Nightmare screenshots

[lanidar]

Originally Posted by GrandMaster

The probability of the dealer getting 21 in this situation is 7.36%, just a tiny bit less than having BJ when showing a 10.

But, the dealer was not showing a 10.
He was showing a 7.
Whats the probability of the dealer getting 21 in this situation?

[GrandMaster]

Originally Posted by lanidar

But, the dealer was not showing a 10.
He was showing a 7.
Whats the probability of the dealer getting 21 in this situation?

I calculated the correct probability. If the dealer is showing a 7 and the player has a pair of 8's, the probability of the dealer ending up with 21 is 7.36% in a 4 deck, S17 game.

[lanidar]

Originally Posted by GrandMaster

I calculated the correct probability. If the dealer is showing a 7 and the player has a pair of 8's, the probability of the dealer ending up with 21 is 7.36% in a 4 deck, S17 game.

I realize in that he lost $560 on that hand.
In the same situation what would you do?

[GrandMaster]

I would swear very loudly, maybe punch the computer.

[lanidar]

Originally Posted by GrandMaster

I would swear very loudly, maybe punch the computer.

What I meant was...
If that hand was dealt to you...what would you do?
First, I wouldn't bet my last $280 not knowing what hand I would be dealt.(NATURALLY)
Second, I wouldn't put another $280 in my account and risk a $560 loss.
Though I realize that spliting is the proper thing to do.

But, with $280 in YOUR account and without an infusion of another $280 YOU couldn't split.
Do YOU not split on the 8/8 an take a shot that YOU won't go over 21?
Or would YOU have made the additional deposit?

TALK ABOUT A CATCH 22

[DeMango]

Caruso did the proper thing after the bet was made. There should be no argument. But the proper bet before is to always have enough for doubles and splits.

[lanidar]

Originally Posted by DeMango

Caruso did the proper thing after the bet was made. There should be no argument. But the proper bet before is to always have enough for doubles and splits.

Yes he did do the proper thing by splitting.
I TOTALLY agree with you about the proper bet before is to always have enough for doubles and splits.

[GrandMaster]

Originally Posted by DeMango

Caruso did the proper thing after the bet was made. There should be no argument. But the proper bet before is to always have enough for doubles and splits.

Actually, he should have doubled down on the first hand for a total loss of $840.

I would never bet my whole bankroll on one hand in BJ because of the splits and doubles, but if I did, I would have deposited more money and split the 8's. The expected returns in betting units are 0.32 (split), -0.41 (hit), -0.51 (stand), so splitting is much better than hitting, and it actually has a positive expectation, even if it did not work in this case. To look at it another way, you expect to make 73% profit on the extra money you bet by splitting. I will take a bet with 73% expected profit any day.

[lanidar]

Originally Posted by GrandMaster

Actually, he should have doubled down on the first hand for a total loss of $840.

Actually, you're correct!

[m249a]

I would have split, and doubled too..............then yes I would have punched the computer..................a few times too..........then I would have had a few more beer's, and deposited again, with the false hope of recovering my loses..............cause' hey it CAN'T HAPPEN AGAIN........right???