Roulette- why you can't ever constantly win.

[mbcobretti]

OK, I've been looking at playing roulette for a couple of days, and I think this example will show how you cannot ever make a constant profit playing this game.

Say you wait and watch ten spins and wait for 10 numbers to come in- now you bet on every number that has not came in so far- may seem a good strategy cos surely the same number cannot come in more than twice in another 5 goes? Wrong, the same number has every chance once the betting comences- I played on a practise table and the number 7 came in 3 times within 10 goes, so maybe go for betting on the same number. Wrong, because you may then get 20 completely different numbers in a row and the first system would have worked.

The above point is a very simple system but highlights a very important point, it is imposible to know what number or colour is going to come in- even if you try and follow a much more complicated and thought out system, they will always fail because a roulette table is never going to play the same as it did in the last 10 goes.

If anyone can actually claim to win constantly at roulette, I'd love to hear from them?

Of course, with all successful systems, they provide profit over a given time- you can go days with a losing streak, but good systems pull thorugh and show profit at the end of the month. So, can anyone claim to use a successful system for roulette?

I think perhaps the only system that may provide some profit is backing red if red came in last. I know that there is no memory on a roulette table, but one thing that seems to happen a lot is you see 'streaks' of the same colour. There is a 50/50 chance of each colour and say after 1,000 goes, the actual number of reds and blacks will be roughly the same down to stats, but they will not be in a constant order of red - black - red - black - red - black and so on- that is too perfect in my opinion. Yet, this can't be practised on online tables cos they are computerised anyway, the number or colour is already predicted before it even comes in.

I'd like to try the system but I reckon you'd need at least 100 worth of goes at level stakes to see if any constant profit could be made.

Anyone with any thoughts or experience are welcome to post- i'm interested in what people think!

P.S, I'm gonna record 100 worth of goes on a online site anyway just to se what happens, but it would be best doing it in a proper casino.

 

[tencardcharlie]

I think perhaps the only system that may provide some profit is backing red if red came in last. I know that there is no memory on a roulette table, but one thing that seems to happen a lot is you see 'streaks' of the same colour. There is a 50/50 chance of each colour and say after 1,000 goes, the actual number of reds and blacks will be roughly the same down to stats, but they will not be in a constant order of red - black - red - black - red - black and so on- that is too perfect in my opinion. Yet, this can't be practised on online tables cos they are computerised anyway, the number or colour is already predicted before it even comes in.

What kind of force do you think it is that make the ball become attracted towards certain colours on the table?

I'd like to try the system but I reckon you'd need at least 100 worth of goes at level stakes to see if any constant profit could be made.

I can tell you with much higher accuracy that it doesn't work, without making one single spin.

 

[aka23]

The roulette wheel does not have a memory. Future outcomes do not depend on previous results (in a fair game). The house edge is constant for all spins.

 

[Ronin]

The roulette wheel does not have a memory. Future outcomes do not depend on previous results (in a fair game). The house edge is constant for all spins.

Very correct, this also means there is no such system to play roullete.

Yet you can "constantly" win with roulette, in fact the chance of winning as much as "a" jackpot with slots is about the same.

Example:
To keep it easy, we shall take out the house edge by removing the green zero.
I bet $1 on RED, I have a 1/2 or 50% chance that it comes up, ergo there are 18 red spots and 18 black spots on a roulette wheel.

Now we have to keep in mind what Aka23 said

Future outcomes do not depend on previous results

So the next spin, the chance that RED will come up is also 1/2 or 50%.
This means that the chance for RED to comeup multiple consecutive times is
1/2*1/2*1/2 ......

To put it all together, we had $1 dollar on RED, and now we like to know what chance we have to get 10 consecutive hits on RED and also what our wins are, knowing that RED pays out 1 to 1 (=2 for 1):

1/2*1/2 *1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/2^10 = 1/1024
$2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024

We can conclude that, without the houseedge, you have a 1/1024 chance
to win $1024 by betting $1 of your own bankroll (leave the winnings on the table after a win, to play with the house's money!).

If you continue the series the odds of winning a big amount (slot jackpot size) with roulette are often better then those of winning the "super dooper million dollar progressive" slot.

Hope this clarifies it a bit.

Greetz

Ronin

 

[Nifty29]

My system for constant winning at Roulette is to only play tables that pay 37-1 for single numbers.

Dont get much play these days

 

[ddice]

Why is there even a single reply to this?

 

[Jarome]

Why is there even a single reply to this?

You need to understand human behavior to ask this question. In a perfect world the only reply would be that of aka32 - short, simple and accurate.
But we are not in a perfect world (which is infect a perfect world to live in - flaws should be embraced) which means the OP would not understand aka32's short answer. hence the LONG reply by Ronin. but wait..... This is not really the reason why Ronin wrote the post - It is because the human nature is in search of fame... constantly. Being the "smartest" in a post can bring quite the fame.
As you can see the answer to your question could've been answered shortly like aka32 but my humane nature is longing for fame (and of course fortune) - I thank you for taking your time to read. Now GLORIFY me!

 

[Ronin]

You need to understand human behavior to ask this question. In a perfect world the only reply would be that of aka32 - short, simple and accurate.
But we are not in a perfect world (which is infect a perfect world to live in - flaws should be embraced) which means the OP would not understand aka32's short answer. hence the LONG reply by Ronin. but wait..... This is not really the reason why Ronin wrote the post - It is because the human nature is in search of fame... constantly. Being the "smartest" in a post can bring quite the fame.
As you can see the answer to your question could've been answered shortly like aka32 but my humane nature is longing for fame (and of course fortune) - I thank you for taking your time to read. Now GLORIFY me!

Wow Jarome.. you're definitly the smartest in this post.

hat off !

 

[KasinoKing]

To answer the original question: Quit when you're ahead!

No matter what system you use, if you play it long enough you will lose.
So just stop when you're ahead, come back the next day, use a different system & quit ahead again!
Hey-presto - consistent winnings!

Before anyone asks - no I don't do this myself.
But I am going to when all the easy bonus money runs out...

 

[gfkostas]

But if red has come 20 times in a row isn't it more likely that black will be coming up shortly at least once? since rarely do we ever see a consecutive color for more than 10 times. Sure the ball has no memory but mathematics dictate the outcome and mathematics say that red can't come all the time especially when its been 10+ in a row. I naively believe that a roulette with no bet limits can be beaten.

 

[fathead]

But if red has come 20 times in a row isn't it more likely that black will be coming up shortly at least once? since rarely do we ever see a consecutive color for more than 10 times. Sure the ball has no memory but mathematics dictate the outcome and mathematics say that red can't come all the time especially when its been 10+ in a row. I naively believe that a roulette with no bet limits can be beaten.

If red has already shown 20 times in a row, the odds are about 1 to 1 that that red will show the next spin.

Now if you were to state "Starting the next spin, red will show 21 times in a row", then yes this is extremely unlikely to happen. After the 20 streak is already over, though, 21 is not that unlikely, about 1 to 1.

You are correct that if there were no table limit and you had unlimited bankroll, roulette would be beatable. Table limits are there for a reason. Also, not everyone has a billionaire bankroll.

 

[Reef]

but you do not bet on how many times it will come red or black consecutively. You are only betting on 1 spin and the table has no memory of past results. Each spin is an independent event.

cliffnotes: due to house advantage, roulette is unbeatable in the longrun.

 

[tencardcharlie]

I naively believe that a roulette with no bet limits can be beaten.

...and you are a bonus player This frightens me. It shows how common those kind of myths are.

Nothing should surprise me anymore. I just wonder when we will se this:

I have just discovered a way to beat roulette. Using the most advanced calculator in my collection, a TXH-8764 from 1979 (vortrans Niece actually) I performed a most advanced calculus to solve the problem. The batteries started to smoke and the display got cracked from these advanced calculations, which surely proves how right I am! The system is to complex to elaborate upon for anyone except those who are willing to pay me twenty bucks, but it involves the latest findings from chaos theory, quantum mecanics and homoepathy.

Come on you guys

 

[Swede]

I assume you're not a Martingaler either, Charlie?

 

[tencardcharlie]

I assume you're not a Martingaler either, Charlie?

Thats a correct observation. Although I'd probably be a sucker and buy Grandmaster's system if he ever invents one - just to be on the safe side.

 

[Swede]

Meh, you can have my system for free:

1) stumble dead drunk into any casino of choice
2) place a whole heep of chips on 36(although you meant to play 30)
3) watch that silly little ball bumper back and forth and land on 36
4) grab that s**tload of munnies with both hands and have someone lead you to the cashier's cage
5) find a cab & go home for god's sake
6) rinse and repeat

Admittedly, this system is far from perfected but from tests(sample size:1) derived so far it seems to be working just fine.

 

[tencardcharlie]

Thank you but free betting systems never work. I immediately found a flaw in yours:

Meh, you can have my system for free:
5) find a cab & go home for god's sake

That is totally unrealistic. Everyone knows that whenever you get drunk in vegas, you'll end up married. So there goes half your earnings... Therefore it can be mathematically shown, that unless you're really hideous, your expected value will be negative.

 

[WAYLANDER]

Too funny!

WAYLANDER

 

[Slotster!]

No casino game can ever be 'beaten', else they wouldn't be in the casino

Roulette is a great fun game when there's a few of you piled round the table, suitably lubricated with your favourite tipple!

I think that's why I like the slots so much online... They're a very solitary pastime, whereas the colourful glitzy tables are great for a laugh.

 

[Swede]

Therefore it can be mathematically shown, that unless you're really hideous, your expected value will be negative.

I should be on the safe side then. Be honest guys, am I +EV here?

 

[bridgehajen]

That is totally unrealistic. Everyone knows that whenever you get drunk in vegas, you'll end up married. So there goes half your earnings... Therefore it can be mathematically shown, that unless you're really hideous, your expected value will be negative.

I naïvely believe that in Vegas, there is one for everyone, no matter how hideous you are. Especially if you are loaded.

--

Anyway, here is a free strategy that supposedly works. Sit down by the slot machines and hold a quarter in the coin slot. Be careful not to drop it into the machine. When offered free drinks, take them. If asked for a tip, complain about the tight slot machines and how you haven't won a single spin. Once the drinks stop flowing, take your quarter and repeat at another casino. The more free drinks you manage to get, the greater your win.

(Of course you may still wake up the next morning to discover that you have been married. However, at least you may find some consolation in the fact that she didn't take you for your money. Merry Christmas )

 

[mbcobretti]

Thanks for all, Merry Christmas and happy NY!

 

[fathead]

but you do not bet on how many times it will come red or black consecutively. You are only betting on 1 spin and the table has no memory of past results. Each spin is an independent event.

This is exactly what you are betting on when you use a betting progression of any kind. If you are using a 21 step progression, you are betting that you will have a winner in one of the 21 steps. If it goes to 22, then you will lose.

My point was that the odds were very much against the Red 21 streak occurring before it has started, but every consecutive Red that shows in the streak improves the odds and when you get to 20, then 21 is just 1 to 1 like any other spin would be. So, saying "20 reds have shown, so 21 must almost be impossible" is misguided, the odds are 1 to 1 for the next spin like always.

 

[winbig]

but every consecutive Red that shows in the streak improves the odds

Whoa whoa whoa, unless I missed something here, there is no such thing as "improving" the odds in roulette. It's either going to hit 0/00/red/black. One spin has no influence on the next.

 

[mikepipe]

oooh-- doesnt the spin remember the previous results?

 

[fathead]

Whoa whoa whoa, unless I missed something here, there is no such thing as "improving" the odds in roulette. It's either going to hit 0/00/red/black. One spin has no influence on the next.

Okay, let me say it another way. The odds of 21 Reds in a row (before the 1st Red in the streak has been spun) is 0.0000268%. The odds of the 21st Red in the 21 streak being spun after 20 Reds have already been spun is 48.65%. The 21 streak being completed is more likely after the first 20 Reds have already been spun.

 

[tennis_balls]

Whoa whoa whoa, unless I missed something here, there is no such thing as "improving" the odds in roulette. It's either going to hit 0/00/red/black. One spin has no influence on the next.

precisely!

that's why I go the extra yard and only place the huge bet on black AFTER
the 21st red hits.

 

[gamblino]

....(deleted)

 

[gfkostas]

Lets say we have 20 reds in a row(very rare). Isn't it almost certain that in the next 10 spins it's going to be more likely for black to come at least once? This is a fact since we never really see over 30 consecutive reds because it is extremely rare. So after a certain point you can be sure that black will show up at least once!
With 20 reds in a row you can be "certain" that this streak will not go on till the 40th time. Has it ever happened before? It must be in the trillions.
Black has to come sooner or later otherwise we would have 100 red in a row easily. Am not sure if you get what I mean.

 

[mikepipe]

Clear what you mean.
But probabilities are often not concrete. Ask Heisenberg
And im afraid, in terms of likelihood your assumption is not correct.

 

[fathead]

Lets say we have 20 reds in a row(very rare). Isn't it almost certain that in the next 10 spins it's going to be more likely for black to come at least once? This is a fact since we never really see over 30 consecutive reds because it is extremely rare. So after a certain point you can be sure that black will show up at least once!
With 20 reds in a row you can be "certain" that this streak will not go on till the 40th time. Has it ever happened before? It must be in the trillions.
Black has to come sooner or later otherwise we would have 100 red in a row easily. Am not sure if you get what I mean.

I have tested this on the computer before and you are right, the player would have the advantage by starting a 10 step martingale progression after 15 - 20 of anything have shown in a row (red/black, odd/even, high/low). Unfortunately you would not make much money playing this way since this event does not happen very often. So, once again the casinos are safe.

 

[Reef]

so you're telling me that after a roulette ball comes up black 20 times in a row. The odds of the 21st roll being black is less than the odds of it being red?

 

[fathead]

so you're telling me that after a roulette ball comes up black 20 times in a row. The odds of the 21st roll being black is less than the odds of it being red?

No, they still have the same chance. I am saying that if red shows 20 times in a row and you start a 10 step martingale progression on either red or black at that point, you will make money, but only a small amount of money per month since this does not happen very often.

For you to lose, either red will have shown 31 times in a row, or red will show 20 times and then black will immediately show 11 times in a row after that. I know this is not intuitive, but my testing shows that it does not really matter if you start the martingale on red or black, the results are similar. My computer simulations are very consistent in this result. I have run it on several billion spin runs with the same result.

 

[tencardcharlie]

Lets say we have 20 reds in a row(very rare). Isn't it almost certain that in the next 10 spins it's going to be more likely for black to come at least once? This is a fact since we never really see over 30 consecutive reds because it is extremely rare. So after a certain point you can be sure that black will show up at least once!

Let me put it this way: The probability for getting 19 reds and then one black, is exactly the same as the probability for hitting 20 reds.

The probability of getting for example
Black, red, red, black, black, red.
(in that particular order), is exactly the same as the probability to get

Red, red, red, red, red, red.

 

[tencardcharlie]

For you to lose, either red will have shown 31 times in a row, or red will show 20 times and then black will immediately show 11 times in a row after that. I know this is not intuitive, but my testing shows that it does not really matter if you start the martingale on red or black, the results are similar. My computer simulations are very consistent in this result. I have run it on several billion spin runs with the same result.

Then you are obviously doing something wrong with your experiment. It cannot become more likely for the ball to fall on both red and black.

 

[gfkostas]

Having 20 reds in a row means that black will be coming at least once in the next 15spins. It is mathematically crazy to not to. Am not saying that the 21th spin is more likely to be black but that the consecutive row of reds has to end at some point and "certainly" before we reach 50 reds in a row.

 

[fathead]

Then you are obviously doing something wrong with your experiment. It cannot become more likely for the ball to fall on both red and black.

The odds of falling on red or black are the same. It is the unlikely event of the 31 streak which generates the profit. Either 20 reds + 11 blacks or 20 reds + 11 reds would be required to lose. This is so unlikely that once you see 20 of either color you will make money by starting a 10 step martingale (1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512) at that point. You will win during one of the 10 bets. The 20 streak is so rare, though that you will not make much money doing this. You don't even have to go all the way out to 20. At about 15 or higher for the initial streak you have good results.

It is an easy system to program, try it yourself. You don't have to take my word for it.

 

[tencardcharlie]

Having 20 reds in a row means that black will be coming at least once in the next 15spins. It is mathematically crazy to not to. Am not saying that the 21th spin is more likely to be black but that the consecutive row of reds has to end at some point and "certainly" before we reach 50 reds in a row.

It is very probable that black will come at least once the next 15 spins, that is correct. However, this probability is exactly the same regardless of the 20 spins you made before. Anything else would imply that the roulette table does indeed have a memory, which does not make sense.

The probability of getting 35 reds in a row extremely unlikely. However, the probability of getting a 15 more reds given that you already have got the first 20 reds is the same as the probability of getting 15 reds at any other time. There is nothing crazy about that.

 

[tencardcharlie]

The odds of falling on red or black are the same. It is the unlikely event of the 31 streak which generates the profit. Either 20 reds + 11 blacks or 20 reds + 11 reds would be required to lose. This is so unlikely that once you see 20 of either color you will make money by starting a 10 step martingale (1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512) at that point. You will win during one of the 10 bets. The 20 streak is so rare, though that you will not make much money doing this. You don't even have to go all the way out to 20. At about 15 or higher for the initial streak you have good results.

It is an easy system to program, try it yourself. You don't have to take my word for it.

On a roulette wheel, the probability of a new streak is not in any way affected by the fact that you have already had a streak. I don't really need to do any simulation when I could just use my calculator to find out the expected results.

 

[gfkostas]

Previous results do matter not on the outcome of the next spin but on the general outcome of the wheel. If you have 20 reds in a row it is almost certain that black will show up at least once in the next few spins because reds cannot keep coming all the time. 20 reds is already very rare. So maybe with a martingale you can take the house but so many reds in a row is very rare so casinos are again safe. Past spins do not determine the future spins BUT mathematics dictate that Black has to come and usually it does far sooner than 20 spins.

 

[tencardcharlie]

Previous results do matter not on the outcome of the next spin but on the general outcome of the wheel.

No, it doesn't affect future outcomes at all.

If you have 20 reds in a row it is almost certain that black will show up at least once in the next few spins because reds cannot keep coming all the time..

No, the probability of, lets say, 5 reds in a row is exactly the same if you have got 20 reds, 20 black, or 10 red an 10 black, in the previous spins.

If you could prove that this system does work you could probably become rich even if you don't use the system because such a finding would constitute a scientific revolution.

 

[gfkostas]

No, it doesn't affect future outcomes at all.

Of course but perhaps i don't verbalize what I want to say properly.
It is common sense that after 20 reds in a row (one) black will show up shortly isn't? 30+ reds in a row is so rare that borderlines to "impossible" thus after a very rare event such as 20 reds we can expect the event to finish sooner than later.

 

[tencardcharlie]

It is common sense that after 20 reds in a row (one) black will show up shortly isn't?

No it isn't.

30+ reds in a row is so rare that borderlines to "impossible" thus after a very rare event such as 20 reds we can expect the event to finish sooner or later

Of course 30+ reds in a row is extremely unusual. But if the first 20 spins were red some of that unlikelyhood has already 'happened.' You then are 100% sure that the first 20 spins are red so you can take them out of the calculation. They're already done.

 

[fathead]

On a roulette wheel, the probability of a new streak is not in any way affected by the fact that you have already had a streak. I don't really need to do any simulation when I could just use my calculator to find out the expected results.

I went back to my simulator just now and ran another 1,000,000 spins at the 15 streak level, starting a 10 step martingale at that point. It won $30 with worst drawdown of -$127 before recovering. As you can see the casino has no worries here since it did not make that much money. You could possibly play on and off your whole life and never see a 15 streak of red or black.

The longest red or black streak that I am aware of is 24 in a row. This was in a German casino some years ago. This test goes out to 25 in a row for a loss, so it is pretty safe.

It is not critical that you believe what I am saying. I thought it was interesting and that others might be interested as well. I don't really have anything else to say on the subject. Have a nice day.

 

[hitobito2005]

Anyone who thinks you can make money on standard, unbiased, internet roulette doesn't understand basic maths/probability.

 

[gfkostas]

No it isn't.

My point is that reds cannot keep coming all the time. Usually the coming of 1 black after 20 consecutive reds is more sooner than later simply because (I repeat once more) reds cannot keep showing up forever and the proof of that is that we never had 500+ reds in a row. A streak has to end at some point. Mathematics say that after 20+ reds the streak will end before we reach 100reds in a row. Past spins "determine" future ones to an extent though i find it difficult to explain how. A streak of 20 reds will end most likely within the next 15 spins with the coming of one black. It always has been like that and it will continue to be. What I want to say is pretty clear I believe but am not expect so I can't put it in words properly.

So the answer to the question: Is black more favorable to come at least once after 25 reds in a row? The answer is yes considering that we are getting into billions to 1 probabilities there. It is impossible for red to show up 50 times in a row. Why? because black is in the game too.
After 20 reds the probability for each colour to come is still 48,65% but this isn't what am talking about here.

If I have completely lost the plot can someone put me back on track? Grandmaster?

 

[Thorn]

Hey guys,
Interesting discussion and here is what I have to say regarding it. I do not believe you can win in roulette I know you can...I do not however believe you can sit and make a living off of it. I have personally come in to several online casinoes and pulled a profit up to 12 times that of what I came in with. I do have a system(s) I use and you can definetly make money using them...however in the long run if you hang around to long and get greedy you will lose. Hence I use a system(s) set a win goal and a max loss and stick to it when I reach either one Im done for the day so ultimately I leave wit profit. The problem I have encountered online is that if you over stay your welcome it seems that no matter how good your system you begin to lose...so get you mini goals...then your final goal.....and leave. I will not share the exact system (no I am not trying to sound like an uptight ass...the material is copyrighted and I have great appreciation for the makers of it so I don't wish to illegally share it and I payed for the systems) but I can tell you that playing colors or exact numbers is not how to win. You want to either stick to betting on one of the three sections depending on the sections hit in previous spins or you want to cover the board except for X spaces (determined using a formula and calculating dependant on the history of numbers landed on)...
Cheers,
-RB
P.s. Sorry if this sounds a bit vague, I tried my best to right somethign comprehensible at 5am without giving away too much info...if you have any questions post em' up and i'll try to answer as best I can.

And on a side note.....black jack is the least risky way to make cash if that is what you are trying to do, in my opinion.

 

[tencardcharlie]

Hey guys,
Interesting discussion and here is what I have to say regarding it. I do not believe you can win in roulette I know you can....

You can win in roulette as in any other game. It's just that you cannot consistently profit from it. It doesn't really matter how you make your bets, the house edge is the same.

(no I am not trying to sound like an uptight ass...the material is copyrighted and I have great appreciation for the makers of it so I don't wish to illegally share it and I payed for the systems)

You shouldn't show any appreciation for the makers, because they have pulled a scam on you. I'm sorry about that. Good thing that you seem to have been lucky and won some money, but you shouldn't thank the scammers for your luck.

I hope you can continue to enjoy the game, which can be quite fun, without believing in systems that doesn't work, have never worked and will never ever work.

 

[Zoozie]

Even though I have only been member of this forum for one year, I have now seen this kind of thread several times - 'believers' vs facts.

Because these discussions are so common this could be the reason why so few serious posters are not trashing this ridiculous idea that you can win at the roulette. Or maybe it is below some people standards to take part in this thread.

Roulette is -EV. There are no systems that works.
And this is also the last time I also will bother to write this here on casinomeister.

Not even if you I give you a roulette that has shown red 50 times in a row. It makes no difference.

If anyone have a program that shows otherwise, you can attach them to your post and I will have a look at them...

Zoozie

 

[tencardcharlie]

Thanks Zoozie.

I have finally come to realize that I'm only wasting my and other peoples time in these kind of discussions.

I naively believed that the discussions it might convince a potential believer or two about the facts about systems, but I guess the probability for that is less than for hitting 20 reds in a row.