random Number Generator 'RNG', also for how one can receive a random card at one of our casinos and for how a roulette ball can randomly land on any given number upon any spin of the wheel. The core to our Random number generator is simply a little box attached to a computer via a port called an Orion TRNG. This TRNG interfaces (wide noise), so that a Random number generator can be read from inside the computer. The more technically interested can read more about the process by researching how these mechanisms work. Boss Medias RNG is tested over billions of results that are constantly monitored for accuracy in our 100% random results. You can follow up your interest by looking at the following flow chart in Picture 14: Flowchart
( Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) )
Go to the this page and click on the Picture 14: Flowchart
What the hell are all these procedures? And what does this gentleman mean? Are the future random outcomes cut and modified so that the profits/losses of each player, or the profits/losses of all players playing in a Boss Media casino, will definitely fall close to the statistically expected average payoff? Doesnt that mean that each player NO MATTER WHAT HIS DECISIONS ARE, will surely not win much above (or lose much below) the statistically expected average payoff? If the amount I will lose or win is predetermined to fall within certain limits, then not only the future outcomes are not random-independent events, but this equals to CHEATING. For example, if you are already winning much above the statistical average payoff, and you suddendly make a very big bet, this bet is bound to lose!!!
And therefore, of course, there is no way for the player to take advantage of the non-randomness of such RNG.
All the above are my SO FAR conclusions. As I said, I always attack my so far conclusions with counterarguments, and thus I get more true and detailed knowledge.
Voila!