Gambling Log

**soflat** · 21st December 2006, 11:27 PM

Originally Posted by aka23

You need to conisder that half the time you lose your $50 depsoit and do not make a gain.

So about half the time you gain about $100, and about half the time you lose $50. This makes that average gain roughly 0.5*100 - 0.5*50 = $25 = half of the bonus. The house edge of the games reduces it to a little under half of the bonus.

Oh yeah, I forgot to factor in that you are forfeiting the bonus.

**aka23** · 22nd December 2006, 10:30 PM

The 2xWagering I mentioned before relates to wagering being expressed as a percentage of Bonus, and 2xB being a full bankroll bet on a 100% clearplay. I can express things much more elgantly as follows:

Expected Value of a Cashable Bonus = B - AW*HE
Expected Vaue of a Sticky Bonus = B*CoB - AW*HE

B=Bonus
CoB = Chance of Bust
W = Wagering Requirement
AW = Average Wagering
HE = House Edge

Note that average wagering may be quite small, if you bet the bonus early and typically do not have complete the wagering requirement.

Using some examples to confirm reasonable values:

Example #1 -- A $100 100% Clearplay bonus when using the startegy betting every thing on a hand of baccarat (player), then cashes out without playing through. The sticky formula applies since the bonus is not cashed out.

Expected Value = $100*.507 - $200*1.4% = $47.90 (the same value mentioned a couple posts back)

If instead of cashing out, you complete the playthrough on French Roulette with 60xB weighting, then average wagering changes. You wager the $200 at a 1.4% house edge, then 49.3% of the time,you win and wager an additional 60x$100 = $6000 at a 1.35% house edge. So the average wagering * house edge is $200*1.4% + $6000*.493*1.35% = $42.73. Plugging into the cashable equation:

Expected Value = $100 - $42.73 = $57.30

Example #2 -- $200 cashable bonus with 20xB wagering on BJ. If you complete the bonus with $5 bets, then the average wagering is close to the wagering requirement, as you will rarely bust before completing wagering. The chance of busting is only 9%. I'll assume that you get close to completing the wagering when you bust , So the average wagering is in the neighborhood of 97%*200*20 = $3880. Plugging into the cashable equation:

Explected Value = $200 - $3880*.005 = $181

If you made $20 bets instead of $5 bets in an attempt to increase variance increase likelyhood of using the bonus money while completing wagering, then the chance of bust increases to 37% . Most of the times you bust, you'd complete the majority of the wageirng, so I'll esitmate average wagering to be 85%. $200 - $3400 *.005 = $183.

You only get an extra $2 from the additional risk. Betting the bonus before playing through or other high risk stategies are not much use unless you expect to lose most of the bonus on the wagering requirement.

Example 3 -- 100% $100 slots only bonus with 30xB wagering requirement. This is a terrible bonus that often has a negative expected value. You will probably bust before completing the playthrough. If you choose a low variance strategy with hopes to complete the wagering, then the bust risk is reasonable. I'll estimate that you bust 50% of the time and average 20xB wagering when you bust. The other 50% of the time, you complete the 30xB wagering. So the average wagering is 25xB. Plugging into the cashable equation.

EV = $100 - 25*100*.05 = -$25

If you instead begin with a high variance slot such that you will either bust quickly or win big and then switch to a low variance slot to compelte the wagering, then the bust rate and average wagering changes. I'll estimate that 90% of the time you bust with a 4xB average wagering, and the other 10% of the time, you complete the 30xB wagering. This makes the average wagering .9x4 + .1*30 = 6.6xB. Plugging into the equation

EV = $100 - 6.6*100*.05 = +$67

You can make almost any bonus have a positive expected value by increasing the bust risk and decreasing the average wagering. The key exception is bonuses that are given only after completing wagering.

**aka23** · 12th January 2007, 01:38 AM

I had an interesting experience at Villento today. I've been playing 10-play All Aces Video Poker for the past few weeks with each of Villento's weekly bonuses. I usually bust and have never gotten 4 Aces in real mode while playing through several $100 deposits.

Today something different happened. After signing in, I had to redownload all games for an unknown reason. After downloading All Aces, I started playing. I drew 4 Aces on my first hand!!! I wish I had saved a screenshot. I stopped playing soon after that point and cashed out.

I also got into a 15-page argument on the Casino Affiliate forums over whether you should stand on a pair of 10s vs 6, or split a pair of 10s vs 6. http://www.casinoaffiliateprograms.c...t=17388&page=2 . Running a simulation with 200 million hands, working out the odds by hand, and linking to Wizard of Odd's results and other reputable sites wasn't enough! I'm surprised people like that have casino websites.

**EasyRhino** · 12th January 2007, 06:32 AM

Wow, that's quite a thread, I was impressed that Ken Smith even weighed in, early in the thread.

Wonder how my suggested strategy of doubling down on soft 21 would go over?

**jerrylee** · 13th January 2007, 05:07 AM

Originally Posted by aka23

I
I also got into a 15-page argument on the Casino Affiliate forums over whether you should stand on a pair of 10s vs 6, or split a pair of 10s vs 6. http://www.casinoaffiliateprograms.c...t=17388&page=2 . Running a simulation with 200 million hands, working out the odds by hand, and linking to Wizard of Odd's results and other reputable sites wasn't enough! I'm surprised people like that have casino websites.

ha ha funny stuff aka23.
especially http://www.casinoaffiliateprograms.com/bb/showthread.php?t=17388&page=3
where nick777 says "While those mathematical percentages you list are correct, they are also wrong" ok there buddy

**EasyRhino** · 13th March 2007, 05:09 AM

Hi thread, long time, no see.

Aka, I've thought about it some, and I've decided, I think you got a little bit lucky in your bonus hustling career. But not ridiculously lucky.

Here's why: I started a couple of months after you. I don't think I played as aggressive early on. And of course, the US closures probably hurt me a little bit more than it hurt you. Anyway, if I add up all my winnings everywhere (bank account, e-wallet, frozen in neteller, awaiting cashout from casinos) I'm probably looking at about $20,000. Don't get me wrong, I'm very happy with these results, but you were up to around $35,000 when you stopped counting a while back.

I think I made a few technical errors early in my career:

1) "shorting" myself on large signup bonuses at some places by not depositing the max amount available. I did this early on when I didn't have a very big bankroll, but I should have saved those for later, rather than wimping out on them.

2) not being aggressive enough in play: There were a lot of fairly marginal cashable bonuses that I played through 'straight'. In hindsight, if I had gone with the riskier strategy of trying to double-up or triple-up early, it would have paid off much better over the long run.

3) Being too aggressive on some play: I had a stupid roulette phase, where I was playing entire deposits on 1 to 3 numbers. That was too risky to have a reasonable expectation of profit over the medium term.

And also, as mentioned, the whole UIGEA thing really put a damper on things.

But then there's luck, and I think you had a little bit more of it than I did. Just a little.

My own activities are definitely winding down. I seem to be out of casinos that I haven't signed up, and are at least somewhat reputable, that will allow US players. The RTG casinos that I've been milking for their recurring bonuses have gradually been bonus-restricting me. And then there's the occassional offer from places like grand prive, trident, and big dollar.

I don't mind too much, it leaves me with more free time

**aka23** · 14th March 2007, 07:39 AM

Wow, its been a long time since I looked at this thread. I think that is an accurate analysis. A gain of $20k is still great, especially for a US player who only had a few months of playing prior to the October 13th changes. Another factor you did not list is me receiving more monthly bonuses and more reload offers throughout the year (including Grand Prive).

From an overall gain perspective, I agree that I was "a bit lucky", and not "ridiculously lucky." However, there were 2 events early on in my gambling that were ridiculously lucky. I've mentioned these events many times on the forums. They are what inspired to get so into gambling.

1. During my trip to Vegas on Memorial Day weekend last year, I was not a gambler. My gf and I bet maybe $20 over the course of the full weekend. Before leaving we decided to spend the $1 cash in my pocket on a slot spin, our only wager of the day. That spin won $750, which was more than enough to pay for the trip! That was the inspiration for looking into how to win more at casinos. I was interested in card counting and the MIT BJ team, and tried the QFIT program.

2. The first time I played at an online casino was at casino.net . I chose it because it had a solid sounding name, and my QFIT BJ simulator said there was a small player edge on single-deck BJ with Boss Media. At the time I did not know anything about casino bonuses. 25% with 50xB wagering sounded like a good deal, as I had a player advantage during the wagering. So I deposited $800 for the maximum bonus. I read on a website that the private BJ games were single deck and the public games were multi-deck. I later found out that all games at casino.net were multi-deck, so I was playing with the wrong blackjack strategy. In spite of using the wrong strategy, I gained $1300 over the course of the wagering using a combination of a flat bet of $25 on BJ and switching to a few slot spins from time to time. I did not drop below my starting balance at any point during the wagering. Only $200 of the $1300 was the bonus. Statistically, I should have lost most or all of my $800 deposit. Instead I had a huge win. That was my inspiration for trying more online casinos and more casino bonuses.

**aka23** · 14th March 2007, 07:52 AM

I do have 1 relevant update. I am about to complete the wagering requirement for a bonus that I claimed in September 2006, 6 months ago! I've took a multi-month break from playing the bonus because I had an open dispute and was waiting for Montana/Hastings. I've decided to just go ahead and do the extra wagering. I have about $9000 to go, and my balance is at $1800. With my current bet size and play rate, I'll finish in 60-90 min. I may post more detail, after I receive the cashout.