Roulette: Game of chance?

[mbcobretti]

Hi all,

This is my first post here so a quick "hello".

I've been having a number of arguments with my girlfriend recently regarding the nature of where the ball falls in casino roulette.

Her opinion: There is a program that determines where the ball falls. She can't say the nature by which the ball/wheel combination is physically controlled but she has stated that an experienced dealer can influence where the ball ends up. She says that a good strategy to predict the numbers will ultimately give a good player the edge. Apparently it's not the same as throwing a 37/38-sided dice in that past results can influence future results (according to her).

My opinion: There are no pre-determined numbers, either in the heads of the casino bosses or the dealer. The way the ball and wheel interact is so chaotic that even miniscule differences in initial speed/position of the ball/wheel can result in completey different results. I agree that devices exist that could improve a players odds by analysing ball/wheel speed to guess roughly where the ball will end up. And yes, a poorly-maintained wheel may give slightly skewed results or, in rare cases, muscle memory might mean a seasoned dealer throws the ball at nearly exactly the same speed every time, but it's unintentional and non-deterministic.

So, who's right? Interested in opinions from experienced gamblers and/or specifically roulette players (I'm a poker player myself so have little experience of roulette).

Thanks in advance

[Slotster!]

My opinion:

In 99.9% of cases, it's entirely random. There is a school of thought that experienced croupiers can land the ball within a set range of numbers, but it's not common. There's also the famous case of the chaps in London using some mad sort of James Bond-esque laser tracking to predict where the ball fell.

You need to visit www.wizardofodds.com - everything you could ever wish to know and more!


Oops - and "Hey!" welcome aboard!

[gerilege]

... but I read a lot about gambling and did my diplom thesis on online gambling.

This issue comes up again and again (and maybe offtopic in the online casinos forum, and maybe should be moved to another forum), especially when there's a dubiously large roulette win. I remember a story of some Serbian and Hungarian winners in London, see below...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/3558273.stm

I'm from Hungary, and this story got high publicity in Hungary, and was heavily discussed on the Hungarian gambling forums I visit. My opinion is that noone can confirm 100% sure whether there's something behind, or this is just an urban legend.

However the opinion of some more experienced Hungarian roulette players and some dealers was that it might be possible for an experienced dealer to influence the result of the throw. Of course this is not something deterministic, but a correlation is possible. For instance a dealer might be able to throw one half of the wheel 30-40% more than it would be expected or one third of the wheel 20% more in the long run. A minority stated that it's even possible to try to aim at 6 numbers with a noticeable success. Of course nothing is assured, but they state that a significant colleration could be reached. I have to say that there was absolutely no consensus on the above statements. But you might now that Hungary is a country which provides a loooot of casino dealers all over the world (relatively good salary and easy-to-learn job abroad, many recruit offices, etc.), and I can reopen the discussion on the forum that they sometimes visit if you wish.

In the today's modern casino enviroment I don't think this is a real issue. You can hear stories about dealers who tries to "outthrow" you if you don't tip, or try to help you if you tip generously, or dealers who tries to throw in favor of the casino when one part of the table is full of chips, but it's almost impossible to tell whether these stories are true or not.

[EasyRhino]

I think wheel bias is an accepted way to gain an advantage on roulette, but I have no idea how you go about it.

It's also theoretically possible you could get "dealer bias" on a Big Six wheel if the dealer always tended to spin it the same way.

Pretty darn sure that computers are involved in neither.

[Rusty]

In the past it was a fact that some dealers could spin the ball to a 3rd of the wheel with high success.This is the reason that roulette wheels and the ball itself have been redesigned in the last 25 years.The troughs that the defines the numbers are now much shallower than they used to be and the balls are very much lighter.The result of this is that the ball tends to bounce around the wheel randomly when it drops rarther than more often than not falling straight into a number.
Also remember that the wheel loses inertia all the time so that even a spin of the ball at exactly the same speed and released at exactly the same moment(orientation to the wheel) would realise a different result.
All this means that is now virtualy impossible for a dealer to spin the ball within a section of 6 numbers with any consistency.
The most important bias on a roulette table is the wheel itself as even a slightly unbalanced wheel will result in a much higher degree of probability that the ball will land in one half the wheel.For this reason the wheels are checked regularly and are swapped from table to table at many casinos as an extra precaution.

[KasinoKing]

Originally Posted by mbcobretti

So, who's right? Interested in opinions from experienced gamblers and/or specifically roulette players (I'm a poker player myself so have little experience of roulette).

Thanks in advance

You're right, she's wrong. It's entirely random.

Welcome to the forum!

[Scooter7]

Originally Posted by mbcobretti

Hi all,


So, who's right? Interested in opinions from experienced gamblers and/or specifically roulette players (I'm a poker player myself so have little experience of roulette).

Thanks in advance

I once had a pit manager who dealt European Roulette for many years. He gave a ball-spinning demonstration for me; deadly accurate is the only way to describe this man's abilities.

I found that when I dealt roulette on a regular basis, I couldn't hit a specific number, but I could know as soon as I let go of the ball what section it would land in. I wasn't always correct, but I was right often enough that if I was betting, I would have been able to beat the house edge.

I think our brains are far more powerful than we are aware of. If a computer can be used to calculate the ball speed and wheel speed to make more accurate predictions of where the ball lands (and this has been tried by crooks in casinos), our brains can make the same calculations even if we don't always know what our brains are calculating

[Beekeeper]

Unfortunately you can't place bets after the dealer has released the ball. No more bets please. The table is closed. What really amazes me about roulette that is in Vegas the tables with two zeros are more popular than the tables with only one zero.


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www.valuebetting.co.uk

[Scooter7]

Originally Posted by Beekeeper

Unfortunately you can't place bets after the dealer has released the ball. No more bets please. The table is closed.

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www.valuebetting.co.uk

I've dealt in eight different casinos and they all require the dealer to spin the ball well before the players are finished betting. I guess it's different in Europe because of how skilled European Roulette dealers are compared to North American Roulette dealers.

When I had been dealing/supervising roulette for only a couple of years (in Canada) I had to supervise a Croatian roulette dealer who had dealt in Europe for over 10 years. It was like I had the night off and wound up watching a ballet with chips. Our best dealers were good, but this guy was beyond good.

[Scooter7]

Originally Posted by Beekeeper

What really amazes me about roulette that is in Vegas the tables with two zeros are more popular than the tables with only one zero.


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www.valuebetting.co.uk

Good observation. One thing I noticed on my last trip to Vegas was that the players are not casino-savvy in any way shape or form. A huge percentage are non-casino tourist-types. They plan on losing $x.xx and don't care if it's 6:5 BJ, bad VP paytables, or tight slots. The waitresses keep on bringing booze-how poor the odds are doesn't seem to matter.

The level of competition online and the absence of the tourist mentality will force the big software providers to give better games and paytables to keep their customers. Las Vegas doesn't care if you go home and realize that you spent too much on bad games. Someone else will fill your hotel room next time and cough up their tourist dollars instead.