What Is "Random" ?

[Simmo!]

Hi all,

Seen a few debates over the years about whether or not casinos are "random". Everyone has their own opinions of course, but how do you define random?

For example, the common conception of random in our arena would probably equate to the thought of numbers being picked out "lottery style" - totally at random and thrown our way, constituting a win or not. Personally, this is how I feel the big software companies do it although likely in a more complex manner.

However, if one assumes that the numbers are picked out "deliberately" to form a sequence, is this still not randomly delivered? If 5 players are playing a game, which one of them gets which number is still random right?

Of course the third "theory" is that rather than one RNG per game or casino, there is one RNG per player, in which case maybe a pre-determined sequence is delivered to an individual which in itself is not "random" as such. I don't believe this latter happens myself, but, if one assumes that a Video Poker game has a 98.5% payout does this not mean that over time you will get the expected result and therefore, it is still random, will still have highs and lows?

Be interested in other's takes on what constitutes random (in particular GrandMaster and Zoozie), and more interestingly in fact, where does "random" stop being random?

Cheers,

Simmo!

[AudiManinBoro]

To me, random should mean `accidental`, a sequence of events not influenced, not coerced, not assisted and not manipulated in any sense of the word. Something unpredictable. yet as well know there are a few games, especially in the past I believe which WERE predictable. Senior members of this thread wrote about it once, about how patterns were visible in some of the games. The fact that MG seems to have fixed it means nothing, at least to me. Its just a possibility that they have become more adept at hiding said patterns. If theres a pattern it isnt random and you cant argue with that.

[gerilege]

[...]
However, if one assumes that the numbers are picked out "deliberately" to form a sequence, is this still not randomly delivered? If 5 players are playing a game, which one of them gets which number is still random right?
[...]

I hope I understood your question.

I tried to give a brief explanation about randomness in this post from another perspecitve:
http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/...tml#post144756

In this case it depends on what do you mean by "picked out deliberately". Take a deck of cards, and denote the cards with 1,2,3,…52. For example, if you always put back the cards, and you "deliberately" deliver 1,1,1,...,1, it is obviously not random, no matter which player gets which card. Similarly always delivering the 1,2,3,...,52 sequence is also obviously not random. I think what you meant is:
- All cards are delivered, and each card is delivered only once.
- The order is somehow predetermined.
- Players getting the predetermined cards in random order, e.g. who gets the next card is random.

This case is trickier, but the last point will not ensure randomness. Let’s assume that the game is Texas Hold’em, and the deck is pre-arranged, but you don’t know how. You are the second player, and get the Ace of Spades (1) and the King of Hearts (26). The first player got the first and second cards of the deck, which were King of Spades (13) and Queen of Spades (12), other players got whatever they got. Now the flop comes. If the deck was not pre-arranged, you would have 6% chance that the King of Spades flops. If the deck was pre-arranged, you would have 0% chance for that.

Of course one can think that you have the same chance no matter that the deck was pre-arranged, because the King of Spades can be in someone else’s hand anyway, but not with 100% probability, only after the shuffle is done. So the fact that you don’t know that the deck was pre-arranged (but it was), doesn’t ensure you the same gaming conditions, when the deck is random. When the deck is random, it might happen that someone else holds the King of Spades. When no shuffle is done, it might not happen that someone else doesn’t hold it.

With other words, when the RNG is biased, the fact that one can’t be sure about the exact bias doesn’t eliminate the bias in the RNG.

But if your question was: “Does it matter whether you shuffle the whole deck before the deal, or you just get random cards one by one?” Then it doesn’t matter.

[Slotster!]

I read somewhere that sat waiting at a zebra crossing is a good random number generator in terms of how many people cross. Might be a bit dull if you're looking for a big number though.

I struggle with the whole 'random' concept, because there always has to be something that influences something else to produce the number. Like the lottery balls for example, if the machine didn't spin at that exact speed, or they didn't press the button at that exact moment...

I've thought about this a lot and it ALWAYS makes my head hurt.

What was that piece once about RNG's at online casino's being produced by white noise through something something? (As technically accurate as ever there!)

Interesting stuff nonetheless.

[chuchu59]

Personally, I do find that most of the table games and slots for the Big 4 software is quite random. What I worry about (without any real proof) is whether the 'randomness' is diminished when the bet size is increased.

[CasinoForumu]

random in casino games=modern myth

[trips to win]

I have no clue but I truly believe that the listed payout percentages give a false sense of hope. I also believe that most casinos can turn off the big wins whenever they feel like it by tampering/screwing with the software. They give some pretty big hits when there are 100 free spins or a 1 hour free spin promo. Then deposit and see how far your deposit and bonus goes.
And another thing while I'm ranting and raving- what the flying F is with the reels that jump? There's the 2 TV's and the golden 7 on Couch Potato !! WOOHOO !!! HUH? A reel jumps and now there's 1 TV and a golden 7 for a win of $0.00? Happens a lot too. More than I personally think it should.

[3Dice]

A series of numbers could be labeled 'random' if it exhibits the following properties.

1. Equally distributed.

After an infinite amount of numbers, each possible outcome has to occur the same nr of times. This is not so difficult to understand, and comes quite naturally to most people.

2. Unpredictability.

This one is a little more difficult. People often get confused when thinking about this, particulary because of the confusion raised by the difference between predetermined and predictable. One needs to understand that these two things are something totally different. It's not because some sequence is predetermined, that it is predictable. The easiest way to imagine this is the following. Lets assume a real random sequence exists. (and it does - no worries). Ok, so we write it down. We now have a piece of paper with a perfectly correct random number sequence. It's gonna be really hard to argue that it is not predictable tho, since we know the next number, its on the paper. However, the clue of course is that its only predictable IF you have the piece of paper. This type of random is called a pseudo-random, and modern day fysiscs sugests that it is the only type of random that really exists. (cfr cellular automata, quantum physics, ..).

Instead of a piece of paper, many methods have been devised that give correct evenly distributed unpredictable pseudo-random nrs. (that is, they are unpredictable for anyone that doesnt have the formula, the 'paper', and this formula or paper cannot be derived from looking at just the output).

Its not that difficult to understand, but as a sidenote I would like to note that the very concept of it is completely against the human nature. Our brain is designed to detect paterns, even if they are not related by cause. (that is we notice 22 coming after 11 and our brain will give it a different meaning than any other number coming after 11 even if its just totally "random".)

just my 2cent.

[EasyRhino]

There was a goofy online sweepstakes thing I entered last year that might be illustrative. People could enter all month and play a dumb little game, but there was only ONE big prize. When I was reading the full rules, the following could be apparent:

1) People were playing more or less all month.
2) At one (random, heh) time during the month, the grand prize would become "unlocked".
3) The next player who "won" the game would then win the prize.

So really, the winner was whoever stumbled into the game at the right time.

A slot works very similarly, except it's generating a wide range of outcomes (from zero to big jackpot), and just selects the current one when someone happens to spin the reels.

A card-based game works similarly, but there's the additional constraint that as each card is removed from the deck, it must be tagged so that the software will not draw it again until a shuffle.

The thing that's a pain about random number generators is the "seed". I'm not a programmer, but since computers are very deterministic and uncreative, a random number generator needs a seed value in order to operate. If you give the same RNG the same seed 10 times in a row, you're going to get the result 10 times in a row.

So, let's say the seed you use is the current calendar day. That means that the RNG is going to produce the same outcome for every spin of the reels on that day. That would be abysmal. So, I understand that many seeds use something like the millisecond decimal of a computer's system time, thus they have a seed which basically changes continuously.

I've heard of RNGs that sample background radiation from space to use as the seed. A programmer friend wanted to use it when setting up a football pool.

[dominique]

the very concept of it is completely against the human nature. Our brain is designed to detect paterns, even if they are not related by cause.

Yes, we are hardwired that way. It allowed humans back in the cave days to identify poisonous fruit etc, and invent stuff too.

Intelligence is widely judged by the ability to connect patterns, and animals that are better at it than others seem more intelligent to us.

So the random concept goes against every grain in our make-up. It is what makes gambling so fascinating, but it is also what drives some people to irresponsible gambling. People keep looking for that pattern (system) that will allow them to conquer the game.

By definition, this can never happen.

Or they figure that the next hit is just around the corner, which, really, no one can predict. It may well happen, and you could hit free spins or something 10 times in a row, or you may have a loooooooooooong dry spell.

Again, by definition this cannot be predicted.

There are branches of philosophy that say that there is nothing random, that all things are predetermined by all kinds of factors. This may well be true, but what we define as "randomness" today happens in a way where our brains are unable to detect patterns.

This is a never ending brain tease, and the actual reason why lots of very intelligent people find themselves drawn to gambling is because it stimulates the brain.