hoops betting

[tennis_balls]

thought maybe i'd post some of my hoops bets so that Steed can assist me when I have a horrible bet idea:

tonight i'm going with over 194 on the Dallas-Utah game

a lot of chatter on the Indiana-Chicago game as Stephen Jackson got kicked off the bench last game by his own coach. I'm staying away from that game as it just seems to obvious that the Bulls will win big so it must be a sucker play.

i was looking at the new beta flash tool on another site. it seems like that's a tool for pro betters with many accounts, but it's still fascinating to see that thing function. it shows 10 different sportsbooks and all their lines updating in real time.

[johnsteed]

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Ouch "tennis_balls" on the Dallas/Utah over/under bet. I would have bet "over" just like you had done.


I've been doing pretty good thus far into the season. I've won a little over a grand thus far, and I've been playing pretty conservatively. I'm more of a "FANTASY" basketball-type-of-guy, and that's something I'm seriously going to consider doing for the '07 campaign (dissecting and researching "THE SPORTING NEWS NBA GUIDES" for the better part of 15-years on average of 30/45 minutes worth of washroom breaks will do that to a person... sorry about the details). I guess for the fun-of-it, you and I can post our picks in advance (that is... if it's "fun" for you, as I'm already sure it is for me).


If I can dig-up an old topic we'd discussed several months ago, I'd point-out that the KNICKS are anything but playoff worthy this season, and it would be obvious that Thomas will get canned by the end of it. I'm still sticking to my thoughts from last year, and yes... I'm one of the few (if not the only person on this planet) who feels that they'll be closer to .500 than now, and in a very weak EAST get into the playoffs. I can see that this team is coming together, because they're becoming more familiar with one another.


Why?


I'm not a KNICKS fan, so I'll get that out of the way first. I'm really liking this new and finally arriving (4th overall pick of the-not-so-good '01 DRAFT that's hinting at something better from break-out seasons from all their high school busts) Ed Curry. In years past, he could never have strong back-to-back games. He's had 10 strong games in-a-row! He's not just scoring - which has never really been the problem - he's finally getting minutes (sink-or-swim onus put of him by Thomas) and he's miraculously rebounding (check-out his recent game logs). And (gasp!), are those blocks he's getting? Okay, he's a black-hole who doesn't know how to pass, but like Zach Randolph in the low post, virtually unstoppable! They're forcing the ball to him, and he's going crazy with that REALLY high FG%. He's not SHAQ and never will be, but he's becoming that one consistent force that the KNICKS oh-so-desperately need...


Actually, David Lee is a rock at PF. So... their front-court is set. They'll get their minutes, and even if Jared Jeffries comes back as a starter when he's healthy, Lee will still likely get 35 minutes per game.


Now the back-court is a different issue, and once that's resolved (sticky ongoing problem), this team should greatly improve. Now, "Q" seems to be their best option at SF, and he can certainly rebound and gun long-range (although his career %'s aren't all that inspiring), but he seems to be very inconsistent (despite being the team's best player for the first 10 games of the season). When he gets his minutes, I think this team's better because he can post-up, he can play bigger, and he's a pretty underrated defender.


Crawford should always come off the bench. He's a high-energy guy who can gun, but his %'s are awful. He shoots his teams out of games, and they've already got Richardson capable of doing just that. Again... I'll gladly take him over Nate Robinson who's a worst passer than Eddy Curry (if that's possible for a 5'8" guy to do!). Robinson is a spark-plug, but frankly, is nothing more than an inspiring story. He can ball, but he can't play "team" ball, and that's all that matters in the NBA.


The real keys to getting this team over the hump, are Francis and Marbury. Francis is injured, but prior to that, he seemed to be playing a role, at identifying with one. He should be the team's starting SG once he comes back. He's not a defender, but he can do a lot of little things good. He just needs some confidence back at this point. Marbury can still play, despite what his numbers indicate. It's all on him to turn this team into his. That sounds ridiculous... I know... but he CAN pass (not like KIDD or Nash... but certainly equal to Chauncey Billups). He doesn't need to be a 20/8 player anymore. Those days are over, and those type of guards aren't really what teams are looking for. He needs to be a 16/10 guy who takes smart shots and keeps his team in the game. He's hit rock bottom, and he's young enough to turn it around. Will he? Big IF!


It's a miracle that they New York crowd are cheering for Curry, it could happen to Marbury. Thomas is not a great coach, but I still feel that this team will rally around something soon, and this team will be playing .500 ball. It's just a matter of familiarity, and setting the team's rotation. Hardly a great time mind you - far from - better not a cellar-dweller that most think they are.


I'm likely going to be wrong on this one in a few months time, but this is my prediction of the year. They're rising.


Steed

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[tennis_balls]

the Eddie Curry story is a good one, and I pray that he doesn't have any further heart problems. I kind of figured his career was over after a series of concerns over his heart.

Steed. For a man who claims not to be a Knicks fan, you sure do focus a lot of attention on them. They've just never been the same since they let Starks go.

i'm giving Pinnacle sportsbook a try. They seem to be the only large book that actually undercuts the competion with lower juice. And I won a little in their casino which was scary as it's proprietary flash software of which I'm quite leery. One new surprise for me was that their default adjusts your bet to make it so you win the amount of your wager. (that means if you bet $10 on the Lakers and they are -110, their system will then ask you to confirm an $11 bet)

I know these guys are on an island and feel safe from the US feds, but I still find it shocking that they continue to accept bets via telephone. It sure seems to me that in this hi-tech world where anyone with money can access the internet from anywhere, they would be wise to only accept bets via the net.

Tonight I'm going with the over on both the Lakers and Clippers games. And then I made a couple smaller bets on Lakers and Nets to win their perspective 1st quarters. I seem to have decent success betting on the 1st qtr. The obvious danger being that if you lose one of those bets and you're at your post, there is a big temptation to chase and bet on the 2nd half.

[tennis_balls]

that's why I hate to bet on the under....

the Lakers game tonight was on track to finish under, but then came a miracle comeback and overtime and now it's well over the number. Schweeeet!