A CHALLENGE to Cipher and Bethug (merged with Seanjohn's "apology" thread)

[BigRed]

Well, I'm new to this board and just stumbled onto this thread.
I'm a long time poker player and recently started playing casino games.

All these games are negative expectation games and if you play long enough YOU WILL LOSE. No exceptions here. If the house edge is X% and you play you will lose X% over time. It doesn't matter if you do as it seems bethug is suggesting to hit and run tables making a few wins and quiting while ahead. It is all one long session. It does not matter if you play 1000 hands in one session or 10 sessions of 100 hands each.

However, I do believe that you can win at casinos. I've made 3800 since Oct 3rd by using casino bonuses. If you can be discplined you can make money. Different types take different strategies of course, whether the bonus is sticky or not, if it is returned to your account after a withdrawl, etc..
Exploiting bonuses, in my opinion, is the only way to win over time at an online casino.

I do agree that if Cipher has a program that can recognize patterns, or calculate when the standard deviation of a given session is outside of normal parameters set by an unfair/biased casino program then it could be exploited. People are greedy and some rogue casinos are out there.

However, anyone who tells you they have a betting system or a new can't lose strategy is being dishonest with you. If they also ask you for money upfront to teach you this system, or to buy this program a big red flag should go up immediately. The fact is no betting system can overcome the house advantage on a fair/unbiased casino game. Period.


Thanks...

[Casinomeister]

First of all, I would like to thank the Casinomeister for extending the courtesy of letting me make one post before my suspension. I hereby take this oppurtunity to apologize to Cipher and Bethug for calling them chickens and whoever else whom I offended.

First of all, I never said that I would allow one post before Seanjohn's suspension as though I was giving him a chance at one last "dig". I had decided to give him another chance, but he blew it. This "apology" doesn't cut it with me beacause it's insincere. Now it's "business as usual" with Seanjohn.

I find this disrespectful to not only me but to the rest of the forum members. If you wish to correspond with Seanjohn, you can resort to email. His posts are no longer welcome here.

[Petunia]

Adding 2cents.
Banning SeanJ is one thing, and I do understand the reasoning behind this.
I would have to say that I cannot find fault with the questions asked, as I think they were mostly valid, but the way they were brought across was ... distasteful.
Now having said that. Two things stand out.
1) When I posted about the Fire-starter not even being here, it was because at the time he was banned from posting, and my thoughts were that he could not participate. Little did I know...
2) I have explained this in a previous thread. There are no absolute random anything online, therefore it is quite possible to create a 'pattern-recognising' software to assist in play. Of course, one would have to have a marginal idea of the house-edge, which I guess is known on average. I do believe a system can be created to beat the casino system. I do however believe that the casino can reverse that, and turn that system on it's ears should it be able to get hold of it. This is my own, personal believe. As I truly believe that any system is only as good as it's creator, and since it cannot grow by itself, and learn without assistance... "We all make mistakes, we are human after all..."

So, there's my 2c, valued only by me and the voices in my head. Use it, loose it, I don't mind.**

[cipher]

Well, I'm new to this board and just stumbled onto this thread.
I'm a long time poker player and recently started playing casino games.

All these games are negative expectation games and if you play long enough YOU WILL LOSE. No exceptions here. If the house edge is X% and you play you will lose X% over time. It doesn't matter if you do as it seems bethug is suggesting to hit and run tables making a few wins and quiting while ahead. It is all one long session. It does not matter if you play 1000 hands in one session or 10 sessions of 100 hands each.

However, I do believe that you can win at casinos. I've made 3800 since Oct 3rd by using casino bonuses. If you can be discplined you can make money. Different types take different strategies of course, whether the bonus is sticky or not, if it is returned to your account after a withdrawl, etc..
Exploiting bonuses, in my opinion, is the only way to win over time at an online casino.

I do agree that if Cipher has a program that can recognize patterns, or calculate when the standard deviation of a given session is outside of normal parameters set by an unfair/biased casino program then it could be exploited. People are greedy and some rogue casinos are out there.

However, anyone who tells you they have a betting system or a new can't lose strategy is being dishonest with you. If they also ask you for money upfront to teach you this system, or to buy this program a big red flag should go up immediately. The fact is no betting system can overcome the house advantage on a fair/unbiased casino game. Period.


Thanks...

Hi Big Red:

I agree with pretty much every thing you stated in your initial post with one exception.

"Anyone who tells you they have a betting system is being dishonest with you."

That's a pretty broad statement. I wonder how in the world I would have ever learned how to count multi-deck Blackjack without having sent Jerry Patterson the money for his course to begin with. Maybe I could have just thought about it for a while and dreamt it up. I know damn good and well the Cipher program would never have been developed had I not sent Jerry Patterson that money and I didn't know him from nobody.

Lastly Red, have you ever heard of such people as Stanford Wong, Kenny Uston or Eddie Olsen, everyone of them contributed greatly to expanding the knowledge of Blackjack players throughout the world. But the funny thing is I can't think of one of those individuals who didn't get paid up front. I think a little bit of common sense needs to be applied in making such statements and/or even decisions of that nature.

Have a good one and welcome to the Forum.

[cipher]

Adding 2cents.
Banning SeanJ is one thing, and I do understand the reasoning behind this.
I would have to say that I cannot find fault with the questions asked, as I think they were mostly valid, but the way they were brought across was ... distasteful.
Now having said that. Two things stand out.
1) When I posted about the Fire-starter not even being here, it was because at the time he was banned from posting, and my thoughts were that he could not participate. Little did I know...
2) I have explained this in a previous thread. There are no absolute random anything online, therefore it is quite possible to create a 'pattern-recognising' software to assist in play. Of course, one would have to have a marginal idea of the house-edge, which I guess is known on average. I do believe a system can be created to beat the casino system. I do however believe that the casino can reverse that, and turn that system on it's ears should it be able to get hold of it. This is my own, personal believe. As I truly believe that any system is only as good as it's creator, and since it cannot grow by itself, and learn without assistance... "We all make mistakes, we are human after all..."

So, there's my 2c, valued only by me and the voices in my head. Use it, loose it, I don't mind.**

Very well stated. Have a good one Petunia.

[Black21Jack]

All these games are negative expectation games and if you play long enough YOU WILL LOSE. No exceptions here. If the house edge is X% and you play you will lose X% over time. It doesn't matter if you do as it seems bethug is suggesting to hit and run tables making a few wins and quiting while ahead. It is all one long session. It does not matter if you play 1000 hands in one session or 10 sessions of 100 hands each.
Thanks...

You are so wrong here especially in what I have put in bold red. I would never reveal what I am doing but I can come right out and say I am beating the house and have not lost. I do not care what anyone has to say about this statement, I don't care if you do not believe me. I would never reveal what I do, nor would I ever offer my information for sale. Many people who have sent me private messages after reading in other threads where I explain that I am winning constantly with no losses know that I will not reveal what I do as I just ignore any and all private communication for information on how I do it. Even if you were to offer me $100000 I would not tell you. I have nothing to gain by making this known except that it pisses me off when I see people make statements like above. I have to bite my tonge, and sometimes I get very tempted to just post what I am doing just to shut people up. I won't do it though and it makes me feel better when I see my balance sheets and then read your comments and I sit back and ....

In fact I was a courier driver and I have decided to lay my self off for a while because I am making three times the monthly income from playing online than my courier business did. What is better than 100% pure profit with no income taxes? (I love Canada!!!)

I have to add that I am beating the house making pure profit with no bonuses ever since day one, I am not cheating in any way, and I am not using any so called glitch in the software. Just had to make it clear so that no one needs to accuse me of anything.

One more thing, for anyone that asks why I would want to explain this in a public forum with the chance of the casino finding out, that is the great thing about the internet, complete anonymity. They have no clue who I am, my screen name, real name or anything. It also helps that I have never explained what I do exactly that would allow the casino to make any changes to the software.

Just had to throw in my two cents

[bpb]

Not to nitpick, but

I have to add that I am beating the house making pure profit with no bonuses ever since day one, I am not cheating in any way, and I am not using any so called glitch in the software.

and

It also helps that I have never explained what I do exactly that would allow the casino to make any changes to the software.

Are completely contradictory statements.

Just had to throw in my 2 cents.

[bethug]

Black21Jack, amen You a smart man

but the haters , that can win or just can believe cause of what some books says. I dont know how many times i here people say u cant buy a house with no money down and i have serval times.

[Black21Jack]

Not to nitpick, but



and



Are completely contradictory statements.

Just had to throw in my 2 cents.

How is it contradictory? What I mean is that I don't say how I play, what casinos I play, who I am, my name and personal details. The casino can't throw any 'switches' in the software, or my account specifically to make it so that I can't win. A lot of my friends are blown away by how I am making money. It almost seems that they are mad that I am successful. It is just like bethug says, they are haters, and these are my friends. Anyways, the point about my friends is that they all say things like 'this money wont last, as soon as the casino decides that you are making too much money from them they will rig it so that you can't win anymore' That was my point above. I have not said what casinos I play, how I play, or who I am for them to be able to do that, if it is possible for them to do it at all.

[Stanford]

Big Red said:

"If the house edge is X% and you play you will lose X% over time. It doesn't matter if you do as it seems bethug is suggesting to hit and run tables making a few wins and quiting while ahead. It is all one long session. It does not matter if you play 1000 hands in one session or 10 sessions of 100 hands each."

Black21Jack said:

You are so wrong here...I can come right out and say I am beating the house and have not lost...I would never reveal what I do.

Response:

Big Red is correct. Your statement indicating positive variance doesn't refute the fundamental math that X*Y=XY. Should you continue to play doing whatever it is you do, your results will approach expectation over time. This is not a subject of debate. It is a statement of fact.

As your result is not from exploiting a glitch or promotions, it doesn't matter what your betting method nor your previous result. Should you reveal such, no software or casino would need to change.

It is importent that players understand there is no way to spin gold from straw. Those that claim to the contrary are either trolls or misinformed.

Stanford.