Do RNGs produce random outcomes?

[hobobiker]

yeah, mind-bottling. you know, when things are so crazy it gets your thoughts all trapped, like in a bottle.(:

forgot to say before:

Chazz... Blades of Glory .

[KasinoKing]

I will try to explain it anyway. What it means that the long term normal behavior will dominate any kind of short term deviation. Let's stick with red/black on the roulette wheel, ignoring 0's. Let's assume that you get 100 reds on the first 100 recorded spins. The expected number of reds in the next 999900 spins is 499950, and the probability that it will be within 2000 of this number is about 0.999937. So the total number of reds in the first 1000000 spins will be between 498050 and 502050, and the proportion of reds will be between 0.49805 and .50205 with probability 0.999937. There is nothing about black being due or occurring more frequently after the first 100 spins.

Yes, I know that, obviously!
But I'm not talking about past events, only future events.
You know what, I think it's about time I explained to this board how my 'Gamblers Fallacy' works

KK's version of the Gamblers Fallacy

Questions & My Answers (please correct me if I'm wrong!):-
Q. Is the probability of a defined event occurring different after it has happened to before it has happened?
A. No.
If I set out to toss a coin & get heads 4 times in a row, my chances are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 (1 in 16)
If I actually toss 4 heads in a row, I have just witnessed a 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 (1 in 16) event!

Lets go higher!
Say I set out to toss heads 24 times in a row!
The chances of that are a staggering 1 in 16,777,216 = less likely than winning the UK Lottery!
Just suppose for a minute that I actually managed to toss 23 heads in a row.
Now the next toss, as GM pointed out, still has only a 50/50 chance of being heads.
I toss the coin & it's heads! 24 heads in a row!
Q. Have I just witnessed a 1 in 2 event, or a 1 in sixteen & three-quarter million event?
A. Both. The last toss was a 1 in 2 event but the last 24 tosses were a 1 in 16,777,216 event!

This is the 'Gamblers Fallacy' GM, The Wizard & others talk about.
If you had just watched me toss 23 heads in a row and you put your mortgage on the next toss being tails - you still only have a 50/50 chance of winning, not a 16.7m to 1 chance.

The only way you could profit from these probabilities on a 50/50 game is by progression betting (also called martingaling), where you are betting against a long sequence happening from the start of it, not half way through.
In this you double your bet each time you don't win. In fact, you really need to more than double your bet, otherwise you could end up risking 1000's just to break even.
This simply doesn't work because for example after just 8 losing bets you are risking 255 x your starting bet just to break even.
So for '50/50' games like Roulette or BlackJack, forget it - it does not work.
But it can work on slots!
Why? Because each bet is not 'all or nothing' - you don't need to double each time.
With every spin you have a chance of winning something back - even a jackpot.
So you can do a very slow progression over 100's of spins looking for that 1 big win which will take you into the black.
When you get it, or reach a satisfactory profit target, move on to a different slot.
Of course, this doesn't work every time - no 'system' does, but as long as your overall gains are bigger than your losses, you're quids in!

How my Fallacy worked in August (not a particularly good month due to some careless play )
+$300 - King Solomons - Slots only.
+$125 - Ruby Fortune - Slots only.
+$100 - 32Red - Slots only, except $215 wagered on Video Poker - gained $2!
_+$35 - iNetBet - Slots only.
Evens - Intercasino - slots & cards.
_-$10 - Casino Fantasy - Slots only (Only a $10 deposit + 500% bonus!)
_-$43 - Will Hills - mostly cards
_-$71 - Tote Sport - Slots only.
_-$75 - DaVinchi's Gold - 90% of play was on slots.
===========
+$361 < Total.

Not brilliant, but better than a lojo kick in the rusty tennis_balls!

KK

[mikepipe]

Not brilliant, but better than a lojo kick in the rusty tennis_balls!

KK

Nice. But why should Johnsteed give lojo a slosterish lojo kick in simmos rusty tennis balls? maybe because he didnt winbig?
Oh- where is Thelma, still on her swedish zoozie?

[lojo]

Excellent post KK. I've always had a hard time putting my fallacy into words. And the reason I niggle and shmiggle again and again over the simple mechanics of how a slot works is that I want to know when it doesn't work, if there is something about the program I don't understand. Phoo Phoo on whether the RNG's are divinely random when it comes to slots, it's in the program where deviations occur.

The very fact that probability has no bearing over the long run is precisely why probability is important session by session ~ volatility=constant opportunity.

And disciplined play = winners
{([do you have an almost 'secret from yourself' tidy little sum you dip into now and then? When I did I was bux-up.] And I'm not talking about chasing, just a cushion) because I don't factor bonuses} where's that fourth paren??? I wanted to add a disclaimer

Back to topic... damn, no interesting 'whos online now'.

Re-iterate: When it comes to slots, the relationship of the RNG to the Program is what matters. I don't care if the RNG goes 1000 times per second and restarts after a billion clicks or a year in service before it is reseeded, nor if it is constantly reseeded. I care about the program and the relationship of the program to the RNG. I can deal with a slot machine from there.

+++++++++++

'ello Joe
'lo

I see mike piped up
'lo mike

K?
K!

[KasinoKing]

I am sorry, but when I made my last post in this thread I was very tired, and I've just realised I missed out one of the most important points I was intending to make!
For clarity, I have repeated a chunk of my previous post (in blue below) and added the missing bit! (Black)

I meant to respond fully to this particular part of GM's post:

There is nothing about black being due or occurring more frequently after the first 100 spins.

Questions & My Answers (please correct me if I'm wrong!):-
Q. Is the probability of a defined event occurring different after it has happened to before it has happened?
A. No.
If I set out to toss a coin & get heads 4 times in a row, my chances are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 (1 in 16)
If I actually toss 4 heads in a row, I have just witnessed a 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 (1 in 16) event!

Lets go higher!
Say I set out to toss heads 24 times in a row!
The chances of that are a staggering 1 in 16,777,216 = less likely than winning the UK Lottery!
Just suppose for a minute that I actually managed to toss 23 heads in a row.
Now the next toss, as GM pointed out, still has only a 50/50 chance of being heads.
I toss the coin & it's heads! 24 heads in a row!
Q. Have I just witnessed a 1 in 2 event, or a 1 in sixteen & three-quarter million event?
A. Both. The last toss was a 1 in 2 event but the last 24 tosses were a 1 in 16,777,216 event!

So what this means is that GM is correct; regardless of the fact that I just tossed 23 heads in a row, the chance of it going tails on the next toss is still only 50/50.
But in my mind I am also correct! Having already witnessed an extremely rare 1 in 8 million event (23 heads in a row), the chances I will go on to witness a 1 in 16 million event is twice as unlikely - I really have got a better chance of winning the lottery than seeing that!
Therefore I personally see Tails as being more 'due' than not.

KK

[lnspin]

What i Would like to ask is has anyone ever gotten 5 scatters back to back , or maybe even hitten a RJ on consecutive spins .

I think if these slots were truly random these events would occur from time to time , with the hundreds of millions of spins that are played on these slots .

For me i think the slots are almost random , but i do beleive the payout percentages are adjusted , and are not set at what most casinos state .

[ThodorisK]

[COLOR="Navy"]Questions & My Answers (please correct me if I'm wrong!):-
Q. Is the probability of a defined event occurring different after it has happened to before it has happened?
A. No.
KK

Wake up. The probability "of an event occuring after it has happened"
is 100%

[GaryWatson]

yep, the total Gambling myth that everyone struggles with. We just have a feeling in our bones. its like following a number on the roulette wheel because it hasnt come out in a few 100 spins. 5 blacks in a row, obviously the next spin is gonna be red, so we double up just to see black spin in again.

[lojo]

What i Would like to ask is has anyone ever gotten 5 scatters back to back , or maybe even hitten a RJ on consecutive spins .

I think if these slots were truly random these events would occur from time to time , with the hundreds of millions of spins that are played on these slots .

For me i think the slots are almost random , but i do beleive the payout percentages are adjusted , and are not set at what most casinos state .

Well, I've hit boni three spins in a row...

I'm not the statistician, but a 15 line bonus game has something like 18 million to one odds of hitting the top prize, so I'd guess that it would be 18mmx18mm to get two top prizes in a row.

I don't think they ever set the RJ to $1000 so it would be hard to hit that one twice but maybe on a nother game right after winning one. gawd what would the odds of that be? No one knows I guess.

But if the Powerball lottery odds are 1/42,000,000 and you could buy 42mm different numbers it would be a safe bet when it gets over 200,000,000 I would think

[aka23]

What i Would like to ask is has anyone ever gotten 5 scatters back to back , or maybe even hitten a RJ on consecutive spins .

I think if these slots were truly random these events would occur from time to time , with the hundreds of millions of spins that are played on these slots .

For me i think the slots are almost random , but i do beleive the payout percentages are adjusted , and are not set at what most casinos state .

Think about the odds of these events. The odds of 5 scatters on Tomb Raider or Thunderstruck are about 1 in 150,000. So the odds of 5 scatters back to back are about 1 in 150,000*150,000 = 1 in 23 billion. It's not surprising that nobody posts about such events. However, people have mentioned extremely rare repeat hits. For example, I recall a thread about 1.5 hours of free spins on Rain Dance. The player got 6 retriggers after hitting all 5 scatters.