Probabilities

[KasinoKing]

Originally Posted by Zoozie

You could also just use 'Playcheck'.

Great idea!

OK - I'm just about to play a poker tourney - so I'll start doing Tomb Raider while waiting for my go.
(Advantage of having 2 PC's!)

[cjb]

Maybe playcheck would work..I could do that also. I did thunderstruck for 50 spins and put it on a spread sheet. Want it posted here? I hit 3 rams once for $74.25 so I did come out ahead

[KasinoKing]

This is harder than I expected!
Got a bit stuck on reel 1 - nearly there though!
Reel 2: Think I cracked it! Got chain of 28 symbols that link end to end!
Reel 3: Made my head explode! There seems to be 4 Tigers which makes it very confusing. Have got 34 symbols so far, but I think I've gone wrong as I have 2 chains & the ends don't match!
That's 3 hours already I'm taking a break!

[casinomike]

staff? I always called it "Thor's cock"

[GrandMaster]

Originally Posted by KasinoKing

This is harder than I expected!
Got a bit stuck on reel 1 - nearly there though!
Reel 2: Think I cracked it! Got chain of 28 symbols that link end to end!
Reel 3: Made my head explode! There seems to be 4 Tigers which makes it very confusing. Have got 34 symbols so far, but I think I've gone wrong as I have 2 chains & the ends don't match!
That's 3 hours already I'm taking a break!

I would expect the length of the reel to be a power of 2, either 64 or 128.

[Slotmachine]

Originally Posted by GrandMaster

I would expect the length of the reel to be a power of 2, either 64 or 128.

From what I've seen, reel length of 28 seems to have appeared in several other "cracked" 5 reel slots. Simmo! had counted 30 symbols on thunderstruck.

I'm sure there's some math behind your reasoning. What is it?

Cheers,
SM

[Simmo!]

Originally Posted by casinomike

staff? I always called it "Thor's cock"

[Simmo!]

Originally Posted by KasinoKing

This is harder than I expected!
Got a bit stuck on reel 1 - nearly there though!
Reel 2: Think I cracked it! Got chain of 28 symbols that link end to end!
Reel 3: Made my head explode! There seems to be 4 Tigers which makes it very confusing. Have got 34 symbols so far, but I think I've gone wrong as I have 2 chains & the ends don't match!
That's 3 hours already I'm taking a break!

AH yes...I forgot to mention how long it takes...sorry I actually emailed Microgaming to get the layouts but (unsurprisingly) never even got a reply.

[Zoozie]

I have started the programming on the MG 5-reel slot simulator, making a design so each slot is a 'template' which means once the program is finished, you just need the make the slot-template to analyze another slot. But I still need a lot of work on it - just started.

This first version of the simulator will not be able to handle weigthed reels. Anyway the probabilities would be next to impossible to pry out of the slots unless you write down several 1000's of spins... So the first run of the program might show the idea is 'doomed' without using weights of the reels, as it could show a payout of 200% etc. because the model is too unrealistic.


The program will be able to handle:
1) Scatters bonus
2) Wild/wild multiplier
3) Symbols can be flagged if they can be replaced by wild. (ie. some symbols can not be substituted by wild in cashville)
4) Number of lines played (actually this does not seem important when the reels are not weigthed. think about that...)

Here are the problems I currently face:
1) Getting non free-spin bonus games like in cashville (scatters) or Wasabi-San(fishies) needs a paytable. A good (and only?) solution will to have hardcoded
the average wins. (ie. for 3,4 or 5 fish for Wasabi-San). Actually I dont know if the number of scatters in cashville gives higher bonus rounds... never gotten 4 scatters there. So I need the average(bet multiplier) wins here for the slot template. If the average value is correct, the simulation will be 100% correct and not an approximation.

2) Value of the free spins. Ie. This is more difficult and I am open for ideas. Problem is ability to get retriggers for some games. I suggest free spins value is: freespins*bet*win-multiplier. So for thunderstuck this is 45*bet value. This estimate comes from using 100% payback and no-respins. The first assumption is an too high and the second too low. If someone can give the average value of free-spins (including re-spins) this will again be an excact and not an approximation.

I think what I descripted here should cover everything. Games like 'Loaded' where you select spins/multiplier is actually identical to Thunderstuck. You just need the average wins. (it is obvious the avg. wins is identical wether you choose 12,16 og 24 spins)

Anyone knows for sure that the reels are 'looped' in MG 5 reel slots?

Zoozie

[Slotmachine]

Originally Posted by Zoozie

This first version of the simulator will not be able to handle weigthed reels. Anyway the probabilities would be next to impossible to pry out of the slots unless you write down several 1000's of spins...

This is true. I don't think the 5-reel multiline video slots are weighted, but can't be sure of course.

Quote from the Wizard:
"Multi-line slots, both with physical as well as video display reels usually do not have weighted reels. Otherwise the process is the same as above. In video display slots representations of actual reels are used, which can be quite large, 60 symbols or more."

4) Number of lines played (actually this does not seem important when the reels are not weigthed. think about that...)

True. The expected return % is the same no matter how many lines you bet on. (EXCEPT of course for those machines that have progressive or otherwise bigger jackpots on certain lines, usually requiring max lines bet)

1) Getting non free-spin bonus games like in cashville (scatters) or Wasabi-San(fishies) needs a paytable. A good (and only?) solution will to have hardcoded the average wins.

True again. Impossible to know the math behind the bonus game. So it's just going to have to be an estimate of averages based on empiric data.

2) Value of the free spins. Ie. This is more difficult and I am open for ideas. Problem is ability to get retriggers for some games. I suggest free spins value is: freespins*bet*win-multiplier. So for thunderstuck this is 45*bet value. This estimate comes from using 100% payback and no-respins. The first assumption is an too high and the second too low. If someone can give the average value of free-spins (including re-spins) this will again be an excact and not an approximation.

Assuming the free spins are using the same reels as normal spins, there should be no need for approximation, the free spins factor should be mathematically, accurately incorporated into the formula? I think... I couldn't do it as I don't know the math myself, but it should be possible?

I think what I descripted here should cover everything. Games like 'Loaded' where you select spins/multiplier is actually identical to Thunderstuck. You just need the average wins. (it is obvious the avg. wins is identical wether you choose 12,16 og 24 spins)

True, the expected return is the same, doesn't matter which free spin combo you pick in Loaded.

Anyone knows for sure that the reels are 'looped' in MG 5 reel slots?

If the Wizard is right in saying the video slots are based on virtual representations of reels, then the reels will be "looped" as you say. It's our best guess anyway.

Thanks Zoozie, good stuff

Cheers,
SM