KENTUCKY DERBY 2006 (May 6, 2006)

[mrracetrack]

Pina asked:

You would probably know better than I would (I'd have to look it up), but historically, I don't think that Wood Memorial winners have fared all that well in the Derby, have they?

LOL... I had no idea, Pina... so I was happy to look it up...

This is what I found:

Stats from the Wood Memorial:

11 Wood Memorial winners have won the Kentucky Derby, the most recent being Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000

7 horses that have finished 2nd or 3rd in the Wood Memorial went on to win the KY.Derby.

In 2005, Bellamy Road was a 17 length winner in the Wood, and based on that awesome win, went off as the 5-2 favorite in the KY.Derby, where he tired and finished 7th, to 50-1 long shot Giacomo.

Pina also inquired about:

I'll have to do some research on Point Determined, I know nothing about him, but I hate to overlook another Baffert horse. And does he share any bloodlines with Point Given?

He sure does...

POINT DETERMINED
Owned by... C B Robert B. & Beverly J. Lewis... trained by Bob Baffert... breeding... Point Given-Merengue

[Pinababy69]

Thank you Mrracetrack. That list of rankings is great! I'm disappointed to see Bob and John all the way down there at #11, but am happy to see Barbaro at #4 and Cause To Believe at #6. As you said before though, with so many prep races still to come, the overall picture is likely to change. I still see Brother Derek being the raceday favourite, I'll have to make sure and watch the SA Derby as stats and charts are great, but nothing compares to actually watching a horse run. Maybe I'll hop the private jet to California and see what's what.

And thanks for the stats on the Wood, the winners have actually fared a bit better than what I thought. I'm more likely to be watching who finishes in the top three or four though. I may go and put some data together on the more prestigious of the upcoming prep races, as to which races have produced the most winners etc.

And Point Determined is a son of Point Given? And owned by the Lewises? And trained by Baffert? All that's missing is Gary Stevens (he did ride Point Given didn't he, lol)? And how in the hell did I miss A.P. Warrior? Back to the research lab for me, these two absolutely have to be included in the overall picture.

You know what's sad for me is that there is no Gary Stevens, Pat Day or Jerry Bailey this year. All of them retired in one year. The end of an era for sure. I had just been going to post that it was too bad young Jeremy Rose didn't have a Derby mount this year, and what a shame this was. However, I thought I'd better go take a quick gander and lo and behold, Nick Zito has a horse named Great Point (2nd in the Holy Bull to Barbaro and another son of Point Given!!) possibly pointed towards the Derby, and Jeremy Rose is his jockey. I've been watching that kid for a while now, and he has talent on top of talent. That ride on Afleet Alex last year in the Preakness still amazes me, how the horse stayed on his feet, and how JR stayed on his back defies logic. So many memorable Derby moments, I sure hope that this year's race provides some history as well. Thanks for the input Mrracetrack, keep it coming!!

[mrracetrack]

Who's Hot, Who's Not

WHO'S HOT: There were wholesale changes to the top 25. Although there are only two newcomers - Like Now and Red Raymond - several horses either moved way up or way down because of their performances last weekend. Like Now, the winner of the Gotham Stakes, and Red Raymond, who was second in the Rebel Stakes, are both 50-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper. Lawyer Ron, 20-1 a week ago, is now the second choice at 6-1 following his victory in the Rebel. A. P. Warrior, the San Felipe winner, also made a big move forward. He is now 15-1 after being 60-1 last week.

WHO'S NOT: Corinthian was dropped from the list because of a minor fracture that will force him to miss the rest of the Triple Crown series. Refinery was dropped after a fifth-place finish in the San Felipe. Achilles of Troy, fifth in the Gotham as the favorite, is now 40-1 after being 15-1 last week. Other horses whose prices were raised significantly by Watchmaker following last week's races were Keyed Entry (30-1 from 15-1) and Private Vow (40-1 from 15-1).

ON THE BUBBLE: Greeley's Legacy, who was fourth in the Gotham, and Racketeer, who was fourth in the San Felipe, are the next in line to move onto the list, pending the results of races this weekend in Kentucky and Dubai.

[Pinababy69]

Thanks for the info/update Mrracetrack. I've been working on a few different things this past week, and haven't been able to do the additional research that I wanted to do. But I am off to do that now. I am going to add profiles for three more horses - Point Determined, A.P. Warrior and Great Point (this one just on his breeding alone deserves consideration).

I'm happy to see that some of the horses I discounted at the start, have lived up to my non-expectations (is that a phrase?). While I don't like seeing any horse suffer an injury, I am not sorry to see Corinthian scratched. The last thing we want is an erratic and unpredictable horse running in a big field of 20 or more horses, with 100,000 plus people screaming in the background. Recipe for disaster if you ask me. This race is dangerous enough just given the size of the field, and the jockeying for position that goes on. I'm also not surprised to see Achilles of Troy, Keyed Entry and Private Vow become even bigger longshots. I really think that by a week or two before the race I won't have a problem picking a horse, and perhaps an exotic ticket or two. I hope that you also are going to post your picks. And I had really been hoping that more people may be into this, but so far it looks like you and me, lol. Which is okey dokey too. This is going to be interesting.

[Pinababy69]

A.P. WARRIOR
Sire - A.P. Indy
Dam - Warrior Queen (Quiet American)

TRAINER - John Shirreffs
JOCKEY - Corey Nakatani (Garrett Gomez?)

RECORD - 7(3-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $233,185

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - San Felipe Stakes (G2) 1st (1 1/16 1:42.4)
01/29/06 - El Camino Real (G3) Out of the money

I knew nothing about this horse except that with A.P. Indy as his sire, I wanted to know more. He was apparently an unruly two year old (not all that uncommon in this game), but the general consensus seems to be that he is starting to come into his own and is learning how to run (yes horses have to be taught how to run and to win). I decided to take a look at his win in the San Felipe, and saw things I both liked and disliked. Once he got the lead, he never relinquished it. Point Determined tried to sneak by him on the inside just before the wire, but A.P. Warrior pinned his ears and dug in. This shows some character and determination. The downside of this to me is that the San Felipe was only 1 1/16 miles and I'm not entirely convinced that 1 1/4 miles is within this one's reach. With A.P. Indy as his sire, it shouldn't be a problem, but I wanna see one more. His next start is slated to be the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 8th. I will definitely be watching.

GREAT POINT
Sire - Point Given
Dam - Crafty Queen (Crafty Prospector)

TRAINER - Nick Zito
JOCKEY - Jeremy Rose

RECORD - 6(2-1-0)
GRADED EARNINGS - $30,454

LAST RACES
03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) 10th (last)
02/04/06 - Holy Bull Stakes (G3) 2nd

I am such a huge fan of Point Given, that I simply cannot overlook any of his offspring. So once again, I decided to watch race replays of both the Fountain of Youth and the Holy Bull. All I can say to the Holy Bull is WOW!!! Barbaro was the eventual winner, once he got the lead, he never looked back. But Great Point was at least 20 lengths out and dead last before they hit the final turn for home. I watched the replay three times and I still can't figure out where he even came from. All I know is that when they started moving down the stretch, he was charging like a freight train on the outside. Given another 1/16 of a mile to work with, I am totally convinced he would have won this race. To put things in perspective though, the track was like soup that day, and Great Point had some pretty decent fractions to run at (good contested pace upfront). So I then moved on to the Fountain of Youth replay, where Great Point was 10th and last, and never even got so much as a call in the race. What happened? I have no idea....maybe he bounced (oftentimes happens after a huge effort in a previous race), maybe he didn't feel well that day, maybe the move up in company from a G3 to a G2 was more than he could handle. And the fractions in that race were painfully slow IMO, 23.8, 48.3, 1:12.3, 1:36...with a finishing time of 1:49 flat for the 1 1/8 miles. So he really had nothing to run at, although I feel it's more than that. I can't throw out that Holy Bull performance though, and I'm really hoping to see this once bounce back. I love the Nick Zito/Jeremy Rose angle as well.

POINT DETERMINED
Sire - Point Given
Dam - Merengue (Broad Brush)

TRAINER - Bob Baffert
JOCKEY - Garrett Gomez

RECORD - 5(2-2-1)
GRADED EARNINGS - $50,000

LAST RACES
03/18/06 - San Felipe Stakes (G2) 2nd

Yet another son of Point Given, and Baffert's "other" horse. Point Determined was purchased for the sum of $290,000 as a yearling. He hasn't won at a distance longer than 1 1/16 miles, but given his breeding, this is absolutely not a problem. I watched a replay of the San Felipe (more on that later) where Point Determined finished a very game 2nd to A.P. Warrior. He had post position number one that day and was stuck down along the inside for the whole race (not an optimum place to be dependent on how the track was playing). A.P. Warrior definitely had the advantage with a clean outside trip. Point Determined never gave up though, and once he did manage to find some racing room, he made a bold move along the inside to actually poke a nose in front for a brief moment. However, A.P. Warrior pinned his ears, dug in his heels and regained the advantage. I still have to wonder though had Point Determined had a more advantageous race/starting position, if the outcome may have been different? Very impressive race overall, and I think that added distance can only help this horse in the long run. Watching this one really closely to see how his next race pans out. I was also a little disappointed to see that the Churchill Downs handicapper has not even included this one in his Top 10....I think that's a mistake, but then again, what do I know?

[Pinababy69]

I've been rambling on about Point Given, and I guess it's pretty obvious that he's a favourite of mine. This is his first crop of three year olds running this year, and I am dying with anticipation to see if he is going to be as great a sire as he was a racehorse. This short bio below was taken directly from the Three Chimneys farm website, where Point Given currently stands stud.

The most dominating presence at the races in 2001 was Point Given. Nationally, globally, and historically, he towered over his competitors in the manner of the great ones.

On the racecourse, Point Given was a dual Classic winner, champion 3 year old, and Horse of the Year. He earned $3,968,500 with nine wins and three seconds in 13 career starts.

At 2, he was nosed out for the two year old crown (in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile), but he did win two Graded stakes, including the Hollywood Futurity-G1. At 3, his record of six wins in seven starts in six Grade I races earned him the overall championship.

His Timeform rating that year of 133 was the highest for any American racehorse, and he was awarded the ultimate honor-becoming the 11th three year old to earn the gold Eclipse Award, as Horse of the Year.

Historically, Point Given casts an even more imposing shadow. He won the "Test of Champions," the Classic Belmont Stakes, by over 12 lengths. His time of 2:26 2/5 is the fourth fastest Belmont on record, faster than the last two Triple Crown winners, immortals Affirmed and Seattle Slew, and significantly faster than the last three Belmont winners, Afleet Alex, Birdstone, and Empire Maker.

His feat of winning the Preakness, Belmont, and Travers has been accomplished just four other times in the last 103 years*by Hall of Fame members Man o' War, Whirlaway, Native Dancer and Damascus.

Daily Racing Form's esteemed Joe Hirsch was never prone to hyperbole. Upon the announced retirement of Point Given, he wrote: "We were fortunate to have him as long as we did, and we will treasure the rich memories he left us."

A superior physical specimen with scope, grace and a dominant presence, Point Given is by Classic-winning champion Thunder Gulch, out of Broodmare of the Year Turko's Turn. America's Leading Sire with just three crops racing, Thunder Gulch has emerged as a leading source of Classic horses worldwide.

RACE RECORD

AGE 2

Won
Hollywood Futurity-G1
Kentucky Cup Juvenile-G3

2nd
Breeders' Cup Juvenile-G1
by a nose, to the champion
Champagne S.-G1

AGE 3

Won

Preakness S.-G1
Belmont S.-G1
2:26 2/5, 4th fastest in history
Travers S.-G1
117 Beyer, best of year for 3yo colt
Haskell Invitational H.-G1
Santa Anita Derby-G1
San Felipe S.-G1


Sadly, he was retired after his three year old season due to a tendon injury. In his career, he had 13 starts and finished first 9 times and second 3 times, accumulating total earnings of $3,968,500. The one race he couldn't win was the Kentucky Derby. There's no telling what he could have done if he had been able to continue racing. My thoughts are that he would have been remembered as one of the truly great ones (in my mind he is anyway, lol). Can ya tell?

Point Given was trained by Bob Baffert, and Point Given's son Point Determined is also trained by Bob Baffert this year. I would love nothing better than to see his son go on and accomplish what he wasn't able to do. Fate maybe?

[mrracetrack]

These are the current odds offered by Pinnacle Sports (as of 3/28/06)

Kentucky Derby
Odds To Win
Sat May 6th

101 First Samurai +1498
102 Bluegrass Cat +1833
103 Brother Derek +810
104 Barbaro +1653
105 Achilles of Troy +3019
106 Private Vow +4065
107 Keyed Entry +1749
108 Lawyer Ron +917
109 Bob And John +1819
112 Sweetnorthernsaint +2614
114 Point Determined +2068
116 Strong Contender +1292
117 Great Point +5000
118 Music School +10000
119 A.P. Warrior +1157
121 Flashy Bull +6000
122 Itsallboutthechase +10000
123 My Golden Song +6500
124 Noonmark +10000
125 Steppenwolfer +4249
127 High Cotton +6000
129 Tatsuji +12500
134 Really Indian +9000
136 Dr. Pleasure +10000
137 Sacred Light +2339
138 Sunriver +3003
139 Cause To Believe +2436
140 Discreet Cat +711
141 Showing Up +2568
142 Deputy Glitters +5000
143 Like Now +6000
144 With a City +2814
145 Seaside Retreat +4109

[Pinababy69]

So...as of now, their top three are Discreet Cat, Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron. I sort of figured the last two would be there....did Discreet Cat do something over the weekend I don't know about? I know there were some prep races over the weekend, and I haven't had one second to look up what happened in them, guess I'll have to get on that.

Nice to see that Point Determined and Great Point are at least included in that list, keep my hopes alive. And Bob and John's next race will tell the tale for me.

Mrracetrack, I'll be back later with some links to some video feeds....not sure if you saw Lawyer Ron's performance in the Rebel? If not, I sure would appreciate you watching it and letting me know if you see the same things I see in him. I gotta dig up the link to it....

Thanks for the odds, a good start. And to the people who thanked me/added rep........thanks!!!

[Simmo!]

Might have to keep my eye on this one. I used to "do the horses" (smalltime) back in the mid-90s when i took a year out. A horse called Ballasecret was my fave...they'd feed it up, let it wobble home, then send it flying in at a low weight in the next handicap at 40-1 If you could predict when they hid its feed, you could be quids in. Thinking about it, it may have been the world's first bullemic horse. Ah well...long gone along with my wad.

It was also the era of "Lochsong" - a horse that was just incredible to watch over 6f (or was it 5f?). Frankie Dettori just had to mount it (in a nice way!)...could have had his tea and a sandwich while he was up there for all he had to do. Not that he'd have had time mind! It just lifted off the ground and romped away with every Group 1 going. I'm sure it either had wheels attached to the underbelly or was a new breed of "hover-horse"!

Ah well...May 6th...its in my diary

Oh and here's a tip I learned from bad experience: never back a grey! Its more likely an old van they forgot to paint (so especially dont back it over fences!).

[mrracetrack]

Simmo posted:

Oh and here's a tip I learned from bad experience: never back a grey! Its more likely an old van they forgot to paint (so especially dont back it over fences!).

Don't tell that to the people that owned Kentucky Derby Winner Spectacular Bid...

SPECTACULAR BID (USA) grey. H, 30 Starts, 26 Wins, 2 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: $2,781,608

And for Pina... a "Canadian Grey"... ADMIRALS EXPRESS... who has won more than $1,000,000... and has 60 wins in his career! (most at Woodbine & Mohawk raceways)



Here is a link to an "ALL GREY HORSE" website...

http://the_greystable.tripod.com/id14.html