Predicting random

[Rusty]

Has anyone else played MG slots so much that they think they can predict how they will play?
For eg hallowenies after you hit the free spins with a retrigger will either put you back on very quickly or the scatter symbols will basically dissapear from reels 1 and 2 and you will often get scatters on real 4 and 5 together.
When the scatter eventualy comes in on real 1 you will not get another scatter with it.
Also if you hit a decent win you generally go 10/15 spins without a win straight after.
Twister plays exactly the same way.
With Aztec ritches I waited over 300 spins for the feature and I knew it would be garbage. I won 25 free spins and hit 1 win (9 lines) of 3 jacks hmmm very random I'm sure.
200 spins later and no more feature but I knew when my money was nearly gone it would keep giving 2 scatters as it usually does.
I find it is quite easy to predict when I'm on a losing streak but I always carry on to try and prove myself wrong
I wish I would
Anyway if winning/losing patterns do exist then even if you cashed out it or went bust they would be waiting for you next time.
Do any other regular slot players think they have spotted general patterns (winning or losing) or noticed the same things as me or have I finally cracked?

 

[I<3Microgaming]

I think you may be right if you're always playing the slots the same way (i.e: clicking spin at same intervals, always autoplaying, etc).

I have found some patterns too but I never play MG slots the same way... I vary my play (little bit of autoplay, a little manual clicking, waiting different intervals between spins, etc) and I have found it stays pretty random plus makes it much more exciting

 

[KasinoKing]

Do any other regular slot players think they have spotted general patterns (winning or losing) or noticed the same things as me or have I finally cracked?

Errrrrmmmm.....

If you set out to look for patterns chances are you will find them, particularly with such high variance games.
It is completely normal for people to think something is 'rigged' when they're having a bad run, but realistically it would be very counter-productive for the casinos; It's much better for them if you get a good run for your money - loads of fun playing time while they slowly take their 4-6% off you. If you have a good time you're much more likely to come back.
If they rigged the slots so you lost your stack in double quick time with a 60-70% return you'd likely soon give up depositing & playing there any more.

I wish I had the time to plot the reels on Halloweenies - I'm fairly sure there are 2 scatters on R1, maybe on R2 as well, and almost certainly 3 on R5.
My (large) gut feel is this is one on the easiest slots to get free-spins on.

KK

 

[Rusty]

hehe aztec gold 35 free spins 9 lines.
Wins=2
3 tens twice.

My (large) gut feel is this is one on the easiest slots to get free-spins on.
lol yeah about every 200 spins average but I used to think that.
ive played it thousands of spins lately and I reckon out of the last 10 times i got the spins i did'nt make *10 bet which is a joke.
Better still laddies has just crashed which is a shame as I was already 55 spins in on pollen nation without winning a spin higher than my stake, I may be making records here!

 

[Rettahs]

Errrrrmmmm.....

If you set out to look for patterns chances are you will find them, particularly with such high variance games.
It is completely normal for people to think something is 'rigged' when they're having a bad run, but realistically it would be very counter-productive for the casinos; It's much better for them if you get a good run for your money - loads of fun playing time while they slowly take their 4-6% off you. If you have a good time you're much more likely to come back.
If they rigged the slots so you lost your stack in double quick time with a 60-70% return you'd likely soon give up depositing & playing there any more.

I wish I had the time to plot the reels on Halloweenies - I'm fairly sure there are 2 scatters on R1, maybe on R2 as well, and almost certainly 3 on R5.
My (large) gut feel is this is one on the easiest slots to get free-spins on.

KK

KK, is Ho Ho Ho considered to be a low to medium variance slot? I used to love to play this one and for months I could catch the free spins with retriggers if I hung in there long enough but these last few months the hits just are not there no matter how long I hang in there and trust me I have stuck with it much longer than I should have 600+ spins several sessions now which to me seems a bit off for that slot. Last night I went over 500 before I just gave up. I know I should just stop spinning but I play for fun not just for the money that comes out of it and I used to enjoy playing that slot a lot so my only question is what is it considered a low to medium variance slot or just a crappy one that you can get lucky on some times lol .

Oh and by the way, how did you come out on that free chip with Prince of Sherwood? I saw your screen shots and had a free chip from an RTG and I played Prince of Sherwood also and like you it hit back to back 4 times in a row but my return was not as large as yours but I still found it funny how I do the best on free chips and or a capped bonus at the RTG's.

 

[reda]

i play a lot of rtg slots but i find patterns in those like you mentioned. it seems when slots are playing you can click on any game and most of them will be loose . and when you cannot hit NOTHING on certain days you can just about bet that all the slots are playing the same way. and then there are days when you trigger the features and your happy BUT YOU GET CRAP. its bad when you finally do triger features and your only betting 20 to 40 cents and the best you get back is less than 2 dollars. on days like that i find it useless to bet a 1.00 because your betting way more then you will get back.

 

[happygobrokey]

you can't predict slots. or anything served by a random number generator.

when you are losing, you can seem to predict losing spins because you're expecting one every time. similar to the "hit all the red lights" illusion. we've all felt like we just KNEW the dealer was going to pull that one-outer for 21 vs your pat 20. or that that freespins round would pay nothing. if it paid 1000x bet would you still remember how you were certain it would be a stingy one?

i empathize and can see what you mean, certain scatter icons appearing more than normal and seeming to always come after certain other events. try to be objective and look out for the spins that contradict your theory, and for yet more certainty and credibility, record the spins for further analysis possibly with a team of number crunchers. superstitiously, some say that the delays/hangs when playing are the computer rigging you to lose, and i agree i feel safer from tampering the faster the cards come. but truly there's nothing to worry about and these little anomalies/delays in packet sending are common in all online data transfers.

why are we always saying we can know when a dry spell or a close-but-no-cigar configuration is coming up? if you're going to discover a predictable string in these games, let's at least look for patterns of predictability in the win streaks, not the losing streaks eh! all above is JMO don't lynch me

 

[KasinoKing]

KK, is Ho Ho Ho considered to be a low to medium variance slot?
Oh and by the way, how did you come out on that free chip with Prince of Sherwood? I saw your screen shots and had a free chip from an RTG and I played Prince of Sherwood also and like you it hit back to back 4 times in a row but my return was not as large as yours but I still found it funny how I do the best on free chips and or a capped bonus at the RTG's.

I'm no Zoozie, but I reckon Hohoho is very low variance; You hit lots of wins - probably on more than 50% of the spins - but they are mostly very small.
The free-spins hit on average every 100-120 spins. The payout is still relatively low as it's only x2, but what I like is that you get 20 spins which gives you a better chance than other slots of a re-trigger! I once had it re-trigger 4 times for a total of 100 free-spins!

The RTG: Hey I'm a low-roller - it will be weeks before I finish the WR on that!

KK

 

[Rusty]

you can't predict slots. or anything served by a random number generator.

when you are losing, you can seem to predict losing spins because you're expecting one every time. similar to the "hit all the red lights" illusion. we've all felt like we just KNEW the dealer was going to pull that one-outer for 21 vs your pat 20. or that that freespins round would pay nothing. if it paid 1000x bet would you still remember how you were certain it would be a stingy one?

i empathize and can see what you mean, certain scatter icons appearing more than normal and seeming to always come after certain other events. try to be objective and look out for the spins that contradict your theory, and for yet more certainty and credibility, record the spins for further analysis possibly with a team of number crunchers. superstitiously, some say that the delays/hangs when playing are the computer rigging you to lose, and i agree i feel safer from tampering the faster the cards come. but truly there's nothing to worry about and these little anomalies/delays in packet sending are common in all online data transfers.

why are we always saying we can know when a dry spell or a close-but-no-cigar configuration is coming up? if you're going to discover a predictable string in these games, let's at least look for patterns of predictability in the win streaks, not the losing streaks eh! all above is JMO don't lynch me

I ca'nt afford the rope to string you up
It certainly would be interesting to look at it more objectively and do some number crunching after all this would prove or disprove what I am saying.
The problem is of course how big do you make the data set and who wants to do such a painstaking unpaid task?

However, there are definately patterns in hallowenies for eg
You only need to play it for a few thousand spins and you will notice certain patterns of how the scatters fall.

1) you will notice that when you hit the scatters on reel 1 and 2 it is rare for you to hit the feature.(actually less often than say when you hit reel 1 and 3 or any other combo) this is significant as statiscally it should be more often.

2) You will notice how often you hit the scatters on both reel 4 and 5 when you have no other scatters.Again this is far more than is statiscally likely.

if you can be bothered to play it for long enough the above patterns will be very obvious.
I have noticed other low variance slots with free spin scatters have the same patterns such as Twister and munchkins.

I guess if nobody else experiences the same thing then I will do the numbers.
as it is possible that it is just suggestive reasoning on my part.

Might need to enlist some help from Zoozie if comes down to numbers.
I guess you know the reel lay out Zoozie?

 

[XXLClubCasino]

You might know or not that some RNG are taking additional daily/hourly weather forecast values or values from the stock market (exchange rates etc.) to generate their random numbers this to add additional non CPU related varience to further increase the randomness.

This could also explain that on some days those external data are more favorable to a particular slot and there for the hit frequency is higher on some days.

At the end of the day it always come down to the fact that perfect RNGs are not predictable and this is definitely one of the main difference between a good casino software and a free casino game for windows based on the windows random engine function.

 

[mikepipe]

Good theme Rusty!
Yes, i am sure taht there are patterns. In MG slots and in RTG, but i didnt collect my material; it s been a lot of experiences like yours with halloweenies.
My most predictable is cleos gold at RTG. I get the feature very often, when cleo is on the first line of the first wheel and a pyramid below with a second pyramid on wheel 2 or three. If you (i...) find this pattern its a 90& for the third pyramid to come.
And this pattern comes very often after a series of double scatter hits.
ok---- i know, it can be blunder and ans "overslotted" brain , but at cleo i am quite sure.

 

[babs7262]

I think Patterns exist

That is all I play (RTG)

I find patterns all the time and have had 3 cashouts in the last week. Not alot, because I dont gamble alot, but nevertheless, cashouts!

IMHO....I find that when "I" play games that have just hit the Random JP, they seem to do well to get it back up again. Also....As I have stated this before.....there are always 2 or 3 games that hit alot of bonuses and the rest wont do that well. Ill give you an example


Casino Yesterday>>>> I put in $20, started with honeybee, after 3 spins left it. Went to Goldbeard, did 3 spins ...on the the 3rd spin got bonus for 4 spins, won $2.80 on first 3 bonus spins, on 4th bonus spin hit for $110, immediatley left. Went to Cleopatra...got TWO bonus spins in 20 spins, left after 2nd. Went to a few others and played 3 spins and left like money, outofthisworld and prince. Went to Paris, got a bonus for 35 spins on third try!! Left , went back to Ronin, got 1 bonus and left went to Cleo and got another bonus and cashed out

Two weeks ago...Goldbeard and Honey to the Bee were giving me bonus spins like it was my last day while others gave me none.

 

[amatrine]

Re

One pattern I have sen in goldbeard is that it seems I will hit two gold coins often if it is going to hit free spins, and I wont if it is not .

Ama

 

[Rusty]

Is it possible that the software has two or three modes instead of just random.

Could there be routines that can kick in if you are on a big losing/winning streak that ensure you ultimately get around 95% payout?

From a Casinos point of view this would ensure a predictable profit margin which is obviously desirable and for the player it would mean at least some success some of the time which is good for repeat business.

It certainly does feel that there is an invissible on/off switch as regards wins on certain software.

I could throw in how the prima/MG poker software behaves (low stakes sit and go) into the mix as well.

Anyway as has been said I do not have the numbers to back my theories up only my own happy/painful experiences but I think it is interesting to discuss software "behaviour"

Ultimately I have fun and that is why I play but this nagging doubt I have maybe only cured when the UK regulated casinos are advertised as random, independently audited and gambling comission regulated.

You will notice that non of the leading brands cared to comment on the issue of regulation and licensing in my "UK REGULATED CASINOS" thread which is a shame as their input would of been most welcome.
Their silence is, infact, deafening but ultimately it is up to the player to educate themselves on this issue.

 

[happygobrokey]

last time this came up i tried to bring up that the predetermined win value of each spin is random and that the reels just align in such a way to create this payout. for example if there are 3000 ways to make a payout of 0.00, etc and one way to make the progressive jackpot, then in the computer they store 3000 balls that pay 0 and one ball that pays the jackpot and the corresponding number of balls for the ways of each payout. then the slot, having drawn the payout ball when you spin, allows the reels to set a representation of the payout. so long as the probabilities stay the same, they do not need to "draw" a specific reel combination at the moment the spin begins, but only a randomly chosen payout which they can show to you in perhaps a multitude of ways.

i am thinking then the machine can also use this tell if it is hitting the longshots (say 50x payouts or higher) too frequently, and likewise if the stingier hits (of 0 and <1 bet payouts) are happening too much as well. this might serve to tune the slots to their projected payouts, by not allowing draw after draw from the lowest wins or total losses, and by not paying out huge win after huge win in a short time. it will make sure to throw in wins (will reject "no-win" balls until a decent-paying outcome is chosen) when there have been many draws from the red zone on my attached chart i threw up, and it avoids choosing multiple wins from the blue area in close succession.

i'm not trying to suggest anything, but that if slot payouts are adjustable, there must be some way they avoid being totally impartial to what they pay out. i dunno, it's tough to get one's head around. i believe they (slots) are fair, but random? i don't see how they could be entirely so. i don't bother much with them anyway, because to get the real returns that equalise all the money they suck, one has to spin for quite some time. they're growing on me a bit, but mostly only t-struck. </ramble>

 

[Rusty]

That is quite an interesting take on things Happygo' and indeed if a slot had an adjustable payout it follows that it can not be truly random and indeed from a programming point of view your idea makes sense.
Of course it is possible to program a slot that is entirely random with an expected payout %
You simply calculate the total amount of payout from the total line combinations and adjust the paytable accordingly taking into consideration the expected wins from any features you incorporate into the slot.
Every "spin" should then draw a random number to generate the position for each "reel"
Having programmed my own 5 line slots I have not noticed any of the patterns I have mentioned though obviously streaks still occur if not as pronounced as in the online casinos.

 

[happygobrokey]

just to elaborate, my main reason for entertaining this line of thinking is because most live machines and apparently also on rtg's software the payout of certain machines/games can be tweaked. if there is a way to make the game pay out at different rates, then the game can't be randomly choosing the physical positions of each reel each and every time with equal probability of any one of the stops coming up. and the way i understand it is in a live slot machine, the computer chips control the whole thing, and it couldn't be so simple as reel one choose a number 1-36 corresponding to a reel stop and repeat for remaining reels. but even in this case you could alter the payouts by making the game more likely to choose a really cruddy first/second stop to lessen the winning combinations possible. so that's all i got for now. good luck cracking the code and breaking out of the matrix and all that

 

[AudiManinBoro]

Rusty, the fact that they can state with clear confidence a `win ratio` of a `certain percentage` tells you that these slots are not totally random. In order for a certain percentage to be achieved, a slot cannot play `randomly`.Of course there will be a certain amount of randomness in all the slots, but once a slot has paid out enough and has gone BEYOND its % payout, the software will be instructed to start taking money in again. Random by definition means you CANNOT determine what % factor a casino will win or lose. By stating that they CAN and knowing that they CAN, the foregone conclusion is that random is only random up until a certain point, when the slot needs to take money back, and after big payouts, thousands of poor soles go through losing streaks. My two pennies for what its worth lol

 

[hobobiker]

is this a wind up

You might know or not that some RNG are taking additional daily/hourly weather forecast values or values from the stock market (exchange rates etc.) to generate their random numbers this to add additional non CPU related varience to further increase the randomness.

This could also explain that on some days those external data are more favorable to a particular slot and there for the hit frequency is higher on some days.

so is it better to play on a rainy day or a windy day ......or a stormy day when the FTSE index has climbed 2 points and the price of shares in google are down 4points? Silly Me and i thought that on some days the hit ratio changed due to the casino trying vto balance their RTP% ....cos the only pattern i can see is that after a large payout the RTP% drops ........dramatically.

 

[Rusty]

Rusty, the fact that they can state with clear confidence a `win ratio` of a `certain percentage` tells you that these slots are not totally random. In order for a certain percentage to be achieved, a slot cannot play `randomly`.Of course there will be a certain amount of randomness in all the slots, but once a slot has paid out enough and has gone BEYOND its % payout, the software will be instructed to start taking money in again. Random by definition means you CANNOT determine what % factor a casino will win or lose. By stating that they CAN and knowing that they CAN, the foregone conclusion is that random is only random up until a certain point, when the slot needs to take money back, and after big payouts, thousands of poor soles go through losing streaks. My two pennies for what its worth lol

I think the idea is that a payout % is stated as the average payout and any 1 slot is not set to payout an exact % over a specified time frame.
for eg a random slot % payout would be calculated thus;

(20 symbols each reel) squared by 5(reels)
20*20*20*20*20 =3,200,000 combinations

You would then assume that each of those combinations was achieved once and work out how many coins were paid over those combinations.

eg
500,000 winning combinations paying 2,800,000 coins in total

so the average payout % would be 2,800,000 coins returned in 3,200,000 spins = 87.5% payout

It does'nt matter that this calculation is based on 1 coin/1 line as it would be the same 5 coins/5 lines

 

[Rusty]

Amazing how this random thing is always worse than you would expect.
Twister 25% payout over 150 spins
and
1 PAYOUT higher than *2 bet size

IN 150 SPINS!

and this after having 35 consecutive no paying lines in halloweenies and having a period of 100 spins where they payout was 12% LOL but at leats it was around 70% overall.

 

[KasinoKing]

just to elaborate, my main reason for entertaining this line of thinking is because most live machines and apparently also on rtg's software the payout of certain machines/games can be tweaked. if there is a way to make the game pay out at different rates, then the game can't be randomly choosing the physical positions of each reel each and every time with equal probability of any one of the stops coming up. and the way i understand it is in a live slot machine, the computer chips control the whole thing, and it couldn't be so simple as reel one choose a number 1-36 corresponding to a reel stop and repeat for remaining reels.

VWM or Zoozie are probably better qualified (or certified ) than me, but my belief is:-
We all know that 'physical machines' (fruit machines in the UK at least) are not truly random in the traditional slot sense of the word, but do work exactly as you have described.

The reason for this is obvious if you think about it;
The physical reels have, I don't know; 18-20 symbols on each?
Anyway, when it spins the first reel only does about half a spin then the others go clonk, clonk, (clonk), (clonk). (Depending on how many reels there are).
Now they can not all spin to any random position because they would have to spin dis-proportionate amounts to each other which would look really weird & make people think they are 'rigged' .
So my theory is they spin into an 'area' of about 4-5 symbols, using something like you described to chose which exact one, depending on whether it's decided to give a win or not.

Rusty, the fact that they can state with clear confidence a `win ratio` of a `certain percentage` tells you that these slots are not totally random. In order for a certain percentage to be achieved, a slot cannot play `randomly`.

We've discussed this before AMB, and your thinking on this remains clouded.
I find this very common among UK fruit machine players, many of whom seem to have trouble understanding the maths of slots.

You're saying they are not random otherwise they could not pay an exact %, but this is simply not true.
As Rusty explained in his post above, there are exactly X numbers of combinations a slot can land on. Therefore by carefully structuring the paytables the software people ensure that the exact number of Y winning combinations pays out slightly less that the income gained from the exact number of Z losing spins.
Also, as video slots to not have the constraint of physical reels, they do not have the problem described in the first part of my post and can land on any section of the reel on each spin.

The simplest comparison to explain this is the single-zero Roulette wheel.
There are 37 positions on the wheel (therefore exactly 37 'winning combinations') and no matter what type of bet you put on the pay-out is proportional the to 35:1 you'd get for 1 number.
No matter what you do, the house edge is exactly 2.7027027027%
The wheel does not have to be 'rigged' to achieve this - the maths determines it.
Random video slots are exactly the same (if a bit more complicated to work out!)

KK

 

[brutaldeluxe]

VWM or Zoozie are probably better qualified (or certified ) than me, but my belief is:-
We all know that 'physical machines' (fruit machines in the UK at least) are not truly random in the traditional slot sense of the word, but do work exactly as you have described.

The reason for this is obvious if you think about it;
The physical reels have, I don't know; 18-20 symbols on each?
Anyway, when it spins the first reel only does about half a spin then the others go clonk, clonk, (clonk), (clonk). (Depending on how many reels there are).
Now they can not all spin to any random position because they would have to spin dis-proportionate amounts to each other which would look really weird & make people think they are 'rigged' .
So my theory is they spin into an 'area' of about 4-5 symbols, using something like you described to chose which exact one, depending on whether it's decided to give a win or not.

That's exactly what happens. JPM and ACE machines were perfect examples of this. If you knew what you were doing you could often predict the exact symbols that were going to come in. Of course sometimes you could try and use this to manipulate certain reels to fall on certain things.
For example on machines like caesars palace, hotshot etc and many others most people know that three trail holds when it's above four will mean you will get sufficient numbers to put you in the feature next spin. Now on machines like rollercoaster or snakes and ladders it didn't matter as all features were the same but on caesars, hotshot and many others the numbers filled up a nudge trail. Now instead of just pressing start and spinning all three reels to get in you could hold 1 or 2 reels and try and manipulate which numbers would drop in.

Now a reel spin on an ACE/JPM machine can be as little as 4 symbols, it's very rare for it to only spin four symbols but it is possible. It's usually 5-9 per reel. Sometimes more but that's the usual. So if you had some good symbols near the line on reels 1 and 2 say.......you could hold them. Now look at reel 3 between 5 and 9 symbols and what numbers are there. There maybe only 1 symbol with a number on it in that range and that's the symbol which will drop in most of the time. Of course sometimes that symbol might not have enough numbers to put you in and in that case you won't get in the feature. Or the machine may decide to not put you in, even though it's three holds if that number would mean a high win was instantly available (or even close) from nudges.....in this case you'll get a "funny" spin, the machine will often pause and then do an overly long reel spin and land on nothing or perhaps a four symbol spin and "cheat" you. Of course that didn't always happen, alot of the time it would spin you in what you were aiming for.
Of course on JPMs/ACE the machine had to well......be in a good mood or....be "showing"......some of you will know what I mean by that.

You could also do a similar thing by holding 1 reel. Say you held reel 1 on a single bar when the trail had held 3 times on seven. Now the middle reel will spin 5-9 symbols so you are looking for the double bar on that. Now reel three will spin 5-9 symbols more than reel 2 spun. So you can loosely predict where reel 3 will fall also. So reel 2 might spin 7 and reel 3 would spin 7 more and land 14 away. It also helps that there are two treble bars on reel 3 which gives you a better chance anyway. Now if you knew the reels you would know where the numbers are and you would know which ones are likely to fall in and hold reels accordingly.

Most people don't realise just how complex playing a UK fruit machine properly could be. Certainly far far from "random" the way all these zero skill US style machines are. Wth UK machines there would be many times when it is actually completely impossible to win a jackpot if the machine was in suck mode. On a "random" US type machine that should never be the case.
Some UK machines would actually freeze and lockup if you got a win which you "weren't supposed to win". If caesars palace dropped you in a blue seven on the mix n match feature when it wasn't "going" it would freeze for instance.


The exact story with the randomness of these US type machines I don't know much about. I know people always look for patterns and their recollection of them are always highly bias. They don't ever remember when there is no apparent pattern and note that down. I could say on mad hatters I seem to notice that the bunnys seem to love to roll in on 1,3 and 5. And many times they will hit on two out of those three reels. Getting them on other reels is far less common.....or at least that's how I recall it. The actual truth of the matter could be completely different.

Congratulations if you could be bothered reading all that ! I hope at least someone found it interesting.

 

[Rusty]

As a UK slots player for 20 Years+ I did find it interesting although the following paragraph made my eyes bleed;

You could also do a similar thing by holding 1 reel. Say you held reel 1 on a single bar when the trail had held 3 times on seven. Now the middle reel will spin 5-9 symbols so you are looking for the double bar on that. Now reel three will spin 5-9 symbols more than reel 2 spun. So you can loosely predict where reel 3 will fall also. So reel 2 might spin 7 and reel 3 would spin 7 more and land 14 away. It also helps that there are two treble bars on reel 3 which gives you a better chance anyway. Now if you knew the reels you would know where the numbers are and you would know which ones are likely to fall in and hold reels accordingly.


But I got it in the end.
Thanks for the insight.

 

[Simmo!]

Hmm this thread's question has given me something of a quandary. I believe online slots are random. But I also believe you can gauge the "warmth" on some of them. Help

Probably goes back to that definition of random we ran a thread on recently.