KENTUCKY DERBY 2006 (May 6, 2006)

[Pinababy69]

The 132nd running of the historic Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is fast approaching, and I thought that it might be fun and informative to start getting the lowdown on some of the contenders. In JohnSteed like (I hope) fashion, I have compiled some data and photos, and have included my own opinions on some of the horses. Please DO NOT take my comments too seriously, as I do this strictly for fun. Also keep in mind that the actual race itself is almost seven weeks away, and in that time anything can happen. There are many prep races still to be run, and there are so many variables to take into account, that this is really a very preliminary rundown. I'll try to keep this thread updated with prep race results, injuries, and any other pertinent information I come across. I have only included 13 horses here as a starter, more may be added as time goes by.

While I know there are some very knowledgeable "horse people" here at CM, I am sure there are also some who know very little about stats, so I'll include a brief description of what each means, and a somewhat condensed version of horse racing lingo and variables for predicting performance. I am also probably going to break this down into a few posts as it will be VERY long, and if I lose any of it, I will subsequently lose what is left of my mind. Bryan assured me there is no post "length limit", but I am thinking I may go over one page, lol.

Sire and Dam - horse's father and mother respectively (name in brackets is the dam's sire). The term bred for (speed, stamina) "on top" refers to the sire's side, "on the bottom" refers to the dam's side.

Record - total starts and in brackets, 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishes.

Graded Earnings - refers to money won in graded events. All horse races have classes attached to them, or what "company" a horse runs in. There are maiden races (for non-winners of any race), claiming races (where a horse is claimed prior to the race for a predetermined amount), allowance races (slightly larger purses, sometimes a test to determine a horse's class), and stakes races (the highest class, ranging from ungraded to G3, G2 and G1..with G1 being the creme de la creme). Figures in this category only take into account what the horse has earned in G1, G2 and G3 races.

Last Races - includes the date, name of the race, whether it was a graded event or not, and the horse's finishing position.

A mile is equal to eight furlongs, as a point of reference. The Kentucky Derby is run at 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs). Just something to keep in mind when trying to pick a horse, and determining if he can "go the distance". None of the horses profiled here have raced at 1 1/4 miles, just another variable to keep in mind, and this is where breeding really comes into play.

Two of the sites that I used for reference are:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006

http://thoroughbredtimes.com

Both excellent sources of info, and both updated regularly. Okay, now that I've bored everyone to tears...on to the horses.

ACHILLES OF TROY
Sire - Notebook
Dam - Steamy Recipe (Relaunch)

TRAINER - Frank Amonte Jr.
JOCKEY - Ramon Dominguez

RECORD - 7 (3-1-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $6,000

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - Gotham (G3) 5th
02/11/06 - Whirlaway Stakes 1st
01/07/06 - Count Fleet Stakes 1st

Achilles of Troy has not won at a distance over 1 1/16 miles and is very lightly raced in graded stakes company. The one positive is his win in the Count Fleet, the same race that produced the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones. While beautiful to look at, I don't see him making that much of an impact come race day.

BARBARO
Sire - Dynaformer
Dam - La Ville Rouge (Carson City)

TRAINER - Michael Matz
JOCKEY - Edgar Prado

RECORD - 4 (4-0-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $150,000

LAST RACES
02/04/06 - Holy Bull (G3) 1st
01/01/06 - Tropical Park Derby (G3) 1st

Barbaro has won at 1 1/8 miles, and it's hard to argue with a 4 for 4 record. You have to keep in mind that a horse's form goes in cycles however, and I hope this one hasn't peaked too early. While his sire Dynaformer is predominantly known for his turf offspring, he has also produced some notable main track winners. Barbaro won the Holy Bull in convincing fashion on a track that you could have done the backstroke on. With Carson City on the dam's side, should the track come up sloppy on Derby day, this horse becomes my number one pick. Big contender either way. I will be anxious to see his next and probably final prep race, maybe the Wood Memorial. It's also worth noting here that jockey Edgar Prado is slated to ride both Barbaro and First Samurai (who barring unforeseen circumstances may be one of the race favourites). The time will come when Prado has to choose which mount to keep, and it bears watching to see which horse he chooses.

BLUEGRASS CAT
Sire - Storm Cat
Dam - She's A Winner (A.P. Indy)

TRAINER - Todd Pletcher
JOCKEY - John Velazquez

RECORD - 6 (4-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $237,980

LAST RACES
3/18/06 - Tampa Bay Derby (G3) 2nd
2/18/06 - Sam F. Davis Stakes 1st

Bluegrass Cat has Storm Cat as his sire, and you can't ask for much better than that. Throw A.P. Indy into the mix, and it just gets better. However, he's lightly raced, and I'll have to see a bit more from him, before making any judgements. He has won at 1 1/8 miles, and I don't see any problem with the additional furlong.

BOB AND JOHN
Sire - Seeking The Gold
Dam - Minister's Melody (Deputy Minister)

TRAINER - Bob Baffert
JOCKEY - Victor Espinoza

RECORD - 8 (3-1-3)
GRADED EARNINGS - $140,373

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - San Felipe (G2) 3rd
02/04/06 - Sham (G3) 1st
01/20/06 - Allowance Race 1st
12/17/05 - Hollywood Futurity (G1) 3rd

If I were forced to make one choice right now, Bob and John would be it. There are so many things to love about this horse, not the least of which is the Bob Baffert angle. Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem....all Baffert success stories. And all of them so close to the Triple Crown Holy Grail. Add Victor Espinoza into the mix, who rode War Emblem to impressive wins in both the 2002 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and you have a winning combination. His sire Seeking The Gold has produced five champions and six millionaires. Bob and John is beautiful to look at and has powerful hindquarters, which is something I look for. He has won at 1 1/8 miles and I don't foresee distance being a problem. As of right now, this horse is my top pick and I am anxiously awaiting his next start prior to the Derby. If I know Bob Baffert, he will have this horse peaking at just the right moment. I hate to be premature, but I'm even thinking Triple Crown. Did I mention the Bob Baffert connection?

BROTHER DEREK
Sire - Benchmark
Dam - Miss Soft Cell (Siyah Kalem)

TRAINER - Dan Hendricks
JOCKEY - Alex Solis

RECORD - 7(5-0-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $664,980

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Santa Catalina (G2) 1st (in 1:41.96)
01/14/06 - San Rafael (G2) 1st
12/17/05 - Hollywood Futurity (G1) 1st

When you look at Brother Derek's record and earnings, it's pretty hard not to like him. But I don't. He has won his last three races, including the G1 Hollywood Futurity. He is one of only two G1 winners in the field. The time he put forth in winning the Santa Catalina is outstanding. His sire Benchmark is a son of Alydar. He has won at 1 1/16 with ease. He has outstanding workouts. But my concern is how long can this form last? The Derby is still seven weeks away and this horse has already been in peak form for more than three months with another race to go prior to the Derby. I have no doubt that he will be the raceday favourite, which is another reason for me not to bet him. Historically, the favourites do not do well on Derby day. But perhaps he IS a super horse, and will prove me wrong. That wouldn't bother me a bit, as I love to watch history in the making.

Okay, five down and eight to go. I am going to continue this in another post...and give my fingers a break for a few minutes.

[Pinababy69]

CAUSE TO BELIEVE
Sire - Maria's Mon
Dam - Imaginary Cat (Storm Cat)

TRAINER - Jerry Hollendorfer
JOCKEY - Russell Baze

RECORD - 9(6-3-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $137,500

LAST RACES
03/11/06 - California Derby 1st (1 1/16 1:41.07)
01/29/06 - El Camino Real (G3) 1st

Cause To Believe was originally purchased for the paltry sum of $50,000 which is hard to believe. His sire, Maria's Mon, had two Grade 1 wins at the age of two and also sired the 2002 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos. Cause To Believe's time in winning the California Derby is phenomenal, irregardless of it being a graded race or not. He has won easily at 1 1/16 miles and with his breeding, distance should pose no problem. I want to see one more race before I decide, but this one is a definite possibility and maybe with a decent price attached. Dependent on his next performance, I would definitely be throwing him into my exotic tickets.

CORINTHIAN
Sire - Pulpit
Multiply (Easy Goer)

TRAINER - James Jerkens
JOCKEY - Javier Castellano

RECORD - 4(2-1-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $33,000

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) Finished 1st, placed 3rd for interference
02/06/06 - Allowance

Some horses are just bad actors, and this guy is one of them. He can't behave in the starting gate, and he can't behave on the track. He did win the Fountain of Youth, but was promptly disqualified because of his antics. None of this bodes well for him, as the excitement and noise of Churchill Downs on Derby day has been known to upset the calmest of horses. A throwout for me.

FIRST SAMURAI
Sire - Giant's Causeway
Dam - Freddie Frisson (Dixieland Band)

TRAINER - Frank Brothers
JOCKEY - Edgar Prado

RECORD - 7(5-1-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $834,900

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) finished 2nd, placed 1st
02/04/06 - Hutcheson (G2) 2nd
10/29/05 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile (G1) 3rd

First Samurai is one of only two horses to have won a Grade 1 event, and he has won two of them, the Champagne and the Hopeful, both in 2005. He's already close to the million dollar mark in earnings, and based solely on those criteria looks like the class of the field. However, it seems that his top performances came last year and one has to wonder where he is in his form cycle? On the upside or the down? This is Edgar Prado's other mount, and as mentioned in the comments about Barbaro, I am waiting to see which he chooses. I think that will tell us alot. And truthfully, I like Barbaro much better than this horse. First Samurai came 3rd in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile behind Stevie Wonderboy (a scratch for the Derby) and Henny Hughes (he hasn't even raced this year). Maybe it was some bad karma on the track that day, but I'm steering clear of this one.

FLASHY BULL
Sire - Holy Bull
Dam - Iridescence (Mt. Livermore)

TRAINER - Kiaran McLaughlin
JOCKEY - Rafael Bejarano

RECORD - 8(1-4-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - ?

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) finished 3rd, placed 2nd

I included Flashy Bull in this list even though he wasn't one of the top 12 choices on the official Kentucky Derby website. This is my wildcard horse. He did manage a third place finish (moved to 2nd) in the Fountain of Youth, but was badly interfered with by Corinthian (the eventual disqualified winner). In circumstances such as those, there is no way to tell what the outcome may have been. With his breeding, 1 1/4 miles should be no problem. He is scheduled to run next in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on April 1st, and we should have a better grasp then of what he's capable of. If I could pick a horse on looks alone, he would be it. And with Holy Bull as his sire, I think he deserves at least some small consideration.

HENNY HUGHES
Sire - Hennessy
Dam - Meadow Flyer (Meadowlake)

TRAINER - Saaed bin Suroor
JOCKEY - ?

RECORD - 6(3-3-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $558,000

LAST RACES
10/29/05 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile (G1) 2nd
10/08/05 - Champagne (G1) 2nd

Henny Hughes is bred top and bottom for pure speed and has not won a race at a distance over six furlongs. Truly, I don't even know he managed to come second in the BC Juvenile and the Champagne. I don't care that he's made over half a million, this horse has not even raced in five months, nor are there any published workouts for him. He is currently stabled over in the UAE and is slated to run in a Grade 1 event on March 25th. Good luck to him, I wouldn't bet him with Monopoly money.

Only three more to go.....can my fingers make it?

[Pinababy69]

KEYED ENTRY
Sire - Honour and Glory
Dam - Avaknowsthecode (Cryptoclearance)

TRAINER - Todd Pletcher
JOCKEY - John Velazquez

RECORD - 4(3-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $130,000

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - Gotham (G3) 2nd
02/04/06 - Hutcheson (G2) 1st

This is a hard one to call. The sire, Honour and Glory, was known primarily as a miler, and Keyed Entry himself hasn't won at a distance longer than 7 1/2 furlongs. However, he does have Cryptoclearance on his dam's side, and that translates to stamina. This is the second of two entries that Todd Pletcher has, both of them with John Velazquez listed as the jockey. The other is Bluegrass Cat. So once again, I will wait to see which horse John Velazquez opts to go with. I really don't think this horse can get the distance, his next prep should reveal quite a bit more information.

LAWYER RON
Sire - Langfuhr
Dam - Donation (Lord Avie)

TRAINER - Bob Holthus
JOCKEY - John McKee

RECORD - 13(6-1-3)
GRADED EARNINGS - $160,800

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - Rebel (G3) 1st
02/25/06 - Southwest Allowance 1st
01/14/06 - Risen Star (G3) 1st

Things that make you go hmmmmm...... I just cannot make up my mind about this one. If I had a sentimental pick, Lawyer Ron fits the bill due to his Canadian connection. His sire Langfuhr was the 1996 Canadian Sprint Champion, whose specialty was 7 furlong races. I watched him race on more than one occasion at Woodbine, and he was truly amazing. But the Derby is 10 furlongs, not 7. Lawyer Ron has won at 1 1/16 miles, but his style is that of a frontrunner, and besides War Emblem, I can't think of a recent Derby winner who employed that racing tactic. The front is not where you want to be at Churchill Downs going 1 1/4 miles. On the other hand, he does seem to be steadily improving and stranger things have happened. Another one to watch, I am not totally discounting him. His win in the Rebel yesterday was most impressive.

PRIVATE VOW
Sire - Broken Vow
Dam - Smooth As Silk (Deputy Minister)

TRAINER - Steve Asmussen
JOCKEY - Shaun Bridgmohan

RECORD - 6(4-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $317,888

LAST RACES
11/26/05 - Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) 1st

There's not alot to go on here. Private Vow hasn't raced in four months. He is scheduled to race in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby on April 15th, but I cannot see any horse winning the Kentucky Derby with only one race in five months under his belt. I just don't think he can possibly be fit enough to contend. I guess the Arkansas Derby will tell the tale. On the upside, he is bred for distance, and his sire is a son of Unbridled.

And so there we have it, some of the top contenders for this year's Run For The Roses. We still have a way to go before the field is finalized and opening odds are posted. There will probably be more horses than those I've listed here, and some of the ones I have profiled may not run. Here is a list of 6 of the more high profile upcoming prep races if anyone is interested in keeping up to date.

Florida Derby (G1) - April 1st, Gulfstream Park
Illinois Derby (G2) - April 8th, Hawthorne
Santa Anita Derby (G1) - April 8th, Santa Anita Park
Wood Memorial (G1) - April 8th, Aqueduct
Bluegrass Stakes (G1) - April 15th, Keeneland
Arkansas Derby (G2) - April 15th, Oaklawn Park

This has been quite an undertaking. JohnSteed, I don't know how you do it, simply amazing. It should be alot of fun for me to come back to these original posts after May 6th and see how far off I was and how much crow I have to eat. Given my present run of luck (or lack of), a good betting strategy may be to take every horse I've tossed, and box them on an exotic ticket, lol. Best of luck to all!!

[johnsteed]

***

Great list Pinababy69!

I knew absolutely nothing about horse racing... up until today. I love that 4-0 record by "Barbaro" (and that $150,000 graded earnings) . I know it's a horse, but it reminds me of Michael Jordan. That's a start.

I'd like to expand my portfolio this present year, and I'm thinking of doing more sportsbetting (as opposed to getting rocked by slots again). Actually, I've never really gone that route and I'm unsure as to why I never have. I've got the NBA, NHL, and MLB down (and I suppose tennis as well) in terms of knowing everything about the sport (or as much as I possibly can), and I've been looking to expand to horseracing and NFL football. Thanks for the push (and the links).

Wonderful work!

Steed

***

[Pinababy69]

Thank you Mr. Steed!! I knew I could count on you to actually read what I wrote, lol. Horseracing is a wonderful, exciting sport. And come closer to raceday, I will probably post a poll for people to vote on their choices. Should be interesting to see how bad we really are.

Right back at ya JohnSteed.

[mrracetrack]

Very informative, Pina... and a good read.

I'll add a few thoughts on the Derby as it gets closer.

A lot of horses not highly thought of at this time, will win a few races in the next few weeks, and that will add a bit of interest to the mix.

About 2 weeks prior to the Derby, things will be a bit clearer.

[winbig]

Just don't count out the longshots....can't forget what happened not too long ago

[Pinababy69]

Originally Posted by mrracetrack

Very informative, Pina... and a good read.

I'll add a few thoughts on the Derby as it gets closer.

A lot of horses not highly thought of at this time, will win a few races in the next few weeks, and that will add a bit of interest to the mix.

About 2 weeks prior to the Derby, things will be a bit clearer.

Thank You!!!! I wasn't even sure if anyone would actually read this, lol. I am really looking forward to any comments or additions you have Mrracetrack. You are absolutely right that things could change drastically in the next few weeks, I figure by Mid April, we should know alot more. The three races I will really be watching are the Florida Derby on April 1st and the Wood Memorial and SA Derby on April 8th. I have a feeling that both Barbaro and Flashy Bull may run in the Florida Derby or the Wood. That Flashy Bull really has my interest piqued, and I'd like to see a race from him. And Barbaro is definitely one of my choices. You would probably know better than I would (I'd have to look it up), but historically, I don't think that Wood Memorial winners have fared all that well in the Derby, have they? So while I'm not looking for a win necessarily from either, I would like to see a good solid tightener with good form from both of them. And as of right now, Bob and John would be my pick, so I'll be watching the Santa Anita Derby on the 8th, I think that's where Baffert will run him. It will be interesting to see if Baffert puts his other horse Point Determined in the SA Derby as well. He ran on the weekend and came 2nd I believe (don't quote me, and I can't remember the race, maybe the San Felipe or the Rebel)? One or the other. I'll have to do some research on Point Determined, I know nothing about him, but I hate to overlook another Baffert horse. And does he share any bloodlines with Point Given? The other horse I think deserves some consideration is Cause To Believe, who also may run in the SA Derby. That time (1:41) in the California Derby really caught my eye, as does his sire. Not sure if he can handle the G1 company, I guess we'll find out. I always say if a horse can run, and has the heart, he doesn't know what company he's running in, he just runs. Pretty simple I know, lol.

I'd love for you to add any additional horses or insights you have Mrracetrack, and thanks again for the compliments. Coming from you, high praise indeed. And feel free to point out any inaccuracies I may have posted as well, this was a long one, lol.

Winbig, I never forget the longshots. Giacomo last year And he was also a son of Holy Bull, which is maybe why Flashy Bull caught my interest this year. And traditionally, favourites in the Derby do not do well. I always look for value and a decent price, and seldom bet favourites.

[Daffy]

Good work!!!

I like the looks of BROTHER DEREK. Long and lean...I believe the "biggies" are all distance/endurance races. Also the Hollywood Futurity win looks good on a resume'.

Too bad about CORINTHIAN...that's a good-looking horse...maybe he'll mature into something.


D~~~~

[mrracetrack]

These are the March 20th rankings of 3year olds posted by the NTRA...

Three-Year-Old Poll
HORSE A-S STS-1-2-3 PTS PVS PROBABLE NEXT START

1. Brother Derek (13) 3-C 2-2-0-0 165 1 4/8 Santa Anita Derby

2. Lawyer Ron (3) 3-C 3-3-0-0 152 3 4/15 Arkansas Derby

3. A.P. Warrior 3-C 2-1-0-0 87 - 4/8 Santa Anita Derby

4. Barbaro 3-C 2-2-0-0 83 5 4/1 Florida Derby

5. First Samurai 3-C 2-1-1-0 82 4 4/15 Toyota Blue Grass

6. Cause to Believe (1) 3-C 3-2-1-0 64 10 4/8 Illinois Derby

7. Corinthian 3-C 2-1-0-1 61 6 4/8 Wood Memorial

8. Bluegrass Cat 3-C 2-1-1-0 60 2 Undecided

9. Keyed Entry 3-C 3-2-1-0 37 8 4/8 Wood Memorial

10. Point Determined 3-C 4-2-2-0 34 - Undecided

Age-Sex: C-colt, G-gelding, F-filly.
Other Horses Receiving Votes: Bob and John-28, Balance-18, Like Now-17, Deputy Glitters-12, Flashy Bull-8, Strong Contender-6, Red Raymond-5, Sharp Humor-4, Too Much Bling-4, Fast Parade-3, Sunriver-3, Laity-2.