Probabilities

[GrandMaster]

Originally Posted by Zoozie

Actually I was wrong (sorry)

It is you expected loss each MINUTE that is 1.6M$.
Hourly rate is 97M$.

Not that it makes it any better......

I agree it is kind if depressing to see the simulation.. Just no way to get back
up after allready 100000 spins.

I got an idea for next modification. I will also log whenever your payback%
makes a new record, so we can see how late this can happen.

Edit: new program attached with this improvement

It still does not work on my new PC, but it does work on my old one. The two are almost identical, the new one is just a bit faster. Weird.

[Slotmachine]

Originally Posted by Zoozie

This program is an random spin autoplay simulation that also emulates the
free spins and *3 multiplier. Just let it run for some hours if you want to
see if the excact payback is 95.04% or 94.99 %. The longer it runs, the more
digits you will see not changing.

I think it's a clever approach. No complex math, just a perfect simulation, and a humongous number of spins. Practically any non-weighted virtual-reel slot without off-reel bonus features will surrender to this little program!

Cheers,
SM

[Zoozie]

Originally Posted by GrandMaster

It still does not work on my new PC, but it does work on my old one. The two are almost identical, the new one is just a bit faster. Weird.

What error message do you get?

[Zoozie]

I had the simulation running for 8.5 hours while I was at work making a
total of 3084384030 spins at bet 0.01$ on 9-lines.

And I can now present the payback% for Thunderstuck with incredible
accuracy:
Payback%=95.02% +-0.01% (95.01%-95.03%)

This is of course given that we got the reels correct.

Zoozie

[Zoozie]

A few more facts about Thunderstruck:

Average feature win is:35.3 times bet size. (Simmo was close with 33.5 from his own data)
If you get respins, wins from these do still count as wins for the original feature, and the respin is not considered a new feature.

If free spins was upped to 17 payback would be ~98.9%
If free spins was upped to 18 payback would be ~100.9%

Guess this ends the Thunderstruck analysis. It was fun and thank to all the
contributers. I still hope someone can confirm the reels posted for Thunderstruck are correct. Another way could be if someone was able to look into the client-code somehow and maybe pry them out from there. If anyone figure out the reels for other thunderstruck clone slots, I can do the simulation for that slot also. Any slots involving randoms weighted wins is probably not good, since average wins of these will have high impact on payback and not knowing them excacly will mean that the simulation is pretty pointless, as it is not a simulation. It would not be hard to change the simulation to also accept "Cabin Fever' since that is only the definition for the feature that I have to change. 'Loaded' could also be simulated as I could just pick 24 free spins every time.


Zoozie.

[Slotmachine]

3 billion spins..

Next, let's try and figure out the best (and worst) return% slot in MG. Any guesses?

I think Vinyl Countdown and similar high-minimum low-jackpot slots are probably higher return%, I'd guess around >96%

It'll be interesting to see how Lara compares! I've never liked that slot...I'd say 93%...

Cheers,
SM

[Zoozie]

Originally Posted by Slotmachine

3 billion spins..

It'll be interesting to see how Lara compares! I've never liked that slot...I'd say 93%...

Cheers,
SM

I never played Tomb Raider much, also because mininum line-bet was 0.05 at some casinos

But there is a problem with Tomb Raider. We dont know the average wins
from the statue bonus, and we cannot simultate the statue bonus as we dont know the weights of the random amounts.

[GrandMaster]

Originally Posted by Slotmachine

3 billion spins..

Next, let's try and figure out the best (and worst) return% slot in MG. Any guesses?

I think Vinyl Countdown and similar high-minimum low-jackpot slots are probably higher return%, I'd guess around >96%

It'll be interesting to see how Lara compares! I've never liked that slot...I'd say 93%...

Cheers,
SM

Themed slots in land casinos usually pay less in order to cover the licence fees, I could imagine the same thing online.

[Slotmachine]

Originally Posted by GrandMaster

Themed slots in land casinos usually pay less in order to cover the licence fees, I could imagine the same thing online.

That was part of my reasoning, too. The Tomb Raider brand is probably not very cheap...I was always a bit suspicious about the TR slot as I figured this might be the case, but I played it a bit anyway, didn't like it anyway though.

If I were running MG, I'd negotiate a deal with a well-known brand the other way around - so that the brand would pay MG to make a theme slot, and MG would profit house edge + advertising charge Say, make a "Just Do It - Nike" slot. Bang- we've got a slot and a sneaker advertisement in one...I mean, they've got millions of players, right? Good exposure for the brand!

Cheers,
SM

[eek]

Great thread guys, and well done.

It won't run on my machine either GM, but I'm running WinME.
The JDK doesn't work either.