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I have previously posted elsewhere basic figures (from my own gameplay) to illustrate if I believe a particular software to be playing a ‘fair’ game of Blackjack.
I use the word ‘fair’ because I have merely sought to show that the results obtained from the gaming session in question are in line with the basic results expected ie: 47.49% wins to 52.51% losses (ignoring pushes) in an 8 deck game, dealer stands on all 17.
I guess one would expect, over the fullness of time, a personal average to move, and stay closer to, these figures.
‘Fair’ however may not mean that other areas of the game operate within accepted statistics and with this in mind and the frequently appearing subject of wins vesus stakes I would like to present my latest set of statistics.
These are the sum of consecutive sessions played recently with just one casino operating with CryptoLogic (WagerLogic) software.
Total hands played with a result (ie:excl pushes) = 22158
Won = 10548 = 47.60%
Lost = 11610 = 52.40%
Doubles and splits total = 2530
(excl splits where one hand wins the other loses – considered as a push)
Doubles won = 1470 = 58.10%
All in all a ‘fair’ set of results
Now the subject of staking. Frequently posts include ‘why do I always seem to hit losers when I increase my stake from X to Y and so on’ etc etc and the assumptions always seem to be made (with little or no statistical evidence) that the software has some switch mechanism or other to recognise stakes.
All my casino play is at either minimum stakes or 50x minimum, in this case all play for the results above was either at £1 or £50 (no other stakes).
These then are the resulting stats for minimum, maximum staked hands, BJ occurrences and doubles/splits as follows:
Hands played at min stakes = 12876 (58.11% of hands played)
Of the 12876 hands played at min stakes those won were 6087 = 47.27%
Hands played at max stakes = 9282 (41.89% of hands played)
Of the 9282 hands played at max stakes those won were 4461 = 48.06%
‘Fair’, in fact a higher percentage of hands played at maximum stakes were won.
Total winning Blackjacks = 1144 (above expectation)
Winning Blackjacks occurring at min stakes = 645 = 56.38%
(58.11% of all hands played were at minimum stakes)
Winning Blackjacks occurring at max stakes = 499 = 43.62%
(41.89% of all hands played were at maximum stakes)
= given the split of min/max stake hands played was 58.11% to 41.89% the distribution of Blackjacks, if anything, could be seen as weighted in favour of maximum stake hands.
Total doubles and splits at min stakes = 1462 (57.79% of all doubles/splits)
Of the 1462 doubles/splits played at min stakes those won were 825 = 56.43%
(Lost = 637)
Total doubles and splits at max stakes = 1068 (42.21% of all doubles/splits)
Of the 1068 doubles/splits played at max stakes those won were 645 = 60.39%
(Lost = 423)
The distribution of doubles/splits to min and max staked hands, 57.79%/42.21% is very close to the distribution of hands played at min and max stakes, 58.11%/41.89% = ‘fair’.
The larger percentage of doubles won at max stakes compared to those at min, if anything, suggests a weighting in favour of maximum stake hands.
I won’t go in to why the Max/Min stakes, BJ and DD/SS distribution ‘seems’ weighted in favour of the player – but clearly there is NO evidence to suggest any advantage to the casino.
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Originally Posted by Vesuvio
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