KENTUCKY DERBY 2006 (May 6, 2006)

[Pinababy69]

The 132nd running of the historic Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is fast approaching, and I thought that it might be fun and informative to start getting the lowdown on some of the contenders. In JohnSteed like (I hope) fashion, I have compiled some data and photos, and have included my own opinions on some of the horses. Please DO NOT take my comments too seriously, as I do this strictly for fun. Also keep in mind that the actual race itself is almost seven weeks away, and in that time anything can happen. There are many prep races still to be run, and there are so many variables to take into account, that this is really a very preliminary rundown. I'll try to keep this thread updated with prep race results, injuries, and any other pertinent information I come across. I have only included 13 horses here as a starter, more may be added as time goes by.

While I know there are some very knowledgeable "horse people" here at CM, I am sure there are also some who know very little about stats, so I'll include a brief description of what each means, and a somewhat condensed version of horse racing lingo and variables for predicting performance. I am also probably going to break this down into a few posts as it will be VERY long, and if I lose any of it, I will subsequently lose what is left of my mind. Bryan assured me there is no post "length limit", but I am thinking I may go over one page, lol.

Sire and Dam - horse's father and mother respectively (name in brackets is the dam's sire). The term bred for (speed, stamina) "on top" refers to the sire's side, "on the bottom" refers to the dam's side.

Record - total starts and in brackets, 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishes.

Graded Earnings - refers to money won in graded events. All horse races have classes attached to them, or what "company" a horse runs in. There are maiden races (for non-winners of any race), claiming races (where a horse is claimed prior to the race for a predetermined amount), allowance races (slightly larger purses, sometimes a test to determine a horse's class), and stakes races (the highest class, ranging from ungraded to G3, G2 and G1..with G1 being the creme de la creme). Figures in this category only take into account what the horse has earned in G1, G2 and G3 races.

Last Races - includes the date, name of the race, whether it was a graded event or not, and the horse's finishing position.

A mile is equal to eight furlongs, as a point of reference. The Kentucky Derby is run at 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs). Just something to keep in mind when trying to pick a horse, and determining if he can "go the distance". None of the horses profiled here have raced at 1 1/4 miles, just another variable to keep in mind, and this is where breeding really comes into play.

Two of the sites that I used for reference are:

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Both excellent sources of info, and both updated regularly. Okay, now that I've bored everyone to tears...on to the horses.

ACHILLES OF TROY
Sire - Notebook
Dam - Steamy Recipe (Relaunch)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Frank Amonte Jr.
JOCKEY - Ramon Dominguez

RECORD - 7 (3-1-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $6,000

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - Gotham (G3) 5th
02/11/06 - Whirlaway Stakes 1st
01/07/06 - Count Fleet Stakes 1st

Achilles of Troy has not won at a distance over 1 1/16 miles and is very lightly raced in graded stakes company. The one positive is his win in the Count Fleet, the same race that produced the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones. While beautiful to look at, I don't see him making that much of an impact come race day.

BARBARO
Sire - Dynaformer
Dam - La Ville Rouge (Carson City)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Michael Matz
JOCKEY - Edgar Prado

RECORD - 4 (4-0-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $150,000

LAST RACES
02/04/06 - Holy Bull (G3) 1st
01/01/06 - Tropical Park Derby (G3) 1st

Barbaro has won at 1 1/8 miles, and it's hard to argue with a 4 for 4 record. You have to keep in mind that a horse's form goes in cycles however, and I hope this one hasn't peaked too early. While his sire Dynaformer is predominantly known for his turf offspring, he has also produced some notable main track winners. Barbaro won the Holy Bull in convincing fashion on a track that you could have done the backstroke on. With Carson City on the dam's side, should the track come up sloppy on Derby day, this horse becomes my number one pick. Big contender either way. I will be anxious to see his next and probably final prep race, maybe the Wood Memorial. It's also worth noting here that jockey Edgar Prado is slated to ride both Barbaro and First Samurai (who barring unforeseen circumstances may be one of the race favourites). The time will come when Prado has to choose which mount to keep, and it bears watching to see which horse he chooses.

BLUEGRASS CAT
Sire - Storm Cat
Dam - She's A Winner (A.P. Indy)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Todd Pletcher
JOCKEY - John Velazquez

RECORD - 6 (4-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $237,980

LAST RACES
3/18/06 - Tampa Bay Derby (G3) 2nd
2/18/06 - Sam F. Davis Stakes 1st

Bluegrass Cat has Storm Cat as his sire, and you can't ask for much better than that. Throw A.P. Indy into the mix, and it just gets better. However, he's lightly raced, and I'll have to see a bit more from him, before making any judgements. He has won at 1 1/8 miles, and I don't see any problem with the additional furlong.

BOB AND JOHN
Sire - Seeking The Gold
Dam - Minister's Melody (Deputy Minister)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Bob Baffert
JOCKEY - Victor Espinoza

RECORD - 8 (3-1-3)
GRADED EARNINGS - $140,373

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - San Felipe (G2) 3rd
02/04/06 - Sham (G3) 1st
01/20/06 - Allowance Race 1st
12/17/05 - Hollywood Futurity (G1) 3rd

If I were forced to make one choice right now, Bob and John would be it. There are so many things to love about this horse, not the least of which is the Bob Baffert angle. Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem....all Baffert success stories. And all of them so close to the Triple Crown Holy Grail. Add Victor Espinoza into the mix, who rode War Emblem to impressive wins in both the 2002 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and you have a winning combination. His sire Seeking The Gold has produced five champions and six millionaires. Bob and John is beautiful to look at and has powerful hindquarters, which is something I look for. He has won at 1 1/8 miles and I don't foresee distance being a problem. As of right now, this horse is my top pick and I am anxiously awaiting his next start prior to the Derby. If I know Bob Baffert, he will have this horse peaking at just the right moment. I hate to be premature, but I'm even thinking Triple Crown. Did I mention the Bob Baffert connection?

BROTHER DEREK
Sire - Benchmark
Dam - Miss Soft Cell (Siyah Kalem)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Dan Hendricks
JOCKEY - Alex Solis

RECORD - 7(5-0-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $664,980

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Santa Catalina (G2) 1st (in 1:41.96)
01/14/06 - San Rafael (G2) 1st
12/17/05 - Hollywood Futurity (G1) 1st

When you look at Brother Derek's record and earnings, it's pretty hard not to like him. But I don't. He has won his last three races, including the G1 Hollywood Futurity. He is one of only two G1 winners in the field. The time he put forth in winning the Santa Catalina is outstanding. His sire Benchmark is a son of Alydar. He has won at 1 1/16 with ease. He has outstanding workouts. But my concern is how long can this form last? The Derby is still seven weeks away and this horse has already been in peak form for more than three months with another race to go prior to the Derby. I have no doubt that he will be the raceday favourite, which is another reason for me not to bet him. Historically, the favourites do not do well on Derby day. But perhaps he IS a super horse, and will prove me wrong. That wouldn't bother me a bit, as I love to watch history in the making.

Okay, five down and eight to go. I am going to continue this in another post...and give my fingers a break for a few minutes.

 

[Pinababy69]

KENTUCKY DERBY (Cont'd)

CAUSE TO BELIEVE
Sire - Maria's Mon
Dam - Imaginary Cat (Storm Cat)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Jerry Hollendorfer
JOCKEY - Russell Baze

RECORD - 9(6-3-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $137,500

LAST RACES
03/11/06 - California Derby 1st (1 1/16 1:41.07)
01/29/06 - El Camino Real (G3) 1st

Cause To Believe was originally purchased for the paltry sum of $50,000 which is hard to believe. His sire, Maria's Mon, had two Grade 1 wins at the age of two and also sired the 2002 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos. Cause To Believe's time in winning the California Derby is phenomenal, irregardless of it being a graded race or not. He has won easily at 1 1/16 miles and with his breeding, distance should pose no problem. I want to see one more race before I decide, but this one is a definite possibility and maybe with a decent price attached. Dependent on his next performance, I would definitely be throwing him into my exotic tickets.

CORINTHIAN
Sire - Pulpit
Multiply (Easy Goer)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - James Jerkens
JOCKEY - Javier Castellano

RECORD - 4(2-1-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $33,000

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) Finished 1st, placed 3rd for interference
02/06/06 - Allowance

Some horses are just bad actors, and this guy is one of them. He can't behave in the starting gate, and he can't behave on the track. He did win the Fountain of Youth, but was promptly disqualified because of his antics. None of this bodes well for him, as the excitement and noise of Churchill Downs on Derby day has been known to upset the calmest of horses. A throwout for me.

FIRST SAMURAI
Sire - Giant's Causeway
Dam - Freddie Frisson (Dixieland Band)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid)
​

TRAINER - Frank Brothers
JOCKEY - Edgar Prado

RECORD - 7(5-1-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $834,900

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) finished 2nd, placed 1st
02/04/06 - Hutcheson (G2) 2nd
10/29/05 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile (G1) 3rd

First Samurai is one of only two horses to have won a Grade 1 event, and he has won two of them, the Champagne and the Hopeful, both in 2005. He's already close to the million dollar mark in earnings, and based solely on those criteria looks like the class of the field. However, it seems that his top performances came last year and one has to wonder where he is in his form cycle? On the upside or the down? This is Edgar Prado's other mount, and as mentioned in the comments about Barbaro, I am waiting to see which he chooses. I think that will tell us alot. And truthfully, I like Barbaro much better than this horse. First Samurai came 3rd in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile behind Stevie Wonderboy (a scratch for the Derby) and Henny Hughes (he hasn't even raced this year). Maybe it was some bad karma on the track that day, but I'm steering clear of this one.

FLASHY BULL
Sire - Holy Bull
Dam - Iridescence (Mt. Livermore)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Kiaran McLaughlin
JOCKEY - Rafael Bejarano

RECORD - 8(1-4-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - ?

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) finished 3rd, placed 2nd

I included Flashy Bull in this list even though he wasn't one of the top 12 choices on the official Kentucky Derby website. This is my wildcard horse. He did manage a third place finish (moved to 2nd) in the Fountain of Youth, but was badly interfered with by Corinthian (the eventual disqualified winner). In circumstances such as those, there is no way to tell what the outcome may have been. With his breeding, 1 1/4 miles should be no problem. He is scheduled to run next in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on April 1st, and we should have a better grasp then of what he's capable of. If I could pick a horse on looks alone, he would be it. And with Holy Bull as his sire, I think he deserves at least some small consideration.

HENNY HUGHES
Sire - Hennessy
Dam - Meadow Flyer (Meadowlake)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Saaed bin Suroor
JOCKEY - ?

RECORD - 6(3-3-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $558,000

LAST RACES
10/29/05 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile (G1) 2nd
10/08/05 - Champagne (G1) 2nd

Henny Hughes is bred top and bottom for pure speed and has not won a race at a distance over six furlongs. Truly, I don't even know he managed to come second in the BC Juvenile and the Champagne. I don't care that he's made over half a million, this horse has not even raced in five months, nor are there any published workouts for him. He is currently stabled over in the UAE and is slated to run in a Grade 1 event on March 25th. Good luck to him, I wouldn't bet him with Monopoly money.

Only three more to go.....can my fingers make it?

 

[Pinababy69]

KENTUCKY DERBY (Last Part)

KEYED ENTRY
Sire - Honour and Glory
Dam - Avaknowsthecode (Cryptoclearance)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Todd Pletcher
JOCKEY - John Velazquez

RECORD - 4(3-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $130,000

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - Gotham (G3) 2nd
02/04/06 - Hutcheson (G2) 1st

This is a hard one to call. The sire, Honour and Glory, was known primarily as a miler, and Keyed Entry himself hasn't won at a distance longer than 7 1/2 furlongs. However, he does have Cryptoclearance on his dam's side, and that translates to stamina. This is the second of two entries that Todd Pletcher has, both of them with John Velazquez listed as the jockey. The other is Bluegrass Cat. So once again, I will wait to see which horse John Velazquez opts to go with. I really don't think this horse can get the distance, his next prep should reveal quite a bit more information.

LAWYER RON
Sire - Langfuhr
Dam - Donation (Lord Avie)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Bob Holthus
JOCKEY - John McKee

RECORD - 13(6-1-3)
GRADED EARNINGS - $160,800

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - Rebel (G3) 1st
02/25/06 - Southwest Allowance 1st
01/14/06 - Risen Star (G3) 1st

Things that make you go hmmmmm...... I just cannot make up my mind about this one. If I had a sentimental pick, Lawyer Ron fits the bill due to his Canadian connection. His sire Langfuhr was the 1996 Canadian Sprint Champion, whose specialty was 7 furlong races. I watched him race on more than one occasion at Woodbine, and he was truly amazing. But the Derby is 10 furlongs, not 7. Lawyer Ron has won at 1 1/16 miles, but his style is that of a frontrunner, and besides War Emblem, I can't think of a recent Derby winner who employed that racing tactic. The front is not where you want to be at Churchill Downs going 1 1/4 miles. On the other hand, he does seem to be steadily improving and stranger things have happened. Another one to watch, I am not totally discounting him. His win in the Rebel yesterday was most impressive.

PRIVATE VOW
Sire - Broken Vow
Dam - Smooth As Silk (Deputy Minister)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Steve Asmussen
JOCKEY - Shaun Bridgmohan

RECORD - 6(4-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $317,888

LAST RACES
11/26/05 - Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) 1st

There's not alot to go on here. Private Vow hasn't raced in four months. He is scheduled to race in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby on April 15th, but I cannot see any horse winning the Kentucky Derby with only one race in five months under his belt. I just don't think he can possibly be fit enough to contend. I guess the Arkansas Derby will tell the tale. On the upside, he is bred for distance, and his sire is a son of Unbridled.

And so there we have it, some of the top contenders for this year's Run For The Roses. We still have a way to go before the field is finalized and opening odds are posted. There will probably be more horses than those I've listed here, and some of the ones I have profiled may not run. Here is a list of 6 of the more high profile upcoming prep races if anyone is interested in keeping up to date.

Florida Derby (G1) - April 1st, Gulfstream Park
Illinois Derby (G2) - April 8th, Hawthorne
Santa Anita Derby (G1) - April 8th, Santa Anita Park
Wood Memorial (G1) - April 8th, Aqueduct
Bluegrass Stakes (G1) - April 15th, Keeneland
Arkansas Derby (G2) - April 15th, Oaklawn Park

This has been quite an undertaking. JohnSteed, I don't know how you do it, simply amazing. It should be alot of fun for me to come back to these original posts after May 6th and see how far off I was and how much crow I have to eat. Given my present run of luck (or lack of), a good betting strategy may be to take every horse I've tossed, and box them on an exotic ticket, lol. Best of luck to all!!

 

[johnsteed]

***

Great list Pinababy69!​

:notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy​

I knew absolutely nothing about horse racing... up until today. I love that 4-0 record by "Barbaro" (and that $150,000 graded earnings) . I know it's a horse, but it reminds me of Michael Jordan. That's a start.

I'd like to expand my portfolio this present year, and I'm thinking of doing more sportsbetting (as opposed to getting rocked by slots again). Actually, I've never really gone that route and I'm unsure as to why I never have. I've got the NBA, NHL, and MLB down (and I suppose tennis as well) in terms of knowing everything about the sport (or as much as I possibly can), and I've been looking to expand to horseracing and NFL football. Thanks for the push (and the links).

Wonderful work!

Steed

***

 

[Pinababy69]

Thank you Mr. Steed!! I knew I could count on you to actually read what I wrote, lol. Horseracing is a wonderful, exciting sport. And come closer to raceday, I will probably post a poll for people to vote on their choices. Should be interesting to see how bad we really are.

Right back at ya JohnSteed. :notworthy

 

[mrracetrack]

Great Thread Pina!

Very informative, Pina... and a good read.

I'll add a few thoughts on the Derby as it gets closer.

A lot of horses not highly thought of at this time, will win a few races in the next few weeks, and that will add a bit of interest to the mix.

About 2 weeks prior to the Derby, things will be a bit clearer.

 

[winbig]

Just don't count out the longshots....can't forget what happened not too long ago

 

[Pinababy69]

Very informative, Pina... and a good read.

I'll add a few thoughts on the Derby as it gets closer.

A lot of horses not highly thought of at this time, will win a few races in the next few weeks, and that will add a bit of interest to the mix.

About 2 weeks prior to the Derby, things will be a bit clearer.

Thank You!!!! I wasn't even sure if anyone would actually read this, lol. I am really looking forward to any comments or additions you have Mrracetrack. You are absolutely right that things could change drastically in the next few weeks, I figure by Mid April, we should know alot more. The three races I will really be watching are the Florida Derby on April 1st and the Wood Memorial and SA Derby on April 8th. I have a feeling that both Barbaro and Flashy Bull may run in the Florida Derby or the Wood. That Flashy Bull really has my interest piqued, and I'd like to see a race from him. And Barbaro is definitely one of my choices. You would probably know better than I would (I'd have to look it up), but historically, I don't think that Wood Memorial winners have fared all that well in the Derby, have they? So while I'm not looking for a win necessarily from either, I would like to see a good solid tightener with good form from both of them. And as of right now, Bob and John would be my pick, so I'll be watching the Santa Anita Derby on the 8th, I think that's where Baffert will run him. It will be interesting to see if Baffert puts his other horse Point Determined in the SA Derby as well. He ran on the weekend and came 2nd I believe (don't quote me, and I can't remember the race, maybe the San Felipe or the Rebel)? One or the other. I'll have to do some research on Point Determined, I know nothing about him, but I hate to overlook another Baffert horse. And does he share any bloodlines with Point Given? The other horse I think deserves some consideration is Cause To Believe, who also may run in the SA Derby. That time (1:41) in the California Derby really caught my eye, as does his sire. Not sure if he can handle the G1 company, I guess we'll find out. I always say if a horse can run, and has the heart, he doesn't know what company he's running in, he just runs. Pretty simple I know, lol.

I'd love for you to add any additional horses or insights you have Mrracetrack, and thanks again for the compliments. Coming from you, high praise indeed. And feel free to point out any inaccuracies I may have posted as well, this was a long one, lol.

Winbig, I never forget the longshots. Giacomo last year And he was also a son of Holy Bull, which is maybe why Flashy Bull caught my interest this year. And traditionally, favourites in the Derby do not do well. I always look for value and a decent price, and seldom bet favourites.

 

[Daffy]

Good work!!!

I like the looks of BROTHER DEREK. Long and lean...I believe the "biggies" are all distance/endurance races. Also the Hollywood Futurity win looks good on a resume'.

Too bad about CORINTHIAN...that's a good-looking horse...maybe he'll mature into something.


D~~~~

 

[mrracetrack]

Latest Rankings...

These are the March 20th rankings of 3year olds posted by the NTRA...

Three-Year-Old Poll
HORSE A-S STS-1-2-3 PTS PVS PROBABLE NEXT START

1. Brother Derek (13) 3-C 2-2-0-0 165 1 4/8 Santa Anita Derby

2. Lawyer Ron (3) 3-C 3-3-0-0 152 3 4/15 Arkansas Derby

3. A.P. Warrior 3-C 2-1-0-0 87 - 4/8 Santa Anita Derby

4. Barbaro 3-C 2-2-0-0 83 5 4/1 Florida Derby

5. First Samurai 3-C 2-1-1-0 82 4 4/15 Toyota Blue Grass

6. Cause to Believe (1) 3-C 3-2-1-0 64 10 4/8 Illinois Derby

7. Corinthian 3-C 2-1-0-1 61 6 4/8 Wood Memorial

8. Bluegrass Cat 3-C 2-1-1-0 60 2 Undecided

9. Keyed Entry 3-C 3-2-1-0 37 8 4/8 Wood Memorial

10. Point Determined 3-C 4-2-2-0 34 - Undecided ​

Age-Sex: C-colt, G-gelding, F-filly.
Other Horses Receiving Votes: Bob and John-28, Balance-18, Like Now-17, Deputy Glitters-12, Flashy Bull-8, Strong Contender-6, Red Raymond-5, Sharp Humor-4, Too Much Bling-4, Fast Parade-3, Sunriver-3, Laity-2.

 

[mrracetrack]

The Wood Memorial...

Pina asked:

You would probably know better than I would (I'd have to look it up), but historically, I don't think that Wood Memorial winners have fared all that well in the Derby, have they?

LOL... I had no idea, Pina... so I was happy to look it up...

This is what I found:

Stats from the Wood Memorial:

11 Wood Memorial winners have won the Kentucky Derby, the most recent being Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000

7 horses that have finished 2nd or 3rd in the Wood Memorial went on to win the KY.Derby.

In 2005, Bellamy Road was a 17 length winner in the Wood, and based on that awesome win, went off as the 5-2 favorite in the KY.Derby, where he tired and finished 7th, to 50-1 long shot Giacomo.

Pina also inquired about:

I'll have to do some research on Point Determined, I know nothing about him, but I hate to overlook another Baffert horse. And does he share any bloodlines with Point Given?

He sure does...

POINT DETERMINED
Owned by... C B Robert B. & Beverly J. Lewis... trained by Bob Baffert... breeding... Point Given-Merengue

 

[Pinababy69]

Thank you Mrracetrack. That list of rankings is great! I'm disappointed to see Bob and John all the way down there at #11, but am happy to see Barbaro at #4 and Cause To Believe at #6. As you said before though, with so many prep races still to come, the overall picture is likely to change. I still see Brother Derek being the raceday favourite, I'll have to make sure and watch the SA Derby as stats and charts are great, but nothing compares to actually watching a horse run. Maybe I'll hop the private jet to California and see what's what.

And thanks for the stats on the Wood, the winners have actually fared a bit better than what I thought. I'm more likely to be watching who finishes in the top three or four though. I may go and put some data together on the more prestigious of the upcoming prep races, as to which races have produced the most winners etc.

And Point Determined is a son of Point Given? And owned by the Lewises? And trained by Baffert? All that's missing is Gary Stevens (he did ride Point Given didn't he, lol)? And how in the hell did I miss A.P. Warrior? Back to the research lab for me, these two absolutely have to be included in the overall picture.

You know what's sad for me is that there is no Gary Stevens, Pat Day or Jerry Bailey this year. All of them retired in one year. The end of an era for sure. I had just been going to post that it was too bad young Jeremy Rose didn't have a Derby mount this year, and what a shame this was. However, I thought I'd better go take a quick gander and lo and behold, Nick Zito has a horse named Great Point (2nd in the Holy Bull to Barbaro and another son of Point Given!!) possibly pointed towards the Derby, and Jeremy Rose is his jockey. I've been watching that kid for a while now, and he has talent on top of talent. That ride on Afleet Alex last year in the Preakness still amazes me, how the horse stayed on his feet, and how JR stayed on his back defies logic. So many memorable Derby moments, I sure hope that this year's race provides some history as well. Thanks for the input Mrracetrack, keep it coming!!

 

[mrracetrack]

UPDATED MARCH 24th...

Who's Hot, Who's Not​

WHO'S HOT: There were wholesale changes to the top 25. Although there are only two newcomers - Like Now and Red Raymond - several horses either moved way up or way down because of their performances last weekend. Like Now, the winner of the Gotham Stakes, and Red Raymond, who was second in the Rebel Stakes, are both 50-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper. Lawyer Ron, 20-1 a week ago, is now the second choice at 6-1 following his victory in the Rebel. A. P. Warrior, the San Felipe winner, also made a big move forward. He is now 15-1 after being 60-1 last week.

WHO'S NOT: Corinthian was dropped from the list because of a minor fracture that will force him to miss the rest of the Triple Crown series. Refinery was dropped after a fifth-place finish in the San Felipe. Achilles of Troy, fifth in the Gotham as the favorite, is now 40-1 after being 15-1 last week. Other horses whose prices were raised significantly by Watchmaker following last week's races were Keyed Entry (30-1 from 15-1) and Private Vow (40-1 from 15-1).

ON THE BUBBLE: Greeley's Legacy, who was fourth in the Gotham, and Racketeer, who was fourth in the San Felipe, are the next in line to move onto the list, pending the results of races this weekend in Kentucky and Dubai.

 

[Pinababy69]

Thanks for the info/update Mrracetrack. I've been working on a few different things this past week, and haven't been able to do the additional research that I wanted to do. But I am off to do that now. I am going to add profiles for three more horses - Point Determined, A.P. Warrior and Great Point (this one just on his breeding alone deserves consideration).

I'm happy to see that some of the horses I discounted at the start, have lived up to my non-expectations (is that a phrase?). While I don't like seeing any horse suffer an injury, I am not sorry to see Corinthian scratched. The last thing we want is an erratic and unpredictable horse running in a big field of 20 or more horses, with 100,000 plus people screaming in the background. Recipe for disaster if you ask me. This race is dangerous enough just given the size of the field, and the jockeying for position that goes on. I'm also not surprised to see Achilles of Troy, Keyed Entry and Private Vow become even bigger longshots. I really think that by a week or two before the race I won't have a problem picking a horse, and perhaps an exotic ticket or two. I hope that you also are going to post your picks. And I had really been hoping that more people may be into this, but so far it looks like you and me, lol. Which is okey dokey too. This is going to be interesting.

 

[Pinababy69]

3 More To Consider

A.P. WARRIOR
Sire - A.P. Indy
Dam - Warrior Queen (Quiet American)
Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - John Shirreffs
JOCKEY - Corey Nakatani (Garrett Gomez?)

RECORD - 7(3-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $233,185

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - San Felipe Stakes (G2) 1st (1 1/16 1:42.4)
01/29/06 - El Camino Real (G3) Out of the money

I knew nothing about this horse except that with A.P. Indy as his sire, I wanted to know more. He was apparently an unruly two year old (not all that uncommon in this game), but the general consensus seems to be that he is starting to come into his own and is learning how to run (yes horses have to be taught how to run and to win). I decided to take a look at his win in the San Felipe, and saw things I both liked and disliked. Once he got the lead, he never relinquished it. Point Determined tried to sneak by him on the inside just before the wire, but A.P. Warrior pinned his ears and dug in. This shows some character and determination. The downside of this to me is that the San Felipe was only 1 1/16 miles and I'm not entirely convinced that 1 1/4 miles is within this one's reach. With A.P. Indy as his sire, it shouldn't be a problem, but I wanna see one more. His next start is slated to be the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 8th. I will definitely be watching.

GREAT POINT
Sire - Point Given
Dam - Crafty Queen (Crafty Prospector)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Nick Zito
JOCKEY - Jeremy Rose

RECORD - 6(2-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $30,454

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) 10th (last)
02/04/06 - Holy Bull Stakes (G3) 2nd

I am such a huge fan of Point Given, that I simply cannot overlook any of his offspring. So once again, I decided to watch race replays of both the Fountain of Youth and the Holy Bull. All I can say to the Holy Bull is WOW!!! Barbaro was the eventual winner, once he got the lead, he never looked back. But Great Point was at least 20 lengths out and dead last before they hit the final turn for home. I watched the replay three times and I still can't figure out where he even came from. All I know is that when they started moving down the stretch, he was charging like a freight train on the outside. Given another 1/16 of a mile to work with, I am totally convinced he would have won this race. To put things in perspective though, the track was like soup that day, and Great Point had some pretty decent fractions to run at (good contested pace upfront). So I then moved on to the Fountain of Youth replay, where Great Point was 10th and last, and never even got so much as a call in the race. What happened? I have no idea....maybe he bounced (oftentimes happens after a huge effort in a previous race), maybe he didn't feel well that day, maybe the move up in company from a G3 to a G2 was more than he could handle. And the fractions in that race were painfully slow IMO, 23.8, 48.3, 1:12.3, 1:36...with a finishing time of 1:49 flat for the 1 1/8 miles. So he really had nothing to run at, although I feel it's more than that. I can't throw out that Holy Bull performance though, and I'm really hoping to see this once bounce back. I love the Nick Zito/Jeremy Rose angle as well.

POINT DETERMINED
Sire - Point Given
Dam - Merengue (Broad Brush)

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) ​

TRAINER - Bob Baffert
JOCKEY - Garrett Gomez

RECORD - 5(2-2-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $50,000

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - San Felipe Stakes (G2) 2nd

Yet another son of Point Given, and Baffert's "other" horse. Point Determined was purchased for the sum of $290,000 as a yearling. He hasn't won at a distance longer than 1 1/16 miles, but given his breeding, this is absolutely not a problem. I watched a replay of the San Felipe (more on that later) where Point Determined finished a very game 2nd to A.P. Warrior. He had post position number one that day and was stuck down along the inside for the whole race (not an optimum place to be dependent on how the track was playing). A.P. Warrior definitely had the advantage with a clean outside trip. Point Determined never gave up though, and once he did manage to find some racing room, he made a bold move along the inside to actually poke a nose in front for a brief moment. However, A.P. Warrior pinned his ears, dug in his heels and regained the advantage. I still have to wonder though had Point Determined had a more advantageous race/starting position, if the outcome may have been different? Very impressive race overall, and I think that added distance can only help this horse in the long run. Watching this one really closely to see how his next race pans out. I was also a little disappointed to see that the Churchill Downs handicapper has not even included this one in his Top 10....I think that's a mistake, but then again, what do I know?

 

[Pinababy69]

Point Given (What A Horse)!!

I've been rambling on about Point Given, and I guess it's pretty obvious that he's a favourite of mine. This is his first crop of three year olds running this year, and I am dying with anticipation to see if he is going to be as great a sire as he was a racehorse. This short bio below was taken directly from the Three Chimneys farm website, where Point Given currently stands stud.

The most dominating presence at the races in 2001 was Point Given. Nationally, globally, and historically, he towered over his competitors in the manner of the great ones.

On the racecourse, Point Given was a dual Classic winner, champion 3 year old, and Horse of the Year. He earned $3,968,500 with nine wins and three seconds in 13 career starts.

At 2, he was nosed out for the two year old crown (in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile), but he did win two Graded stakes, including the Hollywood Futurity-G1. At 3, his record of six wins in seven starts in six Grade I races earned him the overall championship.

His Timeform rating that year of 133 was the highest for any American racehorse, and he was awarded the ultimate honor-becoming the 11th three year old to earn the gold Eclipse Award, as Horse of the Year.

Historically, Point Given casts an even more imposing shadow. He won the "Test of Champions," the Classic Belmont Stakes, by over 12 lengths. His time of 2:26 2/5 is the fourth fastest Belmont on record, faster than the last two Triple Crown winners, immortals Affirmed and Seattle Slew, and significantly faster than the last three Belmont winners, Afleet Alex, Birdstone, and Empire Maker.

His feat of winning the Preakness, Belmont, and Travers has been accomplished just four other times in the last 103 years*by Hall of Fame members Man o' War, Whirlaway, Native Dancer and Damascus.

Daily Racing Form's esteemed Joe Hirsch was never prone to hyperbole. Upon the announced retirement of Point Given, he wrote: "We were fortunate to have him as long as we did, and we will treasure the rich memories he left us."

A superior physical specimen with scope, grace and a dominant presence, Point Given is by Classic-winning champion Thunder Gulch, out of Broodmare of the Year Turko's Turn. America's Leading Sire with just three crops racing, Thunder Gulch has emerged as a leading source of Classic horses worldwide.

RACE RECORD

AGE 2

Won
Hollywood Futurity-G1
Kentucky Cup Juvenile-G3

2nd
Breeders' Cup Juvenile-G1
by a nose, to the champion
Champagne S.-G1

AGE 3

Won

Preakness S.-G1
Belmont S.-G1
2:26 2/5, 4th fastest in history
Travers S.-G1
117 Beyer, best of year for 3yo colt
Haskell Invitational H.-G1
Santa Anita Derby-G1
San Felipe S.-G1


Sadly, he was retired after his three year old season due to a tendon injury. In his career, he had 13 starts and finished first 9 times and second 3 times, accumulating total earnings of $3,968,500. The one race he couldn't win was the Kentucky Derby. There's no telling what he could have done if he had been able to continue racing. My thoughts are that he would have been remembered as one of the truly great ones (in my mind he is anyway, lol). Can ya tell?

Point Given was trained by Bob Baffert, and Point Given's son Point Determined is also trained by Bob Baffert this year. I would love nothing better than to see his son go on and accomplish what he wasn't able to do. Fate maybe?

 

[mrracetrack]

Current Odds

These are the current odds offered by Pinnacle Sports (as of 3/28/06)

Kentucky Derby
Odds To Win
Sat May 6th​

101 First Samurai +1498
102 Bluegrass Cat +1833
103 Brother Derek +810
104 Barbaro +1653
105 Achilles of Troy +3019
106 Private Vow +4065
107 Keyed Entry +1749
108 Lawyer Ron +917
109 Bob And John +1819
112 Sweetnorthernsaint +2614
114 Point Determined +2068
116 Strong Contender +1292
117 Great Point +5000
118 Music School +10000
119 A.P. Warrior +1157
121 Flashy Bull +6000
122 Itsallboutthechase +10000
123 My Golden Song +6500
124 Noonmark +10000
125 Steppenwolfer +4249
127 High Cotton +6000
129 Tatsuji +12500
134 Really Indian +9000
136 Dr. Pleasure +10000
137 Sacred Light +2339
138 Sunriver +3003
139 Cause To Believe +2436
140 Discreet Cat +711
141 Showing Up +2568
142 Deputy Glitters +5000
143 Like Now +6000
144 With a City +2814
145 Seaside Retreat +4109

 

[Pinababy69]

So...as of now, their top three are Discreet Cat, Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron. I sort of figured the last two would be there....did Discreet Cat do something over the weekend I don't know about? I know there were some prep races over the weekend, and I haven't had one second to look up what happened in them, guess I'll have to get on that.

Nice to see that Point Determined and Great Point are at least included in that list, keep my hopes alive. And Bob and John's next race will tell the tale for me.

Mrracetrack, I'll be back later with some links to some video feeds....not sure if you saw Lawyer Ron's performance in the Rebel? If not, I sure would appreciate you watching it and letting me know if you see the same things I see in him. I gotta dig up the link to it....

Thanks for the odds, a good start. And to the people who thanked me/added rep........thanks!!!

 

[Simmo!]

Might have to keep my eye on this one. I used to "do the horses" (smalltime) back in the mid-90s when i took a year out. A horse called Ballasecret was my fave...they'd feed it up, let it wobble home, then send it flying in at a low weight in the next handicap at 40-1 If you could predict when they hid its feed, you could be quids in. Thinking about it, it may have been the world's first bullemic horse. Ah well...long gone along with my wad.

It was also the era of "Lochsong" - a horse that was just incredible to watch over 6f (or was it 5f?). Frankie Dettori just had to mount it (in a nice way!)...could have had his tea and a sandwich while he was up there for all he had to do. Not that he'd have had time mind! It just lifted off the ground and romped away with every Group 1 going. I'm sure it either had wheels attached to the underbelly or was a new breed of "hover-horse"!

Ah well...May 6th...its in my diary

Oh and here's a tip I learned from bad experience: never back a grey! Its more likely an old van they forgot to paint (so especially dont back it over fences!).

 

[mrracetrack]

Simmo posted:

Oh and here's a tip I learned from bad experience: never back a grey! Its more likely an old van they forgot to paint (so especially dont back it over fences!).

Don't tell that to the people that owned Kentucky Derby Winner Spectacular Bid...

SPECTACULAR BID (USA) grey. H, 30 Starts, 26 Wins, 2 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: $2,781,608

And for Pina... a "Canadian Grey"... ADMIRALS EXPRESS... who has won more than $1,000,000... and has 60 wins in his career! (most at Woodbine & Mohawk raceways)

Here is a link to an "ALL GREY HORSE" website...

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

 

[Simmo!]

Don't tell that to the people that owned Kentucky Derby Winner Spectacular Bid...

SPECTACULAR BID (USA) grey. H, 30 Starts, 26 Wins, 2 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: $2,781,608

can't argue those stats - awesome.

But its possible Spectacular Bid was a chestnut and had simply been left out in the rain overnight! Ok...unlikley i know, but you have to consider all your options

 

[Pinababy69]

Cute Simmo.....always consider all possibilities, lol.

 

[chuchu59]

Simmo posted:



Don't tell that to the people that owned Kentucky Derby Winner Spectacular Bid...

SPECTACULAR BID (USA) grey. H, 30 Starts, 26 Wins, 2 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: $2,781,608

And for Pina... a "Canadian Grey"... ADMIRALS EXPRESS... who has won more than $1,000,000... and has 60 wins in his career! (most at Woodbine & Mohawk raceways)

Here is a link to an "ALL GREY HORSE" website...

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

26 Wins? So which is better, Spec Bid or the great Cigar?

 

[mrracetrack]

Spectacular Bid or Cigar??

Chuchu59 asked:

26 Wins? So which is better, Spec Bid or the great Cigar?

Well... it really is hard to compare them, as the money earned catagory is rather misleading due to the almost 20 year difference, with purse values going up so much in the 90's when Cigar was racing.

Here is a bio on each one, obviously each was quite impressive. I've highlighted in red the one stat that made my choice of which was best an easy one.

Cigar:

Cigar, born April 18, 1990 at Country Life Farm near Bel Air, Maryland, is a Hall of Fame thoroughbred racehorse.

A product of Maryland's oldest thoroughbred breeding farm, Cigar was the grandson of The Minstrel who was the son of the greatest sire of the second half of the 20th century, Northern Dancer. Out of the mare Solar Slew, who in turn was a daughter of the 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, Cigar had the credentials to become a great race horse but it took a few years for his greatness to materialize.

Cigar did not race as a two year old and under trainer Alex Hassinger, he made an unsuccessful debut in early 1993 in a six furlong (1,207 m) race on a dirt track in California. After gaining his first win a few months later, his trainer switched him to racing on grass but the horse proved mediocre at best. The following year, his owner had Cigar shipped to an east-coast trainer, Bill Mott who gave the horse the first half of the year off, only bringing him back to racing in July. After more disappointing results it was decided to give the horse one more try racing on dirt and on his first time back, Cigar made an astonishing about face, winning easily against quality competition.

For the following year's racing season, Cigar proved to be the best horse in North America, winning all ten major races he entered under jockey Jerry Bailey including the Pimlico Special. Cigar capped off the year with an October victory in the $3 million U.S. Breeders' Cup Classic while setting a stakes record of 1:59.58 for the 1 1/4 mile (2012 m) distance. That year, Cigar was voted 1995 Champion Older Male and the most prestigious honor of all, Horse of the Year.

In 1996, Cigar continued his winning ways including traveling more than 6,000 miles (1000 km) to earn a victory in the inaugural Dubai World Cup in Dubai, United Arab Emirates with a purse of $5 million. During the season, Cigar matched the accomplishment of the great Triple Crown champion Citation that had stood for almost 50 years by winning his 16th race in a row in the Arlington Citation Challenge. He went on to earn his second straight Champion Older Male and Horse of the Year honors.

Cigar was retired to stud at the end of the 1996 racing season as the richest thoroughbred in history, with earnings of $9,999,815. Ceremonies were held at Madison Square Garden to honor the horse that captured the imagination of racing fans more than any horse since the incomparable Secretariat. Further accolades came when he was named the Racehorse of the Decade of the 1990s, and in 2002 he was inducted in his first year of eligibility into the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame. In the Blood-Horse magazine ranking of the top 100 U.S. thoroughbred champions of the 20th Century, Cigar was ranked #18.

Spectacular Bid:

Post-triple crown racing
Following the Belmont Stakes, Spectacular Bid took two months off to recover from the injury. He returned to racing with hall of fame jockey Bill Shoemaker who would remain his jockey through the remainder of Spectacular Bid's racing career. His first race back was in August of 1979 with a warm-up race at Delaware Park. He blew away the competition, winning by more than 17 lengths and setting a new track record for the mile and 1/16s distance. He followed this up with another win at the Marlboro Cup at Belmont Park, beating both horses he had lost to at the same park just months before. He was supposed to have raced against 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed, but Affirmed's owners had bowed out of the race in reaction to a 133 pound impost assignment to Affirmed.

Spectacular Bid did face off with Affirmed in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Spectacular Bid challenged Affirmed no less than four times during the race, but came up short in the end coming in second to the Triple Crown winner. This would be the last race Spectacular Bid would lose. Spectacular Bid finished off the year with one more race, the Meadowlands Cup, once again setting a new track record at a mile and 1/4. At the end of the year, he was awarded the Eclipse champion 3-year-old colt for the year. His winnings for this year totalled US$1,279,333.

Spectacular Bid's next year in racing as a four-year-old was nothing short of stellar. He started nine races, winning them all for winnings of US$1,117,790. He set four new track records at distances of 7/8ths of a mile, 1 1/4 miles, and twice at 1 1/8 miles. The 1 1/4 mile track record was also an American record. These successes were made despite sometimes staggering imposts in excess of 130 pounds. During his final year he swept the California Strub series and compiled a then-career earnings record of US$2,781,607.

Blood-Horse magazine ranking of the top 20 United States thoroughbred horse racing champions of the 20th Century:

1) Man O' War
2) Secretariat
3) Citation
4) Kelso
5) Count Fleet
6) Dr. Fager
7) Native Dancer
8) Forego
9) Seattle Slew
10) Spectacular Bid
11) Tom Fool
12) Affirmed
13) War Admiral
14) Buckpasser
15) Colin
16) Damascus
17) Round Table
18) Cigar
19) Bold Ruler
20) Swaps

Personally, I would have to agree with the rankings... I feel Spectacular Bid was a better racehorse than Cigar... but BOTH were true champions!

 

[Pinababy69]

Thanks Mrracetrack for answering that, I have had zero time this week for this. Tomorrow is the day I usually spend on this thread, lol. And I agree with your analysis. Winning at many different distances with varying weights, and at different tracks is the mark of a true champion. Lots of horses can run a mile, but not 1/16th further. Some horses can win at their home track, but nowhere else. Obviously Spectacular Bid could win anywhere. One thing I remember that did impress me about Cigar is that he went to the Middle East, won that Dubai Cup, then got shipped back to the US and won again. I really thought taking him to the Dubai was a huge mistake ($6 million or not). So many horses never recover from that race, whether it's the long journey there and back, the climate change, the sandy track, whatever....I was really worried that it would have taken too much out of him and ended his career then. But he came back the same champion he left. Can't remember what his next race was upon his return, but I know he won it.

Both of them awesome horses and both champions.

 

[Pinababy69]

The Florida Derby goes today at 5:40 p.m. EST, and Barbaro is entered and is the morning line favourite at 8-5. He has drawn post position number 10 in the eleven horse field. Barbaro is 4 for 4 lifetime, and this 1 1/8 mile race should be a good test for him. Also entered is Flashy Bull, morning line of 4-1. Another one I was watching just because he is a son of Holy Bull. I'm pretty upset though, I went and checked my tv listings and this race is not being shown up here. Grrrrrrr......I really wish TV networks would devote more airtime to horseracing, especially at this time of year. Makes me wish I still had The Racing Network. Now I will have to wait until the race is over and find a replay to watch.

 

[Pinababy69]

Barbaro Wins The Florida Derby

Barbaro captures Florida Derby

Hallandale, FL (Sports Network) - Barbaro, ridden by Edgar Prado, out- fought Sharp Humor down the stretch to win Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. The win establishes Barbaro as the current favorite for the Kentucky Derby on May 6.

Breaking from post 10 in the 11-horse field, Barbaro broke well and joined Sharp Humor on the lead. Sharp Humor, with Mark Guidry riding, set the pace with Barbaro just off his right shoulder.

Prado allowed Barbaro to begin to edge closer to the leader around the turn for home. At the top of the stretch Sharp Humor held a slight lead with Barbaro to his outside.

It was not until deep stretch that Barbaro took the lead and went on to win by a half-length over Sharp Humor. Sunriver finished third followed by Sam's Ace, Hesanoldsalt, High Blues, Flashy Bull, Charming Image, Saint Augustus, Doc Cheney and Rehoboth.

The time for the 1 1/8 miles was 1:49.01 on a fast track.

Owned by Lael Stables, Barbaro remains undefeated in his five career starts and collects $600,000 with the Florida Derby victory. The colt has earned a total of $849,000. Barbaro is trained by former Olympic equestrian rider Michael Matz.

Barbaro returned $5.20, $3.60 and $2.80. Sharp Humor paid $5.80 and $3.80, and Sunriver paid $3.60 for show.

An important race on the road to the Run for the Roses, the last Florida Derby winner to capture the Kentucky Derby was Monarchos in 2001. In 2003 Empire Maker was second to Funny Cide at Churchill Downs and then won the Belmont Stakes.


So, one of my original picks is looking mighty fine.....although if he IS the favourite come raceday, I doubt very much I would bet him. Sure is hard to ignore an unbeaten horse though. There are still some decent races to come, not the least of which is the Santa Anita Derby next weekend.

 

[mrracetrack]

Pina... just an interesting sidenote to what you posted... the bottom paragraph...

the last Florida Derby winner to capture the Kentucky Derby was Monarchos in 2001. In 2003 Empire Maker was second to Funny Cide at Churchill Downs and then won the Belmont Stakes.

Funny Cide raced today... 3 years after his Derby win in 2003... at Aqueduct, and finished 2nd! Still a classy horse!

5 West Virginia 17.40 8.30 4.70
4 Funny Cide 6.50 3.60
2 Colita 3.10

 

[Pinababy69]

Thanks Mrracetrack...that is interesting. Did you ever notice how few horses who run in and win any of the Triple Crown races actually continue racing after their three year old season is over? It seems that so many get retired to stud duty (not the worst thing in the world I guess, lol) right after the season is over. Capitalizing on the Triple Crown win I guess? Thanks for that though, nice to see a past winner still performing.

And I haven't been able to find a replay of the Florida Derby as yet, not a free one anyway. I want to see the race, as I want to see how much effort Barbaro had to put forth to get the win.

Which reminds me I have to get that link for the Rebel, so you can watch Lawyer Ron's win. Impressed the shit out of me that's for sure. I'll be back.

 

[Pinababy69]

Lawyer Ron in The Rebel

Okay, here we go... I just watched it again. I signed up (it's free) so I can watch all the replays, but I think they let you watch one before they make you sign up. I thought this win was really impressive. The acceleration the horse showed just before the final turn is exactly what I look for in a Derby horse. And he did give him a few cracks of the whip to get him going, but once he picked up speed he kept accelerating. And when he galloped out after, he looked like he could have gone another furlong or two, lol. Maybe I'm seeing things that aren't there, and not really sure what he beat, but he looked good doing it.

And a sidenote....the headline on the website is "Barbaro Earns Hard Fought Florida Derby Victory". It's that hard-fought that worries me. On one hand it shows he knows how to win, and has determination. On the other hand, how much did it take out of him, and is he gonna bounce next race out? He had been off for eight weeks, so with the Derby five weeks away, that would be his second race off the layoff. Hmmmm.....so many things to consider, lol.

Here's the link to the Rebel...

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

 

[Pinababy69]

It was also the era of "Lochsong" - a horse that was just incredible to watch over 6f (or was it 5f?). Frankie Dettori just had to mount it (in a nice way!)...could have had his tea and a sandwich while he was up there for all he had to do. Not that he'd have had time mind! It just lifted off the ground and romped away with every Group 1 going. I'm sure it either had wheels attached to the underbelly or was a new breed of "hover-horse"!

Ah well...May 6th...its in my diary

Funny you should mention Frankie Dettori (awesome jockey btw) Simmo. I just watched a replay of the UAE Derby from last weekend, in which Discreet Cat was the winner. You wanna talk about him having time for a smoke and a drink (okay tea and a sandwich, lol), this victory looked like a walk in the park. Frankie was just along for the ride, lol. Wonder if he'll come over here to ride him in the Derby? He looked amazing, but I have a problem betting horses that have shipped from overseas, and especially from the Middle East. They're nervous animals, and that long flight, and the change in climate and running surfaces often takes a huge toll on them. Would have liked to have seen a race like that over here.

 

[mrracetrack]

Florida Derby

Barbaro defeats Sharp Humor by a
half-length in Saturday's Grade 1
Florida Derby. He will now move
on to Louisville undefeated.

BARBARO bobbled and bumped with CHARMING IMAGE at the start, moved up to prompt the pace outside SHARP HUMOR, made a run to reach near even terms for command midway of the far turn, then wore that rival down in a long drive to be up late. SHARP HUMOR quickly moved to fore, made the pace along the rail into the far turn, responded when challenged by BARBARO and continued on gamely while unable to resist that rival off late.

Posted by Pina...

And a sidenote....the headline on the website is "Barbaro Earns Hard Fought Florida Derby Victory". It's that hard-fought that worries me. On one hand it shows he knows how to win, and has determination. On the other hand, how much did it take out of him, and is he gonna bounce next race out? He had been off for eight weeks, so with the Derby five weeks away, that would be his second race off the layoff.

This was a good tightener for Barbaro... he got bumped at the start (which in a large Derby field is likely to happen to a few horses) he was tested by a horse today, and dug in to win... he gained some good experience in this race... the only question will be can he maintain his sharpness over the next 5 weeks.

Thanks for the link to the replay of the Lawyer Ron race, Pina.

I agree with you that it was a very impressive race, although the competition he faced was far less than he will have in the KY.Derby... but the way he won was very similiar to the way he will need to race in the Derby... and that style seems to fit him well. He had plenty left at the finish... and looks like he should easily handle the extra distance of the Derby.

Although with 5 weeks remaining before the Derby... and a few prep races still to come... I do not have a strong opinion yet on who I like to win... but both Lawyer Ron and Barbaro have certainly been impressive... and will be added to my "mental list" I'll be making over the next few weeks to try and come up with the Derby Winner!

 

[mrracetrack]

Remaining Prep Races

These are the major KY Derby prep races that remain:

4/8 SA Santa Anita Derby-G1 1 1/8m
4/8 Haw Illinois Derby-G2 1 1/8m
4/8 Aqu Wood Memorial-G1 1 1/8m
4/15 OP Arkansas Derby-G2 1 1/8m
4/15 Kee Blue Grass Stakes-G1 1 1/8m
4/22 Kee Lexington Stakes-G2 1 1/16m
4/29 Aqu Withers Stakes-G3 1m
4/29 CD Derby Trial-G3 1m


The results of the Wood Memorial and the Arkansas Derby will make the Derby focus a lot clearer.

 

[Pinababy69]

Thanks Mrracetrack!! I absolutely agree with you. At least the Wood Memorial is on TV here this weekend. Nothing like watching a race live...although once I got feeling a bit better on the weekend, I spent a couple of hours watching replays of the last four or five races of all the contenders, trying to get a feel for them.

That victory in the FD for Barbaro was indeed hard-fought....it was a battle all the way, and pretty decent fractions too (if I remember, they're all becoming a blur, lol). No doubt a character builder, and the horse looks tough. Taking nothing from Sharp Humour either, hell of a race he put forth. I'll be keeping an eye out for Barbaro's next published work as well, sometimes an indicator (length, time, B or H). If you haven't signed up for that Kentucky Derby 2006 site, it's worth it just for the replays.

This weekend and next will be really interesting, that's for sure.

 

[mrracetrack]

Santa Anita Derby Preview...

HORSE RACING

Five rivals take shot at Brother Derek
COLT'S BLAZING WORKOUT LEAVES JOCKEY 'AMAZED'
By Beth Harris
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Santa Anita Derby

ARCADIA, Calif. - Brother Derek was installed as the 3-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday's $750,000 Santa Anita Derby, where only five other 3-year-old colts will challenge him.

Brother Derek was assigned the No. 2 post at yesterday's draw. He has won five of seven career starts, including three in a row.

"You always hope to get a horse that just keeps improving. Each week, each race, he's done that," trainer Dan Hendricks said.

A victory in the 11/8-mile West Coast prep would solidify Brother Derek's status as the favorite for the May 6 Kentucky Derby.

"The overall plan has always been to get there," Hendricks said. "Luckily, we've been improving and he's doing well. Once we get through Saturday and everything goes well, we'll start planning on from there."

A.P. Warrior, winner of the San Felipe Stakes three weeks ago, drew the No. 1 post and is second choice at 7-2. He's trained by John Shirreffs, who saddled Giacomo to an upset victory in last year's Kentucky Derby.

Point Determined was made the 4-1 third choice and will break from the far outside. Trainer Bob Baffert is seeking a record fifth Santa Anita Derby victory.

Point Determined's sire is Point Given, the 2001 Santa Anita Derby winner who won the Preakness and Belmont that year after finishing fifth to Monarchos in the Kentucky Derby.

Heavy rain hit Santa Anita for the second straight day yesterday. The extended forecast calls for clear skies starting today.

"Track condition is going to play a major part," Baffert said. "Some horses are going to love it, some aren't."

The race also will go a long way toward deciding who stays on or falls off the Triple Crown trail.

"Brother Derek is definitely the best horse I've seen this year," Baffert said. "We're going to find out if we belong. We're hoping to run 1-2-3, be close to him. That will be the telltale sign if we belong in the Kentucky Derby."

Brother Derek's 5-furlong workout in 1:00.20 on Sunday was still being buzzed about three days later.

"It was very amazing," said jockey Alex Solis, who was aboard. "Every week that goes by, he keeps amazing me more and more."

Sacred Light, second to Brother Derek in the Santa Catalina Stakes a month ago, will start in the No. 5 post at early odds of 9-2.

"Although Brother Derek will be the lone speed, at some point you always get pressure in a race," said Aaron Gryder, Sacred Light's jockey. "Whether we catch him or not, it's about this horse moving forward, it's about him learning a little bit more, and I think he's going to do that."

The two long shots are 30-1 Indy Wildcat (No. 4 post) and 50-1 Wildfang (No. 3 post).

 

[Pinababy69]

Brother Derek's 5-furlong workout in 1:00.20 on Sunday was still being buzzed about three days later.

Would you be buzzing about that Mrracetrack? It's a nice work, but buzzing? Was it B or H? I remember picking a maiden winner years ago at Santa Anita who had worked 4 furlongs five days previous to his race in :46B!!!! I thought it was a typo, but checked the form and the program and the track works. It was legit. And he went off at about 25-1, ha ha. Cleaned up that day.

Do you like Brother Derek? I watched his past races and gotta admit he looks pretty damn good, but I'm always looking for someone to beat the favourite. And I guess you know who I'm rooting for in the SA Derby? This one won't be on TV for me.

 

[mrracetrack]

Brother Derek's Workout...

No, Pina... I wouldn't be making any "big deal" over that work... it wasn't even the fastest of the day... A bunch of horses went faster... including Point Determined, with Citibrat the fastest of the morning.

Battle Born 1:00.60 H 17
Bella Bolchina :59.60 H 5
Bound for Seattle 1:03.40 H 46
Brass In Pocket (NZ) 1:00.80 H 19
Brother Derek 1:00.20 B 9
Bullish Yield 1:01.60 H 34
Citibrat :59.00 H 1
Convenient Marquet 1:03.00 H 44
Evaluate (IRE) :59.80 H 6
Four More Years 1:02.00 H 37
Fourstarimage 1:03.40 H 46
Hello Fame :59.20 H 2
Hemet Humor 1:00.80 HG 19
Hickory (CHI) :59.40 H 3
Point Determined :59.80 H 6

I think after the SA Derby it will be a bit easier to consider Brother Derek's chances of winning the KY Derby.

I will also be looking at Point Determined to see how he does. I am starting to like that horse...

Pina... don't you get NBC? The race is being televised on that station...

Television: Saturday, 5-6 p.m. Eastern, NBC

 

[Pinababy69]

Oh really? NBC??? Woo hoo, lol. I know the Wood is on TV....I'm sure I looked it up. My mind's becoming a blur, lol. So they'll both be on then...guess I know what I'm doing Saturday.

Thanks for clarifying the works for me. Okay, so it was breezing, but still... See, that kind of hype gets people all worked up, lol. So you're starting to like Point Determined? I just got this feeling, don't know why. But you're absolutely right...gotta see the race first. That's a nice tightening work for Point Determined though, and I loved his last race against A.P. Warrior, he may just start to be coming into his own. I sort of wish that Baffert would get him a different jock though.....can't say I'm a huge Garrett Gomez fan (it is Gomez right?). Well, he starts from the outside this time so no trip excuses. I am looking forward to Saturday!!!

 

[Pinababy69]

Horses To Watch Today

Santa Anita Derby

Brother Derek (Alex Solis) 3-5
A.P. Warrior (Corey Nakatani) 7-2
Point Determined (Rafael Bejarano) 4-1

This will be the best and most interesting race of the day for me, even with only six entrants. A test for Brother Derek to see if he is as good as all the hype. And a chance for me to see if I'm even close to being right about Point Determined. Note the jockey change on Point Determined from Garrett Gomez to Rafael Bejarano, more on this in the next post. Point Determined had a horrible trip in his last race, was stuck down along the rail for the whole race and Gomez tried to take him out and then back in and lost some precious ground. Considering the horse only lost by a narrow margin to A.P. Warrior, it was very costly.

Wood Memorial

Bob and John (Garrett Gomez) 2-1
Keyed Entry (Edgar Prado) 5-2
Deputy Glitters (?) 7-2

Another jockey change here on another Baffert horse. Bob and John loses Victor Espinoza and picks up Garrett Gomez. Not sure I understand this one, but I guess that's why Bob Baffert is a millionaire and I'm not. Bob and John was a beaten favourite in his last race and was taken five wide into the stretch. It's quite possible that Baffert wasn't happy with Espinoza, or he may just be trying to find the right jockey/horse combo for Point Determined and Bob and John.

Illinois Derby

Sweetnorthernsaint - Kent Desormeaux
Cause To Believe - Russell Baze
Racketeer - Patrick Valenzuela

I'm interested in this race only to see how Cause To Believe performs. He was one of my wildcard/longshot horses back in my original posts. If he has a good race, I may be throwing him into the mix on May 6th.

 

[Pinababy69]

Serious Jockey Shortage?

I mentioned in a previous post how sad it was that the racing world lost Pat Day, Jerry Bailey and Gary Stevens all in the same year, all to retirement. And there's no Chris McCarron, Mike Smith or Shane Sellers either, just to name a few. The real impact of this didn't hit me until the last few days when I realized who is left to choose from. Here's my top three of who is still riding.

Edgar Prado - Probably my favourite of the three. Prado is the regular rider of Barbaro, Keyed Entry, First Samurai and Strong Contender....all Derby possibles/probables. He can't ride four horses and is going to have to make a choice and soon. Three of these horses are going to need another jockey, and as you read on, you'll see there's not alot left to choose from. Prado rides Keyed Entry today in the Wood and dependent on that one's performance, I think he'll be choosing between him and Barbaro. I have a pretty strong feeling that he'll be going with Barbaro, barring any unforeseen injuries/scratches, etc. In any event, he's taken.

Alex Solis - Always loved this guy, superb jockey. But he is the regular rider of Brother Derek and there is no way he's giving up this mount unless some catastrophe occurs.

Corey Nakatani - He is the regular rider of A.P. Warrior, and again unless A.P. Warrior scratches, he's taken. Funnily enough, although Nakatani is one of the all-time leading/high profile riders, I've never cared for him. He gets results, but he's never been one of my faves. The only exception was his win on Lit de Justice in the 1996 Breeders Cup Sprint here at Woodbine. That was what I consider to be one of the most brilliant rides by any jockey I have ever seen.

So what does that leave us with? In no particular order these are the jockeys that I personally consider to be the best of who's left -

Kent Desormeaux - riding Sweetnorthernsaint today in the Illinois Derby. If this horse doesn't make it to the Kentucky Derby, Desormeaux may become available, and if I were a trainer, I'd be snapping him up. Hello Bob Baffert, are you listening?

Victor Espinoza - was the regular rider on Bob and John, but Bob Baffert has removed him and replaced him with Garrett Gomez for today's Wood Memorial. Bob and John was one of my early choices, but not with Garrett Gomez in the irons. Whatcha doin Baffert?

Jeremy Rose - is the regular rider of Great Point, who is a possible for the Derby, and I stress possible. I'm not sure where he is running next, but dependent on that race Rose may be available come Derby day. This kid is brilliant, absolutely an outstanding jockey and has been since his apprentice year. I'd be down on my knees begging him to ride my horse if I had one. And Mr. Baffert, young Jeremy would look awesome on Point Determined.

John Velazquez - is the regular rider of Bluegrass Cat, another Derby possible, although I don't see him making it there. If Velazquez becomes available he will be snapped up pretty quickly I'm sure.

Patrick Valenzuela - is riding Racketeer today in the Illinois Derby. I highly doubt that Racketeer will make it to Louisville though, so Valenzuela may be free. Despite his highly publicized and sad battle with cocaine addiction (and multiple suspensions), you can't ignore his natural talent and I'd be willing to take a chance on him if I were a trainer....and pray that he can keep his nose clean (pun intended).

I was going to add Jorge Chavez to the list here, but am not even sure if he's still riding or not? Maybe Mrracetrack would know? Another very good and capable jockey IMO.

So with a possible twenty horses starting in the Derby, you can see there is a serious jockey shortage. Lots of jockeys out there, but not with the kind of experience and capabilities and nerve that this race requires. Not in my opinion anyway. The Kentucky Derby is a jockey's race, just as much as it is a horse race. I would hate to be a trainer right now with a horse headed to the Derby, unless you've got one of the top three committed to you. I'd really hate to be the trainer of the three "other" horses that Prado will have to decline the ride on. They are going to be left scrambling when he makes his final decision. And as much as I like and respect Bob Baffert, I cannot figure out his strategy. He has replaced Garrett Gomez with Rafael Bejarano on Point Determined for today's race. Both of them are regular riders for him, but with Victor Espinoza available, why not use him instead? And why did he remove Espinoza as the rider for Bob and John to begin with? And replace him with Garrett Gomez? Espinoza is Baffert's top rider, shouldn't he be on at least one of Baffert's horses today? I don't get it. Anyway, just some more points to ponder..and some more variables to consider in picking a horse. My final choice will certainly be influenced by who the rider will be.

I'm praying that young Jeremy becomes available for the race, and that some trainer sees the value in having him ride. What he pulled off in last year's Preakness aboard Afleet Alex should prove his worth to any trainer.

Mrracetrack, I'd be interested to see if you agree with me about the jockey situation this year....and if you have anyone else that I've maybe overlooked who should be added onto the list of top remaining jockeys? I'm sure there must be at least one or two, and I bet you have some favourites that I haven't even thought of. Looking forward to any comments you may have.

 

[Pinababy69]

Eating My Words

I'll comment more later on the actual races themselves....but I think I owe Garrett Gomez an apology. Masterful ride today on Bob and John (and on Too Much Bling in the Bayshore). Bob and John won the Wood Memorial (woo hoo, one of my early picks). Gomez sat just off of Keyed Entry (the favourite) for the majority of the race and timed his move perfectly. Very nice ride indeed. Still not the same as riding in a 20 horse field, but nice nonetheless. I guess the Silver Fox (Baffert) knows what he's doing after all eh? His horses only made close to a million dollars today, standard day for Bob.

One interesting note.....Baffert chose to go to Aqueduct for the Wood (and the Bayshore) as opposed to staying home for the Santa Anita Derby where Point Determined was running. There's probably a message in there somewhere, lol.

 

[mrracetrack]

Wood Memorial... Santa Anita Derby... and Jockeys...

Pina... that was a GREAT post about the jockeys... interesting to read... well thought out... and very insightful... NICE JOB!! :notworthy

There isn't a thing I could possibly add to that... you pretty much covered it all... (and I totally agree with what you stated)

But I can comment on today's races...

The Wood Memorial... Bob and John... VERY impressive... stalked... challenged... took the lead and drew off. Certainly raised his stock today.
His chances in the Derby will improve if it's an off track at Churchill on Derby Day. The only concern I see for him is he will need to avoid traffic in the Derby.

Keyed Entry... a disappointing race for him. Prado didn't even try to save second, as he got nailed at the wire by the fast closing Jazil.

The Santa Anita Derby... Brother Derek... much the best today. Since he was never challenged in the race... it's hard to get a good read on just how good he may be.

Point Determined... no match for the winner... but clearly second best. Should like the added distance in the KY Derby.

A.P. Warrior... good trip... had nothing when it mattered. A disappointment. Can't see him doing a thing if he races in the Derby.

The Illinois Derby... Sweetnorthernsaint... Impressive win... but he didn't really beat much... and the Illinois Derby isn't known as a "springboard" to the KY Derby. None of the others in that race did anything to impress me at all. I'll be looking elsewhere for my Derby selection.

 

[mrracetrack]

Blast from the past...

Pina stated:

The only exception was his win on Lit de Justice in the 1996 Breeders Cup Sprint here at Woodbine. That was what I consider to be one of the most brilliant rides by any jockey I have ever seen.

I have that race on tape! (I have the whole card from that day)

That was an amazing stretch run... last to first! I loved the announcers call as Lit de Justice was flying through the stretch... "A GREY BLUR!!"

Here is a link for Lit de Justice...

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

Also very impressive that day in 1996 was Alphabet Soup.

Note to SIMMO... both the above mentioned Breeders Cup Winners were... GREY!!

 

[Pinababy69]

In Total Agreement

Pina... that was a GREAT post about the jockeys... interesting to read... well thought out... and very insightful... NICE JOB!! :notworthy

There isn't a thing I could possibly add to that... you pretty much covered it all... (and I totally agree with what you stated)

Thanks Mrracetrack.

Just a couple of notes....I agree with your comments on Keyed Entry, and even though Prado has come out and said that it's almost for sure he will ride Barbaro in the Derby, I don't think the trainer of Keyed Entry needs to look for a replacement jockey. That horse ain't going 1 1/4 miles. In addition, I don't think that Kent Desormeaux will be available as I'm sure that Sweetnorthernsaint will be heading to the Derby given his win yesterday. Totally agree he beat nothing, but I still think they'll send him. I also think that Corey Nakatani may become available because based on yesterday's performance, A.P. Warrior does not belong in the Derby. And I think that Baffert may just leave Gomez on Bob and John, they seem to fit well together. Which means that IF he sends Point Determined, maybe he'll put Espinoza on him? I can't see him sending him with Bejarano, but hey, I could be wrong.

But I can comment on today's races...

The Wood Memorial... Bob and John... VERY impressive... stalked... challenged... took the lead and drew off. Certainly raised his stock today.
His chances in the Derby will improve if it's an off track at Churchill on Derby Day. The only concern I see for him is he will need to avoid traffic in the Derby.

Keyed Entry... a disappointing race for him. Prado didn't even try to save second, as he got nailed at the wire by the fast closing Jazil.

The Santa Anita Derby... Brother Derek... much the best today. Since he was never challenged in the race... it's hard to get a good read on just how good he may be.

Point Determined... no match for the winner... but clearly second best. Should like the added distance in the KY Derby.

A.P. Warrior... good trip... had nothing when it mattered. A disappointment. Can't see him doing a thing if he races in the Derby.

The Illinois Derby... Sweetnorthernsaint... Impressive win... but he didn't really beat much... and the Illinois Derby isn't known as a "springboard" to the KY Derby. None of the others in that race did anything to impress me at all. I'll be looking elsewhere for my Derby selection

I agree with every single comment you made!!! Most impressed by Bob and John, especially given the fact he was a late foal, and won't even be three until May 17th. He's still learning, and I thought that was a gutsy performance, given the fractions and the track condition. I also liked the fact that he won on a different track than California....shows some versatility. I'm especially happy that this horse was my original early choice back when I first started this thread. Liking him more and more. As for Keyed Entry, I said back then also I didn't think this horse could get the distance and it looks like that is the case. He has neither the running style nor the stamina for the Derby. Now that Jazil....wtf?? Where the hell did he come from? That one could be dangerous come Derby day if there is a hot, contested pace up front.

The Santa Anita Derby.....just like you said. Brother Derek looked like he was on the track for a workout. I hate races like that, I don't think you get a fair rating of ANY of the horses. If you go with him, you burn yourself out....if you let him get away, he 's gone. And besides Point Determined and A.P. Warrior (who looked horrible) what did he beat? A maiden with lifetime earnings of $6,600 and a horse who went to his knees out of the starting gate. I haven't totally given up on Point Determined...there was a few things to like in the race...the fact that he stayed fairly close throughout and that even though clearly beaten, he did not give up. I even thought that he may have quickened in the last 1/16th? Not sure if he actually did or if A.P. Warrior just packed it in totally, but it looked to me like he lengthened his stride. My take on him was that he is green, and he actually may be a bit lazy. Some horses can't wait to run, and some have to be "encouraged", lol. Sure looked to me like Bejarano had to really get into him to get him going. I agree that the extra furlong of the Derby could only help him. And I'm thinking he may like the Belmont even more. I guess we'll see what Baffert decides to do with him. One thing I noticed about Brother Derek is that he seemed to get awfully hot before the race, but when galloping out after, he looked sweat-free? Can't say that I've ever seen that before. And I would have liked to have seen Brother Derek run somewhere besides his home track.

As to the Illinois Derby, you are so right. Sweetnorthernsaint looked very impressive, but beat absolutely nothing while doing it. I guess I can scratch off Cause To Believe who had been my wildcard horse...hoping he may have shown me something, but there was nothing there but a very beaten horse.

I pretty much have my list down to about five horses, I am just waiting for Lawyer Ron to run next weekend so I can see what he does. I can't get that victory in the Rebel out of my mind, but it is a bit reminiscent of the Illinois Derby. He really didn't beat anything. What I do like though is that Lawyer Ron has always been a frontrunner and for that Rebel win, they held him back and brought him from off the pace. A test I'm sure, which he passed with flying colours. That is the style he will have to employ if he does run in the Derby. And he is my sentimental choice, being the son of Langfuhr. My biggest concern is distance.

So I'd say that after next weekend, we should be pretty close to our picks Mrracetrack. Only thing to really watch after that is their workouts, which should never be overlooked (IMO). And I see that Mike Battaglia who sets the morning line odds for Churchill said that Brother Derek will be the morning line favourite with Barbaro second choice. Another reason for me to look for someone to beat him, lol.

 

[Pinababy69]

1996 Breeder's Cup

You have that on tape??? Wow, would I love a copy of that, lol. You gotta agree, that was a masterful ride by Nakatani. He didn't just go last to first by charging up the outside. He wove in and out and in and out, like a reckless driver on the freeway at rush hour. It still stands out in my mind. Thanks for the link to the Lit De Justice page Mrracetrack. What an imposing looking animal he is. You see the muscle in his hindquarters? Did you see his track record at Del Mar......7F in 1:20 Also notable from his win was the fact that he had a female trainer (Jenine Sahadi). Only woman to win a Breeder's Cup race, to this day even (I think)?

And yes, I remember Alphabet Soup also....he beat Cigar that day. I had been hoping that Cigar could win the Classic yet again, but no cigar, lol. That was such a great day here at Woodbine, sure wish they'd bring it back again.

Oh, and Simmo, there was another grey winner yesterday. Baffert's other horse, Too Much Bling, won the Bayshore sprinting 7F in most impressive style. I believe he's actually the top sprinter in the country right now. So grey horses can run, no doubt about it.

 

[mrracetrack]

Arkansas Derby & Bluegrass Stakes...

These are pretty much the last two prep races that matter, as to looking for the Kentucky Derby winner...

Both these races will be televised on ABC at 5:00pm EDT today.

My Picks...

Arkansas Derby... Lawyer Ron... possible upsetter... Steppenwolfer

Bluegrass... Strong Contender... possible upsetter... Storm Treasure



A capsule look at both these races from the Daily Racing Form writers:




Keeneland - Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
By BYRON KING


Little Cliff
Zito has been high on him for quite some time, and while he hasn't yet placed in a stakes race, he has shown steady Beyer improvement; additionally, Zito is on a roll here, this one is drawn on the fence, and horses that last raced at Tampa are 5 for 16 here through Wednesday.

Bluegrass Cat
His stock dropped with a loss in the Tampa Bay Derby to Deputy Glitters, a colt that was subsequently sixth in a sloppy Wood; the thinking here is that race wasn't all that bad; he earned a career-best 99 Beyer, and he reportedly lost a shoe in the race; through Wed., horses that last raced at Tampa are 16-5-1-2 here with a $7.08 ROI - suggesting Tampa form is underrated by the public; choice.

Storm Treasure
Again, horses that last raced at Tampa are 16-5-1-2 this meet with a $7.08 ROI; they tend to be dangerous longshots; Asmussen must really think a great deal of this horse to try the G1 Bluegrass with a N1X eligible runner; Guidry takes over in the irons - Bridgmohan, Asmussen's current go-to jockey, is riding Private Vow Sat. in the Ark Derby.

Strong Contender
A win gives him enough graded earnings to get into the Derby that is likely to be oversubscribed, a 2nd-place finish puts him on the bubble; the sales topper at the Kee 2YOs in training sale last year, he is a gifted horse who has done nothing wrong in two starts; he is giving up considerable experience, however; and remember that his schedule has been interrupted due to missing a start in the Lane's End when excluded due to limited earnings.

First Samurai
The move to traditionally speed-biased Kee should aid this two-time G1 winner - all 6 dirt races Wed were won wire to wire; still have doubts; he didn't accelerate like he should have in the FOY after racing loose on the lead; he was 7-10 odds, and had a perfect trip for the first 6f of the race; he appeared to fight in the late going - but that may have been visually deceptive due to Corinthian playing around once he made the lead.

Court Folly
That third in the Swale looks good - with Sharp Humor, the Swale winner, coming back to finish a close 2nd to Barbaro in the Fla Derby; that noted, this horse has been a come-from-behind sprinter to this point; he faded in his lone start going two turns; prefer those with more route experience.

Sinister Minister
Like that Baffert is running this colt at Kee, a track typically speed biased, and also encouraged that Baffert is reuniting the colt with Gomez; last time this horse an insane pace in NoCal and bounced his way down the rail in the stretch; Cause To Believe, the winner, came back to finish a non-threatening third in the Ill Derby; best hope is that First Samurai is rated - setting him up to grab the lead.

Sadler's Trick
Biancone showed earlier this meet that he isn't afraid to put one in a stakes after a maiden win; Likely won the Lafayette for him impressively after a single maiden win at Turfway; Leparoux was on that one, too; on the downside - his closing style doesn't suit the kee track profile, and his last 2 figs leave something to be desired.

Seaside Retreat
While With A City was able to save ground for much of the Lane's End, this horse had to race at least three or four paths off the rail throughout; but wide trips aren't as costly at TP now that the track has Polytrack; no match for Bluegrass Cat two starts ago; his form in Canada was good at 2 when matched against lesser; those with faith will be offered a price.





Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby (G2)
By JEFF TAYLOR


New Joysey Jeff
Can't blame them for trying as they ship all the way in here in quest of at least part of the seven figure purse; still winless on the main but to their credit, they have not really ducked anyone out there thus far while trying progressively further distances; encouraging, improving yet brief career suffered a setback last time when he saved ground to no avail and failed to fire off one of his belated rallies; they add blinkers for this which probably puts him a little closer early and he did run that 92 fig two back with a clean trip; there is likely to be plenty of traffic problems today but if the equipment change helps, he will pull his weight in the field coupling that stands a chance for part.

Steppenwolfer
Word came down from here where he was stabled back in December prior to that first Louisiana Downs start that this was a talented colt and was headed for great things; a big disappointment that day but he redeemed himself in his first start as a 3-year-old; another step forward in his local debut then came the bouts with Lawyer Ron; almost a draw in the Southwest while a relative outsider but little doubt who was best in the Rebel; his progress has slowed and he is certainly not the 'now' horse that he once was; couple of nice works since his last but just don't know where the needed improvement is going to come from.

High Cotton
Most thought the Rushaway was a better chase going in than the Lane's End and that popular opinion is likely to prove correct; that only means that Turf's premier event was a little soft this year, not that this one's win was particularly impressive; not to take anything away from him, however, as he did what he needed to do in front running fashion and he drew the best of the speed in here which deserves mentioning in this large cast; he still has some room to improve, at least to the lower 90 Beyer level he threw as a juvie and the strip started out the week playing toward speed; Poly imports did not fare very well early in the meeting but there are worse options in here than betting on a wire job from this one.

With a City
Blew up tote with that Lane's End win and it is easy to say now that he should not have gone off close to 50-1; he still has a lot to prove in the Derby hunt as he has seen rather limited success over conventional dirt; just his maiden score as a matter of fact; as discussing 'Cotton's chances, many of those sporting Polytrack form here to begin the meeting did not do well, 0-for-39 to begin the season; he is certainly a useful colt but the novelty of the blinker change is over and his dirt record too sketchy to qualify for a repeat; have to start culling somewhere in this large field and he fails to make the cut.

Lawyer Ron
Even money might be hard to take in a field this large and diverse but it is going to be equally difficult to bet against him; did not look entirely comfortable rating off the pace last time but he did and he left little doubt when he moved on the leaders that the race was for second money; he is plenty tactical enough to outbreak and outrun any traffic trouble early and this beneficial post will help in that department; he is simply too tough an hombre for any one of this group to handle alone so that means it will take a bad trip to beat him; not banking on that happening either and he continues to train like a good one; forget the declining Beyers and bet on THE Derby winner.

Well Said
Continues to make progress and for an instant in the Rebel, it appeared as if he was going to be somebody down the lane; that tepid bid flattened out but his Beyer didn't as he took another step forward; has to deal with all three of those that finished in front of him last time and to cope with this kind of traffic means a real gut check although he is another race seasoned from that last; more natural speed than he showed and today would be a good day to show it as the field is likely to collapse toward the inside past the stands for the first time; one of the more likely in here to move forward so he makes the trifecta list.

Jealous Profit
Graded stakes performer as a baby starts all over in his 3-year-old debut in a maiden race that was scheduled for the grass, not the dirt; all of the sudden he is reborn and is back on the Derby Trail; sounds like something out of a fairy tale and likely is as one six and half furlong sprint is not likely to equip one to go nine furlongs against at least one soph that is definitely top shelf; the four lengths to Brother Derek before the Breeders' Cup last fall looks pretty good but the West Coast fraternity of quality youngsters very small and the ranks even slimmer into this season; will strike the fancy of many but his chances just don't add up.

Private Vow
Close second choice on tote in the Rebel between Ron and Steppen but failed to live up to his advance billing when he came up dead empty in the lane; granted he did not have the best of trips with his jaw broke behind the pace and the traffic; but he just had so very little left; some believe it may have been by design and Asmussen sandbagging a bit with the bigger picture in mind; the 3-year-old game all about what have you done for me lately and this one has likely fell out of favor with many bettors; expect he rebounds and runs at least good enough with his past history to grab a share.

Red Raymond
Went through some trying times late last year after a promising early career that had Holthus thinking he was the best of his 2-year-olds and that group certainly included Ron; has regrouped to a degree this year and while not nearly as flashy as his barnmate, he did run a pretty nice one himself in the Rebel; two solid works between starts and while it might be an abstract concept, he seems to thrive a little on contact and trouble and with his running style, there should be plenty of chances for swapping bumps today; perseveres and gets part once again.

Simon Pure
Van Berg's maiden tried to flatter him off that runner up finish in that maiden tilt but neither one of that one's races here have done that; went too fast in the San Felipe to hang on but if he was the real deal, he would have lasted better than finishing in front of only two; on the other hand, he may only have to outrun Cotton early to clear and there is plenty of room, about three sixteenths of a mile to the first turn, to clear and settle on the rail; the strip has been playing kinder and kinder toward speed of late but keep in mind, McKee and Ron is not going to let anything go unopposed up front; theft possible but want double digits on tote before betting to find out.

Nob Hill Deelite
First venture outside the confines of Cajun-bred company not a bad one as he was forced to wait at a critical juncture of the Rebel; empty when clear for the drive but can see him sitting well of the pace today and making the one run down the lane; the winner has probably checked out by then but that should not prevent him from improving his position enough to pick off a share of the superfecta; another member of the field who could be heard from as their betting position should be considered.

Superfly
Still waiting for him to take that necessary step forward from age two to three if he wants to be a major player; it did not happen at short prices at the Gulf nor did it happen in the Lane's End where he regressed when the real running started after making a modest middle move; he will obviously need to run on today and he simply has not done that; connections dangerous and Willie coming in to ride does make one pause and take notice but he has just not accomplished enough.

Film Fortune
Third member of the mutuel field who somehow remained a maiden after that last effort which only goes to show you that if in this game it looks too good to be true, it often times is; better effort in the Rebel with that troubled start and altered course but similar to the rest of the second flight finishers that day, he was in no danger of catching Ron; not saying that last disappointment is indicative of his true colors but this is an awfully tough spot to try and break your maiden; adds just a little more ammo to the field if you want to use them in the bottom of the gimmicks.

Sayhellotolarry
Continues to make progress, even if the Beyer fell off last time in his first try against winners; rather businesslike in that most recent after a tough trip through the first turn; Borel known for his patience his ability to save some ground so if anyone can salvage this outside post, he should be able to at least do a little; many in here appeared to have reach a plateau but he is riding a good streak right now and offers more hope than most that he can step forward; Borel has a history of winning some of the region's biggest races for 3-year-olds at huge prices, including Rockamundo's stunning $218 win in this race in the 90?s; like him for part and little doubt he will be a much better price.

 

[Pinababy69]

Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (G1)

Even though this is the higher ranked event of the two races today, I think the Arkansas Derby will have more impact on the Kentucky Derby.

Winner - Strong Contender
Longshot - Little Cliff

I like that Little Cliff has picked up Corey Nakatani to ride him, and I don't ever overlook Nick Zito's training capabilities and his ability to have a horse ready for big races. There's a million bucks up for grabs here and Zito is here to get a piece of it.

Interesting sidenote - The #9 horse Seaside Retreat was bred in Kentucky but is Canadian-owned, trained and ridden. Trainer Mark Casse has been the top trainer here at Woodbine many years, and his regular rider Patrick Husbands has made the trip to Keeneland to ride in today's race. They are a lethal combination here in Canada, can't say I know too much about the horse or what impact, if any, they may have on the race. I'll be watching them though. I like the fact that Casse gave his jockey a chance to ride in the race today, rather than going with a home track jock, or trying to get a bigger name to ride him. I'm not a Patrick Husbands fan, but he is a very good jockey when he wants to be...and it's nice to see a Canadian jock get a shot at a big race. We have what I consider to be some world class jockeys up here, but they never seem to get much recognition outside of Canada. Will be fun to watch.

 

[Pinababy69]

Arkansas Derby (G2)

This race has had more impact on the Kentucky Derby than any race in recent years.

2004 Winner - Smarty Jones - went on to win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

2005 Winner - Afleet Alex - went on to finish 3rd in the Derby, win the Preakness and the Belmont.

Also interesting to note is that prior to winning the Arkansas, Smarty Jones won the Southwest Stakes and the Rebel that year....which is the EXACT same route that Lawyer Ron has taken this year, winning both those races also. A win today or at least a very good showing will probably make him my first or second choice in the Derby.

Winner - Lawyer Ron
Longshot - Sayhellotolarry

Longshot first...I doubt this horse can win, but he will be a huge price I'm sure and I would definitely be including him in my exactors and triactors. He has Calvin Borel in the irons and this guy can ride. In a thirteen horse field, half of the race is just staying out of trouble. The horse is also improving somewhat, and I always look for a horse on the move upwards in their form.

Now to Lawyer Ron. I am loving this horse so much, he's already done more than maybe anyone expected of him. He won the Rebel in come from behind fashion, which was something totally new to him. This is a strategy he must get used to if he wants to win the Derby. He looked like he could have run another three furlongs easily that day. His sire Langfuhr was a fixture here at Woodbine, but was a champion sprinter and I'm not sure if he ever won a race at any distance over a mile. So I still wonder if Lawyer Ron can go 1 1/4 miles. Today's race should answer that question, even though it is only 1 1/8 miles. We have to watch how he finishes the race and see how much effort he has to put forth. The other thing that concerns me somewhat is that Lawyer Ron has been very heavily raced thus far for a three-year old, I think 13 or 14 races....that is alot. How much does he have left in the tank? I am really rooting for this one big time, and as Mrracetrack said to me last night, I hope that both of us being high on this horse isn't the Kiss of Death, lol.

Mrracetrack, did you see this BTW?

Oaklawn Workouts

April 8, 2006

Lawyer Ron 5F :59B

How come no one is BUZZING about that workout?

I have to at least give Steppenwolfer a quick mention. Today's race will definitely determine if he is Derby material or not. I have my doubts, but he has Robby Albarado (how did I miss him in my jockey post, outstanding rider) on his back and I never toss out a jockey of his calibre in a race like this. Alot of people think that horses do all the work in a race....not true. A jockey can win or lose a race easily. Best horse has a bad trip....he loses. And Simmo......Steppenwolfer is a grey!!!!

Well, five minutes to race time, gotta go! Mrracetrack, thanks so much for participating in this thread. Without you, I'd be here talking to myself...although that in itself is not unusual.

 

[Pinababy69]

Well Mrracetrack....you are a genius.

Toyota Bluegrass

1. Sinister Minister
2. Storm Treasure
3. Strong Contender

All I can say to this race is......HOLY SHIT!!!!! Sinister Minister? :22, :45.8, 1:09.9....and the horse wins by a dozen lengths? Jesus, that's what we get for overlooking a Bob Baffert horse on a speed-biased track. I was in awe, he reminded me of War Emblem. Note that Mrracetrack did pick the second place horse, Storm Treasure. Exactor paid $601, triactor paid $4,400. Strong Contender did what he could, but there was no one beating Sinister Minister today, most impressive. Baffert even looked sort of shocked. What I absolutely love about this is that this horse will give Brother Derek all he can handle on the front end in the Derby, and then some. Could set it up perfectly.

Arkansas Derby

1. Lawyer Ron (woo fucking hoo!!)
2. Steppenwolfer
3. Private Vow

So Mrracetrack called the exactor cold...wtg!! I am so excited about this race I can hardly type. LAWYER RON IS FOR REAL!!! He broke well out of the gate and sat fifth along the rail heading into the first turn/backstretch. John McKee moved him way early and truthfully I was cursing him wondering what in the hell he was doing. But he obviously knew what he was doing cause once Lawyer Ron got the lead, he never looked back. And he sure didn't look like an extra furlong will be a problem for him. In hindsight, I'm thinking that McKee was worried about being boxed in on the rail with nowhere to go when the time came to run. Whatever his reasoning for taking the lead so early, it worked. The fractions were :23, :46 and 1:10..with the finish time being slower than the Bluegrass, 1:51 I think. Great fractions, bit slow in the finish department, but McKee may have shut him down early. No sense wasting him when it so clearly wasn't needed. And the Derby is gonna be a speed duel upfront, I can see it now. If he can rate just off the frontrunners with a decent position, I love his chances.

So that is six in a row for Lawyer Ron, and his graded earnings winnings should be around 3/4 of a million dollars now. I think I got my Derby horse Mrracetrack, and the fact that Jerry Bailey also picks him, and did so after the Rebel win, makes me feel even more confident about it. Not sure what kind of price we'll get on him. Brother Derek will probably be the favourite, but I see Barbaro and Lawyer Ron taking alot of money as well. I haven't been this excited about a Kentucky Derby in quite a while. It is going to be a strong field of horses this year and the race itself should be awesome.

Sidenote - Did you catch the story about how Lawyer Ron got his name? Every year, there is always some sentimental story that tugs at my heartstrings, lol. The owner of Lawyer Ron, Jim Hines, named his horse after his lifelong friend/lawyer of 39 years, Ron Bamberger. Apparently he did that quite often, named his horses after friends and family. In February of this year Jim Hines died in a freak drowning accident and four days later Lawyer Ron ran in and won the Southwest. Then in March, he ran in the Rebel and won there also. Ron Bamberger was there that day to accept the trophy and winner's cheque on behalf of his friend. There's nothing I would like better than to see him in the winner's circle on May 6th.

Edited to add that prior to the race, the commentators did make mention of Lawyer Ron's workout that I posted in a previous post. They said that the jockeys were talking about it in "reverential" terms, lol. I should hope so, it was an outstanding work, on a track not nearly as fast or speed conducive as Santa Anita/Del Mar. Think I'm going to sign up for Equibase's workout notification....I wanna know when Lawyer Ron works next. I find the workout immediately following a big race can be most telling as to how the horse handled the race.

 

[mrracetrack]

Prep Race Results...

Bluegrass Stakes:

SINISTER MINISTER broke in the air, rushed to the lead after recovering, set a fast pace along the inside, and drew off in the stretch while under brisk left handed pressure. STORM TREASURE bumped with STRONG CONTENDER after the start, was outrun early along the inside, moved around LITTLE CLIFF with three furlongs to go, angled back to the inside and made a solid run to the furlong marker, could not sustain that rally but held on to be second best. STRONG CONTENDER bumped after the start, raced within striking distance inside, moved closest to the pace from the inside after a half, moved off the rail on the second turn and gave way.

Start Good for all but Sinister Minister. Won Driving. Time , :22 4/5, :45 4/5, 1:09 4/5, 1:35 2/5, 1:48 4/5

Sure was an impressive performance by Sinister Minister... And he didn't even break well from the gate!

His 6f time was really fast, and he had plenty left. But...as impressive as that looked... he will NOT get away on an easy and uncontested lead like that in the Derby. But he certainly gained a lot of new supporters from that fine effort today.

Storm Treasure beat everyone else... At 65-1 odds!
He has a running style that could be very beneficial in that long stretch at Churchill Downs.

Arkansas Derby:

LAWYER RON broke in, bumped with foe, in a bit tight in the first turn, accelerated up the inside to outrun that traffic onto the backstretch, rated in the run up the backstretch though some lively fractions, remained clear, turned back a tepid bid from PRIVATE VOW nearing the furlong grounds while drifting in a bit under a steady right handed stick, increased advantage then held the runner up comfortably safe in the late going. STEPPENWOLFER lacked early foot, began a steady advance off the inside the third quarter while emerging from traffic, continued willingly to the finish while well off the inside. PRIVATE VOW prompted the winner up the backstretch, continued to chase through the second turn, lodged a mild bid on that on from the inside when straightened for home, was denied, weakened, caught for the place.

Start Good for all . Won Driving. Time , :23, :46 2/5, 1:10 4/5, 1:37 3/5, 1:51 1/5

Very Impressive win by Lawyer Ron!

Will now be the favorite or co favorite in the Derby.

As Pina mentioned, he rather surprisingly moved for the lead early in the backstretch, but his jockey obviously felt he had the best horse, and wanted clear sailing. A confident ride on a "much the best" horse.

Steppenwolfer rallied very well, and showed a strong closing ability, which will make him one of many who will like the added distance of the Derby.
The biggest concern for all the late closers in the Derby will be position and traffic woes.

I think with today's races, I have 3 horses that I like to win... with 3 more that can be upsetters. I will still need to see post positions, and how the track surface will be on Derby Day.

In other words... I still have "no idea" who I like...